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拜登若赢了川普最终当选,美版“垂帘听政”将正式上演

雨中红莲 2021-02-11

美国大选的形势对特朗普越来越不利。老迈年高的拜登正在冲向270张选举人票的终点线。

落后的特朗普不服气,说投票和选票统计中有舞弊现象。然而,观众都在前台,并不知道拜登到底有没有服用“兴奋剂”,反正,现在就看到拜登的胸脯离那条线越来越近了。

想拽住拜登已经不可能了。按自然节奏,拜登获得270张票已近乎没有悬念。至于“尿检”,只能由身心疲惫但斗志不减的特朗普,特朗普竞选团队,以及坚定支持特朗普的共和党人,去诉诸司法裁决。这次大选结果的合法判定,很可能要打到最高法院。



通过这次大选,美国社会的严重撕裂已经淋漓尽致地展现在世人眼前。每个参与到投票中的美国人都在捍卫自己的权益。这看似场面混乱,但恰恰说明了民主的价值所在。否则,岂不等于说,因为一个运动健将的猝死,就可以得出“生命在于静止”的宏论?

对于有些国家、有些人的幸灾乐祸,左媒旗舰《纽约时报》就不失时机地援引普京支持者的观感来评论美国大选,认为,特朗普关于大选充斥舞弊的虚假断言,或许是民主会带来灾难这一说法迄今为止的最佳证据。

这是存粹的屁话。美国这次选举固然有几分现眼,但它却不是俄罗斯的某些人有资格说三道四的,正像太监对别人的性生活没有任何发言权一样。真正有发言权的,就算不是唐伯虎和秋香,也得是西门庆和潘金莲,轮不到你李莲英。

现在距离明年1月20日还有70天,从不乐观的分析看,这或许是特朗普呆在白宫的最后两个多月。即便走司法途径,在1月20日之前确定下谁当选总统也是大概率事件。现在没有人能断言特朗普彻底没戏,但是,大选的天平已经开始向拜登倾斜。

有时候,你所认为最坏的情况未必就是最坏的。最坏的情况很可能不是李冬宝当上新主编,而是竞选主编这件事压根儿就是个泡儿。之所以如此,就是因为有些更坏的情况你还没有想到。

但是,没想到,不等于不存在

在支持特朗普的人看来,拜登当选将是“非常糟糕”的。很显然,这是他们拿拜登和特朗普比较,如果拜登真的能像另外两位民主党总统克林顿和奥巴马那样去掌管白宫,这倒也符合逻辑。但事实并非如此,拜登当选,意味着他入主白宫,但是,他真的能成为当年的克林顿和前些年的奥巴马吗?



拜登虽然是华盛顿政治圈中的老油条,但是就能力和个人魅力来说,他既比不了克林顿,也不如奥巴马。这次他的得票,无论是普选票还是选举人票,都超过特朗普,但这并不意味着拜登本人多么受欢迎,而是因为很多人特别讨厌特朗普。



应当说,选前的一种主流分析并没有错,与其说选民是在特朗普和拜登之间比优劣,不如说是喜欢特朗普的人和讨厌特朗普的人在比人数。如果前者比后者多,特朗普将获得连任;反之,他将卷铺盖走人,成为自克林顿以来,唯一一个未能获得连任的美国总统。

简言之,如果特朗普败选,可以说,是他的右手败给了左手。说明,多数美国人已经无法忍受他再在白宫里坐上四年。只要他能下去,选谁当总统都无所谓。

投票前,很多人戏称拜登会是白等,从现在看,白等只差一步就将变成白捡

纵观选前各种阵仗,拜登跟特朗普比差的岂止是行动力,更是火爆的人气。但是投票后的情况则完全相反,开票后的节节攀升和多州的最后齐刷刷翻蓝,只能说明两种情况,要么是拜登属于那种特别“低调”的人,明明是亿万富翁,偏偏要扮成要饭的,要么就是,拜登对大选结果早就成竹在胸,我就闲庭信步了,由着你特朗普折腾去,咱就看结果了。



既然拜登成不了克林顿和奥巴马,那么,他现在一只脚已经踏进白宫,将来美国的行政大权将如何来掌?

