特朗普的思想政治课 | 华尔街日报

If President Barack Obama sought to usher America into a postracial era, it is increasingly apparent that President-elect Donald Trump is opening the door to the postideological era.

如果说贝拉克·奥巴马总统要把美国领进后种族主义时代，侯任总统唐纳德·特朗普正打开后意识形态时代的大门，这越发明显。

In fact, it’s nearly impossible to identify a clear ideological bent in the incoming president’s early moves. It’s probably a mistake to try, because the definitions of left and right, liberal and conservative, are being scrambled right before our eyes.

事实上，就其开局的举措而言，你几乎不可能辨识即将就任的总统有什么明显的意识形态倾向。你可能一说就错，左翼或右翼、自由或保守，他把这些定义混成一团推到你眼前。

Some Trump moves so far track with his populist outsider campaign image. Others are moves a conventional conservative could make. Some on his team would have been comfortable picks by any standard-issue Republican; some could as easily have been made by a Democratic president-elect.

目前看来，特朗普有些举措符合竞选阶段的民粹主义局外人形象。另外一些则是传统的保守主义者。团队中有的成员符合共和党标准，有的倒像是民主党候任总统可能做出的选择。

The emerging picture suggests only two safe predictions about the Trump presidency. The first is that there will be a continuing struggle between the populist Donald Trump, who battles the corporate world and its love of free markets above all else, and the more conventionally Republican Donald Trump, who is comfortable with the leaders of that same corporate, free-market-loving world.

这种情形显示，有关特朗普总统的判断只有两条是确切的。第一，民粹主义者特朗普和更传统的共和党人特朗普之间会不断发生冲突，前者与商界和商界热爱的自由市场做殊死斗争，后者则与商界领袖和自由市场相处甚欢。

The second safe prediction is that there are no safe predictions. At a Harvard University postelection conference last week, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio said the president-elect can’t be viewed through traditional “ideological lenses.”

第二个确切的判断是没有什么判断是确切的。上周在哈佛大学选后大会上，特朗普阵营民意调查人Tony Fabrizio说，不能以传统的“意识形态透镜”看候任总统。

“Donald Trump is postideological,” he said. “His movement transcends ideology in a lot of respects.”

“唐纳德·特朗普是后意识形态的，他的举动在许多方面超越了意识形态。”

This also shows why the 2016 presidential election was disruptive in ways that extend well beyond Mr. Trump’s victory, momentous as that event was. We have just witnessed that rarest of things, a realigning election, in which the coalitions and prevailing ideological lines within both political parties have been shaken up and are going to be put back together in new patterns.

这也表明2016年总统大选的破坏性超越了特朗普先生的胜利，后者只是一时性的。我们见证了一次重新整队的选举，这是罕见的，两党中的联盟和盛行的意识形态路线被打散，以新的模式重组。

Mr. Trump won with the votes of blue-collar whites who once were reliably Democratic, and without the votes of many in the business world who once were reliably Republican. 

特朗普赢下蓝领白人的选票，这曾经是民主党的可靠票仓，却丢掉许多曾经支持共和党的商界人士选票。

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2.5 million, but her attempt to bridge the Democrats’ rising liberal wing of Bernie Sanders and the moderate wing still embodied by her husband, Bill Clinton, left everybody a bit dissatisfied. Both parties have to reconsider their ideological and geographical coalitions.

民主党提名人希拉里·克林顿的选民票胜出250万张，但民主党内兴起的伯尼·桑德斯自由派与丈夫比尔·克林顿依然代表的温和派之间出现分歧，她弥合这种分歧的努力令所有人有点失望。两党都不得不重新掂量以意识形态和地域划分的盟友。

This discombobulated terrain is seen in the Trump transition. On the personnel front, it’s easiest to see the populist side of the president-elect in his choice of the antiestablishment firebrand Stephen Bannon to continue serving as a senior counselor.

