损人不利己的特朗普贸易政策 | 纽约时报

Trump’s Tough Trade Talk Could Damage American Factories

HOLLAND, Mich. — While much of the American political class has been consumed with recriminations over the wrenching loss of manufacturing jobs, Chuck Reid has been quietly adding them.

密歇根州霍兰德。令人痛苦的制造业岗位流失，多数美国政客搁于相互指责，恰克·雷德却悄然间带来了工作。

His company, , makes recliner seats for movie theaters here at a factory on the shores of Lake Michigan. Since he bought the business three years ago, its work force has grown to 40 from 15.

公司“一流座椅”在密歇根湖畔的一家工厂为当地的影院生产可调式座椅。三年前他买下工厂后，员工从15人增加到40人。

But those jobs will be in jeopardy if President-elect follows through on his combative promises to punish countries he deems guilty of unfair trade.

可如果候任总统唐纳德·特朗普坚持推行战斗性承诺，惩罚他认为从事不公平贸易的国家，这些岗位将危在旦夕。

Mr. Trump secured the White House in part by vowing to bring manufacturing jobs back to American shores. The president-elect has fixed on China as a symbol of nefarious trade practices while threatening to slap  on Chinese imports.

特朗普入主白宫，部分因为他宣布要让制造业岗位回到美国本土。候任总统将中国圈定为不法贸易的象征，威胁对中国进口施加45%的惩罚性关税。

But many existing American manufacturing jobs depend heavily on access to a broad array of goods drawn from a global supply chain — fabrics, chemicals, electronics and other parts. Many of them come from China. At Mr. Reid’s factory, imports account for roughly two-thirds of the cost of making a recliner chair.

但多数美国现存制造业岗位深度依赖于获取全球供给链上的各类产品——纺织品、化学品、电子产品和其他部件，许多产品来自于中国。在雷德先生的工厂中，进口品约占可调式座椅成本的三分之二。

In short, Mr. Trump’s signature trade promise, one ostensibly aimed at protecting American jobs, may well deliver the reverse: It risks making successful American manufacturers more vulnerable by raising their costs. 

简而言之，特朗普背书的贸易承诺，表面上旨在保护美国岗位，实际上可能恰恰相反：提高了成本，那可能让本来成功的美国制造商变得更加脆弱。

It would unleash havoc on the global supply chain, prompting some multinationals to leave the United States and shift manufacturing to countries where they can be assured of buying components at the lowest prices.

那将给全球供给链带来灾难，促使跨国公司离开美国，将制造业转到那些可确保能够以最低价格购买生产部件的国家。

“If you do this tomorrow, you would have a lot of disruption,” said Susan Helper, an economist at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. “The stuff that China now makes and the way they make it, it’s not trivial to replicate that.”

“你明天就开始制造，会有好多掣肘。”克利夫兰凯斯西储大学韦瑟黑德管理学院经济学家苏珊·海尔波说。“中国现在生产的东西和他们生产的方式，想要复制并不简单。”

Mr. Reid takes pride in using American products. His designers here in Michigan dreamed up his sleek recliner. Local hands construct the frames using American-made steel, then affix molded foam from a factory in nearby Grand Rapids.

雷德为使用美国产品而感到骄傲。他在密歇根的设计师们凭空创造出豪华躺椅。当地人工用美国造的钢组装骨架，并用大急流城一家工厂生产的模塑海绵填充起来。

They staple upholstery to hunks of wood harvested by timber operations in Wisconsin. They do all this inside a former heating and cooling equipment factory that shut down a decade ago when the work shifted to Mexico.

他们把座套钉在木头块上，木材是威斯康星州的伐木工采伐的。所有这些都在一个曾是加热冷却设备厂中进行，这家厂子十年前关闭，工作搬到了墨西哥。

But the fabric for Mr. Reid’s seats arrives from China. So do the electronics in the “magic box” that enables moviegoers to control the recliner. Ditto, the plastic cup holders and the bolts and screws that hold the parts together. The motor is the work of a German company that makes it in Hungary, almost certainly using electronics from China.

