核战朝鲜之红色皇帝（下）| 纽约客
The Kim dynasty began in 1945, after the defeat of Japan. In a hasty redrawing of the map, the Americans and the Soviets divided the Korean Peninsula; in effect, each would control half. The Soviets installed Kim Il Sung, a nationalist guerrilla who had been living in the Soviet Union, as the leader of North Korea. After the humiliations of occupation and war, Kim presented himself as a Marxist emperor of sorts, who would revive Korea’s racial superiority and rebuild the nation as a fortress, impenetrable to imperialists. He restricted the entry of foreigners and curtailed his people’s freedom to leave or dissent. As he aged, Kim Il Sung sought to avoid the havoc that followed the death of Stalin by appointing his son as his successor, in the first hereditary transition in the Communist world.
金家王朝兴于1945年日本战败后。美国人和苏联人仓促重画版图，将朝鲜半岛一分为二。事实上，各控制一半。苏联人扶持金日成为朝鲜领导人，这位民族主义游击队员一直住在苏联。经历占领和战争的屈辱，金日成将自己视作某种信奉马克思主义的皇帝，自己要重新激发朝鲜的民族优越性，重建国家，使这里成为帝国主义无法插手的堡垒。他拒绝外国人入境，剥夺了人民自由离开或持有异见的自由。年老后，金日成任命儿子为接班人，试图避免斯大林死后造成的混乱，这是共产世界中第一次权位世袭。
But Kim Jong Il, who assumed power in 1994, was not a natural demagogue. He was a cinéaste, plump and sedentary, who made his own version of “Godzilla.” (His favorite films also included “Rambo” and “Gone with the Wind.”)
但1994年掌权的金正日并非一个天生的煽动政治家。他身材圆胖，久坐不动，是个电影爱好者，还投拍了自己的《哥斯拉》。（他最喜欢的电影包括《兰博》和《乱世佳人》。）
译注：该电影是《平壤怪兽》。
Kim Jong Il grew isolated and paranoid. He allowed his voice to be heard in public only once, when he said, at a 1992 parade, “Glory be to the heroic soldiers of the Korean People’s Army!” On foreign trips, his aides brought home his feces and urine, to prevent foreign powers from hijacking the waste and evaluating his health.
金正日的童年很孤独，有点偏执。他只有一次公开发言，那是1992年的阅兵时，只说了一句话，“光荣属于朝鲜人民军的英雄士兵！”出访国外时，幕僚们会将他的粪便和尿液都带回国内，避免外国势力劫走屎尿，评价他的健康状况。
He was five feet two inches tall, and insecure about his height. In 1978, he ordered the kidnapping of his favorite South Korean actress, Choi Eun-hee, and greeted her by saying, “Small as a midget’s turd, aren’t I?” (Choi was forced to act in North Korean films until 1986, when, during a trip to Vienna, she escaped.)
他五英尺二英寸高，对自己的身高没有自信。1978年，他命人绑架了他最喜欢的韩国女演员崔银姬，见到她第一句话是，“我像个小侏儒，对不对？”（崔被迫在朝鲜演电影，直到1986年，去维也纳的旅行途中，她逃脱了。）
Jang Jin-sung, a poet and a high-ranking propagandist who defected to South Korea in 2004, told me that, when he was brought to meet Kim Jong Il, an aide instructed him, “Don’t look him in the eye. Look at the second button down from his collar.” Jang went on, “Before you met him, you were given a moist towelette to wash your hands and asked to remove your wristwatch or any metal in case it could do him harm.”
2014年叛逃韩国的高级宣传干部、诗人张进成对我说，他被带去谒见金正日时，一位幕僚告诉他：“不要直视领袖。目光放在他领口第二个纽扣以下，”张继续说，“谒见之前，会给你一块小湿巾，还被要求摘下腕表或任何金属物体，防止对他造成伤害。”
And yet Kim Jong Il came closer than any other North Korean leader to forging peace with the United States and ending his country’s isolation. Madeleine Albright, the only U.S. Secretary of State who has visited Pyongyang, spent more than twelve hours with Kim over two days, in 2000, negotiating the terms of a deal regarding his missile program.