从特朗普过渡阶段的情况也看得出，传统的领地被打乱了。从选任幕僚看，侯任总统有民粹主义的一面，他提拔反建制的旗帜斯蒂芬·班农继续担任高级顾问。

There have been some other appointments of figures known more for challenging convention than for adhering to it. the unlikely background of tea-party favorite into his new role as director of central intelligence. 

有一些任命挑战传统而非遵循传统。众议员麦克·蓬皮奥将出任中情局局长，出人意料地把茶党背景引入中情局。

Sen. Jeff Sessions, , is a member of the insiders’ club of the U.S. Senate, but on issues such as immigration, he has been more of an outside agitator.

将出任司法部长的参议员杰夫·塞申斯是美国参议院的老人，可在移民等议题上，他更像是外来的搅局者。

Retired Gen. Michael Flynn, the incoming national security adviser, broke with the intelligence mainstream with his outspoken views of Islam.

即将就任的国家安全顾问、退休将军迈克尔·弗林对伊斯兰直言不讳，这和主流情报做派大相径庭。

Other appointments are completely mainstream, and even bipartisan. brings the kind of Wall Street background that presidents of both parties have traditionally favored in that role, and he has a longer history of helping Democrats than of helping Republicans.

其他任命则完全是主流的，甚至还是跨党派的。被提名为财长的史蒂文·努钦拥有华尔街背景，两党总统一般都喜欢用这样的人，而他一直以来都站在民主党一边，而非共和党。

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, picked to be ambassador to the United Nations, and Trump chief of staff Reince Priebus could have fit comfortably into the administration of any of the mainstream Republicans Mr. Trump defeated.

出任美国驻联合国大使的南卡罗来纳州州长尼基·哈雷和特朗普的幕僚长雷恩斯·普雷巴斯和特朗普打败的所有主流共和党人都能打成一片。

Vice President-elect Mike Pence and incoming Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price are traditional ideological conservatives, naturally wary of government power, but incoming  has shown he knows how to take advantage of government power to protect industries in which he has invested.

副总统麦克·彭斯和卫生及公共服务部部长汤姆·普莱斯在意识形态上是传统的保守派，他们提防着政府权力；可商务部长威尔伯·罗斯则表现出，他知道如何利用政府权力保护他投资的产业。

It’s equally hard to find a straight ideological line in early policy moves. The early emphasis on  is entirely in keeping with putting a priority in overturning what conservatives call government overreach. 

早期提出的政策同样很难找到明晰的意识形态路线。特朗普一开始就强调推翻奥巴马医保法案，这符合保守派的重点，推翻政府的过度干涉。

But the move to save jobs in Indiana  to stop plans to move an assembly line to Mexico was a classic use of government power—both through economic incentives and threats of reprisal made explicit in a  shout-out Friday night—to try to dictate decisions in the marketplace.

可劝说卡里尔公司不要把生产线搬到墨西哥以保住印第安纳州的工作岗位，这是典型的运用政府权力代替市场做决定，那些手段既包括经济激励，也包括威胁报复，周五晚间的一条推文扬言如此。

On the foreign-policy front, some conservative national-security thinkers cheer Mr. Trump’s decision to hold a  and thereby shake up decades of American policy protocol . 

在外交领域，一些保守派的国家安全思想家欢迎特朗普与台湾领导人对话的决定，这颠覆了美国数十年来的政策协议，可能会惹恼中国。

But those same conservatives are aghast at the prospect of a cozy Trump relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

可这些保守派不敢相信特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京可能关系密切。

None of this is conventional, but, for Mr. Trump, that may be the point. If there is a discernible Trump ideology, it may be simply to display strength, whether in staring down a corporate chief executive or the Chinese government. 

所有这些都不合常规，可对特朗普而言，这才是关键。如果特朗普有什么可以辨认的意识形态，可能就是秀实力，不管是呛声一家公司总裁还是中国政府。

That doesn’t make Trump world very predictable—which also seems to be how the president-elect likes it.

这让特朗普难以预料，看起来候任总统亦喜欢如此。