诺奖经济学得主赛勒的“朋友圈法则” | BBC

Richard Thaler and the economics of how we live

The economist Richard H. Thaler at his home in Chicago on Monday after winning the 2017 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science. He said he would try to spend the prize money “as irrationally as possible.” Anne Ryan/University of Chicago, via Reuters 

How do you get people to eat more healthily?

你如何让人们吃的更健康？

You could construct some powerful arguments about how an obesity epidemic is leading to more diseases such as Type II diabetes and coronary heart conditions.

You could put large red traffic light signs on unhealthy foods and engage in expensive public information campaigns warning that overeating products high in salt, sugar and fat can reduce life expectancy.

你可以举出强有力的论据说明肥胖症引发更多2型糖尿病和冠心病症状。你可以在不健康食品上插上大红灯，参加昂贵的公众宣传活动，警告吃太多盐、糖和脂肪会减寿。

Or you could just change where you put the salad boxes on the supermarket shelves.

或者你要做的只是改变调料瓶在超市货架上的位置。

The last option is an example of nudge theory at work, a theory popularised and developed by Richard Thaler, the University of Chicago economist who was announced as this year's recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics.

最后一种选择就是“助推”理论发挥作用的实例，该理论是芝加哥大学经济学家理查德·塞勒推广并完善的，他获得今年的诺贝尔经济学奖。

Prof Thaler's central insight is that we are not the rational beings beloved of more traditional economic theory. Given two options, we are likely to pick the wrong one even if that means making ourselves less well off.

塞勒博士的核心洞见是，我们并非传统经济学理论喜爱的理性动物。两个选项中，我们可能选择错误的一个，虽然哪一个意味着我们会更穷苦。

Lack of thinking time, habit and poor decision making mean that even when presented with a factual analysis (for example on healthy eating) we are still likely to pick burger and chips. We're hungry, we're in a hurry and burger and chips is what we always buy.

缺少思考时间、习以为常和不佳决策，意味着即便在事实分析面前（例如健康饮食），我们还是会选择拿起汉堡包和薯条。我们饿了，急着果腹，汉堡包和薯条就是我们常买的东西。

Nudge theory takes account of this, based as it is on the simple premise that people will often choose what is easiest over what is wisest.

“助推”理论考虑到这个问题，这基于一个简单的前提，即人们常常做最容易而非最明智的选择。

Tests have shown that putting healthier foods on a higher shelf increases sales. The food is more likely to be in someone's eye line and therefore "nudge" that person towards the purchase - whether they had any idea about the obesity argument or not.

测试表明，把更健康的食品放在位置更高的地方会增加销量。食品和人们眼睛水平齐高，就“助推”了人们购买的欲望，无论人们知不知道关于肥胖的论断。

Such theories, which sit in a big bucket of academic study called "behavioural economics", are what Prof Thaler is famous for. 

这些理论背后是一大批被称为“行为经济学”的理论，塞勒教授以此闻名。

So famous that the government now has its own Behavioural Insights Team, otherwise known as the "nudge unit". It helps formulate policies, for example on pensions, to try and make us behave "more rationally" and push us towards better outcomes.

同样有名的是，如今政府有自己的“行为洞见团队”，被称为“助推小组”。小组协助制定政策，如养老金等，力图让我们的行为“更加理性”，推动我们实现更好的结果。

One of its projects revealed that charitable giving via your pay packet - called payroll giving - increased dramatically if people were told who else in their peer group (maybe Facebook friends) were also giving via that method. Attaching a picture of "mates giving money" also improved the level of charitable donations. We tend to like doing what our friends like doing - called the peer group norm.

其中一项工作表明，拿薪水做慈善，也被称为“工资扣除捐赠”，只要人们得知朋友圈里（可能是脸书好友）也通过这种方法捐钱，该行为就会大幅增加。贴一副“同事在捐钱”的图片也会提高慈善捐助水平。我们喜欢做朋友们爱做的事，这被称为“朋友圈准则”。

Prof Thaler also gave us the concept of "mental accounting" - that we will tend to divide our expenditure into separate blocks even though they come from the same source. For example, we will spend more on a credit or debit card in a food shop compared with cash even though all the money ultimately comes from our earnings.

塞勒教授还提出“大脑内的会计”概念，我们会把支出分成不同的部分，即便他们来源都是一样的。例如，用信用卡或借记卡在食品店购物，会比拿现金花得更多，尽管归根到底，钱都是我们赚的。

Then there is his work on the "planner-doer" syndrome - that we lack self-control, will act in our own short-term self-interest and need extra incentives to plan long term than simply being told that, rationally, it is good idea.

他还研究了“计划者-实施者”综合征，即我们缺乏自控力，只按短期自我利益行事，只有给予更多激励措施，才能让我们做长期计划，而非简单的说，从理性上讲，后者是个好主意。

How many times do we let that gym membership lapse, despite our best intentions?

有多少次你买了健身卡却从来没去过，尽管曾经下定决心？

Having just received news of the award, Prof Thaler told me that his job was to "add human beings" to economic theory.

得知获奖后，塞勒教授对我说，他的工作是给经济学理论“加上人的因素”。

And today he has been rewarded, both via the recognition of the Nobel Prize and by the not inconsiderable sum of £845,000 in prize money.

今天他获得诺贝尔奖的认可，还获得一笔不菲的奖金，84.5万英镑。

Asked how he would spend the money Prof Thaler gave a succinct answer. "Irrationally."

被问及要如何花这笔钱时，塞勒教授给了一个简洁的答案：“胡乱花。”