巴西政坛新秀：一半是川普、一半是杜特尔特 | 纽约客
Meet Brazil’s Presidential Front-Runner, Jair Bolsonaro: Part Donald Trump, Part Rodrigo Duterte
In the era of Donald Trump, domestic matters have taken center stage even more than usual for most Americans, and the rest of the world has mostly fallen off the wings. As a case in point, over the past week or so, while the country has been transfixed by the drama of Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation, America’s largest neighbor to the south, Brazil, has been lurching toward far-right authoritarianism.
对多数美洲人而言，在唐纳德·特朗普时代，国内事务比平素更引人关注，他乡之事基本上被抖落在地。举个例子，大概上周，确认布雷特·卡瓦诺最高法院职位引发的戏剧攫住了整个美国，另一边，美国南部最大的邻居巴西正迅速倒向极右翼独裁主义。
transfix: If you are transfixed by something, it captures all of your interest or attention, so that you are unable to think of anything else or unable to act. 使···呆住
lurch: If you say that a person or organization lurches from one thing to another, you mean they move suddenly from one course of action or attitude to another in an uncontrolled way. (行为或态度随意的) 突然改变
On Sunday, Brazil’s voters will elect a new President, and the man leading in the polls, a former Army captain named Jair Bolsonaro, is something like a Brazilian version of Donald Trump—slimmer and a decade younger, but just as mouthy—with a large dollop of the Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte thrown in.
周日，巴西选民将选举新总统，名叫雅伊尔·波尔索纳罗的前陆军上校领跑民调，他有点像巴西版的唐纳德·特朗普——尽管身材更苗条，也年轻十岁，却一样口无遮拦——再添上一勺菲律宾总统罗德里格·杜特尔特。
dollop: A dollop of soft or sticky food is a large spoonful of it. 一大勺的量
throw in: To add or offer something extra as a free bonus or incentive. 额外附加
Bolsonaro’s rise has had a disquieting, inexorable quality to it, recalling Trump’s path to victory. As with Trump, it is Bolsonaro’s status as an outsider and a roguish prankster that has brought him into favor. Both men also share an instinct for waiting for the political Zeitgeist to provide them with an opening. Bolsonaro’s arrived during a serious economic decline and a national loss of faith in the mainstream political parties, as well as in governmental institutions.
波尔索纳罗的崛起有种令人不安和不可阻挡的意味，让人想起特朗普的成功之路。同特朗普一样，波尔索纳罗是个圈外人，一个通过瞎捣蛋获得人们喜爱的人。两个人都有一种本能，他们坐等政治大势送给他们一个机会。波尔索纳罗登场，背后是一场严重的经济衰退，而人民对主流政党和政府机构丧失信仰。
disquiet: Disquiet is a feeling of worry or anxiety. 忧虑不安
inexorable: You use inexorable to describe a process that cannot be prevented from continuing or progressing. 不可阻挡的
outsider: In a competition, an outsider is a competitor who is unlikely to win. (在比赛中) 无望获胜者
prankster: A prankster is someone who plays tricks and practical jokes on people. 搞恶作剧者; 开玩笑者
Zeitgeist: the zeitgeist of a particular place during a particular period in history is the attitudes and ideas that are generally common there at that time, especially the attitudes and ideas shown in literature, philosophy, and politics. (尤指文学、哲学和政治中表现的)时代精神; 时代潮流
opening: An opening is a good opportunity to do something, for example, to show people how good you are. 机遇
Since September 6th, Bolsonaro has been recovering from a near-fatal stabbing attack at a campaign appearance, and his numbers have risen steadily in the field of thirteen candidates. Ten days ago, he was at twenty-seven per cent, six points ahead of his nearest challenger, Fernando Haddad, a former mayor of São Paulo, who represents the left-of-center Workers Party, or P.T., and pundits predicted a tight race between the two in a runoff vote scheduled for October 28th. But, in the past few days, Bolsonaro has catapulted ahead; he is now polling at thirty-five per cent, with Haddad lagging at twenty-two, and there is increasing speculation that Bolsonaro may win outright in the first round.