这就到了最核心的问题,民主党给拜登配了怎样一位搭档?在国会山具有很重发言权的民主党大佬又是怎样地力挺拜登?再过两个星期,拜登就要庆贺78岁生日,等到他正式上任后,将很快迎来自己的80大寿。对于拜登,难道民主党只想到了德高望重,却忘记了垂垂老矣的人生规律吗?

忘记后者不可能,牢记只要有接班人就不怕没柴烧才是真。拜登老矣,但60后的哈里斯正当年。



副总统候选人哈里斯今年刚满56岁,正是混政坛风华正茂的年龄。以拜登的年龄,如果他在任内因健康原因无法继续履行总统职务,甚至在更严重的情况下挂掉在工作岗位上,都并非没有可能。而如果发生这种情况,哈里斯将根据宪法直接接任总统职务,就像当年肯尼迪遇刺两小时后,副总统约翰逊即在空军一号的机舱内宣誓就任总统。

如果哈里斯有一半的可能从拜登手中接过总统权力,那么,她成为拜登身后的影子、成为能量最大的副总统的可能性将是百分之百。


哈里斯有着扎实的个人经历,身为律师的她曾担任第32任加州总检察长,2016年11月在参议院选举中击败同党候选人洛雷塔·桑切斯,成为美国参议院第一位印度裔和第二名非裔女性参议员。2020年8月11日,被拜登从11位女性候选者中,选择为其2020年大选竞选搭档、副总统参选人。


哈里斯的能力自不用说,心气也甚高。据说,2016年有记者问她,如果将来拜登请你当竞选搭档,你意下如何?心高气傲的哈里斯回答道,他当我的副手还差不多。

拜登当初挑选哈里斯,放着包括联邦参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦、密歇根州州长格蕾琴·惠特默这样颇有竞争力的白人女性不用,很主要一个原因就是看中了她的族裔背景。哈里斯父亲是牙买加裔黑人移民,母亲是来自印度南部的泰米尔人移民,都是各自领域的专家,哈里斯的少数族裔出身和她的良好教育背景结合起来,正好提供了一个对年轻民主党人最有吸引力的样板。



美国副总统历来被称为是“站在总统背后的人”,与国务卿这些重要的内阁阁员比起来,常常显得位高却存在感不强。但是,副总统又被称为与总统只隔着“一口呼吸”的人,毕竟在宪法规定的总统顺位继承者中,副总统排在第一位。

并且,事在人为,作为同时兼任参议院议长的副总统,是总统的左膀右臂和重要阁员,究竟能量能发挥到多大,完全看其个人的能力特别是与总统的关系。哈里斯是什么?与拜登这位政治老人相比,那是完全的民主党少壮派。可以预见,拜登如果入主白宫,他的重要依赖对象之一就是哈里斯。

不仅如此,在民主党大佬们看来,哈里斯更是重要的后备军。拜登重用哈里斯既是身为老龄总统的必须,更是党交给的光荣任务。从某种程度说,拜登在担任总统的同时,对中文名唤“贺锦丽”的哈里斯,还负有“扶上马,再送一程”的重要使命。很多人预测,副总统只是哈里斯的跳板,这位黑人女政治精英已经盯上2024年大选。



除了哈里斯,还有一个人物更加重量级,那就是民主党政治老人、在国会山树大根深的现任众议院议长佩洛西。

佩洛西憎恨特朗普,在她于2019年二度出任众议院议长后,与特朗普的斗争就更加激烈。把特朗普赶出白宫是她朝思暮想的事儿,之前有人问她,如果特朗普败选后赖在白宫不走,怎么办?佩洛西毫不犹疑地说,那就用放烟雾把他熏出来。

今年初,在特朗普在国会发表完演讲后,佩洛西坐在特朗普背后,当着电视镜头把演讲副本一撕两半。她说,演讲中充斥着令人无法接受的谎言。



这次大选,在共和党大佬为特朗普站台寥寥的情况下,佩洛西可是不遗余力,全力为拜登造势。就在投票日几天前,她在国会山举行的新闻发布会上说,不管投票结果如何,拜登都将担任下届美国总统。

这使得人们产生了歧义,佩洛西说这话,是说不管幅度大小,拜登都将战胜特朗普,还是不小心把实话说出来:大选结果已定不管特朗普想不想让位,总统宝座都是民主党的了?

