2016：世界政坛的20%法则
The 20 Percent World
By John Micklethwait
译者注：20%是个挺神的数据，经济学家帕累托根据意大利80%的财富由20%的人拥有提出帕累托原理，后来又有了管理学中著名的”80/20法则“。在私募行业，还有个”2-20“法则，即私募基金管理公司收取基金规模2%左右的管理费和投资收益部分的20%的作为佣金收入(carry)。20%只是一个数字吗？还是冥冥中暗含着某些含义？
这篇彭博的年度展望稿与众不同，尽管美国大选、英国退欧等话题难堪新颖，把世界定义为“20%”却颇让人摸不着头脑。兴许作者读过塔勒布的《黑天鹅：如何应对不可预知的未来》或是《随机漫步的傻瓜》，可认为“黑天鹅”的概率”高“达20%大抵算的上”破坏性创新“。统计的确是个不大亲切的事，想想看，如果高速公路事故率达20%，你一定觉得简直上演了”速度与激情“，可如果降水概率20%，恐怕你压根也不会拎一把伞出来。
说特朗普有20%的可能当选总统，这又意味着什么呢？如果美国宪法规定可以有五位美国总统，那么特朗普肯定是五巨头之一吗？倒不妨仔细想想，看从这里出发能得出些什么有趣的结论来。
还要想想是不是忽略了什么隐变量？金融危机前，惠誉、标普、穆迪给次级贷衍生品的评级清一色的AAA。单独看来，次级贷被分拆打包后，孤立的”黑天鹅“违约事件的确不会导致全盘瘫痪，可他们恰恰忘记（或故意忘记）这一群”黑天鹅“并不真正是孤立的，一个债务人”因病返穷“不会导致灾难，可恐慌情绪一旦蔓延，所有的”黑天鹅“让违约几率几何级增长。
世间万事，可能发生者，从来欲罢不能，况且可以熔断的少之又少。
If you want to pick a number for 2016, how about 20 percent? Look around the politics of the Western world, and you'll see that a lot of once-unthinkable ideas and fringe candidates suddenly have a genuine chance of succeeding.
如果为2016年选一个数字，20%如何？环顾西方世界政治，你会发现许多曾经不可想象的想法和边缘候选人一跃而真的有望成功。
The odds are usually somewhere around one in five -- not probable, but possible. This “20 percent world” is going to set the tone in democracies on both sides of the Atlantic -- not least because, as anybody who bets on horse racing will tell you, eventually one of these longshots is going to canter home.
通常几率在五分之一左右——虽不大可能发生，却有可能性。这个“20%的世界”将为大西洋两岸的民主国家定调，至少因为总有一个高风险的赌注最终凯旋，赌马的人会这样告诉你。
Start with President Donald Trump. Gamblers, who have been much better at predicting political results than pollsters, currently put the odds of the hard-to-pin-down-but-generally-right-wing billionaire reaching the White House at around 6-1, or 17 percent.
首先是“总统”特朗普。在赌徒眼中，他们比民意调查预测更准，目前这位“难以定义却总体偏右翼”的亿万富翁入主白宫的赔率是6比1，或者说17%。
Interestingly, those are roughly the same odds as the ones offered on Jeremy Corbyn, the most left-wing leader of the Labour Party for a generation, becoming the next British prime minister.
颇有意思，他们认为一代人以来工党最“左”的领袖科尔宾成为英国首相的几率也差不多如此。
In France, gamblers put the likelihood of Marine Le Pen winning France’s presidency in 2017 at closer to 25 percent, partly because the right-wing populist stands an extremely good chance of reaching the runoff.
在法国，赌徒们认为勒庞在2017年当选法国总统的可能性接近25%，部分原因在于这位右翼民粹主义者进入决选的机会极大。
Geert Wilders, another right-wing populist previously described as “fringe,” perhaps stands a similar chance of becoming the next Dutch prime minister.
此前被认为处于“边缘”的右翼民粹政治家Geert Wilders当选下一届荷兰总理的几率可能也差不多如此。
Other once-unthinkable possibilities could rapidly become realities. America’s version of Corbyn, Bernie Sanders, whom Trump recently described as a “wacko,” is currently trading around 5 percent, no worse than Jeb Bush.
还有不少曾经难以想象的事会迅速成为现实。美国版的“科尔宾”伯尼·桑德斯——最近特朗普称他为“怪胎”——目前支持率在5%上下，不逊于杰布·布什。
Plus, Sanders has assembled the sort of Corbynite coalition of students, pensioners and public-sector workers that tends to outperform in primaries. If Hillary Clinton stumbles into another scandal, the Democrats could yet find themselves with a socialist contending for the national ticket.
还有，桑德斯集聚了科尔宾式的联盟：学生、退休工人、公务人员，在初选中有望超常发挥。如果希拉里·克林顿陷如另一个丑闻，民主党人只好接受一位社会主义者去竞选总统了。
And it’s not just “wacko” candidates; some unthinkable events are also distinctly possible. This year, perhaps as early as June, Britain may vote to leave the European Union.
不只是“怪胎”候选人，一些不可想象的事也会发生。就在今年，可能早至六月，英国会投票脱离欧盟。
Bookmakers still expect the country to go for the status quo, though most pundits are less certain about this than they were about the Scottish referendum in 2014, which turned out to be an uncomfortably close race for the British establishment.
开赌盘的人仍预测国家将保持现状，尽管大多数书呆子没有2014年苏格兰公投时那么自信——苏格兰公投对英国现有体制而言是一场赢得勉强的竞赛。（译者注：55%反对独立、45%支持独立）
Investors are used to the political world serving up surprises. These surprises, however, have usually involved one mainstream party doing much better or worse than expected -- and things continuing as normal.
