索马里的长痛 | 纽约客
After Years of Progress, a Deadly Setback in Somalia
The district of Hodan, in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, exemplifies the city’s transformation in recent years. Visitors can find open-air pizza restaurants, ice-cream parlors and shisha bars, hotels and restaurants, barrow boys hawking bananas and mangoes, and taxis and cars honking their way through the throng.
索马里首都摩加迪沙奥德纳区是近年来城市转型的典范。观光客可以发现露天披萨馆、冰淇淋铺子、水烟店、酒店和饭店，推着车子的男孩叫卖香蕉和芒果，出租车和汽车在人群中鸣笛穿行。
Pretty much every day is busy, but Saturdays are especially so. This past Saturday, a massive truck bomb detonated in Hodan, killing more than three hundred people, an unprecedented death toll in Somalia which may rise as bodies are hauled from the wreckage.
平日里人来人往，但周六尤其如此。上周六，巨型卡车炸弹在奥德纳引爆，超过三百人丧生，死伤人数创索马里纪录，随着尸体从废墟中拉出，遇难人数还会进一步上升。
The blast caused the multistory Safari Hotel to collapse, partially demolished nearby buildings, and mangled vehicles that were parked on the street. The aftermath of the attack was reminiscent of the worst of the years of the civil war that has ravaged Somalia since 1991. The city’s Aamin Ambulance service, which for the last decade has been among the first to respond to bombings, tweeted, “We haven’t seen anything like this.”
爆炸导致色法里酒店高层建筑倒塌，附近建筑部分遭到破坏，街道上停靠的车辆严重损毁。袭击后果让人想到1991年以来爆发内战后索马里最糟糕的那些年头。该市的阿敏救护队过去十年来总是冲在爆炸事件第一线，救护队发推文说：“我们从没见过这种场景。”
No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion focussed on Al Shabaab, an Al Qaeda-aligned militant group that has been fighting successive Somali governments for a decade. Saturday’s bombing came after months of relative peace in Mogadishu, which had made it feel as if Somalia had turned a corner in its long and turbulent history of state collapse.
无人宣称对袭击负责，但怀疑集中在索马里青年党，这是一个效忠于基地组织的好战团体，十年来一直与索马里政府作战。周六爆炸发生前，摩加迪沙维持了数月的和平，让人以为索马里国家分崩离析的漫长动荡史已经翻篇了。
“Everyone is shocked that Shabaab can conduct such a ferocious attack in the heart of a government-controlled district,” Rashid Abdi, the Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, in Nairobi, told me. Civilians in Mogadishu, especially ones participating in commerce—or, worse still, fun—are, for Al Shabaab, considered legitimate targets and careless collateral.
“青年党能在政府控制的中心地区发动如此残暴的袭击让所有人感到吃惊，”国际危机组织非洲之角主任拉什德·阿巴迪在内罗毕对我说。对索马里青年党而言，摩加迪沙的平民，尤其那些做生意甚至只是来游玩的人，是合法的袭击目标和无所谓死活的附带品。
“Shabaab has shown no concern for civilians,” Abdi said. “It sees the population as being on the government’s side, so an attack in the bustling heart of the city is not a problem for them.”
“青年党根本不关心平民，”阿巴迪说。“它认为人们和政府站在一边，所以在闹市区发动袭击根本不成问题。”
Small-scale bombings and attacks in Somalia—and elsewhere in the region—that kill dozens of people have become routine, but a death toll in the hundreds is remarkable. The sheer scale of Saturday’s attack pointed to Al Shabaab’s increasing sophistication in bomb-making, a willingness and ability to cause mass civilian casualties, and the failure of the internationally backed government to provide basic security.
在索马里及周边地区发动小规模爆炸和袭击并造成数十人死亡是很常见的，但上百人的死亡就不同寻常了。单从规模看，周六袭击表明索马里青年党的炸弹制造水平日臻完善，有意愿并有能力造成大规模平民伤亡，且得到国际支持的政府未能提供基本安全保障。
Al Shabaab’s insurgency grew out of the Islamic Courts Union, a grassroots Islamist alliance that defeated the clan warlords who carved up and fought over the country after the dictator Siad Barre was overthrown, in 1991. The United States backed an Ethiopian invasion, in 2006, which shattered the Islamic Courts Union, leaving its armed wing, Al Shabaab—which means “the Youth”—to launch a guerrilla resistance that has lasted more than a decade and grown increasingly extreme.