可雷德座椅的织物来自中国。“魔盒”里的电子设备也来自中国，它可以让看电影的人控制躺椅。此外还有塑料杯架以及将其固定在一起的螺丝和螺帽。马达是一家德国公司在匈牙利生产的，几乎肯定也用到了中国的电子设备。

Mr. Reid estimates that a 45 percent tariff on Chinese wares would raise the costs of making a recliner here by 20 percent.

雷德估计，对中国产品征收45%的关税，可调座椅的成本将提高20%。

Tariffs would give his factory an edge against American competitors that import even more from China. But his company would be vulnerable to competitors in Mexico, Colombia and Australia. They would be free to draw on China’s supply chain and sell their wares into the American market unhindered.

相比其他更多从中国进口材料的对手，关税会让他的工厂具有更大优势，但他的公司却竞争不过墨西哥、哥伦比亚和澳大利亚的对手。他们可以自由地进入中国的供应链条，并畅通无阻地把产品卖到美国市场来。

“Our chair would be priced out of the market,” Mr. Reid said. “If it impacts our sales, that puts jobs at risk.”

“我们的椅子会因价格过高被市场淘汰。如果那影响了销量，岗位也就危险了。”

Trade experts dismiss Mr. Trump’s threat of tariffs as campaign bluster that will soon give way to pragmatic concerns about growth and employment. Between 1998 and 2006, the imported share of components folded into American manufacturing rose to 34 percent from 24 percent, according to .

贸易专家认为特朗普要征收关税不过是竞选时说大话，很快就会从实用主义角度对增长和工作岗位加以考虑。一项广为引用的研究表明，1998年到2006年间，美国制造业进口生产部件的比例从24%上升到34%。

International law also limits the scope of what the Trump administration can do. Under the rules of the , the United States cannot willy-nilly apply tariffs. It must develop cases industry by industry, proving that China is damaging American rivals through unfair practices.

国际法也限制了特朗普政府政策的限度。在世贸组织规则下，美国不能胡乱征收关税。它必须分行业逐步推行，证明中国通过不正当行为损害了美国对手。

Talk of across-the-board tariffs is “pure theater,” said Marc L. Busch, an expert on international trade policy at Georgetown University in Washington. “It’s impossible to do. It violates the rule of law.”

说要全面征收关税是“哗众取宠”，华盛顿乔治敦大学国际贸易政策专家马克·布施说。“这不可能做到，这是违反法治的。”

But Mr. Trump has suggested taking the extraordinary step of abandoning the W.T.O. to gain authority to dictate terms. His successful strong-arming of Carrier, the air-conditioner company, which agreed to  rather than move them to Mexico, attests to his priorities in delivering on his trade promises.

可特朗普提议采取非常规手段抛弃世贸组织，获得强改条款的权力。他强迫空调厂卡里尔同意将1000个岗位留在印第安纳州而不是搬去墨西哥，这印证了他的确优先推行自己的贸易承诺。

The people advising Mr. Trump on trade have records of advocating a pugnacious response to what they portray as Chinese predations.

特朗普的贸易顾问过去大多主张与他们所谓的中国掠夺行为大干一场。

There is , the former chief executive of the American steel giant Nucor, who . There is Peter Navarro, a senior policy adviser and co-author of a book titled “.”

美国钢铁巨头纽柯的前首席执行官丹·狄米科，他一直以来主张对中国商品征收惩罚性关税；还有高级政策顾问彼得·纳瓦罗，他与人合著了《中国之死：战龙——全球行动纲领》。

Mr. Navarro’s co-author, Greg Autry, a professor at the University of Southern California, said he assumed the Trump camp was dead serious about its threats to impose tariffs on China. The goal is to force manufacturers to come back to the United States as a condition of selling into the American market.

另一位合著者南加州大学教授格雷格·奥特里表示，他认为特朗普阵营铁了心，准备对中国征收关税。目标是迫使制造业回到美国，将其作为在美国市场销售的条件之一。

A full-on trade war between the world’s two largest economies would cost American jobs in the immediate term, Mr. Autry said, but eventually millions of new ones would be created as the United States again hummed with factory work.