9月6日以来，波尔索纳罗从一场几乎让他丧命的大选行刺中恢复过来，在13名候选人中，他的支持率节节高升。10天前，他的支持率为27%，领先排名第二的挑战者、中左翼工人党代表、圣保罗前市长费尔南多·哈达德6个百分点，专家预测两人将在10月28日的第二轮选举中势均力敌。但过去几天，波尔索纳罗突飞猛进，现在支持率达到35%，而哈达德只有22%，越来越多人猜测，波尔索纳罗会在第一轮直接胜出。
catapulte: If someone or something catapults or is catapulted through the air, they are thrown very suddenly, quickly, and violently through it. 弹射
outright: means complete and total. 完全彻底的
If Bolsonaro does win, a political sea change will have occurred in Brazil. The P.T. was in office from 2003 to 2016, but its hold on power, and on Brazilians’ sympathies, collapsed amid the country’s devastating recession and a slew of corruption scandals. Haddad entered the race just last month, after a court ruled out the candidacy of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Party’s charismatic veteran leader and a two-term former President, who has been in prison since April, on corruption charges. (In 2016, Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached; since then, Brazil has been run by an unpopular caretaker President, Michel Temer.) Lula had been the front-runner; Haddad, who lost his bid for reëlection as São Paulo’s mayor in 2016, has been unable to gain traction against Bolsonaro.
如果波尔索纳罗获胜，巴西将发生政治巨变。2003年到2016年巴西工人党执政，但该国毁灭性的经济衰退和一连串腐败丑闻让该党对权力的掌控崩溃，人民不再同情该党。哈达德上个月才参加竞选，此前一法院裁决禁止两任巴西总统、4月以来因腐败指控入狱的工人党魅力型前领导人路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦参选。（2016年，卢拉的继任者迪尔玛·罗塞夫遭弹劾；此后巴西由不受欢迎的看守总统米歇尔·特梅尔掌舵。）卢拉一直是领跑者，2016年连任圣保罗市长折戟的哈达德一向没法与波尔索纳罗叫板。
Most of Bolsonaro’s supporters get their news from social media, such as Facebook and WhatsApp, and the candidate has learned how to use it to his advantage, much as Trump has with Twitter. He now has nearly seven million Facebook followers—he has apparently gained a million in the past three weeks—far more than any of the other candidates. In scheduled debates, he has gone one better than Trump, who mostly just insulted his rivals, by not showing up at all. This, too, seems to have helped him. Since the most recent debate, on Thursday, which he did not attend, he has gained two percentage points.
波尔索纳罗多数支持者从脸谱和网络信使等社交媒体上看新闻，他也学会了如何利用社交媒体，正如特朗普会用推特一样。他现在有近700万脸谱关注者，远多于其他候选人，显而易见，过去三周就增加了100万。在例行辩论中，他的表现优于特朗普，他压根不让对手难堪，而特朗普基本都在辱骂对手。看起来这也有利于他。周四的最新一次辩论他没有参加，但他的支持率增加了2个百分点。
show up: If someone or something shows you up, they make you feel embarrassed or ashamed of them. 使难堪
In another echo of Trump, Bolsonaro has been bolstered by a wave of support from the private sector and evangelicals. This past week, the billionaire televangelist Edir Macedo, who has a huge following in Brazil, and a media empire, announced his support. Brazil’s businessmen, in their swing to Bolsonaro, seem simply to have done their math. Their center-right candidates are languishing far behind in the race, and Bolsonaro’s promise to hand economic policy over to a well-known University of Chicago-educated economist named Paulo Guedes has made him a more palatable choice for them.
