京领嘉宾 | 剑桥大学金融终身讲席教授解读教育与金融创新
2022年5月30日14:00，京领诺奖创新论坛暨国际学校颁奖典礼盛大开幕，论坛坚持学术引领、创新驱动，旨在助力我国国际化创新人才培养事业发展。
本次诺奖创新论坛邀请诺贝尔奖得主与来自哈佛大学、宾夕法尼亚大学、牛津大学、剑桥大学的世界级学者与数十位全国知名国际学校校长齐聚一堂，共话中国国际教育升级发展，畅谈创新人才培养。
在来自哈佛大学、宾夕法尼亚大学、牛津大学、剑桥大学的世界级学者与数十位全国知名国际学校校长的共同见证下，本次论坛首次发布“京领全球领军校长”奖项，并为登上京领“中国国际学校品牌榜”、“中国国际学校创新榜”、“中国国际学校特色榜”三大榜单的学校颁奖。
同时，论坛重磅发布京领与青苗国际双语学校、华附国际部、天津英华实验学校、德胜学校（国际）、北京德闳学校、宏文学校、苏州工业园区德威联合书院、AISL哈罗学校、北京市私立汇佳学校、上海新加坡外籍人员子女学校等十所学校联合发布的十大研究报告，通过多维度分析中国国际学校的整体情况和国际教育发展趋势，总结剖析标杆国际学校的实践经验和办学成果，帮助国际学校把握未来发展趋势，帮助家庭做出最适合的择校选择。
剑桥大学金融终身讲席教授拉加文德拉教授带来精彩演讲，深入解读教育与金融领域的创新。他概览了牛津和剑桥等著名大学在教育领域的创新，以及金融领域观点的创新如何解决现实问题，最后总结出创新的要义。
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视频回顾
大家好，我是拉加文德拉，是剑桥大学商学院的金融学教授。今天很高兴来到这里演讲。首先我要祝贺京领为中国大陆的国际学校所做的一切。祝京领诺奖创新论坛取得圆满成功。同时，我要祝贺入选2022年京领榜单的国际学校。
今天我想和你们谈谈创新。创新是一种做某事的新方式，可能是由技术实现的，也可能不是。创新可以是我们思考事物方式的一种范式转变，是一种全新的做事方式。我会先讲金融的例子，然后谈谈诺贝尔奖得主在金融领域的创新想法。
01
大学创新的历史
让我们从大学开始。你们很多人都在考虑上大学，但你们有没有想过，为什么大学会创立？当我们想到大学时，我们就会想到教育。
世界上的第一所大学，在西方世界，早在1088年便创建了，对吧？几乎世界上所有伟大的大学都是在那段时间左右建立的，比如牛津、剑桥、萨拉曼卡、博洛尼亚等等。但为什么有人会在欧洲博洛尼亚之类的地方建立大学呢？学生们基本上会说是因为这些地方在科学和其他类似领域有新的发展，所以我们要雇人来教我们新发展是什么。这没问题。在博洛尼亚、萨拉曼卡，问题在于学生不是很富有，所以大学也从来没有变得富有。
所以，什么是创新？事实证明，英国牛津——实质上是英语世界中最古老的大学——的人们，想到了一个不同的体系。记得吗，当时的很多僧侣因刚刚度过黑暗时代，收入并不算很高。所以他们售卖农产品，但利润颇微。那么，谁是更好的资金来源呢？那些有钱人都是贵族，国王、公爵，封建社会有很多这种人。什么是创新？你怎么能去找到国王说把你的孩子送到我们这里来接受教育？这些都是有钱人。如果他们有足够的钱，他们会请家庭教师来教孩子。
更重要的是，如果你让你的孩子离开家，会发生什么？孩子可能被绑架，可能被勒索，可能被迫使做不想做的事情。基本上，一旦孩子离开了家，他就是潜在的人质。然而，僧侣说，让我们看看是否能就此想一个办法。那么他们做了什么？如果你对国王说，让我来教育你的长子，你可能会被忘记，根本无法实现。但如果你对国王说，你的第二个儿子怎么办？你的第三个儿子呢？他们可能花全部时间密谋杀死他们的哥哥，也有可能是你，是你的整个家庭。
你真的想冒这个险吗？也许把你年幼的孩子送到我们这里，我们可以教他们一种谋生的方法，让不用杀死所有家人。这是一种创新的思维方式。这就是牛津和剑桥变得如此富有和著名的原因之一。他们这样做已经超过1000年了。创新是说服人们送他们的孩子上大学。这是前所未有的。在此之前没有人想到过把自己的孩子送出家门接受教育。这是教育在创新的开始。
02
金融领域的观点创新
金融领域大概只有6个主要观点，其中5个获得了诺贝尔奖。每一个都涉及到一种范式的转变，一种与前人截然不同的思维方式。所以他们得了诺贝尔奖。
这六个想法是什么？第一个想法很简单，叫做净现值。我会给你一些东西例如投资，作为回报，你答应给我钱。我应该这样做吗？这要看你付我多少钱以及什么时候付我钱。