世界两大经济体之间的全面贸易战会让美国短期内岗位流失，奥特里说，可最终欣欣向荣的美国工业会再次创造数百万个新岗位。

“We moved our supply chain to Asia in about two decades,” he said. “You certainly can do it in the U.S. a whole lot faster. It’s going to take a few years, but it’s going to be a much better America.”

“我们在过去二十年中将供应链移到亚洲，当然也可以搬回来，而且更快。这需要几年时间，可那时候美国会更好。”

Even if factory work does return to the United States, though, that is unlikely to translate into many paychecks. As automation spreads, robots are primed to secure most of the jobs.

即便工厂真回到美国，ougie也难以转化为薪水。随着自动化发展，机器人将接管大部分岗位。

At Mr. Reid’s factory, talk of a bountiful future through trade barriers resonates as dangerous nonsense. Mr. Reid has a business to run in the here and now. His customers are waiting for product. He must be able to tap the supply chain.

在雷德的工厂中，说设立贸易壁垒能带来美好未来，这简直是胡说八道，也很危险。雷德现在就在这里做生意，他的客户们等着产品，他们必须要供应链。

“You can’t just turn your ship around and bring that stuff back,” he said.

“你不能把船掀翻后再把东西拿回来。”

In threatening tariffs, Mr. Trump is wielding a blunt instrument whose impacts are increasingly easy to evade by sophisticated businesses with operations across multiple borders. The geography of global trade is perpetually being redrawn.

特朗普威胁要征收关税，他不过在挥舞一件迟钝的武器，精明的企业在世界各国有生意，他们越来越轻松地规避其影响，一劳永逸地重画全球贸易的版图。

In China, factory owners, casting a wary eye on Mr. Trump, are accelerating their exploration of alternative locales with lower-wage workers across Southeast Asia and even as far away as Africa.

在中国，对特朗普警惕观之的工厂主正加速在工资更低的东南亚甚至更远的非洲寻找替代产地。

In Vietnam, entrepreneurs are preparing for a potential surge of incoming investment from China should Mr. Trump take action.

在越南，一旦特朗普采取了行动，企业家准备迎接汹涌的中国投资潮。

In Europe, factories that sell manufacturing equipment to China are watching to see if Mr. Trump will unleash trade hostilities that will damage global growth.

在欧洲，向中国销售制造业设备的工厂正在观察特朗普是否在贸易领域开战，这将损害全球增长。

“Money and goods will always find their way, regardless of what barriers you put up, ” said Ernesto Maurer, chairman of SSM, a Swiss maker of textile machinery that operates a factory in China. “You just make it more difficult and more expensive.”

“钱和物总能找到出路，无论你建起什么壁垒。”瑞士纺织机械生产商SSM董事长厄内斯托·毛雷尔说，他在中国有一家工厂。“你只能让贸易更困难、更昂贵。”

The China Supply

In the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, Jiang Jiacheng exudes confidence that China will continue to serve as the factory floor for the world — with tariffs or otherwise.

在中国南部城市广东，蒋佳成自信地认为中国仍将是世界车间，征收关税或无论怎么样。

His company, Guangzhou Shuqee Digital Tech Company Ltd., makes movie chairs, exporting about 20 percent of its wares to the United States. It is an exemplar both of China’s manufacturing prowess and of the conditions that make it a competitive threat.

他的广州数祺数字科技有限公司生产电影院座椅，20%出口至美国。这是中国制造业水平的典范，也是让其成为竞争威胁的典范。

Mr. Jiang pays his factory workers $290 a month. They work six days a week. Lax environmental rules allow him to dispose of pollutants cheaply.

蒋给工人每月290美元，每周工作六天，宽松的环保法规下，他可以廉价排污。

The total cost of making one of his best-selling products, a cloth-lined movie chair, runs $72. He sells it for $116 to wholesalers who export to the United States.