索马里青年党的叛乱发迹于伊斯兰法庭联盟，这是一个伊斯兰草根组织，1991年独裁者西亚德·巴雷被推翻后，联盟战胜了各路军阀，打出一片天地。2006年，美国支持埃塞俄比亚出兵索马里，捣毁了伊斯兰法庭联盟，其武装部队索马里青年党转入游击战，持续十多年并日益极端化。
Outside of Somalia, Al Shabaab has bombed soccer fans in Kampala, attacked shoppers and students in Kenya, and recruited fighters from among disenfranchised young people across the region. In Somalia, it has staved off the Islamic State’s attempts to gain a foothold and made its signature marauding attacks, in which suicide car bombers backed by small squads of gunmen attack military, government, and civilian targets.
索马里以外，青年党炸弹袭击乌干达首都坎帕拉的球迷，袭击肯尼亚购物者和学生，在该地区没有归属感的年轻人中间招募战士。在索马里，它阻遏了伊斯兰国落地生根，发动标志性的劫掠性袭击，在小队武装人员支援下进行自杀性汽车炸弹，袭击军事、政府和平民目标。
It has also displayed a remarkable capacity for adaptation and persistence. Until Saturday, its deadliest domestic attack had been a suicide bombing, in 2011, that killed more than a hundred students as they lined up to apply for international scholarships.
它也展示出非凡的因势利导和持久作战的能力。上周六前，死亡人数最多的一次国内袭击是2011年的自杀性爆炸，导致一百多名学生丧生，当时受难者正在排队申请国际奖学金。
The new government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed—a dual Somali-American national known by his nickname Farmajo—has sought to impose a “ring of steel” security strategy in Mogadishu since his election, in February.
穆罕默德·阿卜杜拉希·穆罕默德的新政府2月当选后，力图在摩加迪沙推行“钢环”安全战略，总统拥有索马里和美国双重国籍，昵称“法马约”。
“The aim is to push the perimeter out and harden it, to make it more difficult for Shabaab to penetrate the city,” Matt Bryden, the director of Sahan Research, a Somalia-focussed think tank in Nairobi, told me. With fewer bombings in recent months, the strategy appeared to be working.
“目的是扩大范围并夯实界限，让青年党难以渗透进城来，”位于内罗毕的索马里研究智库萨汗研究院主任马特·布莱登对我说。最近数月来，爆炸事件减少，该战略貌似初见成效。
“The message is clear: Shabaab is still in business,” Bryden said. Al Shabaab has been building ever-larger truck and car bombs, and the attack was “sadly predictable,” Bryden added. “The scale is out of the ordinary, but the method is familiar.”
“现在很明显：青年党还在活动，”布莱登说。索马里青年党制造了更大的卡车和汽车炸弹，袭击是“可以预测的，真令人伤心”。“规模不同寻常，方法却似曾相识。”
The attack came as Farmajo’s government is increasingly beset by internal division. The fortunes of the state and Al Shabaab are closely linked—when one is weak, the other is strong. Farmajo looks weak. The new President’s decision, in late August, to extradite a commander of the Somali separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front to Ethiopia was widely condemned as appeasing an old regional enemy and betraying nationalist principles. It bolstered Al Shabaab’s claim that it is the true defender of Somali nationalism.
袭击发生的背景是法马约政府日益受困于内部分裂。国家和青年党的运势像跷跷板，你强我就弱，如今法马约看起来弱了。八月末，新总统将试图分裂索马里的奥佳登欧加登民族解放阵线司令官驱逐至埃塞俄比亚，该决定受到广泛谴责，认为这是对其地区内的老对手做出让步，背弃了民族主义原则。这巩固了青年党的地位，他们自称是索马里民族主义真正捍卫者。
Reuters reported last month that rival units of the Somalian military engaged in a deadly gun battle in Dayniile, an outlying district of Mogadishu. Last week, the country’s defense minister and Army chief both resigned. “We have seen weeks of internal schisms in government, especially in the security sector,” Abdi said. “Shabaab exploits these situations.”