如果我现在给你100元，你承诺50年后给我1000元。这没有我今天给你100元，你下个月给我1000元那么有吸引力。金钱有时间价值。所以要比较下个月1000元的价值和50年后1000元的价值。这意味着我需要一个贴现率。这是金融界第一个获得诺贝尔奖的想法。它关注的是投资组合理论，以及由此衍生出的等式。资本资产定价模型给出了一个等式，它精确地告诉我们风险有多大，人们会偿还以及他们承担风险的回报是多少。他们是怎么做到的？考虑到世界上有几十亿人，他们如何为每个人找到一个独特的风险衡量标准？
他们所说的创新观点，是让我们不要担心人们认为是其他东西的风险。我们知道的是，如果你知道他们持有什么，聪明的投资者会持有什么，你就会知道在我已经持有的资产上增加一些新资产会增加多少风险。他们表明，每个理性的人都想持有一个市场投资组合，所有的风险都是相对于市场来衡量的。这就是投资组合的本质。然而，金融人不仅决定是否要投资某些东西，他们还要筹钱做实际投资。
他们应该如何进行实际投资？NPV和投资组合资本化了资金和模型，但增加了投资。我该怎么计算权益比呢？想出这个答案的莫迪利亚尼·米勒因此获得了金融领域第二个诺贝尔奖。他们说得很简单。他们说，让我们做一个实验，只允许负债购买股权，或者给出股权购买债务。这意味着他们不做任何投资。他们只是改变资产负债表上的资产和理想的环境，这将不会影响它的价值。
第四个也是获得金融领域第三个诺贝尔奖的观点，是期权定价理论。它告诉我们什么是做某件事的权利。假设我能改变主意。我可以买一张机票，但我可以在起飞前取消机票。这是一项宝贵的权利。但你怎么给它定价?提出这个答案的人，或者说期权价格理论的人，是布莱克和斯科尔斯，他们因此两次获奖。另一种观点是信息不对称。同样的道理也适用于我们所说的任何一种信息不对称问题。也就是说，你知道一些我不知道的事。但我知道你知道一些我不知道的事情，所以当我决定从你那里买东西或卖东西时，我就会考虑到这一点。例如，如果你告诉我这是一个了不起的项目，我保证它是完美的，我说很好，但你比我更了解它。你在撒谎吗？你说的是实话吗？我怎么判断你是否有可能在撒谎？这就是信息不对称的领域。这也是乔治·阿克洛夫，迈克尔·斯宾塞和约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨等人的研究受欢迎的原因。
最后一个观点是市场效率和行为金融学。这是信息冲击价格的观点。信息能准确反映价格的变化吗？有人说可以，有人说不可以。由于金融和创新的整个领域都包含了对信息的思考，很多人都因为这个想法获得了诺贝尔奖，包括卡拉玛，鲍勃·希勒，尤金·法玛和理查德·塞勒。
03
“质疑一切”
这就是我对创新的概述。在我的课堂上，我喜欢关注这些想法，我喜欢关注创新。质疑一切是件好事。和社会上的其他人一样思考也很好，这有助于人们建立一个强大而稳定的社会。但这还不够。创新者的想法不同。为什么要用特定的方式做某事？我有更好的方法。这就是革新者们的想法。如果我有什么话想告诉你的话，那就是质疑一切。这是艰难的。你会坚持下来的。人们会说，为什么那个人总是质疑一切?这让人不舒服，因为你是唯一一个提问的人，而其他人都很安静，但创新就是要改变。改变并不总是受到所有人的欢迎。如果你想改变世界，创新是关键。但创新意味着问题。所以,谢谢大家的关注。我希望你们享受这个论坛。
再见。祝你们好运。
English Version
Hello! My name is professor Raghavendra. I'm a professor of finance at the University of Cambridge Judge Business school. It gives me a great pleasure to speak to you today. First I'd like to congratulate KingLead on everything you're doing for international schools. I hope the Nobel innovation forum will be a great success. Also I want to congratulate the international schools on the 2022lists. And I applaud the publishing of their Research Report for international schools.
