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South Korea Elects Moon Jae-in, Who Backs Talks With North, as President

SEOUL, South Korea —  elected Moon Jae-in, a human rights lawyer who favors dialogue with , as president on Tuesday, returning the nation’s liberals to power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness and setting up a potential rift with the United States over the North’s  program.

韩国首尔。周二，支持与朝鲜开展对话的人权律师文在寅当选韩国总统，该国自由派近十年在野后再度掌权，并在朝鲜核武器项目问题上，埋下了与美国的裂痕。

His victory caps a remarkable national drama in which a corruption scandal, mass protests and impeachment  for the first time in almost 60 years, leaving the conservative establishment in disarray and its former leader in jail.

他的胜利成为一场戏剧冲突的尾声，在这场不同寻常的国家大戏中，腐败丑闻、人民抗议和弹劾迫使韩国总统去职，近六十年来，这尚属首次，也让保守主义当权派七零八落，其前领导人身陷囹圄。

Mr. Moon, 64, a son of North Korean refugees, faces the challenge of enacting changes  and address the abuses uncovered in his predecessor’s downfall. He must also make good on his promise of a new approach to North Korea while balancing relations with the United States and China.

64岁的文在寅，一个朝鲜难民的儿子，面临着推动变革的挑战，规制大商团权力并应对因前任落马而暴露的权力滥用。他还必须有所作为，履行其对朝鲜的新策略，同时平衡对美与对华间的关系。

His election also scrambles the geopolitics over North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. Even as the Trump administration urges the world to step up pressure on Pyongyang, it now faces the prospect of a critical ally — one with the most at stake in any conflict with the North — breaking ranks and adopting a more conciliatory approach.

另外，文在寅当选打乱了朝鲜核军备问题的地缘政治。虽说特朗普政府敦促世界进一步对朝鲜施压，华盛顿可能面临一个关键盟友的掉队，它在对朝的任何冲突中都有着最大关切，现在却可能采取更为妥协的方法。

Mr. Moon has argued that Washington’s reliance on sanctions and pressure has been ineffective and that it is time to give engagement and dialogue with the North another chance, an approach favored by China. He has also called for a review of the Pentagon’s  in South Korea that .

文在寅称，华盛顿依赖制裁和施压，一直以来却不见效果，现在是时候给对朝接触和对话一个机会了，中国一直主张如此。他还呼吁重议五角大楼在韩国部署反导弹防御系统，中国一贯对该系统表示谴责。

In a nationally televised speech before cheering supporters, Mr. Moon declared that he would “be a president for all the people.” He said he would work with political rivals to create a country where “justice rules and common sense prevails.”

在国家电视台播送的电视演讲中，文在寅当着欢呼的群众宣布，他将成为“所有人民的总统”。他说会与政治对手一道，创造一个“让正义统治、让常识说话”的国度。

With 92 percent of the ballots counted early Wednesday, Mr. Moon was in first place with 40 percent of the vote, according to the National Election Commission. 

国家选举委员会称，周三早间，92%的选票清点完成，文在寅一马当先，获得40%的选票。

He was followed by Hong Joon-pyo, a conservative who had pledged a tough stance against North Korea, with 25 percent, and Ahn Cheol-soo, a centrist, with 21 percent.

紧随其后的是保守党人士洪准杓，获得25%的选票，他承诺对朝强硬。中间路线者安哲秀获得21%的选票。

Mr. Moon had a larger lead over Mr. Hong than the number of votes that remained uncounted, the Yonhap News Agency reported. Official results were expected later on Wednesday.

韩联社报道，文在寅领先洪准杓比例大于未清点票数。官方结果预计在周三晚些时候公布。

Mr. Moon’s position on North Korea is a sharp departure from that of his two immediate predecessors, conservatives who tended to view anything less than strict enforcement of sanctions against the North as ideologically suspect.

文在寅对朝鲜的立场与前两任总统南辕北辙，保守主义总统们把任何不严厉制裁朝鲜的主张视作在意识形态上令人生疑。

While he condemned “the ruthless dictatorial regime of North Korea” during his campaign, Mr. Moon also argued that South Korea must “embrace the North Korean people to achieve peaceful reunification one day.”

大选期间，文在寅尽管谴责了“朝鲜残暴的独裁体制”，也主张韩国必须“相信朝鲜人民有朝一日可以与韩国实现和平统一。”

“To do that, we must recognize Kim Jong-un as their ruler and as our dialogue partner,” he said. “The goal of sanctions must be to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.”

“为了这个目的，我们必须承认金正恩是他们的统治者，是我们的对话伙伴，”他说。“制裁的目标必须是把朝鲜拉回到谈判桌前来。”

David Straub, a former director of Korean affairs at the State Department and a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a think tank near Seoul, warned of “serious policy differences between the U.S. and South Korean presidents” over North Korea and related issues. He added that these differences could lead to “significantly increased popular dissatisfaction with the United States in South Korea.”

