中国雄心：再造全球化 | 纽约时报
Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order
VANG VIENG, Laos — Along the jungle-covered mountains of , squads of Chinese engineers are drilling hundreds of tunnels and bridges to support a 260-mile railway, a $6 billion project that will eventually connect eight Asian countries.
老挝万荣。沿老挝丛林密布的山峦，多路中国工程师正在开钻数百个隧道和桥梁，用于铺设260英里的铁路。这是投资60亿美元的项目，最终将8个亚洲国家连接起来。
Chinese money is building power plants in Pakistan to address chronic electricity shortages, part of an expected $46 billion worth of investment.
中国预计在巴基斯坦投资460亿美元，其中部分用于建设该国的电厂，解决长期电力短缺问题。
Chinese planners are mapping out train lines from Budapest to Belgrade, Serbia, providing another artery for Chinese goods flowing into Europe through a Chinese-owned port in Greece.
中国规划者还在设计从布达佩斯到贝尔格莱德的铁路，为中国商品通过其位于希腊的港口进入欧洲提供另一条大干线。
The massive infrastructure projects, along with hundreds of others across Asia, Africa and Europe, form the backbone of ’s ambitious economic and geopolitical agenda.
这些庞大的基础设施项目以及数百个横跨亚洲、非洲和欧洲的项目，构成了中国雄心勃勃的经济和地缘议程的脊梁。
President of China is literally and figuratively forging ties, creating new markets for the country’s construction companies and exporting its model of state-led development in a quest to create deep economic connections and strong diplomatic relationships.
中国国家主席习近平在字面和比喻两个意义上联络四方，为中国的建筑公司开拓新市场，出口中国国家引领发展的模式，谋求建立深层的经济联系和强韧的外交关系。
The initiative, called “One Belt, One Road,” looms on a scope and scale with little precedent in modern history, promising more than $1 trillion in infrastructure and spanning more than 60 countries.
被称为“一带一路”的倡议横空出世，其广度和规模在当代历史上罕有先例，它承诺对基础设施的投资超过1万亿美元，横跨60多个国家。
To celebrate China’s new global influence, Mr. Xi is gathering dozens of state leaders, including President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Beijing on Sunday.
为彰示中国新的全球影响力，包括俄罗斯总统普京在内的数十名国家领导人周日齐聚北京。
It is global commerce on China’s terms.
这是中国版本的全球商业。
Mr. Xi is aiming to use China’s wealth and industrial know-how to create a new kind of globalization that will dispense with the rules of the aging Western-dominated institutions. The goal is to refashion the global economic order, drawing countries and companies more tightly into China’s orbit.
习先生旨在运用中国财富和工业能力创造新的全球化，抛弃西方把持的体系规则，这一体系已经日渐老迈。其目标是再造全球经济秩序，将国家和公司紧密地团结在中国周围。
The projects inherently serve China’s economic interests. With growth slowing at home, China is producing more steel, cement and machinery than the country needs. So Mr. Xi is looking to the rest of the world, particularly developing countries, to keep its economic engine going.
项目说到底都符合中国的经济利益。随着国内经济放缓，中国生产出超过其需求的钢铁、水泥和机械。于是中国放眼全世界，特别是发展中国家，旨在保持其经济引擎继续运转。
“President Xi believes this is a long-term plan that will involve the current and future generations to propel Chinese and global economic growth,” said Cao Wen, director general of the International Cooperation Center of the National Development and Reform Commission. “The plan is to lead the new globalization 2.0.”
“习主席相信，这是一个长期的计划，需要当下和未来数代人推动中国和全球经济增长，”国家发改委国际合作中心主任曹文说。“计划将引领全球化2.0。”
Mr. Xi is rolling out a more audacious version of the , America’s postwar reconstruction effort. Back then, the United States extended vast amounts of aid to secure alliances in Europe. China is deploying hundreds of billions of dollars of state-backed loans in the hope of winning new friends around the world, this time without requiring military obligations.
习先生正在推进一项比马歇尔计划更加大胆的计划，后者指的是美国的战后重建。当时，美国提供了巨大经济援助确保欧洲盟友的安全。中国正筹集数千亿国家贷款，希望在全世界获得新朋友，可这一回并不附带军事义务。
Mr. Xi’s plan stands in stark contrast to President Trump and his “America First” mantra. The Trump administration walked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the American-led trade pact that was envisioned as a buttress against China’s growing influence.
习先生的计划与特朗普总统和他的“美国优先”准则形成鲜明对比。特朗普政府退出跨太平洋伙伴关系，后者是美国领导的贸易协定，曾被看做用来抗衡中国日益扩大的影响力。
“Pursuing is just like locking oneself in a dark room,” Mr. Xi at the World Economic Forum in January.
