【外交安全】“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数
Five Connectivity Indexes of Countries along
the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
作者信息：
翟 崑 教授 ，北京大学国际关系学院
Prof. ZHAI Kun，Peking University
E-mail: zhaikun@pku.edu.cn
图文来自PKU东南亚
Q1
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议的提出
Development of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
2013年10月，习近平主席出访印度尼西亚期间提出共建“21世纪海上丝绸之路”（以下简称“海丝”）的倡议，得到了国际社会广泛关注和积极响应。该倡议顺应全球互联互通发展新趋势，符合沿线各国促进经济发展、改善民生的诉求，成为沿线国家和地区合作交流的新纽带，推动世界经济发展的新引擎。
During his visit to Indonesia in October 2013, President Xi Jinping proposed the "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" (hereinafter referred to as "Maritime Silk Road"), which has received extensive attention and positive response from the international community. This initiative, conforming to the new trend of global connectivity as well as the demands of the countries along the Maritime Silk Road for economic development and improvement of people's livelihood, has become a new link of cooperation and exchange for countries along the Road and a new engine driving the development of world economy.
根据《“一带一路”愿景与行动》规划，“21世纪海上丝绸之路”以中国东南沿海为起点，横跨太平洋、印度洋，途经南海、马六甲海峡、孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海、波斯湾等海域，涵盖东南亚、南亚、西亚、北非等相关国家和地区，重点方向是从中国沿海港口经南海到印度洋，延伸至欧洲，连接中国与东南亚、南亚、西亚、北非以及欧洲等市场，覆盖几十亿人口，市场潜力巨大。
According to the Vision and Actions on the Belt and Road, the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road originates from the southeast coast of China and straddles the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. It runs through the South China Sea, Strait of Malacca, the Bay of Bengal and the Persian Gulf, etc. It covers regions such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The key direction is from ports along Chinese coast to the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and Europe. Linking China with the markets of Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, North Africa and Europe, it covers a population of several billions with huge market potential.
Q2
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数概况
Introduction to Five Connectivity Index
为了量化“一带一路”沿线国家“互联互通”的水平与进展，北京大学建立跨学科“五通指数”课题组推出“‘一带一路’五通指数”。该指数结合了各国的基本现状与发展趋势，从客观数据出发，对“一带一路”沿线64个国家与中国的政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通情况进行了具体深入的评估。根据《愿景与行动》确立该指数指标体系，共包括5个一级指标、15个二级指标、45个三级指标，其中各二级指标满分20分。
In order to quantify the level and progress of interconnectivity along the Belt and Road, the research group of "Five Connectivity Index" was set up in Peking University to launch the "Five Connectivity Index of the Belt and Road." Based on objective data of the basic status and development trend of various countries concerned, the index made a precise and in-depth assessment of the relations of these countries with China in terms of policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bond. Then with guidance in Vision and Actions on the Belt and Road, an indicator system of this index was established which consisted of five first-level indicators, fifteen second-level indicators with twenty scores for each and forty-five third-level indicators.
根据量化分析得出 “五通”间的关系存在三种特征：
Quantitative analysis found out three features among Five Connectivity indexes
1、政策沟通与民心相通高度相关，二者之间相关系数达0.72
Policy coordination is highly correlated to people-to-people bond with the coefficient up to 0.72
2、贸易畅通与资金融通高度关联，二者之间相关系数达0.77；Unimpeded trade is highly correlated to financial integration with the coefficient up to 0.77
3、设施联通与贸易畅通和资金融通的相关性明显高于其与政策沟通和民心相通的相关性；
The correlation of facilities connectivity with unimpeded trade and financial integration is higher than that of facilities connectivity with policy coordination and people-to-people bond.
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数——东南亚地区
Five Connectivity Indexes of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road- Southeast Asia
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数——南亚地区
Five Connectivity Indexes of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road- South Asia
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数——西亚北非地区
Five Connectivity Indexes of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road- West Asia/North Africa
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数分类
Grades of Five Connectivity Indexes of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk
小结
Summary
1、“五通”皆畅的顺畅型国家“海丝”揽入3名，占“一带一路”沿线国家顺畅型国家的六成，优质资源集中。
Statistics show that three “Maritime Silk Road” countries are “smooth” countries which have good resources and good scores in all aspects of Five Connectivity. These countries account for 60% of all smooth countries along the Belt and Road.
2、“海丝”国家中良好型国家共计16个，良好型以上国家占比70.4%，表明在中国倡导的“一带一路”建设中“海丝”国家中70%强具有良好的投资和经济发展基础。
Sixteen “Maritime Silk Road” countries are “good” countries, accounting for 70.4% of all 27 “Maritime Silk Road” countries, which shows that in the construction of the Belt and Road initiated by China, more than 70% of “Maritime Silk Road” countries have favorable foundations of investment and economic development.