投资者习惯于令人惊讶的政治世界。然而这些惊讶通常都是一个主流政党比预想的干得好或干的糟，然后一切如常。
Not this time. With Trump in charge, America would have a wall along the Rio Grande and could well be stuck in a trade war with China.
这次不同。如果特朗普上台，美国会在格兰德界河旁修一堵墙，并和中国打一场贸易战。
Le Pen wants to take France out of the euro and renegotiate France's membership in the EU.
勒庞想让法国脱离欧元区，重新谈判法国加入欧盟的条件。
It’s hard to tell what would do more damage to the City of London: a Brexit that could lead to thousands of banking jobs moving to the continent; or a Corbyn premiership, which could include a maximum wage and the renationalization of Britain’s banks, railways and energy companies.
退出欧盟，数千个银行岗位将会回到欧洲大陆；科尔宾上台，会推行最高工资和英国银行、铁路、能源国有化：很难说哪种情况对伦敦市的伤害更大。
Moreover, in the 20 percent world, some nasty possibilities make others more likely. If Britain leaves the European Union, Scotland (which, unlike England, would probably have voted to stay in) might in turn try to leave Britain.
在20%的世界中，某些糟糕的事可能会让另外一些坏事的可能性增加。如果欧洲退出欧盟，苏格兰可能也要退出英国。和英格兰不同，苏格兰很可能投票选择留在欧盟。
If Le Pen manages to pull France out of the euro, the union’s chances of dissolution increase.
如果勒庞设法让法国退出欧元区，欧盟解体的可能性会增加。
And you can only guess what a President Trump would do to U.S. relations with Latin America and the Muslim world.
特朗普“总统”会对美国与拉丁美洲关系、与穆斯林世界关系造成什么影响，想想看吧。
The conventional wisdom from political elites is that voters will consider these possibilities, wise up and pull back from the unthinkable.
照政治精英们的传统智慧，选民们会考虑这些可能性，变得聪明一点，从而不让这些难以想象的事发生。
The mandarins are not wrong: The gambling markets show that Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio are more likely to become president than Donald Trump, just as they show that Britain is more likely to stay in the European Union than not.
话说的没错：赌博市场显示希拉里和卢比奥成为美国总统的可能性比特朗普大得多，英国留在欧盟的可能性也比退出大得多。
But there’s also plenty of evidence that across the Western world, voters are furious with the established parties and choices -- and much more willing to consider extreme solutions, especially when put forward by politicians who “tell it like it is” and seem genuine, either because they say the unthinkable (Trump and Wilders) or have stuck to their principles, no matter how outdated they seem (Corbyn and Sanders).
可在西方世界，还是有不少证据显示，选民对现有政党和政策愤怒不堪，他们更愿意考虑一些极端方案，尤其这些方案是那些“老实说”的政治家。他们看起来真诚，说出那些不可想象的事（特朗普和Wilders），或是坚持自己的原则，无论这些原则看起来是否过时（科尔宾和桑德斯）。
Indeed, fringe candidates have already started to take power in some smaller countries. Five years ago, Alexis Tsipras, a Marxist demagogue, was treated with as much disdain by Greece’s established politicians as Sanders was by the Bush family.
事实上，边缘候选人已经开始在一些小国掌权。五年前，希腊主流政客对马克思主义宣传家阿列克西斯·齐普拉斯不屑一顾，正如布什家族对桑德斯一样。
But Tsipras’s hard-left Syriza party won Greece’s election in January 2015 and drove it into a collision with Germany that nearly led to Greece leaving the European Union.
2015年1月，齐普拉斯率领的极左翼Syriza党赢得希腊大选，与德国发生碰撞，几乎让希腊离开欧盟。
Hungary is now ruled by Viktor Orban, who has promised to build “an illiberal state.” Nationalist-populists also rule in Poland and have a share of government in Switzerland and Finland.
匈牙利现在被维克多·奥班统治，后者承诺建立一个“非自由主义国家”。民族民粹主义者还统治着波兰，在瑞典和芬兰的政府里也有一席之地。
Put another way, it’s hard to dismiss a “Brexit” or a Trump presidency as a complete surprise. Trump has been atop the Republican polls for several months. Most big banks are already working on a Plan B in case the City of London finds itself no longer in the EU.
换言之，很难把“英国退欧”和“特朗普当选”视作完全不可思议的事。特朗普连续几个月居共和党民调之首；多数大银行已经做了B计划，一旦伦敦市不在属于欧盟。
The unease that has brought us to this point is not going to abate. On both sides of the Atlantic, even when economies are growing, voters across the political spectrum are unnerved by broadly the same things, including inequality and globalization (especially immigration and trade).
让我们不安的因素并未减弱。在大西洋两岸，即便经济增长，各色政治派别的选民一样焦躁不安，这些因素包括不平等、全球化，尤其是移民和贸易。
If you’re worried about your job and your children’s future, you can be pulled leftward to Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders, or to the right by Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen.
如果你忧虑失业或担心孩子的未来，你会向左转向科尔宾和桑德斯，也可能向右转向特朗普和勒庞。
Corruption and inefficiency -- whether in the form of America’s money politics or the EU’s lack of accountability -- partly explain why the ills of the Western world have not been solved. But another reason is that problems like inequality don't lend themselves to easy or swift resolution.
无论是金钱政治的美国还是缺乏责任的欧盟，腐败和低效都部分解释了西方世界的痼疾何以未被根除。可另一个原因在于像不平等这样的问题没有速效药。
A generation doesn’t become educated overnight; an economic realignment brought about by technology doesn’t resolve itself in short order. In other words, the 20 percent world is here to stay. Get used to it.
一代人不会一夜间就训练有素，技术带来的经济调整也不会短期内完成。换言之，这就是个20%的世界，习惯就好。