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中韩还是好兄弟 | 纽约时报

2017-11-03 PERLEZ & HUNNOV 英文联播

China Blinks on South Korea, Making Nice After a Year of Hostilities

BEIJING — For more than a year, China has been railing against South Korea, recently encouraging boycotts of its products over a decision to let the United States deploy an antimissile system that Beijing fears threatens its own security. But on Tuesday, China abruptly changed course, essentially saying “never mind,” as the two countries agreed to end their dispute even though South Korea is keeping the system in place.

一年多来,中国一直怒斥韩国,鼓励抵制韩国货,原因是韩国决定让美国部署反导系统,北京担心这会威胁自身安全。但周二,中国突然改变策略,大概意思是“无所谓了”,两国同意结束争端,虽然韩国仍然部署了该系统。


In restoring better relations with South Korea, China’s ever more confident leader appeared to have decided that he could afford to blink, calculating that his continued opposition to the United States’ deployment of the missile defense system was not succeeding in undermining Seoul’s alliance with Washington.

中国更加自信的领导人看起来不把反导系统放在眼里了,于是重建了对韩关系,毕竟继续反对美国部署导弹防御系统无助于破坏首尔与华盛顿的联盟。


Even under the new liberal president in South Korea, Moon Jae-in, whose outlook toward China had been more favorable than his predecessor’s and who has called for a more balanced diplomacy between Beijing and Washington, China made no headway in achieving his stated goal of stopping the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad.

新当选的自由派韩国总统文在寅对中国的看法比前任更家友好,呼吁在北京和华盛顿间推行更加平衡的外交,即便如此,中国并未在阻止萨德部署的目标上取得进展。


A second phase of the missile defense system, intended to defend South Korea from the escalating nuclear and missile threats from North Korea, was installed despite China’s protests in September, just four months after Mr. Moon took office. China had insisted it would not tolerate Thaad’s powerful radar so close to its own missile systems.

尽管中国在九月份强烈抗议,导弹防御系统第二期得以部署,旨在保卫韩国免受朝鲜不断升级的核导威胁,这仅是文在寅上台的四个月后。中国坚持认为不能容忍萨德,其强大的雷达距离中国的导弹系统太近了。


China’s tough stance against South Korea also included the informal, though punishing economic boycott that helped reinforce the American relationship with Seoul, undermining China’s long-term goal of replacing the United States as the pre-eminent power in Asia. “This is the reversal of an ineffective and costly policy on the part of China,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China.

中国对韩国的强硬立场还包括惩罚性的非正式经济抵制,这反倒强化了美国与韩国的关系,破坏了中国实现在亚洲取代美国的长期目标。“就中国而言,现在逆转了无效且昂贵的政策,”中国人民大学国际关系学教授时殷弘说。


In agreeing to restore cordial relations, South Korea pledged not to accept additional Thaad launchers, and agreed not to join a regional missile defense system with the United States and Japan. The agreement not to accept any more Thaad deployments had been a longstanding policy stance of Mr. Moon anyway, a South Korean government official said on Wednesday.

为友好关系计,韩国承诺不再新增萨德发射装置,同意不加入美国和日本的区域导弹防御系统。周三,某韩国政府官员称,不再部署更多萨德一直是文在寅的长期政策。


South Korea also promised not to join a trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan. Mr. Moon, like his predecessors, had shown no interest in expanding military relations with Japan, its former colonial master. With the increased threat from North Korea, Mr. Moon had aligned himself more closely with Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. The three leaders met on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit meeting in Germany in July, and agreed to enhance their defense capabilities against the North Korean threat.

韩国还承诺不与美日组成三边军事联盟。文在寅同前任一样,对推动前殖民主日本的军事关系没有兴趣。在朝鲜威胁加剧的情况下,文在寅与特朗普与特朗普先生和日本首相安倍晋三立场更加趋同。7月德国的G20峰会上,三国领导在会议期间会晤,达成协议增强对抗朝鲜威胁的防卫能力。


In warming up to South Korea, Mr. Xi probably recognized that Mr. Moon would be more malleable to favoring dialogue with North Korea than was his conservative predecessor, Park Geun-hye.

中国领导人可能意识到文在寅相比属于保守派的前任朴槿惠身段更柔和,愿意同朝鲜开展对话,于是加强了对韩关系。


At the recent party congress in which he was elevated to a second five-year term as president, Mr. Xi showed himself determined to project China’s power in a “new era” of China astride the world stage. Resolving the North Korea crisis dovetails with that theme, and any move toward talking with the North would be easier with Mr. Moon by his side.

最近召开的党代会上,获得连任的中国领导人决心阔步前进,在世界舞台上展现中国的“新时代”。解决朝鲜危机契合该主题,而任何与朝鲜对话的举动都对文在寅有利。


“South Korea believes that China still has an influence over North Korea and an important role to play in resolving its nuclear problem,” said Lee Dong-ryul, professor of Chinese studies at Dongduk Women’s University in Seoul.