还有一点让人想到特朗普，波尔索纳罗得到私营部门和福音派的一波支持。过去一周，在巴西广受欢迎的电视福音传道人、拥有一家媒体帝国的亿万富翁艾迪尔·马塞多宣布支持波尔索纳罗。巴西商人倒向波尔索纳罗，看起来他们只是算了算帐。中左翼候选人在选战中远远落后，波尔索纳罗承诺将经济政策交由知名经济学家保罗·格德斯掌舵，格德斯受芝加哥大学的教育，这让波尔索纳罗成为更可心的选择。
bolster: If someone tries to bolster their position in a situation, they try to strengthen it. 巩固
palatable: If you describe something such as an idea or method as palatable, you mean that people are willing to accept it. 可接受的
Perhaps most surprising, however, Bolsonaro’s support has been growing among middle- and upper-class women, even though he opposes equal pay for women (“because they get pregnant”), paid maternity leave, and abortion. There’s also the fact that he was found guilty on charges of incitement to rape and defamation, after he told a congresswoman that she “wasn’t worth raping” (he said it twice, the first time in 2003), and was ordered to pay her damages of about twenty-five hundred dollars. In a related case, the attorney general recently charged him with inciting hatred and discrimination against women and other groups. (Bolsonaro denies the charges, saying that they are politically motivated; the initial incident with the congresswoman was caught on video.)
然而，兴许更令人惊讶的是，波尔索纳罗得到越来越多中产和上层女性的支持，尽管他反对妇女同工同酬（因为女人会怀孕），反对带薪产假和堕胎。另外，他被控强奸和诽谤并承认有罪，此前他对一名女议员说，她“不值得强奸”（他说了两次，第一次是2003年），并因此被勒令支付约2500美元赔偿金。最近，在另一个案子中，总检察长指控他煽动对女性和其他团体的仇恨和歧视。（波尔索纳罗否认指控，表示这些是有政治目的的；一开始和女议员的事恰好就有视频录像。）
incite: If someone incites people to behave in a violent or illegal way, they encourage people to behave in that way, usually by making them excited or angry. 煽动
This past Saturday saw nationwide protests led by women—members of the “Not Him” movement—but Daniela Pinheiro, the editor of the weekly news magazine Epoca, told me that “Brazilian TV didn’t cover the protests well, and the day after, Bolsonaro’s people spread a lot of fake news, including pictures of naked women peeing in the streets, saying, ‘This is what the P.T. wants to do with our women and kids.’ ”
上周六，“不是他”运动成员组织的女性抗议席卷巴西全国，但巴西《时代周刊》编辑丹妮拉·皮涅罗说“巴西电视没怎么报道抗议，而一天后，波尔索纳罗的支持者散布了很多假消息，包括裸女在街头撒尿等，说‘这就是工人党想让我们的女人和孩子做的’。”
Bolsonaro and Trump may be uncannily similar in their world view and comportment, but they have led different lives. A lanky, floppy-haired sixty-three-year-old of Italian-immigrant stock, Bolsonaro went into Brazil’s Army academy from high school, in 1971, at the height of the country’s repressive right-wing military dictatorship, and served in the Army for seventeen years, leaving with a captain’s rank and a reputation for being “ambitious” and “aggressive.” He has remained both. After a stint as a city councilman, in Rio, he was elected to Congress in 1991, and has held his seat ever since.
波尔索纳罗和特朗普在世界观和举止上惊人相似，但他们有着截然不同的人生。瘦高、软发的波尔索纳罗是意大利移民，现年63岁的他1971年高中毕业后进入巴西陆军学院，当时正值右翼军事独裁镇压人民的巅峰，他在陆军服役17年，获上校衔，以“野心”和“激进”闻名，此后他一直如此。他在里约热内卢担任市议员一段时间后，1991年当选国会议员，并一直担任此职。
uncanny: If you describe something as uncanny, you mean that it is strange and difficult to explain. 出奇的
comportment: bearing 行为; 举止
lanky: If you describe someone as lanky, you mean that they are tall and thin and move rather awkwardly. 瘦长而行动笨拙的
stint: A stint is a period of time which you spend doing a particular job or activity or working in a particular place. 一段时间
Although he has spent most of that time on the political sidelines, he has been unswerving in his role as a provocateur, prone to outrageous statements that insured headlines. These have included inflammatory pronouncements about his own children. Bolsonaro, who has been married three times, is the father of four boys and a girl. He once told a crowd that his daughter was sired “in a moment of weakness,” and he has said that if any one of his sons turned out to be gay, “it would be better for him to die in an accident.”