3、东盟十国作为 “海丝”的重点合作区域“五通指数”整体表现优良，整体水平也位于“一带一路”沿线国家中上游。
As the key cooperative region in “Maritime Silk Road”, ASEAN countries in whole have good performance in terms of Five Connectivity, and the overall rankings are also in the upper part of the Belt and Road countries.
4、南亚各国作为“海丝”经贸合作新的增长点，在共建“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议的推动下，同中国各项合作基础得到巩固和发展。但是从整体情况判断，南亚地区较之东南亚地区与中国“五通”合作在基础和发展程度上差距明显，也表明南亚市场在“海丝”建设推动下具有较大潜力。
As a new growth point of "Maritime Silk Road" trade and economic cooperation, South Asian countries have consolidated and developed their cooperation base with China under the initiative of co-constructing the "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road". However, judging from the overall situation, obvious gaps exist between South Asian countries and Southeast Asian countries in terms of their Five Connectivity cooperation with China. It also shows that South Asian market has great potential under the construction of "Maritime Silk Road."
Q3
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”五通指数解读
Analysis of Five Connectivity Index
政策沟通
Policy coordination
小结
Summary
1、中国与沿线国家和地区围绕共建“21世纪海上丝绸之路”达成了一系列共识与协议，致力于构建沿线国家政府间多层次的经济发展战略、宏观经济政策、重大规划项目的对接与合作机制。
China and the countries along the Belt and Road have reached a series of consensus and agreements about co-constructing the "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" and are committed to constructing multi-level economic development strategies, macro-economic policies and major planning projects.
2、截至 2016 年末，中国已经同 60多个国家和区域合作组织发表了对接“一带一路”倡议的联合声明，与21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线8个国家签署了自贸区协定，中国与东盟国家携手推进的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）谈判正进入关键阶段，中印尼双方领导人宣布“21世纪海上丝绸之路”对接印尼“全球海洋支点”规划。
By the end of 2016, China had issued joint statements with more than 60 countries and regional cooperation organizations regarding connection of the Belt and Road Initiative, and signed FTA agreements with eight countries along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.
3、2013年以来，习近平主席先后访问了印度尼西亚、马尔代夫、斯里兰卡、新加坡、沙特阿拉伯、埃及、伊朗等国，在多个场合都提出了共建“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的倡议，得到了相关国家的积极响应，成为共建“海丝”有力政治保障。
Since 2013, President Xi Jinping has visited Indonesia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran and other countries. He has put forward the initiative to co-build the "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" in many occasions and has received positive responses from relevant countries, which became powerful political insurance of co-constructing “Maritime Silk Road”.
设施联通
Facilities connectivity
小结
Summary
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”着眼于港口基础设施建设，畅通陆水联运通道，加强中国与海上丝绸之路沿线国家港口群以及口岸建设，创新口岸通关机制，促进货物流通和人员往来便利化；加快推进基础设施从传统、单一的航海联系向立体的互联互通转变，包括港口、航空、高速公路、铁路、信息通信、能源基础等，加快完善海陆空及信息通道等基础设施，加强与相关国家在港口码头、物流园区、集散基地和配送中心等方面的合作，打通海上的贸易流、物流、人流、信息流通道，构建放射性、网络化的优势布局，形成海洋基础设施互联互通新格局。特别是借助海洋这个天然的大通道，将沿线东南亚、南亚、西亚北非及欧洲等各大经济板块更紧密的联系起来。
Aimed at construction of port infrastructures and smooth land and water transportation, the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road has strengthened the construction of port constellation between China and other countries along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, and established innovative customs clearance mechanism to facilitate goods flow and personnel exchanges. Infrastructure construction has been driven to shift from traditional single sea connection to all-around connectivity including ports, airlift, expresses, railways, information communication and energy infrastructure. China is speeding up infrastructures such as land, sea, air and information channels, strengthening cooperation with relevant countries in ports, logistic gardens, distributing bases and delivering centers. The aim is to build smooth maritime trade flow, goods flow, personnel flow and information flow, build a networked layout, and form a new pattern of maritime infrastructure connectivity. In particular, with the help of the sea, the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road closely links Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, North Africa, and Europe.
贸易畅通
Unimpeded trade
小结
Summary
1、过去十年来，我国与“海丝”沿线国家的贸易额年均增长18.2%，占我国对外贸易总额的比重从15%提升到20%。特别是我国企业对海上丝绸之路沿线国家的直接投资额年均增长44%，累计投资达300多亿美元。
In the past decade, the trade volume between China and countries along the Road has increased by 18.2% annually, and its percentage in China’s foreign trade has increased from 15% to 20%. In particular, the direct investment in the countries along the Road by Chinese enterprises has increased by 44% annually, with an accumulative investment of over 30 billion US dollars.