可相比其他朝鲜领袖，金正日几乎要同美国缔造和平，结束该国的孤立地位。2000年，唯一造访过朝鲜的美国国务卿马德琳·奥尔布赖特两天内与金正日相处超过十二个小时，谈判就导弹项目达成协议的条款。
She found him odd—he personally choreographed a dance that was performed for her delegation—but also pragmatic and well informed. When members of the delegation asked highly technical questions, he answered many of them without consulting experts.
她发现他很怪，亲自编舞为她的代表团献艺，却也很务实，见多识广。代表团成员问到许多技术性很强的问题，他没有咨询专家就回答了多数问题。
Wendy Sherman, a diplomat who accompanied Albright on the trip, and later became President Obama’s chief negotiator with Iran, sensed the single-mindedness that has driven North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. “We think in two-year, four-year, six-year time frames. They don’t. They’ve had a long-term vision since Kim Jong Il’s father, and they have stuck with it,” she told me.
随同奥尔布赖特出访的外交官温蒂·谢尔曼后来成为奥巴马总统的伊朗首席谈判官，她当时就感受到驱使朝鲜获取核武器的恒心。“如果我们在两年、四年或六年的框架内思考问题，他们确实无法成功。但自金正日的父亲以来，他们就有个远期愿景，并一直坚持着。”
In the final months of the Clinton Administration, Albright and Sherman believed that Kim was close to accepting a freeze on long-range missile tests. But the disputed election of 2000, and Clinton’s pursuit of a deal in the Middle East, consumed the Administration’s final weeks. They never returned to Pyongyang. Sherman told me, “If our team had gone, and if Kim agreed to our terms, I would have had a date in my pocket on which the President of the United States would have come.”
供职克林顿政府的最后数月中，奥尔布赖特和谢尔曼相信金正日就要接受冻结远程导弹试验了。但2000年争议重重的大选及克林顿在中东谋求达成一项协议，使得政府在最后数周内无所作为，他们没再回到平壤。谢尔曼告诉我，“如果我们团队去了，如果金正日同意了条件，我口袋里应该装着美利坚合众国总统访问朝鲜的日期。”
Once in office, George W. Bush declined to reaffirm a Clinton-era communiqué that pledged “no hostile intent” toward North Korea. Then, in his 2002 State of the Union address, Bush included North Korea, along with Iran and Iraq, in his famous formulation, the “axis of evil.”
乔治·布什一就任，就拒绝承认克林顿时代承诺对朝鲜“不抱有敌意”的公报。随后，在2002年的国情咨文演讲中，布什把朝鲜、伊朗和伊拉克并列为著名的“邪恶轴心”。
The relationship has deteriorated ever since. In 2009, when Clinton visited Kim to secure the release of two imprisoned journalists, Kim lamented that, once Bush came in, “we found ourselves missing the earlier, better relationship with the previous Administration.” According to American notes from the meeting, which were later divulged by WikiLeaks, Kim added, “The United States would have had a new friend in Northeast Asia in a complex world.”
此后关系一路恶化。2009年，克林顿会见金正日，斡旋释放两名被囚记者时，金正日惋惜地说，小布什一来，“我们发现曾经与前任政府的良好关系就消失不见了”。维基解密后来透露了此次会晤的美方笔记，笔记记载金正日说，“在复杂的世界中，美国本该在东北要拥有一位新朋友。”
For all Kim Jong Il’s eccentricity, he cultivated his relationship with America in ways that his son has not. Jerrold Post, who founded the C.I.A.’s psychological-profile unit, and later studied Kim Jong Il’s decision-making, told me, “He always seemed to know the boundaries of his adversaries’ tolerance for provocation. He would go so far, then pull back just in time. He had finely tuned antennae.”
尽管金正日性格古怪，他却同美国建立了良好关系，他的儿子却没有。杰罗德·普斯特创立了中情局心理学描述部，他研究了金正日的决策方式，他对我说，“他看起来总能找到对手对挑衅行为的忍耐边界。他不断前推，又适时撤回来。他的天线很灵敏。”
Post said that he worries that Kim Jong Un has been thrust into a complicated scenario with little time to hone those skills. “His father had two decades in the wings before he formally took over,” Post said. “The son had two years.”