佩洛西太想让白宫也成为民主党的地盘了。这一两年,她去白宫就是和特朗普争执,有次特朗普连说了十几遍“南希”都没拦住她火气十足的话头。可是,如果拜登当选,在众议院一言九鼎的佩洛西再去白宫,就跟回自己家一样,拜登对这位扶自己上位的大姐大还不得毕恭毕敬? 



白宫有哈里斯,国会有佩洛西,一少一老两个女人,从资历上说有浅有深,但是从心气上说没一个是省油的灯。面对这样的组合,将很快在白宫迎来80岁大寿的拜登,真的能把总统的权力滴水不漏地掌握在自己手里?老骥伏枥、大展宏图恐怕是正片前面的广告,而两个女人一台戏的美版“垂帘听政”才是真正的大戏。

有这样的组合,美国未来政治向左继续倾斜的力道将不可避免地加大

拜登当然不会只是坐在椭圆形办公室发呆,但是,他也绝对不会是又一个克林顿或奥巴马。因为哈里斯和佩洛西这两架马车已经决定了这一点

希拉里当年没有实现的愿望,四年后的今天很可能由哈里斯和佩洛西来完成,这也算是继承“先烈”遗志吧。

现在,大选结果在最后的胶着中,特朗普只能背水一战,而拜登却在背着手踱步。在选情激烈的内华达州,5日晚,数名特朗普支持者在该州克拉克县选举中心外跪地祈祷,希望特朗普获胜。