What I like to talk to you today is about innovation. Innovation is a new way of doing something, perhaps enabled by technology but perhaps not. It's a paradigm shift in the way we think about things. It's a brand new way of doing stuff. Let's take a couple of examples. Plus I talk about general examples, then I talk about examples and finance. Then I talk about Nobel prize warning in available ideas in finance.
01
The history of university innovation
Let's start by thinking about universities.Many of you are thinking of going on to universities. But have you ever thought about, why a university comes to be founded? When we think of university, we think of education.
But the first university is in the world, in the Western Board, were created in early 1088.Right？Almost all the great universities in the world started around that point in time. Examples include Oxford, Cambridge, Salamanca, Bologna, places like that. But why would somebody found a university? Well, in Europe, Bologna and places like that, Students basically said, new developments happening in the science, and other areas like this.So we gotta hire people to teach us what the new developments are.
Now this is fine. That's in Bologna, Salamanca, except the problem is, students are not very rich, so these universities never became very rich.
So, what is the innovation？It turns out that people in England, in Oxford, essentially which is the oldest university in English speaking world, talk of a different system. Remember, there were monks pretty much at that time. And the income for monks just coming over the dark ages is not very high.So they sell agricultural products,but really there's not much money in agricultural products. So who's a better source of money？The only people who are rich are noble people,the kings,the dukes, and the funeral societies are lots of these people. But what’s innovation? How do you go to a king and say, send your kids to us and be educated? These are rich people.If they have enough money,they’ll have a tutor brought to their house to educate that kids.
And more importantly, if you let your child go away from your house,what's gonna happen？The child might be kidnapped,might be helped to ransom, might be for making you forced to do things you do not want to do.Basically,a child is a potential hostage once he leaves your house.However,the monks said,let's see if you can find a way about this.What could they do？Well,if you go to the king and say,let me educate your elder child, the King would forget it, not gonna happen. But you go to the king and say,what about your second son, your third son? They go on spending the entire time plotting to kill the elder brothers, possibly you, possibly your entire family.
Do you want to take that risk？Maybe if you send your younger kids to us, we can teach them there's a way to make a living without having to kill your whole family and everybody in there.That was an innovative mode of thinking.That's one of the reasons, why Oxford and Cambridge became so wealthy and so famous.They've been doing this for over 1,000 years. That innovation was persuading people to send their children to university.It was never been done before.No one had ever thought of the idea of sending your children away from home to get an education.That was the beginning of educational innovation.
02
Innovation of ideas in finance
In finance, there are only about six major ideas.Five of those ideas have Nobel prize as associated with them.Each of them involves a paradigm shift,a way of thinking that is very different from anybody who came before.That's why they got a Nobel Prize.
What are these six ideas？The first idea is simple.It is something called net present value.I will give you something like some investment, in return, you promise you pay me something.Should I do this？It depends on how much you're paying me and when you're paying me.