普斯特说，他担心金正恩突入复杂的情境中，没有时间磨炼技巧。“他的父亲正式掌权前旁听了二十年，”普斯特说。“儿子却只有两年。”
There was nothing preordained about which of Kim Jong Il’s children would run the country. Evans Revere, the former Korea expert at the State Department, said that Kim Jong Un became the successor largely on the basis of attitude and aggression. When Kim was a child, he would wear a Soviet military uniform on his birthday.
金正日的哪个儿子会管理国家压根没有事先指定好。国务院前朝鲜专家伊文思·利威尔说，金正恩成为继承者，主要因为他好斗的性格。还是孩子时，他过生日时就穿苏联军装。
The palace staff took to calling him Comrade General. He gave off an “inner strength,” according to Kenji Fujimoto, a Japanese chef who spent part of his time as a playmate for the children. Fujimoto, who later wrote a memoir, entitled “Kim Jong Il’s Chef,” gave the young Kim video games and remote-controlled cars as gifts and, because the boy loved basketball, arranged for his sister to send VHS tapes of Chicago Bulls games.
宫殿里的侍从叫他将军同志。兼职陪小孩儿玩的日本厨师藤本健二说，他表现出一种“内在的力量”。后来撰写了回忆录《金正日的厨师》的藤本送小金电子游戏和遥控车作为礼物，还因为这个男孩爱篮球，安排他的妹妹送来芝加哥公牛队的比赛录像带。
In 1996, Kim joined a brother, Jong Chul, in Bern, Switzerland; they stayed with an aunt. At school there, Kim went by a pseudonym, Pak Un, and was introduced to other students as the son of the North Korean Ambassador. “One day, he said to me, ‘Yeah, I am the son of the leader of North Korea.’ But I didn’t believe him, because it was a normal school,” his classmate João Micaelo recalled, in a television interview.
1996年，金正恩追随哥哥金正哲来到瑞士伯尔尼，两兄弟与一个姨母住在一起。在学校期间，金正恩使用假名朴恩，告诉同学他是朝鲜外交官的儿子。“有一天，他对我说，‘是的，我是朝鲜领袖的儿子’，可我不相信，因为这只是一所普通的学校，”同学约翰·米凯罗接受电视采访时回忆说。
“He was very quiet. He didn’t speak with anyone. Maybe it was because most of the people, they didn’t take the time to understand him. He was competitive at sports. He didn’t like to lose, like every one of us. For him, basketball was everything.”
“他很安静，不和任何人说话。可能因为大多数人不花时间去了解他。他在体育运动中求胜心切，他不喜欢输，和我们所有人一样。对他而言，篮球就是一切。”
Kim drew pictures of Michael Jordan and slept with a basketball, according to Ko Yong Suk, the aunt who cared for him. She took him skiing in the Alps, swimming on the French Riviera, and to the Disney park in Paris. He showed flashes of stubbornness. If he was scolded for not studying, he’d refuse to eat. “He wasn’t a troublemaker, but he was short-tempered,” Ko told the Washington Post last year. (She and her husband defected to the U.S. and now run a dry-cleaning business, under assumed names.)
照顾他的姨母高英淑说，金正恩画了迈克尔·乔丹的画像，睡觉还抱着篮球。她带他去阿尔卑斯山滑雪，在法国里维埃拉游泳，去巴黎迪士尼乐园。他有时很固执，如果被责备不爱学习，他就拒绝吃饭。“他不惹麻烦，但脾气不好，”高英淑去年对《华盛顿邮报》说。（她和丈夫叛逃美国，目前化名开了一家干洗店。）
When it came time for Kim Jong Il to choose an heir, his four daughters were ineligible, because of their gender. His eldest son, Jong Nam, was more a playboy than a statesman, and, in 2001, he was caught trying to enter Japan on a forged passport, to take his four-year-old son to Tokyo Disneyland.