“韩国相信中国仍对朝鲜具有影响力,并在解决核武问题上发挥重要作用,”位于首尔的同德女子大学中国研究教授Lee Dong-ryul说。


South Korea and China announced their decision to restore relations just ahead of President Trump’s first visit to Asia, which includes stops in Seoul and Beijing. The timing was interpreted in Beijing as a way to blunt some of the impact of the American president’s stop in Seoul, where he is expected to deliver a speech to the National Assembly. “It could be seen as a pre-emptive response to Trump’s visit,” Mr. Shi said.

韩国和中国在特朗普总统第一次访亚之前宣布恢复关系,特朗普的行程包括首尔和北京。这一时点被解读为北京削弱美国总统首尔之行的部分影响,特朗普预计在韩国国会发表演讲。“这可以看做是对特朗普的访问先发制人,”时殷弘说。


Indeed, the rapprochement between China and South Korea carries risks for the United States. How far Mr. Moon would now lean toward China is something that Washington needs to watch closely, said Evans J. R. Revere, a former State Department official who has dealt with the Korean Peninsula.

没错,中国和韩国交好给美国带来风险。文在寅会在多大程度上倒向中国华盛顿需要小心观察,处理半岛问题的美国国务院前官员伊文思·J·R·利威尔说。


In agreeing not to join a regional missile defense system, South Korea is addressing China’s concerns about what it views as the United States’ aim to “contain” China.

同意不加入区域导弹防御系统,韩国纾解了中国的担忧,中国将其视作“遏制”中国的企图。


“Beijing was worried that Thaad would eventually be succeeded by ‘son of Thaad’ — a regional missile defense system involving the United States, South Korea and Japan and others that would be aimed at dealing with China’s offensive missile force, unlike the current Thaad, which it is not,” Mr. Revere said.

“北京担心萨德最终会被‘萨德的子代’取代,即美国、韩国、日本等国都参与的区域导弹防御系统,旨在应对中国的进攻性导弹力量,现在的萨德系统不具备此功能。”利威尔说。


For Mr. Moon, the Chinese government’s efforts to discourage the purchase of popular South Korean goods as punishment for the Thaad deployment has taken a toll. China is by far the biggest trading partner of South Korea; two-way trade is bigger than South Korea’s trade with the United States and Japan combined.

对文在寅而言,中国鼓励抵制韩国货,惩罚其部署萨德系统,这造成伤害。中国目前是韩国最大的贸易伙伴,双边贸易比韩国对美日的总和都多。


The Hyundai Research Institute found that the Thaad dispute was likely to cost South Korea $7.5 billion so far this year, a 0.5 percent hit on its gross domestic product. China, for its part, lost $880 million, just a 0.01 percent drop of its G.D.P., the institute said. South Korean car sales plummeted in China. Lotte, the retailer, recently put 112 of its stores in China on the market after customers abandoned it. South Korean movies and cosmetics also suffered.

现代研究院发现,今年以来,萨德争端可能让韩国损失75亿美元,拉低国内生产总值0.5个百分点,而中国只损失了8.8亿美元,只占国内生产总值的0.01%。韩国在华汽车销量暴跌。在消费者抵制下,零售商乐天最近关停了112家店。韩国电影和化妆品也损失严重。


The boycott of certain goods and services — coupled with what was perceived as China’s interference in South Korea’s internal affairs over Thaad — hardened the view of China as a bully among the South Korean people. “We have seen anti-Chinese sentiments rising in South Korea,” said Seo Jeong-kyung, professor at the Sungkyun Institute of China Studies in Seoul. “So did the approval ratings for the Thaad deployment, and calls mounted for strengthening the alliance with the Americans.”

抵制某种商品和服务,加之在萨德问题上被看做干预韩国内政,韩国人加深了中国在欺负自己的观点。“韩国的反华情绪高涨,”首尔sungkyun中国研究院说。“对部署萨德的支持率和加强与美国结盟的呼声也攀高。”


China did not offer a timetable for improving economic relations, although the accord said the “normal track” would be achieved “expeditiously.” Despite the apparent resolution of the standoff between the two countries, there was no guarantee that the accord would stick.

中国并未给出改善经济关系的时间表,尽管协定说将“尽快”回到“正常轨道”。尽管目前两国形成打破僵局的解决方案,但并未保证会一直推行下去。


People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, issued a somewhat friendly, but mostly stern, editorial. “Only proper resolution of the Thaad issue can bring the Sino-Korean relationship back onto the right track,” it said.

中国官媒《人民日报》发表了一篇表面友好、实则严厉的社论。“只有妥善解决萨德问题,中韩关系才能回到正轨。”


It was possible that both sides agreed to resolve their differences so the two leaders could meet in Vietnam next week during an Asian economic summit meeting. After that, there is talk of Mr. Moon visiting China before the end of the year.

可能双方同意解决分歧,保证两国领导人可以下周在越南举办的亚洲经济高峰会议上会面。结束后,才能谈及文在寅年底访华的事宜。


“This is a direct result of South Korea’s efforts to mend fences,” said Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor of international relations at Renmin University. “China also realizes that Thaad should not hold hostage the whole relations between the two nations. But I think the Thaad issue is just shelved, not resolved.”

“这是韩国努力修复关系的直接结果,”人民大学国际关系副教授成晓河说。“中国也意识到萨德不该绑架全部的两国关系。但我认为萨德问题被搁置了,而并未得到解决。”




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