最新研究 ▏王丛虎 等：中国公共资源交易政策创新扩散生命周期模型：基于自下而上和自上而下的综合分析法

来源：Public Administration and Development. DOI:10.1002/pad.1878

链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

doi/full/10.1002/pad.1878

英文标题：Diffusion models over the life cycle of aninnovation: A bottom‐up and top‐down synthesis approach

作者：王丛虎（中国人民大学公共管理学院教授）；李晓明（田纳西州立大学商学院教授）；马文娟（中国人民大学公共管理学院博士生）；王晓鹏（中国人民大学公共管理学院博士生）

王丛虎｜中国人民大学公共管理学院教授

研究问题

创新扩散已经成为公共政策研究的关键部分。既有文献的主要缺点是：大多数创新扩散模型都是分开进行检验的，这忽略了创新扩散表象下的非排他性问题，即大多数的创新扩散模型都存在相通之处；大多数文献成果来自西方国家，这些政策扩散模型来源于具有分权结构的政策制度。解释一项创新如何在一个发展中的威权国家传播仍然是有争议的，甚至可能是有问题的。我们选择中国作为理想的候选案例主要有两个原因：（1）改革开放以来，中国经济经历了40年的高速增长。公共采购支出占国内生产总值（GDP）的15%-30%，是一个国家最具影响力的采购活动，对国民经济和社会服务做出了重大贡献。（2）随着改革开放的不断深入，创新对公共产品和服务的提供至关重要。这种特质使中国的公共采购成为检验最大的发展中经济体创新扩散的完美候选，特别是解释扩散模型如何随时间演变。更具体地说，本文的研究问题是，扩散模型是否以及如何在创新的生命周期中演变？

文章介绍

既有文献在对创新的研究中，扩散模型的研究倾向于分开检验，并且随着时间的推移始终保持不变。而在全球化时代背景下，人们越来越感兴趣向其他国家学习。因此，我们选择中国公共资源交易平台的创新扩散来填补文献的空白。本文的主要内容如下：首先，回顾国内公共资源交易平台（PRTPs）的相关文献和建立情况；其次，提出公共资源交易平台扩散的关键假设和机制；最后，使用实证数据来检验研究假设和机制。本文的贡献主要有两个：（1）与现有文献结果的静态观点相反，我们的分析结果表明：政策扩散模型在生命周期的不同阶段有着不同的创新变化。由于存在创新生命周期中不同采纳者类别之间的差异性，我们认为在不同采纳者类别上应用不同的扩散模型是适当和必要的，而这在当前文献中是缺失的。（2）我们发现，首先自下而上，之后采取自上而下的综合方法是一种兼顾效果和效率的扩散过程，既能满足当地需求，又能在全国范围内迅速采纳创新。

研究方法

文本分析法、文献研究法、访谈法

研究发现

Our findings can be generalized to other contexts and to other countries. It is well known that an innovation cycle has distinctive stages: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards; each stage has its own unique characteristics. It is expected that certain diffusion models work better in certain stages. This is true in China and also in other countries. Therefore, we conjecture that our first finding (i.e., the diffusion models evolve over the life cycle of an innovation) holds in other countries as well. The first bottom-up and then top-down synthesis approach can be well applied in other countries. Local governments in other countries have certain autonomy, so they can initiate some innovations for their local needs, which is the first bottom-up part. After enough local governments succeed in an innovation, the federal (central) government may provide strong fiscal incentives or mandates to other local governments for speedy adoptions, which is the second top-down part.

论文摘要

The diffusion models tend to be tested individually in isolation and remain the same over time for the studied innovations in the literature. Moreover, there is growing interest to learn from other countries in our current age of globalization. Therefore, this paper chooses the innovation of public resources trading platforms in China to fulfill above literature gaps. We have examined key events and the issuances of related laws and regulations by Chinese governments. Our contributions are twofold: (a) Our analysis and results show that the diffusion models evolve over the different stages of a life cycle of an innovation, contrasting to the literature results that diffusion models remain the same for their studied innovations. Due to major diverse characteristics among different adopter categories over a life cycle of an innovation, we argue that it is appropriate and necessary to apply different diffusion models on different adopter categories, which is missing in the current literature. (b) We find a first bottom-up and then top-down synthesis approach as an effective, efficient diffusion process for both fitting local needs (i.e., effective) and adopting innovations rapidly nationwide (i.e., efficient).

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