三位右翼候选人谁能与Phil Goff抗衡？
(编者按）随着地方政府 10 月选举日的临近，大奥克兰市市长一职的竞争日趋激烈。各种民调显示，现任国会议员、有着资深内阁部长背景的菲尔·高夫(Phil Goff)呼声最高，根据目前的态势，他顺利当选大奥克兰市市长应无悬念。
那么三位“右翼”候选人当中谁会是他的竞争对手呢？
与上一届地方政府选举不同，这次有三位候选人都来自右翼，分别是 Victoria Crone,John Palino 和 Mark Thomas。毫无疑问，这三个候选人同台竞选，彼此分流票源，倒是帮了对手的忙。
《国家商业周刊》(National Business Review) 2016 年 8 月 9 号刊登民调，问读者如果在这三位右翼候选人当中选市长谁得票最高？结果发现 Crone 得票率 60% , Palino 得票率24%，Thomas则为15%。
于是，有意见人士呼吁，他们三人当中应该有两位主动退出竞选，以便有一个强有力的候选人和 Phil Goff 抗衡。
《国家商业周刊》还发表了记者与奥克兰市 《Metro》杂志主编 Simon Wilson 的访谈，主要内容有以下三点：
第一：主编表示，他今天在采访总理约翰·基(Prime Minister John Key)的时候，非常吃惊的发现总理不愿为右翼候选人Vic Crone 背书。看起来这位务实的总理似乎在为未来与资深内阁部长、工党前领袖 Phil Goff 合作铺平道路。
第二：从竞选策略而言，三个右翼候选人当中应该有一到两个退出，才能够使另外一个有效抗衡 Phil Goff。从目前民调支持率来看，应该考虑退出的首当 Palino 和Thomas。但是这两位肯吗？
总编分析：Palino， 美国人，餐饮业老板，上一届选举得108,000 票，仅次于当选布朗市长，居第二位。布朗市长当选后不久被卷入绯闻，而Palino所面临的媒体尴尬提问便是为何与这位风波的女主角深夜在泊车场晤谈，但Palino否认自己有任何不当行为。
而 Thomas 呢？也是餐饮业的老板， 1996 年和 2011 年两次试图以国家党候选人身份竞选国会议员，但是都没有得到国家党的支持。
第三：四位候选人对大奥克兰市“统一规划” (Unitary Plan) 的态度？
目前 Phil Goff 和 Vic Crone 都是持支持态度 —— 尽管许多选民对这个计划并不买账。而 John Palino 和 Mark Thomas 都对这项计划提出批评。就 Palino 而言，虽然反对统一规划，但是他却在讲话当中表示奥克兰应该建造更多的卫星城 —— 而这正是统一规划里所包含的规划内容。
那么 Thomas 呢？他也是反对统一规划但是对奥克兰的发展前景却模棱两可不明就里。这两位当中谁有可能退出？这位主编表示，Palino 不会退出因为他不属于任何一个竞选阵营。Thomas 呢？估计也不会。
因此，支持右翼阵营的人表示可惜，因为三个右翼候选人同台竞争，只可能分流票源。与此同时，从 Phil Goff 的蓝色竞选广告牌来看，他已经将政治立场移向中间偏右了。
（以上导读仅供参考，附 National Business Review 原文如下）
Vic Crone is NBR readers' clear favourite among the three right-wing candidates taking on Phil Goff for the Auckland mayoralty.
The former Chorus and Spark executive gained 60% support in our Business Pulse poll, well ahead of restauranteur and reality TV star John Palino and Orakei and local board member and restauranteur Mark Thomas.
Metro editor-at-large Simon Wilson says he’s surprised John Key declined to endorse Vic Crone during a media interview yesterday. Mr Key instead said he could work with either Ms Crone or Phil Goff. It seems the pragmatic prime minister is laying the groundwork for a good working relationship with the former Labour leader, who is well ahead on current polling.
"Mark Thomas is a paid up member of the National Party and has been for at least 20 years – and yet the National Party does not want him to be mayor," the Metro editor-at-large says.
"They did seem to be giving their implicit support to Vic Crone and she's closely associated with Auckland Future which was set up by members of the National Party in Auckland. But although she's clearly the frontrunner [on the right], she doesn't have the official endorsement you might have expected."
Who can make hay from the Unitary Plan controversy?
Mr Wilson says no candidate has so far captured voters’ imagination on the Unitary Plan.
He notes the disparity that leading contenders Mr Goff and Ms Crone are both broadly supportive of the plan although many voters are unhappy about it.
That leaves potential for Messrs Thomas and Palino, who have both criticised the plan, to make hay.
But so far they have yet to take advantage of the opportunity, or clearly differentiate themselves, Mr Wilson says.
"Mr Palino has been vocally opposed to it, but when you listen to what he says; 'We need to build satellite cities in places like Manukau and Albany' – in fact, that's in the Unitary Plan; exactly that idea."
He adds, "Mark Thomas is to the Unitary Plan. But he muddies his message because he says he supports a more compact city but the plan's got it wrong but it's really hard to say what he's really saying."
Take one for the team
To have any chance of defeating Mr Goff, the right will have to see one or two of its candidates take one for the team and drop out.
The most logical scenario is for Mr Thomas and Mr Palino to both step aside and give Ms Crone an unimpeded run at the Mt Albert MP.
Mr Wilson doesn't think that will happen.
"I can't see Mr Palino dropping out because he's not a machine candidate," he says. The American expatriate gained 108,000 votes to Len Brown's 164,000 at the last election but afterwards faced awkward questions about a late night car park meeting with Beven Chuang, Mr Brown's one-time mistress (Mr Palino denies any wrongdoing).
"Would Mark Thomas drop out? Someone would have to do a deal with him and that hasn't happened yet, so it's hard to see how it will happen," he says.
He says a Thomas drop-out will only become a possibility if Ms Crone catches up a lot of ground and it becomes a close race between the former Xero manager and Mr Goff.
Personally, I see a Thomas departure as likely.
The board member has form as a dupe candidate.
Mr Thomas stood as the National’s parliamentary candidate for Wellington Central in 1996, but was by then-Prime Minister Jim Bolger, who told the electorate to vote for ACT's Richard Prebble.
Ironically, it turned out ACT didn’t need the seat to get into Parliament. The party exceeded the 5% threshold easily in the country’s first MMP election.
Mr Thomas also stood for selection as the National Party Tamaki candidate in 2011 after sitting MP Alan Peachey stood down because of ill health. Mr Thomas came third in the vote.
Goff move to the right?
Seemingly not content to sleepwalk to victory over the splintered right-wing field, Mr Goff is going after the centre and National vote with everything from blue-and-white billboards to the fiscally conservative policies of a 2.5% cap on average rates rises and a pledge to cut council spending between 3% and 6% – including job cuts, if necessary.
Mr Wilson says the Goff-as-right-winger meme is bit over-egged. Given Auckland under Len Brown is currently budgeting around a 2.4% rates rise cap, matching it does not constitute a swing to the right.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/reader-poll-result-who-your-preferred-right-wing-candidate-auckland-mayor-ck-p
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