刚刚，美联储终于决定"缩表”，风险来了？
刚刚，
美联储终于决定"缩表”，风险来了？
北京时间9月21日凌晨2点，美联储宣布了一个重大决定：从今年10月开始启动渐进式被动“缩表”，开启4.5万亿美元资产负债表缩减行动，这主要是针对长期国债和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。
美联储同时宣布，维持联邦基金利率在1%-1.25%不变，预计今年还将加息一次；预计2018年将加息三次。
什么是”缩表“？
所谓“缩表”是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模。美联储想给自身“减肥”，挤一挤金融危机后给自己加注的水分。
2008年金融危机后，美联储不仅将短期利率（联邦基金利率）降至接近零的超低水平，又先后通过三轮量化宽松货币政策购买大量美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券，大幅压低长期利率，以促进企业投资和居民消费，刺激美国经济复苏。美联储资产负债表的规模也从危机前的不到1万亿美元膨胀至目前的约4.5万亿美元，其数额占美国国内生产总值（GDP）的比重从约6%升至24%。
对比前些年备受热议的美联储量化宽松政策（“QE”），如今的“缩表”可谓“QE”的反向操作，其对美国经济产生的影响以及对世界经济的外溢影响不容小视。
为何现在进行”缩表“？
市场分析认为，美联储此刻决定“缩表”的原因有三：
首先，美国经济现在更加稳固。美联储在过去两年四次上调短期利率，考虑到借贷成本已经安然处在零水平上方，美联储已做好准备，退出为应对2008年金融危机而采取的空前举措中最后一大块内容。
其次，美联储的庞大资产已成为政治负担，批评人士对该央行在危机时期的实验性救助举措表达了不满。对于美联储的低利率举措帮助前总统奥巴马压缩了预算赤字规模这一点，一些共和党议员感到不悦。其他批评人士称，美联储为支持住房市场而购买抵押贷款支持证券的做法属于财政政策范畴，而财政政策最好交给议员来制定。
第三，现在启动缩表也可以打消金融市场对美联储计划如何处理其资产负债表的疑虑，尤其是眼下还面临另一个不确定因素，即美联储领导层即将换届。未来一年，总统特朗普将有机会提名美联储理事会七名成员中的五人，包括美联储主席和副主席。如果美联储现在就能对缩表方案达成一致，在执行上没有异议，那么新领导层可能更难以对此做出改变。
“缩表”对市场估计有什么影响？
美联储“缩表”从性质上看是全球货币的大退潮，挤泡沫。当然，泡沫是早晚都会崩溃的；而“缩表”的实际影响还要看“缩表”的规模和进度。
按照美联储计划逐渐缩表。第一个季度（10月份开始），美联储每月将缩减60亿美元美国国债和40亿美元抵押贷款债券。除此之外的美国国债和抵押贷款债券仍将进行再投资。一年内，缩表规模将逐季度增加。一年后，美联储将允许至多300亿美元美国国债和200亿美元抵押贷款债券到期，而不进行再投资。
如果一切按计划执行，大多数经济学家认为最终资产负债表可能保持在2万亿美元到3万亿美元之间。
当然有一点需要重要说明的是：美联储将不会卖出任何债券。
美联储的资产购买计划帮助陷入停滞的信用债市场恢复生气，因此其提振作用可能比想象更大。如今该市场已重新运转，所以，美联储缩减购债可能不会造成太大影响。
高盛首席资产策略师David Kostin认为，总体市场可能对缩减反应不会很剧烈。但随着资产负债表缩减将带动利率上行，其可能使今年大涨的股市走低。
还有市场人士认为，美联储缩表将更多资金还给商业银行后，商业银行有很大可能将这些资金贷出。因此美联储缩表应该是市场流动性释放的过程。随着美联储可能将于今年10月开始缩债及放松管制，银行股或将迎来春天。
以下是美联储的最新公告：
September 20, 2017
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.
Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.