So if I give you￥100 now and you promise you give me￥1,000 50years from now.That's not as attractive as me give me￥100 today and you give me￥1,000 next month.There's a time value of money.So have to somehow compare what's the value of thousand Yuan next month thousand Yuan 50 years from now.That means I need a discount rate.That's the first big Nobel prize winning idea in finance.It looks at something called portfolio theory,portfolio theory,and the equation which derived from it,the capital asset pricing model come up with an equation that tells us precisely how much risk a person will repay and what is the return they need in order for bearing that risk？How do they do this？Given that over a several billion people in the world, how do they find a unique measure risk for everybody？
The innovative idea they had was to say, let's not worry about what people think about is a risk for something else. What we know is if you know what they hold, what smart investors will hold, you can see what's the addition to risk taken on by adding something new to what I'm already holding. They showed that every rational person would want to hold a market Portfolio, and all risk is measured relative to the market portfolio. That's the essence of portfolio to it. However,finance people also not only have to decide whether to investment something, they have to raise money to do their actual investment.
The 4th idea and the third Nobel Prize-winning in finance, is option pricing theory that tells me what is a right to do something. Suppose I can change my mind. I can buy a plane ticket, but I can cancel the plane ticket before I fly. That's a valuable right. How do you price this right? The guys who came up with the answer, or option price theory, were Black and Scholes, were awarded twice for that. Yet another idea is that the asymmetric information. The same thing holds with any kind of what we call asymmetric information problems. That means, you know something that I don't. But I know that you know something I don't. So I take that into account when I'm deciding to buy or sell something from you. Right. For example, if you tell me this is an amazing item, I guarantee it is perfect, I say well, but you know more about it than I do. So are you lying？Are you telling the truth？How do I judge for the possibility that you might be lying？That's the area of asymmetric information and that’s why people like George Akerlorf, Micheal Spence, and Joseph Stiglitz’s work.
The final idea is that the market efficiency and behavioral finance. That's the idea that information hit prices. Does Information accurately reflect what's happening to prices？Some people say yes, some people say no. And since an entire area of finance and innovation consists of thinking about information, lots of people again have got Nobel Prices for this idea, including Karama, Bob Shiller, Eugene Fama and Richard Thaler.
So this is an overview of innovation. in my classes, I like to focus on these ideas, I like to focus on innovation. It's good to question everything. Well, it's also good to think like other people in society, it helps people to build a strong and stable society. But that's not enough. Innovators think differently. Why does something be done in a particular way？I have better ways of doing this. That's what innovators are thinking of. If there's one message I want to leave you, it is this – question everything. This is tough. You will stick out. People will say, why is that person always questioning everything？It's uncomfortable because you're the only one who's asking question, but everybody else is quiet,but innovation is all about change.And change is not always welcomed by everybody.If you want to change the world,innovation is the key.But innovation means question.So with that,let me thank you for your attention.And I hope you enjoy the forum.
How should we do the actual investment？That's NPV and the portfolio capitalizing the prize and model, but raising investment. How should I do? The guy who came up with the answer to this one, Modigliani Miller got the second Nobel prize for it. They introduce in simple. They said, let's do a thought experiment where forms are only allowed to raise debt and buy that equity, or you give equity and buy that debt. That means they don't do any investment. They just changing the assets on the balance sheet and the ideal circumstances, this will have no impact on the value of the form.
03
Question everything
So this is an overview of innovation. in my classes, I like to focus on these ideas, I like to focus on innovation. It's good to question everything. Well, it's also good to think like other people in society, it helps people to build a strong and stable society. But that's not enough. Innovators think differently. Why does something be done in a particular way？I have better ways of doing this. That's what innovators are thinking of. If there's one message I want to leave you, it is this – question everything. This is tough. You will stick out. People will say, why is that person always questioning everything？It's uncomfortable because you're the only one who's asking question, but everybody else is quiet, but innovation is all about change. And change is not always welcomed by everybody. If you want to change the world, innovation is the key.But innovation means question. So with that,let me thank you for your attention. And I hope you enjoy the forum.
Goodbye. Good luck.
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