“施行保护主义就像把自己锁在一个黑屋子里，”习先生在1月的世界经济论坛上对经济界领袖说。
Mr. Xi is promoting global leadership in China’s own image, emphasizing economic efficiency and government intervention. And China is corralling all manner of infrastructure projects under the plan’s broad umbrella, without necessarily ponying up the funds.
习先生正在推进中国自己的全球领导力，强调经济效率和政府干预。中国把各种基础设施项目圈进该计划的大伞之下，不一定先要拿钱。
China is moving so fast and thinking so big that it is willing to make short-term missteps for what it calculates to be long-term gains. Even financially dubious projects in corruption-ridden countries like Pakistan and Kenya make sense for military and diplomatic reasons.
中国走得快，看得远，愿意短期犯几个错，谋求长期得以受益。即便在巴基斯坦和肯尼亚这样腐败横行的国家，投资财务可疑的项目，也自有其军事和外交方面的理由。
The United States and many of its major European and Asian allies have taken a cautious approach to the project, leery of bending to China’s strategic goals. Some, like Australia, have rebuffed Beijing’s requests to sign up for the plan. Despite projects on its turf, India is uneasy because Chinese-built roads will run through disputed territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
美国及其许多主要欧亚盟友小心谨慎，免得屈从于中国的战略目标。有的国家则断然拒绝北京的请求，不支持这一计划，例如澳大利亚。尽管在自己的地盘上修建项目，印度也感到不安，因为中国修建的路将穿过巴控克什米尔的争议领土。
But it is impossible for any foreign leader, multinational executive or international banker to ignore China’s push to remake global trade.
可对任何外国领导人、跨国公司高管或国际银行家而言，他们都无法忽视中国重建全球贸易的努力。
Germany’s minister of economics and energy, Brigitte Zypries, plans to attend the meeting in Beijing. Western industrial giants like General Electric and Siemens are coming, as they look for lucrative contracts and try to stay in China’s good graces.
德国经济和能源部长布里吉特·齐普利斯计划参加北京的会议。通用电气和西门子等西方工业巨头也要来，他们渴望获得利润丰厚的合同，努力得到中国的眷顾。
The Trump administration just upgraded its participation. Originally, it planned to send a Commerce Department official, Eric Branstad, the son of the incoming American ambassador to Beijing, Terry Branstad. Now, , senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, will attend instead — a signal that the White House is enhancing its warm relationship with Mr. Xi by honoring his favorite endeavor with the presence of a top official.
特朗普政府都参与进来了。起初，美国计划让商务部官员、美国下任驻华大使特里·布兰斯塔德的儿子埃里克·布兰斯塔德参会。现在，国安委亚洲区高级主任马修·波廷杰取而代之，这标志着白宫和习先生关系升温，派高级官员出席，给后者最看重的活动捧场。
Influence Via Infrastructure
As the sun beat down on Chinese workers driving bulldozers, four huge tractor-trailers rolled into a storage area here in Vang Vieng, a difficult three-hour drive over potholed roads from the capital, Vientiane. They each carried massive coils of steel wire.
太阳照在开推土机的中国工人身上，四台大型挂车隆隆开进万荣的仓储区，它们从首都万象开来，三个小时艰难车程，一路都是坑坑洼洼的道路。每辆车都装着巨大的钢丝线圈。
Half a mile away, a Chinese cement mixing plant with four bays glistened in the sun. Nearby, along a newly laid road, another Chinese factory was providing cement for tunnel construction.
半英里外，一家有四个厂区的中国水泥搅拌厂在阳光下闪闪发光。附近一条新铺的路上，另外一家中国工厂在为隧道建设供应水泥。
Nearly everything for the Laos project is made in China. Almost all the labor force is Chinese. At the peak of construction, there will be an estimated 100,000 Chinese workers.
这一老挝项目几乎一切都是中国制造的；差不多所有工人都是中国人，建设高峰时期，预计有10万名中国工人。
When Mr. Xi announced the “One Belt, One Road” plan in September 2013, it was clear that Beijing needed to do something for the industries that had succeeded in building China’s new cities, railways and roads — state-led investment that turned it into an economic powerhouse. China did not have a lot left to build, and growth started to sputter.
习先生在2013年9月宣布“一带一路”计划时，很明显中国政府需要为成功建造了中国新的城市、铁路和公路的产业做点事，正是这些国家牵头的投资把中国建成经济强国。当中国没什么要建了，增长就变得噼里啪啦起来。
译注：“一带一路”倡议是习主席在2013年9月和10月分别提出的。
Along with the economic boost, tiny Laos, a landlocked country with six million people, is a linchpin in Beijing’s strategy to chip away at American power in Southeast Asia.