天无绝人之路,但大选必须分出胜负。在拜登胜券在握之时,“东宫”和“西宫”已经在摩拳擦掌。

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Just trust yourself, then you will know how to live. 只要相信自己,你就会懂得如何去生活。114. In life it's not where you go. It's who you travel with. 生命中,重要的不是你去哪里,而是与谁同行。115. Life is like a rainbow. You don't always know what's on the other side, but you know it's there. 生活像一道彩虹,你不知道另一端通向哪里,但你会知道,它总是在那里。116. When the world says,"Give up!"Hope whispers,"Try it one more time." 当全世界都在说“放弃”的时候,希望却在耳边轻轻地说:“再试一次吧”!117. I don't care about other questions and I just try to be myself. 我不在乎别人的质疑,我只会做好自己。118. Attempt doesn't necessarily bring success, but giving up definitely leads to failure. 努力不一定成功,但放弃一定失败!119. The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today. 对明天最好的准备就是今天做到最好。120. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. 你已经一无所有,没有什么道理不顺心而为。(乔布斯) 121. Life is a journey, one that is much better traveled with a companion by our side. 人生是一场旅程,我们最好结伴同行。122. Sometimes you have to fall before you can fly. 有时候,你得先跌下去,才能飞起来。123. If you are able to appreciate beauty in the ordinary, your life will be more vibrant. 如果你擅于欣赏平凡中的美好,你的生活会更加多姿多彩。124. Be who you are, and never ever apologize for that! 坚持做自己,并永远不要为此而后悔!125. Consider the bad times as down payment for the good times. Hang in there. 把苦日子当做好日子的首付,坚持就是胜利!126. Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger. 与其祈求生活平淡点,还不如祈求自己强大点。127. Everybody can fly without wings when they hold on to their dreams. 坚持自己的梦想,即使没有翅膀也能飞翔。128. There is no such thing as a great talent without great will power. 没有伟大的意志力,便没有雄才大略。129. You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it. 境遇难以改变,你能改变的唯有面对它时的态度。130. Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. 凡是值得做的事,就值得做好。131. Perfection is not just about control.It's also about letting go. 完美不仅在于控制,也在于释放。《黑天鹅》 132. Dream is what makes you happy, even when you are just trying. 梦想就是一种让你感到坚持就是幸福的东西。133. Never frown,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile. 别愁眉不展,因为你不知道谁会爱上你的笑容。134. It's easy once you know how. 一旦你明白,就会很简单。135. In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different. 要做到不可替代,就要与众不同。136. I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate. 宁愿失败地做你爱做的事情,也不要成功地做你恨做的事情。(George Burns) 137. Don't hide. Run! You'll make it to tomorrow. 别躲避,奔跑吧,你就会找到明天。138. Life comes with many challenges.The ones that should not scare us are the ones we can take on and take control of. 生活充满了挑战,唯有勇敢面对并自我掌控,我们才能克服恐惧。(安吉丽娜·朱莉) 139. Life doesn't just happen to you; you receive everything in your life based on what you've given. 一切发生在你身上的都不是碰巧。你获得什么,在于你付出了什么。140.You are more beautiful than you think. 你,要比你想象的更美丽。141. Throughout life's complications, you should maintain such a sense of elegance. 不管生活有多不容易,你都要守住自己的那一份优雅。142. When you feel like giving up, remember why you held on so long in the first place. 每当你想要放弃的时候,就想想是为了什么才一路坚持到现在。143. Enjoy your youth.You'll never be younger than you are at this very moment. 好好享受青春,你再也不会有哪个时刻会比此时更年轻了。144. You'd better bring, cause I'll bring every I've got it. 你最好全神贯注,因为我定会全力以赴!145. Take time to enjoy the simple things in life. 慢慢享受生活中的简单。146. As long as you are still alive, you will definitely encounter the good things in life. 只要活着就一定会遇上好事。147. Hold on, it gets better than you know. 挺住,事情会比你想像中要好!148. If you are fine,the sun will always shine. 你若安好,便是晴天。149. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 磨难会让你更强大。150. Every life deserves our respect. 每一个生命都应该被尊重。151. The best feeling in the world is when you know your heart is smiling. 世间最美好的感受,就是发现自己的心在笑。152. Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. 永远不要低估一颗冠军的心。(Rudy Tomjanovich) 153. There is nothing permanent except change. 唯一不变的是变化。154. The difference between successful persons and others is that they really act. 成功者和其他人最大的区别就是,他们真正动手去做了。155. Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. 不要随波逐流,要引领潮流。(Margaret Thatcher) 156. People pay in advance for a coffee meant for someone who cannot afford a warm beverage. 人们提前买咖啡,让付不起的人享受温暖。157. No one is born a genius.Just keep on doing what you like and that itself is a talent. 哪有什么天才!坚持做你喜欢的事情,这本身就是一种天赋。(大野智) 158. The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page. 世界是一本书,不旅行的人只读了其中一页。159. You can create something more glorious than the championship. 你可以创造比冠军更荣耀的事。160. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. 永远没有第二次机会,给人留下第一印象。161. You can always be a worse version of "him", or better version of yourself. 你不是要做一个单纯优秀的人,而是要做一个不可替代的人。162. Give every day the chance to become the most beautiful day of your life. 让每一天都有机会成为你人生中最美好的一天。163. Honesty is the best policy. 做人以诚信为本。164. To a crazy ship all winds are contrary. 对于一只漫无目标的船而言,任何方向的风都是逆风。165. The outer world you see is a reflection of your inner self. 你看到什么样的世界,你就拥有什么样的内心。166. Strike while the iron is hot. 趁热打铁。167. Knowing what you cannot do is far more important than knowing what you are capable of. 知道自己不能做什么远比知道自己能做什么重要。168. People cry, not because they're weak. It's because they've been strong for too long. 哭泣,不代表脆弱,只因坚强了太久。169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Like many who lived through the war, they had experienced enough excitement that, when it was over, they desired simply to settle down, raise a family, and lead a less eventful life. They had little money, so they moved to Wisconsin and lived with Paul’s parents for a few years, then headed for Indiana, where he got a job as a machinist for International Harvester. His passion was tinkering with old cars, and he made money in his spare time buying, restoring, and selling them. Eventually he quit his day job to become a full-time used car salesman. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later来源:小兵说天下

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