金正日选择继承人时，四个女儿肯定没资格。长子金正男是个花花公子，不是个政治家，2001年，他被发现用假护照进入日本，带着四岁的儿子去东京迪士尼。
The next-oldest son, Jong Chul, was reserved and gentle. While in Switzerland, he had written a poem called “My Ideal World,” which began, “If I had my ideal world I would not allow weapons and atom bombs anymore. I would destroy all terrorists with the Hollywood star Jean-Claude Van Damme.” According to Fujimoto, Kim Jong Il said that Jong Chul was unfit to rule “because he is like a little girl.” (He now works as an aide to his brother, and is thought to be his natural successor.) That left Jong Un, who had received a degree in physics from Kim Il Sung University, had trained as an artillery officer, and was active in security and political work.
次子金正哲内敛而温和。在瑞士时，他写了一首诗《我的理想世界》，开头说，“在我的理想世界里，我不允许武器和核弹存在。我会用好莱坞明星尚格·云顿摧毁所有恐怖分子”。藤本健二称，金正日说金正哲不适合统治，“因为他像个小女孩”。（他现在是弟弟的幕僚，被认为是他的自然继承人。）金正哲被抛弃了，他在金日成大学获得物理学学位后，受训成为一名炮兵军官，从事安全和政治工作。
In 2009, North Korea specialists began hearing that Jong Un, then twenty-five, was the likely successor. “He had never been in charge of anything, had never checked any of the boxes that you would normally expect someone to check on their way up through the ranks,” Revere said. “But clearly he had some personality characteristics and traits that appealed to his father, and those included a level of authority and aggression and self-confidence—some traits that his father didn’t have.”
2009年，朝鲜专家开始听说当时二十五岁的金正恩可能成为继承人。“他从没负责过什么事，也没有通常一个要一路晋升的人该有的履历，”利威尔说。“但显然他的个性讨父亲欢心，有威严，咄咄逼人，自信，这些都是他父亲所没有的。”
Before assuming power, Kim involved himself in a brazen military operation that provided a preview of his tolerance for risk, according to U.S. intelligence. In March, 2010, the North torpedoed a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, killing forty-six personnel. It also shelled Yeonpyeong Island, killing two people. These acts could have generated a fierce response, but, in the end, Seoul did not retaliate.
美国情报部门称，掌权前，金正恩参加了一次肆无忌惮的军事行动，这是一次预演，显示出他对冒险的喜爱。2010年3月，朝鲜用鱼雷袭击了韩国军舰天安号，导致四十六人死亡。此外还炮击了延坪岛，导致两人死亡。这些行为本会引发激烈回应，但首尔最终没有发起报复。
Alexandre Mansourov, the former Soviet diplomat in Pyongyang, told me that Kim’s role in the attacks reassured élites that he wasn’t averse to confrontation. “It was domestic positioning,” Mansourov said. “He needed to prove to them and his father that he could stand up.” That fall, Kim was promoted to the rank of general and made his first public appearance by his father’s side, signalling to the world that he was the chosen successor.
前苏联驻平壤外交官亚历山德烈·曼索洛夫告诉我，金正恩在袭击中发挥的作用让精英们相信他不反对对抗。“这是在国内做姿态，”曼索洛夫说。“他需要向精英们和他的父亲证明，他够硬气。”当年秋天，金正恩晋升为将军，第一次在父亲身旁亮相，向世界标志着他被选定为继承者。
In his rapid rise, Kim acquired defining habits of mind. Mansourov said, “He’s a person who was never told no. Nobody drew the red line, and said, ‘Not a step further.’ Nobody punched him in the face, made him feel hurt. We say, ‘A man begins to grow his wisdom tooth when he bites more than he can chew.’ With Kim Jong Un, he has never yet bitten more than he can chew. Whatever he sets his sights on he gets. He keeps pushing, and pushing, and pushing. We don’t know where his brakes are, and I suspect he doesn’t know where he can stop.”
迅速崛起的金正恩养成了说一不二的思维习惯。曼索洛夫说，“他是那种听不得不是的人。没人会画一条红线，告诉他‘别再前进一步了’。没人会驳他面子，让他心里受伤。我们总说，‘贪多嚼不烂时，人才开始长智齿。’可金正恩从来不会贪多嚼不烂。他盯上什么就能得到什么。他不断地突破、突破、突破。我们不知道他要在何处刹住，我怀疑他压根不知道该停在何处。”
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