衬布电影院座椅是最畅销的产品之一，其生产总成本只有72美元。他以116美元卖给批发商，出口到美国。

Back in September, Mr. Jiang gathered with other Chinese movie chair manufacturers to discuss the alarming statements coming from Mr. Trump. The consensus view was not to worry.

今年九月，蒋佳成和其他中国电影院座椅制造商开会研讨特朗普的警告，他们达成共识，没什么好担心的。

“Once he takes up the post, he will certainly return things to the normal state,” Mr. Jiang said.

“他一旦当政，肯定会回归正常状态。”

Still, he has a backup plan. Even before President Trump entered the lexicon, Mr. Jiang was exploring a transfer of some of his work to lower-cost places like Vietnam.

当然，他也有备用计划。在特朗普总统一词被提及之前，蒋佳成就在谋划将部分生产转移到成本更低的地区，例如越南。

His company would not be the first to make the journey.

他的公司并非第一个选择迁移的。

A dozen years ago, the United States Commerce Department accused China of dumping wooden bedroom furniture at below cost. It imposed protective tariffs.

For Lawrence M. D. Yen, who had a furniture factory in southern China, that was the impetus to move to Vietnam. Labor costs were cheaper.

十多年前，美国商务部指控中国低价倾销木质卧室家具，并征收保护性关税。对于在中国南部有一家家具厂的劳伦斯·延（音）而言，这促进了他转移到越南去。那里的劳工成本更便宜。

Today, Mr. Yen’s company, Woodworth Wooden Industries, operates a factory in Cu Chi, on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, a district best known for the elaborate tunnels used by Vietcong guerrillas in their battles against American forces.

如今，延的公司沃德沃斯木质工业在胡志明市郊外的古芝有一家工厂，这里因精巧的地道闻名，越共游击队在抗击美国军队的战斗中使用这些地道。

This former hive of combat is now the workplace for 5,000 people making sofa beds, recliner chairs and bedroom furniture. Three-fourths of the products are destined for the United States, including Las Vegas casino resorts like Mandalay Bay and the MGM Grand.

曾经的战斗蜂巢如今成为5000名工人工作场所，他们制造沙发床、躺椅和卧室家具。四分之三的产品销往美国，包括拉斯维加斯的赌场曼德勒湾和米高梅金殿。

Woodworth’s plant churns out more than 10,000 three-seater sofas each month. This year, the company opened a second Vietnam factory.

沃德沃斯工厂每月生产超过10000架三人沙发，今年，公司在越南又开了一家工厂。

Arithmetic gives Mr. Yen confidence that Mr. Trump’s talk will be muted by the realities of the marketplace. Brands that deliver factory-made goods to American retailers have leaned heavily on Asian suppliers to secure low prices.

掰指头算算，延很自信，市场现实会让特朗普闭嘴。向美国零售商提供工业品的品牌严重依赖亚洲供应商以压低价格。

In pledging to bring manufacturing back, Mr. Trump is effectively pitting the interests of a relatively small group of people — those who work in factories — against hundreds of millions of consumers.

承诺把制造业搬回来，特朗普实际上照顾了一小部分人的利益，即那些在工厂工作的人，却牺牲了数亿消费者。

“The retail industry now employs an awful lot more people than apparel industries ever did,” said Pietra Rivoli, a trade expert at Georgetown.

“零售业比以前成衣产业雇佣了更多的人。”乔治敦大学贸易专家派特拉·里沃利说。

Seven years ago, the Obama administration accused China of unfairly subsidizing tires. It imposed tariffs reaching 35 percent. A subsequent , a nonpartisan think tank, calculated the effect: Some 1,200 American tire-making jobs were preserved, but American consumers paid $1.1 billion extra for tires. That prompted households to cut spending at retailers, resulting in more than 2,500 net jobs lost.