美国国务院半岛问题前主任、位于首尔附近的世宗研究所的高级研究员大卫·斯特劳布警告就朝鲜与相关问题，“美国和韩国总统间可能出现严重的政策分歧。”他还说，这些分歧会“大幅增强韩国民众对美国的不满情绪。”

China, on the other hand, is likely to welcome Mr. Moon’s election, which may make it easier for it to deflect pressure from the United States to get tough on North Korea and strengthen its argument that Washington must address the North’s concerns about security.

另一边，中国可能欢迎文在寅当选，这更易于纾解美国要求其对朝强硬的压力，强化其主张，即华盛顿必须解决朝鲜的安全关切。

Some analysts say Mr. Moon’s victory could lower the temperature of the North Korean standoff, prompting Washington and Pyongyang to pause and assess the effect of the new government in Seoul on their policies. 

有分析者称，文在寅的胜选会朝鲜僵局降温，促使华盛顿和平壤停下来，评估首尔新政府对他们各自政策的影响。

Satellite images indicate that the North , and the Trump administration has engaged in a heated campaign of implied threats and military posturing to stop it.

卫星图像表明，朝鲜一直准备进行第六次核试验，特朗普政府大张旗鼓，摆出作战姿态加以威胁，旨在迫使其停止试验。

Mr. Moon’s view of North Korea echoes the approach of the two liberal presidents who held power from 1998 to 2008 and pursued a so-called sunshine policy toward the North that included diplomatic talks, family reunions and joint economic projects, such as the  in North Korea, near the demilitarized zone.

文在寅对朝鲜的观点与1998年到2008年间两位自由派总统类似，对朝推行所谓阳光政策，包括外交谈判、家人团聚和共建经济项目，例如位于非军事区附近的朝鲜开城工业园。

But that era was punctuated by the North’s first nuclear test, conducted in 2006, and much has changed on the Korean Peninsula since.

但2006年朝鲜第一次核试验后，这格时代被中断了，此后朝鲜半岛局势发生剧变。

With four more tests under its belt, each more powerful than the last, and a rapidly advancing ballistic missile program, North Korea poses a greater threat to the South and appears to be closing in on nuclear arms capable of striking the United States. 

朝鲜又搞了四次的核试验，一次比一次强大，弹道导弹项目也突飞猛进，朝鲜对韩国构成日益严峻的威胁，甚至看起来即将造出能够打击美国的核军备。

Mr. Moon also faces a mercurial adversary in Kim Jong-un, 33, who took power in Pyongyang after the  in late 2011.

文在寅的对手、33岁的金正恩反复无常，2011年底父亲死亡后，他开始在平壤掌权。

Critics say any effort by Mr. Moon to revive the sunshine policy — perhaps by reopening Kaesong, which his disgraced predecessor, ,  — would give North Korea a lifeline it could use to reduce its economic dependence on China, weakening Beijing’s leverage over it and strengthening Mr. Kim’s hand.

批评者称，文在寅恢复阳光政策的任何努力都将给朝鲜一线生机，缓解后者对中国的经济依赖，削弱北京对朝鲜的牵制力，强化金正恩的权力。文在寅可能会重启落马的前任朴槿惠去年关闭的开城工业园。

The American missile defense system, known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, presents another test for Mr. Moon. It  last week, and Mr. Moon has complained that its deployment was rushed to present him with a fait accompli. But if he tries to undo it, he could strain the alliance with Washington while leaving the impression of bowing to Chinese pressure.

美国的导弹防御系统“萨德”是文在寅的另一遭考验。系统上周投入运行，文在寅抱怨说，系统仓促部署已成事实。但如果他试图撤销，会让与华盛顿的联盟变得紧张，给人屈从于中国压力的观感。

That could be politically fatal in South Korea, where the public, across the political spectrum, is wary of the country appearing too deferential to big powers. Many South Koreans complained that the United States had foisted Thaad on their nation, but they also fumed about  in response to its deployment.

这在韩国政治上是致命的，因为持不同政治立场的公众担忧国家让人看起来成为大国的附庸。许多韩国人抱怨说，美国把萨德系统强加给他们，但也对中国因部署系统而施加的报复性经济压力感到火冒三丈。

Acknowledging the complexity of the challenges he faces, Mr. Moon has been careful to say that when he promised to review the Thaad deployment, he did not necessarily mean he would reverse it.

文在寅承认局面的复杂性，他一直小心翼翼地说，承诺重议萨德部署，并不是说一定会拆除它。

And while he has said South Korea must “learn to say no” to Washington, he has emphasized that any diplomatic overture toward North Korea will be grounded in the South’s alliance with the United States. 

他说过韩国要学会向华盛顿“说不”，但也强调对朝鲜的任何外交方案都将基于韩国与美国的联盟关系。

He has also often expressed gratitude to the United States for protecting the South from Communism and supporting its transformation into a prosperous democracy.

他还经常对美国保护韩国免遭共产主义进攻并支持其转型为繁荣的民主国家表达感谢。

Mr. Moon’s parents fled Communist rule during the Korean War and were among tens of thousands  by retreating American Navy vessels in the winter of 1950. They often told him about the Christmas sweets that American troops handed out to those packed into the ships during the journey.