小小的老挝是一个拥有600万人口的陆锁国，在经济推动下，它成为中国政府削弱美国在东南亚实力的关键。
After in January, American influence in the region is seen to be waning. The rail line through Laos would provide a link to countries that China wants to bring firmly into its fold.
特朗普先生1月放弃跨太平洋伙伴关系协定后，美国在该地区的影响力减弱了。穿老挝而过的铁路把中国希望揽入怀中的国家连接起来。
Each nation in Mr. Xi’s plan brings its own strategic advantages.
计划中的每个国家都有自己的战略优势。
The power plants in Pakistan, as well as upgrades to a major highway and a $1 billion port expansion, are a political bulwark. By prompting growth in Pakistan, China wants to blunt the spread of Pakistan’s terrorists across the border into the Xinjiang region, where a restive Muslim population of resides.
巴基斯坦的电厂以及一条主要公路的改造和投资10亿美元扩建港口，这些都是政治大坝。通过促进巴基斯坦的增长，中国希望阻遏巴基斯坦恐怖分子越境进入穆斯林居住的新疆地区。
It has military benefits, providing China’s navy future access to a remote port at Gwadar managed by a state-backed Chinese company with a 40-year contract.
那里还有着军事利益，未来中国海军可以进入由一家中国公司管理的、遥远的瓜达尔港，公司有国家背景，港口租期40年。
Many countries in the program have serious needs. The Asian Development Bank estimated that need $1.7 trillion per year in infrastructure to maintain growth, tackle poverty and respond to climate change.
项目中的许多国家都有真正的需求。亚洲开发银行预计，亚洲新兴经济体每年需要1.7万亿基础设施投资用于保障增长，解决贫困和应对气候变化。
In Kenya, China is upgrading a railway from the port of Mombasa to Nairobi that will make it easier to get Chinese goods into the country. The Kenyan government had been unable to persuade others to do the job, whereas China has been transforming crumbling infrastructure in Africa for more than a decade.
在肯尼亚，中国正在重建从蒙巴萨港到内罗毕的铁路，铁路让中国商品更易打进该国。肯尼亚政府没办法劝别国做这个事，过去十多年来，一直是中国在改造非洲破败的基础设施。
The rail line, which is set to start running next month, is the first to be built to Chinese standards outside China. The country will benefit for years from maintenance contracts.
将于下个月开始运行的蒙内铁路是中国在海外按照中国标准修建的第一条铁路。该国还将享受数年的维修服务。
“China’s Belt and Road initiative is starting to deliver useful infrastructure, bringing new trade routes and better connectivity to Asia and Europe,” said Tom Miller, author of “China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road.” “But Xi will struggle to persuade skeptical countries that the initiative is not a smokescreen for strategic control.”
“中国的‘一带一路’倡议开始提供有用的基础设施，带来新的贸易路线，以及通往亚欧更好的互通互联，”《中国的亚洲梦：沿新丝绸之路建立起来的帝国》一书作者汤姆·米勒说。“但要设法让疑虑重重的国家相信，这个倡议并非其实现战略控制的烟雾弹。”
Calculating the Risks
Although Chinese engineers just started arriving in several months ago, they have started punching three tunnels into mountains that slope down to roiling river water. They are in a race to get as much done as possible before the monsoon rains next month slow down work.
尽管中国工程师几个月前刚刚抵达这个旅游小镇，他们已经在山体上开钻了三口隧道，山向下倾斜，探入翻腾激荡的河水中。他们在抢工期，尽可能在下个月季风雨季到来前多出活，到那时进度就要放缓了。
译注：万荣位于万象和琅勃拉邦之间，是老挝著名的旅游景点，被中国人称为“小桂林”。
It is a fast start to a much-delayed program that may bring only limited benefits to the agrarian country.
搁置很久的项目得以快速启动，可该项目对一个农业国而言好处有限。
For years, Laos and China sparred over financing. With the cost running at nearly $6 billion, officials in Laos wondered how they would afford their share. The country’s output is just $12 billion annually. A feasibility study by a Chinese company said the railway would lose money for the first 11 years.
多年来，老挝和中国就谁出钱争执不休。铁路造价近60亿美元，老挝官员想不明白他们怎么能付得起。这个国家每年的产值只有120亿美元。一家中国公司的可行性研究表明，铁路开始运营的11年内都将亏损。
Such friction is characteristic.
这样的摩擦是典型的。
In Indonesia, construction of a high-speed railway between Jakarta and Bandung finally began last month after arguments over land acquisition. In Thailand, the government is demanding better terms for a vital railway.
