纽约时报 | 深圳滑坡给中国成功故事蒙上阴影
《纽约时报》用
房产去库存
山体滑坡、初创企业
给深圳造句
提到了
腾讯、华为、大疆
以及万科
其中的逻辑是……
Shenzhen Landslide Casts Shadow Over China’s Success Story
SHENZHEN, China — With little more than an architect’s drawing and a sales pitch to go by, Tim Chen paid around $500,000 last month for a small apartment being built above a shopping mall on the outskirts of this southern Chinese metropolis.
深圳。上个月，Tim Chen只不过看了建筑图纸，让销售人员一忽悠，就以50万美元的价格在这个中国南部城市郊区的一所购物中心楼上买了一所小公寓。
“I wanted to grab a larger unit in the first batch that went on sale, but I didn’t grab fast enough,” he said in the lobby of the development’s salesroom, echoing an urgency that has gripped many buyers in recent months.
“本想第一批上市时抓个大户型的，可手不够快。”他在开发商销售中心的大厅里说——这印证了几个月来购房者的迫切心理。
Even as the broader Chinese economy has slowed and as housing values have slumped across much of China, the Shenzhen juggernaut has barreled ahead.
中国经济总体放缓，大部分地区房屋价值缩水，可深圳的战车仍隆隆前进，势不可当。
juggernaut: An overwhelming or unstoppable force
barrel: （口语）快速前进。That the European Union barreled ahead was not surprising.
High-tech start-ups replaced the factories that had made the city a pioneering showcase of Chinese-style capitalism. Millions of young people moved here from across the country. Construction is everywhere, with prices of new homes surging.
曾让这个城市成为中国式资本主义先锋标杆的工厂被高科技初创企业取代。数百万年轻人从全国各地来到这里。四处都是工地，新房价格飙涨。
But the on Sunday in Shenzhen, in which a man-made mountain of dirt and construction debris collapsed, is exposing the weaknesses in China’s rapid growth.
但周日发生在深圳致命的山体滑坡——人工堆砌的渣土和建筑废料倒塌——暴露了中国快速发展的弱点。
Disregard for safety standards and environmental regulations remains common despite growing risks, as demonstrated in the Shenzhen disaster, which buried or toppled dozens of buildings and left scores of people missing.
尽管危险日增，忽视安全标准和环境法规仍然普遍。事故掩埋或推倒了几十所建筑，数十人失踪，恰恰证明了这一点。
In Jiazitang village, on the outskirts of Shenzhen, Li Xiuhua, a 21-year-old migrant worker, complained on Wednesday about a deserted construction project next door.
就在本周三，深圳郊区的甲子塘村，22岁的农民工李秀花还抱怨家门口的烂尾楼。
“No one seems to care about this construction site anymore,” Ms. Li said, pointing to the heaps of rubble and construction waste alongside the road. “Since I moved here two years ago, the construction has been stopped and no one has come to clear away this waste.”
李指着路旁成堆的瓦砾和建筑垃圾说：“没人再管这个工地了，我两年前搬来时，这儿就一直停工，没人来清理这些垃圾。”
The landslide in Shenzhen casts a dark shadow over what had come to epitomize the China story, a gleaming metropolis of 11 million people, where only 3.3 million are registered as locals.
深圳山体滑坡给深圳——“中国故事的缩写”——投下阴影。这座有着1100万人口的光怪陆离的大都市，只有330万被当做本地人。
The migrant city, which did not exist a few decades ago, even seemed to defy the country’s current economic problems.
一个几十年前还不曾存在的移民城市，甚至对中国当下的经济问题也免疫。
In November, prices of new homes contracted in 49 of the 70 cities included in the main official survey of the market, data released on Friday showed.
周五发布的数据显示，11月，中国市场统计的70个城市中，49个城市的新房签约价格下跌。
Prices in metropolises like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai fared better than in most places, rising 8 percent to 13 percent from a year earlier.
北京、广州、上海等大都市的价格表现优于大多数城市，同比上涨8%到13%。
But Shenzhen is in a category of its own. Home prices soared 44 percent last month, the fastest rise in any Chinese city since the official survey began in its current form, in 2011.
可深圳自有其逻辑。上个月深圳房价上涨44%，创下自2011年官方开始房价统计以来最快增幅。
The property market has become a vexing political issue at the highest levels. This month, the Politburo of the governing Communist Party announced plans to address an enormous housing overstock nationally, including relaxing restrictions on internal migration to help create demand for homes in outlying cities.
房地产市场成为中国高层最忧虑的政治问题。本月，中央宣布要解决巨大的房地产库存问题，包括放宽国内流动限制，提振边缘城市的购房需求。
But the frenzy in Shenzhen highlights the difficulties that China faces as it tries to manage a crucial engine of the economy.
深圳的疯狂景象凸显了中国试图管理其核心经济引擎时面临的困境。
The runaway expansion in real estate and construction in recent years — and their slowdown more recently — has led to serious problems with industrial overcapacity and rising debt.
近年来，房地产和建筑业无序扩张，近来又放缓，这与产能过剩和负债过高共同导致了严重的问题。
In the Shenzhen disaster, the deadly mound of debris was created to fix another problem, the haphazard and sometimes dangerous .
在深圳灾难中，致命的渣土堆由危险的渣土和建筑垃圾构成。
Compared with the rest of China, “Shenzhen has a much higher reputation for dotting its i’s and crossing its t’s, and being much more business-friendly,” said Christopher Balding, an associate professor at Peking University HSBC Business School who has been based in Shenzhen for nearly seven years.
和中国其他城市相比，“深圳精益求精的名声更好，也更宜商。”在深圳近七年的北京大学汇丰商学院副教授Christopher Balding说。
“At the same time, I’m not surprised something like this happened, because even in Shenzhen buildings are just flying up.”