文在寅的父母在韩战期间逃离了共产党统治。1950年冬，他们与数万人一起，搭乘从朝鲜兴南港撤退的美国海军军舰离开。父母常常提到，旅途中美国士兵给挤在船上的人分发圣诞节糖果。

Mr. Moon was born in January 1953, after his parents had resettled in a refugee camp on an island off the southern coast of South Korea. His father was a handyman, and his mother peddled eggs, coal briquettes and black-market American relief goods.

文在寅生于1953年1月，当时父母定居在韩国南部海岸离岛的一所难民营里。父亲是个手艺人，母亲卖点鸡蛋、煤球和黑市上的美国救济品。

Asked by the newspaper Dong-A Ilbo what he would do with a crystal ball, Mr. Moon said last month that he would show his 90-year-old mother what her North Korean hometown looked like now and how her relatives there were faring. “If Korea reunifies, the first thing I would do is to take my mother’s hand and visit her hometown,” he said. “Perhaps I could retire there as a lawyer.”

上个月《东亚日报》记者问他会用水晶球干什么时，文在寅说会让90岁的母亲看看朝鲜老家现在什么样，亲戚们过得如何。“如果朝鲜统一，我第一件事就是拉着母亲的手，去她老家看看，”他说。“或许我会在那里当律师，一直到退休。”

In the 1980s, Mr. Moon defended student and labor activists persecuted under military rule and forged a lifelong friendship with a fellow lawyer, Roh Moo-hyun.

八十年代，文在寅捍卫遭到军政府迫害的学生和工会活动者，与同为律师的卢武铉结下了一生的友谊。

When  in 2002, declaring that he would be the first South Korean president not to “kowtow to the Americans,” Mr. Moon served as his chief of staff.

卢武铉2002年当选总统时，宣布自己是第一个不会“向美国人磕头”的韩国总统，当时文在寅担任幕僚长。

Many of the misgivings that conservatives have about Mr. Moon stem from his association with Mr. Roh. But some former American officials who dealt with the Roh government recall Mr. Moon as more practical and flexible than other officials. 

保守派对文在寅的诸多疑虑出于他和卢武铉的联系。但接触卢武铉政府的一些前美国官员回忆说，文在寅比其他官员更为务实和灵活。

In his memoir, Mr. Moon defended Mr. Roh’s decision to sign a trade agreement with the United States and dispatch troops to Iraq over the protests of Mr. Roh’s liberal political base.

在回忆录中，文在寅捍卫了卢武铉与美国签订贸易协定、顶着其所在自由派政治阵营的抗议发兵伊拉克的决定。

Mr. Roh completed his five-year term in 2008 and  the next year as prosecutors investigated corruption allegations against his family.

卢武铉2008年结束五年任期，翌年在检察官调查其家族腐败指控时自杀。

“It was the most painful day in my life,” Mr. Moon wrote in his memoir, describing his friend’s death as “tantamount to a political murder” and blaming a political vendetta by a new conservative government that wanted to discredit him.

“这是我生命中最痛苦的一天，”文在寅在回忆录中写道。他把朋友之死形容为“相当于一场政治谋杀”，指责新的保守派政府发动政争，意图诋毁他。

Mr. Moon entered the 2012 presidential race vowing to finish Mr. Roh’s work by fighting corruption, the influence of the country’s family-owned conglomerates, and what he called “politically motivated prosecutors” — and by seeking peace with North Korea.

文在寅2012年参加总统竞选，承诺完成卢武铉的工作，手段是反腐，打击该国的家族财团和他所谓“抱有政治目的检察官”的影响力，并寻求与朝鲜的和平。

But he , the daughter of the South Korean military strongman Park Chung-hee, and spent the next four years as a leader of the opposition.

但他惜败于韩国前军事强人朴正熙的女儿朴槿惠，此后四年一直是反对党领袖。

In a recent interview, Mr. Moon recalled how he visited Mr. Roh’s predecessor, Kim Dae-jung, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and architect of the sunshine policy, shortly before Mr. Kim died in 2009.

最近接受的一次采访中，文在寅回忆自己拜访卢武铉的前任、诺贝尔和平奖得主、阳光政策的设计师金大中，后者于2009年去世。

Mr. Kim was so feeble by then that he had to be fed by his wife, and he was heartbroken. He had devoted much of his career to building trust with North Korea through humanitarian and economic aid, and the conservatives in power were dismantling that legacy and embracing sanctions against the North.

当时金大中很虚弱，只能由妻子喂饭，他还很伤心。他一生致力于通过人道主义和经济援助建立与朝鲜的信任关系，可当权的保守派瓦解了那个遗产，选择对朝制裁。

“President Kim said he could not believe his eyes,” Mr. Moon recalled. “In what I thought was his dying wish, he asked us to take the government back.”

“金大中总统说他不敢相信自己的眼睛，”文在寅回忆说。“我认为那是他的遗愿，他让我夺回政府。”

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