七年前，奥巴马政府指控中国对轮胎进行不公平补贴，并征收35%的关税。无党派智库彼得森国际经济研究所随后分析表明了效果：保住了大概1200名美国轮胎制造业岗位，美国消费者为此多支付11亿美元。这让家庭减少支出，零售商削减了2500个岗位。

The TAL Group claims to make one of every six dress shirts sold in the United States. It produces finished goods for Brooks Brothers, Banana Republic and J. Crew, operating 11 factories worldwide. If Mr. Trump places tariffs on China, the company will accelerate its shift to Vietnam, said TAL’s chief executive, Roger Lee.

TAL集团号称美国销售的每六件衬衫中一件是他们生产的。公司为布克兄弟、香蕉共和国和J.Crew生产成衣，在全世界有11家工厂。如果特朗普对中国征收关税，公司将加速转移到越南，TAL总裁罗杰·李说。

If that trade is disrupted, the work would flow to other low-cost countries like Bangladesh, India and Indonesia. Mr. Lee can envision no situation in which the physically taxing, monotonous work of making garments will go to the United States.

如果贸易出了问题，他就把工厂搬到孟加拉国、印度和印尼等其他低成本国家。李不能设想费工且单调的制衣业会搬回美国。

“Where are you going to find the work force in the U.S. that is willing to work at factories?” Mr. Lee said.

“你在美国哪儿能找到愿意在工厂里干活的工人？”

Supplying the Suppliers

Horgen, a Swiss village on the shores of Lake Zurich, seems far removed from the gritty industrial zones of Asia. With its gingerbread homes and mountain views, it looks more like a resort.

苏黎世湖畔的瑞士村落霍尔根远离忙碌的亚洲工业区，这里有花哨的房子和山景，看起来更像一个度假胜地。

But Horgen is home to SSM, a company that has become an important supplier to Asia. Its machines turn polyester and other synthetic fibers into custom-designed threads. If the rise of textiles in Asia has been a gold rush, this Swiss company has been among those cashing in by making the picks and shovels.

但霍尔根是SSM的总部，该公司是亚洲的重要供应商。公司生产的机器将聚酯和其他复合纤维制成专为用户设计的线。如果说亚洲纺织业的崛起造就了一座金矿，这家瑞士公司就是那些挥舞镐头和铲子掘金的人。

Workers at the factory earn roughly 6,000 Swiss francs ($5,940) a month — some 10 times what SSM pays its workers at its Chinese factory. It makes its most sophisticated components in Switzerland and at another plant in Italy. It uses China for lower-grade machines.

工厂工人每月约赚6000瑞士法郎，是SSM付给其中国工人薪水的十倍。工厂在瑞士生产精密组件，还有一家工厂在意大利，中国的工厂则生产低端机械。

The company sells virtually all of its products abroad, chiefly in Asia. It buys metal parts from the Czech Republic and Poland, electronic components from Malaysia, and electric motors from an American company that makes them at a factory in India. Another American company supplies software.

公司的产品销往全球，主要在亚洲。公司从捷克和波兰购买金属原件，从马来西亚购买电子原件，从在印度建厂的一家美国公司购买电动马达。还有一家美国公司为其提供软件服务。

“There is not a single machine that we have that we are able to build with materials from one country,” said Mr. Maurer, the SSM chairman.

“没有一个机器，我们能只从一个国家进口材料。”SSM董事长莫雷尔说。

If the United States were to impose trade barriers on China, that might slow Chinese demand for Swiss-made textile machinery. That would potentially reduce Swiss purchases of American goods and services.

如果美国对中国征收关税，中国对瑞士纺织机械的需求将会放缓，这可能削减瑞士购买美国产品和服务。

But Mr. Maurer struggles to see how this would create any jobs in the United States. The American textile industry is small and increasingly dominated by robots. The rest of the world holds billions of hands willing to work cheaply.

但莫雷尔却看不出来这能为美国带来多少岗位。美国的纺织业很小，并越来越多地采用机器人，可世界各国有数十亿双手愿意以更便宜的价格工作。

“Someone else will pick up the business,” Mr. Maurer said. “These markets are very fast.”

“总有人重拾这些生意，这些市场反应很快。”

But the textile and apparel trades are relatively simple businesses. If the cost of making trousers becomes less appealing in China, a room full of sewing machines in Cambodia can quickly be filled with low-wage seamstresses.