上个月，路透社报道，摩加迪沙郊区代内尔的致命枪战激怒了索马里军方中的对立部队。上周，该国国防部长和陆军总长双双辞职。“政府内部持续了数周的对立，尤其在安全部门，”阿巴迪说。“于是青年党趁虚而入。”
The international powers that back Farmajo’s government, and pay for the twenty-two-thousand-strong African Union force that defends it against Al Shabaab, issued statements of outrage, sympathy, and support after Saturday’s bombing. “Such cowardly attacks reinvigorate the commitment of the United States to assist our Somali and African Union partners to combat the scourge of terrorism,” the U.S. Mission to Somalia said in a statement.
周六爆炸事件后，支持法马约政府、并资助2000名非盟军队抵抗索马里青年党的国际列强发表声明，表达了愤慨、同情和支持。“这些胆怯的袭击再次让美国坚定了援助我们的索马里和非盟伙伴打击恐怖主义的决心。”
For years, the American military has been engaged in a covert war in Somalia. American drones and missiles have killed two successive leaders of Al Shabaab (Aden Hashi Ayro, in 2008, and Ahmed Abdi Godane, six years later), as well as dozens of lower-ranking commanders and hundreds of fighters. But decapitation has not eliminated the group.
多年来，美国军队一直秘密在索马里作战。美国无人机和导弹连续狙杀了两任青年党领袖（2008年的亚丁·哈什·埃奥罗和六年后的阿合麦德·阿巴迪·戈登）、数十名低级指挥官和数百名战士，但斩首行动未能根除该组织。
Since taking office, President Donald Trump has loosened restrictions on U.S. military action in Somalia, designating parts of the country an “area of active hostilities,” which has increased the frequency of U.S.-backed raids. In May, a Navy SEAL was killed during a raid, the first combat death of an American soldier in Somalia since 1993, when eighteen U.S. servicemen died fighting in Mogadishu during a battle made famous by the book and film “Black Hawk Down.”
总统唐纳德·特朗普就任以来，放松了美军在索马里的行动限制，认定该国部分地区为“实际战斗区”，增加了美军支持的袭击频率。五月，一名海军海豹突击队员在执行任务中丧生，这是1993年以来第一位在索马里执行战斗任务时死亡的美军士兵。1993年，18名美国军人在摩加迪沙战斗中死亡，事件因书籍和电影《黑鹰坠落》而闻名。
Somalia now rarely attracts American attention. A famine in 2011 that killed two hundred and sixty thousand people sparked a sweeping but belated international humanitarian effort, and this year, when drought struck again, the worst hunger was forestalled. But responding to acute crises is simpler than solving chronic ones, such as rebuilding the Somali state after decades of civil war and famine.
现在，索马里很难引起美国关注了。2011年的饥荒导致26万人死亡，得到全面却姗姗来迟的国际人道主义援助；今年干旱再袭，可能会发生最严重的饥荒。但应对这些急性危机比治理慢性病要更为容易，难的是在经历数十年内战和饥荒后重建索马里国。
Al Shabaab is just the latest iteration of several generations of nationalist Islamist resistance movements in Somalia. Though neither monolithic nor entirely cohesive, the group has shown a tenacity, perseverance, and unity of purpose that has humbled a succession of foreign-backed governments, which have crumbled under the weight of clan divisions, corruption, and incompetence. As Somalis bury their dead, the government has declared three days of mourning. The world’s attention will likely have moved on before they’re over.
青年党只是索马里几代伊斯兰民族主义抵抗运动的最新表现。尽管并非铁板一块，前后也多不连贯，该组织体现出一种韧性、耐力和共同使命感，令连续几届外国支持下的政府相形见绌，后者在派系分裂、腐败和无能的重压下分崩离析。索马里人埋葬死难者时，政府宣布默哀三天，兴许这还没结束，世界的注意力就别移他处了。