“但是，发生这种事也并不令人吃惊，就算在深圳，房子也忽忽地拔地而起。”
Shenzhen is the ultimate symbol of modern China’s economic transformation.
深圳是现代中国经济转型的终极象征。
The city, which was only a coastal fishing village when the country started reopening to the world in the late 1970s, leapfrogged ahead of China’s other metropolises on the path of capitalism thanks to its status as a special economic zone, separated from the rest of the country by an internal border.
上世纪七十年代末，中国对外开放之初，这里不过是一个沿海的小渔村。被定为经济特区并和内地区隔开后，深圳在资本主义的大道上跨越式前进，一举超越中国其他大城市。
Tax breaks, cheap land and proximity to Hong Kong lured foreign investment. Many millions of migrants from other parts of China provided an able supply of low-cost labor.
税收减免、土地廉价、毗邻香港，这些对外国投资都颇具吸引力。来自中国各处的成百上千万移民为它提供了有效的廉价劳动力。
In recent years, the area has also transitioned more smoothly than others to the latest phase in China’s development, a growth model that revolves around services and consumer spending.
近年来，这一区域更平稳地“腾笼换鸟”，发展出以服务及消费支出为中心的增长模式。
The factories churning out lower-value products like garments and shoes are closing down, relocating inland or heading to cheaper destinations like Southeast Asia and Bangladesh.
大批生产服装、鞋类等低附加值产品的工厂关闭，向内地转移或直接前往更廉价的东南亚和孟加拉国等地。
In their place, dynamic companies have arisen to cater to China’s rising consumer classes.
在深圳，富有活力的公司涌现出来，它们服务于中国日益增长的消费者阶层。
Tencent, the social messaging and online gaming behemoth, counts Shenzhen as its home base. So do DJI, the world’s biggest consumer drone maker; Citic Securities, heralded as China’s answer to Goldman Sachs despite recently; the Ping An Group, an insurance and financial conglomerate; and China Vanke, one of the country’s biggest homebuilders.
社交媒体和网络游戏巨擘腾讯落户深圳。这里还有世界最大的消费级无人机制造商大疆、号称中国的“高盛”中信证券（近来被调查）、保险和金融大鳄平安集团，还有中国最大的房地产商之一万科。
The transformation is evident in places like Longhua, where the housing development Unitown is under construction. For decades, the district was part of greater Shenzhen.
正在开发Unitown项目的龙华新区，其转变更加令人瞩目。几十年来，这里是大深圳地区的一部分。
But it sat on the less-developed side of the internal border that separated the core economic zone downtown from the rest of the city, a barrier that migrant workers from outside Shenzhen were restricted from crossing.
龙华坐落在欠发达的内陆一侧，和经济核心区一线相隔，深圳以外的民工进入核心区曾受到限制。
But in the five years since Shenzhen’s internal border controls were abandoned, Longhua evolved into a thriving residential suburb.
但深圳取消内陆边界控制五年后，龙华新区发展成欣欣向荣的住宅区。
An office worker who would provide only her given name, Xia, recently bought a large three-bedroom apartment at Unitown.
一个姓夏的职员最近在Unitown买了一所大三居。
She and her husband are upgrading from a smaller unit in the same district, where she has lived for about a decade. Their son will be able to walk to school in a few minutes.
这是她和丈夫的改善性住房。他们在龙华区住了十年。现在，儿子步行几分钟就能到学校了。
“We only looked for apartments in Longhua, because it’s so convenient,” she said. Because of rapidly rising prices, she had to take out a larger mortgage. “That puts a lot of pressure on me,” Xia said.
“我们只在龙华看了房，因为这里很方便。”由于迅速增长的房价，她不得不按揭了一大笔钱。“这让我压力很大。”
Shenzhen’s housing market has always been considerably more volatile than that of most of the rest of the country.
深圳的楼市比大多数其他地区都更加反复无常。
“Shenzhen has the least amount of state-owned land of any major Chinese city, and that makes it hard for the government to direct market prices by controlling the supply of land available for development,” said Michael Cole, an expert on the Chinese property market who operates the industry website .
“与中国主要城市相比，深圳的国有土地持有最少，政府很难通过控制土地开发数量来指导房价。”中国房地产市场专家、行业网站Mingtiandi.com的运营者Michael Cole说。
“The government in Shenzhen also appears less strict in the way that they interpret and enforce home purchase restrictions.”
“深圳政府也不特别干预房价，不严格执行限购。”
China’s central bank moved in March to ease restrictions in most cities that require buyers of second homes to make a down payment of up to 70 percent of the value of the home, lowering the threshold to 40 percent.
三月，中国央行放松了大多数城市的购房限制，此前二套房首付要求不低于房产价值的70%，现在门槛下降到40%。
But in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen, where housing demand remains high, those restrictions are supposed to remain largely in place.
但诸如北京、上海或深圳等房屋需求刚性的一线城市，限购料仍继续。
However, in interviews, many real estate agents and home buyers in Shenzhen said those restrictions had generally been relaxed for people who are buying a second home because they intended to upgrade.
然而，深圳许多地产中介和购房者接受采访时表示，对购买改善性二套住房的人，限制基本已经放开。
“Shenzhen’s is the freest market in China,” said Zhang Jianwei, a sales agent at Colorful Garden, a new development of more than 500 apartments in the city center.
“深圳是中国最自由的市场”，Colorful Garden的销售员张建伟说。Colorful Garden是市中心新开发的小区，有超过500套住宅。
“Prices rise the fastest, but also fall the fastest,” he added. “It’s capitalism first.”
“价格上涨最快，跌得也最快。资本主义至上。”他补充道。