尽管他大多数时间都出在政坛边缘，但他始终不渝地是一个破坏者，总会口出狂言，保准能上头条，其中还包括对自家孩子的煽动性言论。三次结婚的波尔索纳罗是4个男孩和1个女孩的父亲。他曾对群众说，他的女儿是自己“体弱时”受精的，还说如果他的某个儿子成了同性恋，“他宁愿出事故死了”。
outrageous: If you describe something as outrageous, you are emphasizing that it is unacceptable or very shocking. 不可接受的; 令人震惊的
inflammatory: If you accuse someone of saying or doing inflammatory things, you mean that what they say or do is likely to make people react very angrily. 使人激愤的
sire: When a male animal, especially a horse, sires a young animal, he makes a female pregnant so that she gives birth to it. (尤指种马)生殖; 繁殖
Bolsonaro is a routine hurler of insults, prone to branding people, among other things, as vagabundos, akin to Trump’s “losers.” He has called immigrants from Haiti, Africa, and the Middle East “the scum of humanity,” echoing Trump’s comments about “shithole” countries. Also like Trump, Bolsonaro is an ardent foe of environmentalism, promising to eliminate Brazil’s environment ministry and to discard wilderness and indigenous-rights protections, in favor of more economic development, especially for mining interests. He has sworn to withdraw Brazil from the Paris climate accord.
波尔索纳罗经常出口伤人，总给人贴上“浪货”的标签，这差不多相当于特朗普的“失败者”。他把海地、非洲和中东的移民乘坐“人类的渣子”，让人想到特朗普嘴里的“屁眼”国家。波尔索纳罗还和特朗普一样是环保主义的坚定敌人，他扬言要取消巴西环保部，废除荒野和土著权保护，他支持更多的经济开发，尤其是开矿。他发誓让巴西退出《巴黎气候协定》。
Ardent: used to describe someone who has extremely strong feelings about something or someone. 热烈的
swear: If you swear to do something, you promise in a serious way that you will do it. 郑重许诺
Bolsonaro also share’s Trump affinity for autocrats, and he has a fanboy fixation on men in uniform—his Vice-Presidential pick, Antônio Hamilton Mourão, is a retired general. While Trump has gushed over Duterte, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, Bolsonaro has expressed admiration for Augusto Pinochet, the late Chilean dictator, Alberto Fujimori, the Peru’s disgraced former autocrat—and Trump. (Trump is bound to reciprocate the sentiment if Bolsonaro makes it into office.)
波尔索纳罗也像特朗普一样亲近独裁者，有制服控的他挑选安东尼奥·哈密尔顿·莫劳为副总统搭档，莫劳是一位退役将军。特朗普对杜特尔特、普京和金正恩赞不绝口，而波尔索纳罗表达了自己对已故智利独裁者奥古斯托·皮诺切特、蒙羞的秘鲁前独裁者阿尔韦托·藤森和特朗普本人的敬仰。（如果波尔索纳罗当选，特朗普肯定也会如是回敬波尔索纳罗。）
affinity: If you have an affinity with someone or something, you feel that you are similar to them or that you know and understand them very well. 亲切感
gush over: to make an effusive display of affection or enthusiasm an aunt gushing over the baby.
Most distressing of all, Bolsonaro frequently praises the country’s former military dictatorship, which ruled from 1964 to 1985, and has called for its restoration. He has said that, if anything, the dictatorship had been too soft, noting that its “error was that it tortured but didn’t kill.” (In fact, the dictatorship killed hundreds of people, including leftist trade unionists, students, and professors, as well as a small number of guerrillas.) Bolsonaro has described torture as a legitimate practice, going so far as to offer his vote in the impeachment proceedings against Rousseff in honor of one of the dictatorship’s most notorious torturers.