可纺织和成衣贸易是相对简单的生意。如果生产裤子的成本太高，在中国失去吸引力，柬埔寨一屋子的缝纫机很快会招来工资低廉的女裁缝。

Industries involving precision machinery are not so easily reassembled somewhere else. An abrupt change to the economics would devastate factories that could not quickly line up alternative suppliers.

涉及精密机器的产业就不易在别处重组了。经济结构的迅速变化会击垮那些没法很快找到替代供应者的工厂。

American automakers are especially dependent on the global supply chain. Between 2000 and 2011, the percentage of imported components that went into exported American-made vehicles grew to 35 percent, from 24 percent, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

美国的汽车制造商特别依赖全球供应链。经合组织统计显示，2000年到2011年间，进口组件的百分比从24%增长到35%，这些组件被用于美国制造的出口汽车。

At EBW Electronics in Holland, Mich., workers in lab coats tend boxy soldering machines as they make circuitry for LED lights that go into cars. It buys tiny parts and slots them into circuit boards, which are sold to major automakers. Some 80 percent of the components are imported from China.

在密歇根州霍兰德EBW电子工厂中，穿着实验袍的工人们擎着盒状焊机，为汽车上的LED灯焊接电路。工厂购买小组件，将之装配在电路板商，然后卖给大汽车生产商，约80%的组件从中国进口。

Even that number fails to capture the degree to which the company — and its 240 workers — depend on unfettered trade.

即便这个数字也不足以显示公司和他的240名员工多么以来不受限制的贸易。

Pat LeBlanc, the chairman, pointed to a nib of metal on a circuit board. The silicon was extracted at a plant in Minnesota, then processed into a thin wafer at another factory in Massachusetts. 

公司董事长帕特·勒布朗指着电路板上的一颗小金属，这块硅材料是明尼苏达工厂提取的，在马萨诸塞州另一家工厂中加工成薄片。

The wafer was shipped to China for testing, cut into pieces at another Chinese factory, and then delivered to the Philippines for a chemical process. Then it went back to China to be put onto a reel that can be inserted into soldering machines here in Michigan.

薄片被运往中国检测，在另一家中国工厂中切成条，并送往菲律宾进行化学处理，然后回到中国绕轴，这样才能插进密歇根州的焊机中。

Four years ago, during his re-election campaign, President Obama  the filing of a World Trade Organization case accusing China of unfairly subsidizing cars and auto parts.

四年前，谋求再次当选总统时，奥巴马提起世贸案，指控中国不正当补贴汽车和汽车配件。

Unions applauded. So did some manufacturing associations. But one offered a caution: The Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association, speaking for 23,000 members that manufactured, distributed and installed auto parts,  the government to recognize “the potential for unintended consequences to a significant sector of the U.S. economy.”

工会鼓掌欢迎，一些制造业联合会也欢迎。但有人发出警告：为23000名生产、分销和装配汽车配件的工人代言的汽车售后业联合会敦促政府认清这将对“美国经济的一个重要部门产生潜在恶果。”

The election came and went. The Obama administration essentially dropped the .

大选过后，奥巴马总统基本放弃了提案。

Mr. Reid, the owner of the theater seating company, could not imagine having to buy everything from American suppliers.

剧院座椅公司所有者雷德不能想象所有东西都从美国供货商处购买。

Buying upholstery domestically would raise his fabric costs as much as 40 percent.

从国内购买椅套将使纺织品成本提高40%。

“All the componentry, all the cords, it all comes from China,” he said. “I don’t know that you could ever get all of that made in the United States. Some of these industries have just been abandoned.”

“所有的原件，一丝一线都来自中国。我不知道怎么可能全买美国造，部分产业已经不存在了。”

He wandered into the paint shop, where a worker was spraying chair backs. He picked up a can of paint and read the label: “Made in the U.S.A., with Global Materials.”

他走进喷漆车间，一名工人正在喷椅背。他拾起一桶油漆，上面写着：“美国生产，材料来自全球”。