在印度尼西亚，因征地争吵日久的雅加达到万隆的高速铁路终于于上个月开工。 在泰国，政府要求一条重要铁路建设中获得更好的条件。
China’s outlays for the plan so far have been modest: Only $50 billion has been spent, an “extremely small” amount relative to China’s domestic investment program, said Nicholas R. Lardy, a China specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
中国迄今为止对这一计划的支出并不算多：只花了500亿美元，相比中国国内的投资规模而言“杯水车薪”，华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所中国专家尼古拉斯·拉迪说。
Even China’s good friends so far are left wanting. Mr. Xi attended a groundbreaking ceremony in 2014 in Tajikistan for a gas pipeline, but the project stalled after Beijing’s demand waned.
就连中国的好朋友也嗷嗷待哺。2014年习先生出席了塔吉克斯坦一天然气管线的奠基，可随着北京需求走弱，该项目也停滞了。
Mr. Putin will be at the center of the Beijing conference. While two companies owned by one of his closest friends, Gennady Timchenko, have benefited from projects, there has not been much else for Russia.
普京是这回北京会议的核心。可除了他最亲密的朋友之一格纳迪·季姆琴科旗下的两家公司外，还没有其他俄国公司受益。
“Russia’s elites’ high expectations regarding Belt and Road have gone through a severe reality check, and now oligarchs and officials are skeptical about practical results,” said Alexander Gabuev, senior associate at the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
“俄罗斯精英对一带一路的殷殷期待遭遇严重的现实困难，如今寡头和官员们都对能产生的实际结果表示怀疑，”莫斯科卡内基中心高级研究院亚历山大·加布耶夫说。
China is making calculations that the benefits will outweigh the risks.
中国盘算着收益将大于风险。
The investments could complicate Beijing’s effort to stem the exodus of capital outflow that have been weighing on the economy. The cost could also come back to haunt China, whose banks are being pressed to lend to projects that they find less than desirable. By some estimates, over half the countries that have accepted Belt and Road projects have credit ratings below investment grade.
可投资将让中国政府阻止资本外流的努力变得复杂，资本外流让经济体承压。成本最终也会让中国头疼，一直以来，其银行被迫向不如人意的项目贷款。有预计称，超过半数一带一路项目的所在国，其信誉评级都低于投资级别。
“A major constraint in investor enthusiasm,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University, “is that many countries in the Central Asian region, where the initial thrust of the initiative is focused, suffer from weak and unstable economies, poor public governance, political stability and corruption.”
“投资者热情的主要限制，”康奈尔大学贸易政策教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德说，“在于许多中亚地区国家经济脆弱且不稳定，公共治理差、政治不稳定，腐败横行，而这正是倡议最初要进军的地方。”
Laos is one of the risky partners. The Communist government is a longstanding friend of China. But fearing China’s domination, Laos is casting around for other friends as well, including China’s regional rivals Japan and Vietnam.
老挝也是充满风险的伙伴之一。老共政府一直以来是中国的朋友，可担心中国独霸，老挝又四处结交，其中包括中国的地区对手日本和越南。
After five years of negotiations over the rail line, Laos finally got a better deal. Laos has an $800 million loan from China’s Export-Import Bank and agreed to form a joint venture with China that will borrow much of the rest.
就铁路线进行了五年谈判后，老挝终于得到了更有利的条件。老挝向中国进出口银行贷款8亿美元，并同意与中国组建合资公司，由公司借到剩下的大部分资金。
Still, Laos faces a huge debt burden. The International Monetary Fund warned this year that the country’s reserves stood at two months of prospective imports of goods and services. It also expressed concerns that public debt could rise to around 70 percent of the economy.
老挝还面临着沉重的债务负担。国际货币基金组织今年提出警告，该国的外汇储备只够未来两个月的货物和服务进口。同时还担忧，公债可能增至经济总量的70%。
As construction gathers steam, nearby communities are starting to rumble.
Farmers are balking at giving up their land. Some members of the national assembly have raised questions about property rights.
建设如火如荼，附近的居民开始抱怨。农民舍不得让出土地，国民大会有些议员对产权也提出质疑。
At Miss Mai’s Noodle Shop here, a customer, Mr. Sipaseuth pondered the project over a glass of icy .
这里有一家“麦小姐的面条店”，一名西巴兔先生的顾客饮着一杯老挝啤酒，一边思忖着这个项目。
In the past, he said, the government had promised $10 for an acre of land worth about $100. “But then they never paid it,” Mr. Sipaseuth added.
他说，过去政府承诺每英亩土地10美元，而实际价值100美元。“可后来也没给，”西巴兔先生说。
Was the rail project good for Laos?
铁路项目对老挝人有利吗？
“We need civilization. Laos is very poor, very underdeveloped,” he said. “But how many Chinese will come here? Too many is not a good idea.”
“我们需要文明，老挝很穷，很不发达，”他说。“但要来多少中国人呢？太多了可不好。”
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