最令人烦恼的是，波尔索纳罗常常赞扬1964年到1985年统治巴西的前军事独裁政权，并呼吁复兴之。他曾说，要说有什么不一样，就是上次的独裁太软弱了，“错就错在酷刑却没有杀戮”。（事实上，前独裁政府屠杀了数百人，其中包括左翼工会主义者、学生和教授以及一些游击队员。）波尔索纳罗认为酷刑是合法行为，甚至在对罗塞夫的弹劾程序中投票向独裁政府最臭名昭著的虐囚者致敬。
Indeed, Bolsonaro’s policies would likely result in the killing of more Brazilians. He advocates relaxing gun-ownership laws, and has said that, as President, he would work to restore the death penalty, which was abolished in 1889, when Brazil became a republic. In some speeches, he has made Duterte-like statements, seeming to endorse the summary execution of criminals by the police.
事实上，波尔索纳罗的政策可能导致更多巴西人被杀。他主张放松枪支管制，曾表示，自己当了总统，会致力于恢复死刑，1889年巴西成为共和国以来就废除了死刑。在一些讲话中，他发表了杜特尔特式的声明，看起来支持警察就地处决罪犯。
summary execution: an execution in which a person is accused of a crime and immediately killed without benefit of a full and fair trial.
In a country where violence and public insecurity are at an all-time high—there were nearly sixty-four thousand homicides last year, giving Brazil one of the highest murder rates in the world—such Dirty Harry sentiments are popular. Bolsonaro’s trademark is a trigger-pulling gesture; some of his followers wear shirts emblazoned with his name and the silhouette of an automatic rifle.
在一个前所未有的暴力肆虐和公共安全恶化的国度——去年近6.4万起谋杀让巴西成为世界上谋杀率最高的国家之一——这种“肮脏的哈里”式的情绪广受欢迎。波尔索纳罗的商标就是开枪，一些追随者的上衣上印着他的名字和一把自动步枪的侧影。
Dirty Harry：美国警匪片。
Earlier this week, another Brazilian friend, the journalist Consuelo Dieguez, trying to explain the Bolsonaro phenomenon, told me that, “because of Brazil’s problems with the economy and security, there are many people who say that the country needs ‘a strong man’ to set the country in order. And so they are prepared to support Bolsonaro, even though he is not a democratic person but someone who defends torture and the dictatorship.” She added, “But they see that the military supports him, and so a portion of the population believes they will solve all of Brazil’s problems together.” Dieguez believes that, because of this logic, “Brazil will end up with an authoritarian government,” and because “Bolsonaro is completely unprepared for the Presidency,” the military will play a big role.
本周初，另一位巴西朋友、记者孔苏埃洛·迪古兹解释波尔索纳罗现象时对我说，“因为巴西的经济和安全问题，许多人表示需要一个‘强人’让国家恢复秩序，因此他们准备支持波尔索纳罗，尽管他不支持民主，他捍卫酷刑和独裁。“她补充说，”但他们认为军方支持他，所以一些人相信他们能一并解决巴西所有问题“。迪古兹认为，因为这种逻辑，”巴西会出现一个独裁政府“，因为”波尔索纳罗根本没准备好当总统“，军方将发挥巨大作用。
On Thursday evening, after the Presidential debate, Dieguez wrote me again. “If Bolsonaro wins in the first round,” she said, “he won’t need to make any concessions with the other political parties. He will be very powerful.”
周四晚间总统辩论结束后，迪古兹又给我回了信。”如果波尔索纳罗第一轮获胜，“她说，”他就不需要向其他政党做出任何妥协。他会变得非常有权力。“
Pinheiro agrees. “Keep in mind, it’s completely different here than in the U.S., where you have strong institutions and the rule of law,” she said. “That, at least, can make it harder for Trump. We don’t have that here. And, for the first time since the return to democracy, none of us really has a clue what is going to happen tomorrow. I am terrified.”
皮涅罗同意这种观点。”别忘了，这里和美国完全不一样，美国还有强大的机构和法治“，她说。”至少特朗普没法为所欲为。我们这里可没有。自从第一次回归民主以来，没人知道明天会发生什么。我感到恐惧。“