2、中国加强与沿线国家港口合作建设，在印尼雅加达港、马来西亚皇京港、缅甸皎漂港、斯里兰卡科伦坡港、巴基斯坦瓜达尔港等推动跨境园区建设，以“资源换项目”、港口特许经营权、“飞地园区”等多种形式，推动大型能源和基建企业海外投资与运营，以海水养殖、渔业加工、海洋科技和海上旅游等为重点，推动建立一批临港产业园区，吸引各国企业入园投资，促进东道国现代制造业、服务业、现代农业等相关产业融合发展，形成互利共赢、安全高效的开放型经济合作体系。
China makes increased effort in cooperative construction of ports with countries along the Road. China is advancing the construction of transnational port construction in Jakarta of Indonesia, Huangjing of Malaysia, Kyaukpyu of Myanmar, Colombo of Sri Lanka, and Gwadar of Pakistan. Such efforts intend to advance overseas investment and operation of large energy projects and infrastructure construction through “resources for projects”, licensed operation rights of ports and enclave gardens. China aims to focus on marine cultivation, fish processing, maritime science and technology and maritime tourism, and establish a series of portside gardens to attract enterprises to invest in the gardens, thus enhancing the integrated development of manufacturing industry, service industry and modern agriculture of host nations and building an open economic cooperation system that is mutually beneficiary, win-win, safe and efficient.
资金融通
Financial integration
小结
Summary
1、较之于“一带一路”沿线国家整体资金融通发展状况，“海丝”国家明显成两级分化分布，其中资金融通顺畅型国家较多，高于平均水平；然而金融体系建设欠缺的潜力型国家也高出平均水平。
Compared with countries along the Belt and Road, the countries along Road are quite divided in terms of financial integration. There are more countries with smooth financing, higher than average; however, the potential countries with poor financial system are also above average.
2、“21世纪海上丝绸之路”通过开发性金融模式，赋予海洋（港口）贸易之外的金融、投资功能。中国与沿线国家和地区积极深化金融合作，充分发挥丝路基金以及各国主权基金在21世纪海上丝绸之路重点项目建设中的资金引导作用。
The 21st- Century Maritime Silk Road initiative enables sea (ports) with financial and investment functions other than trade through the development financial model. China has actively deepened financial cooperation with the countries and regions along the Road, and brought into full play the guiding role of Silk Road Fund and the sovereign funds of various countries in the construction of key projects of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.
民心相同
People-to-people bond
小结
Summary
1、“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家历史文化不同，宗教信仰各异，政治体制多样，地缘政治复杂，经济发展水平不一，这进一步体现出民心相通的重要性。
The countries along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road vary in histories, cultures, religions, and political institutions. The geopolitical situations are complex and the economic developments are different from one country to another. All this adds to the importance of people-to-people bond.
2、三年多来，中国先后同21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线国家和地区举办了一系列文化交流活动，创建诸多国际人文交流平台和品牌，全面深化科教文卫等多领域的交流往来，推动建立海上丝绸之路城市联盟，广泛开展旅游合作、科技合作、卫生医疗合作、青年合作、党政合作和民间合作，为21世纪海上丝绸之路建设奠定了坚实的民意基础。
Over the past three years, China has held a series of cultural exchanges with the countries and regions along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, founded many international cultural exchanges, established a number of international cultural exchange platforms and brands, deepened exchanges in areas such as science, technology, education, culture and health, advanced the establishment of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road City Alliances, and conducted tourist cooperation, medical cooperation, youth cooperation and unofficial cooperation, which has laid solid foundation for the construction of the 21st-Centur图 Maritime Silk Road.
Q4
总结
Conclusion
Future development trend of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线各国涵盖全球经济发展潜力大、劳动力丰富地区同时兼顾政权相对稳定、经济发展环境相对有序的地区。通过中国同沿线各国各港互联互通建设，必将带动沿线各国的经济发展进而带动整个区域经济增速，刺激全球经济增长。
The countries along 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road are from regions with great potential of economic development and rich labor force, relatively stable government and orderly economic development environment. The interconnection between China and the various countries along the Road will surely drive the economic development of the countries along the Road and stimulate the growth of the whole region as well as the growth of the global economy.
第一， “海丝”建设要以“政治沟通”为基。政治沟通联通度是确保其他各“通”通达的重要前提和保障。
First, the construction of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road should be based on policy communication. Policy communication is an important prerequisite and guarantee for ensuring other aspect of Five Connectivity.
第二，“设施联通”为钥。继续推动中国同沿线国家基础设施互联互通建设，以基建项目为切入点，推动地区经济合作。
Second, facilities connectivity is the key. We will continue to promote infrastructure interconnection between China and the countries along the Road, and take infrastructure projects as the starting point to promote regional economic cooperation.
第三，“贸易畅通”和“资金融通”为翼，在中国企业海外投资过程中加强风险评估，提升沿线国家货币结算便利性，通过政策支持为金融合作创造条件，创新投融资和运作模式，鼓励多利益相关方参与建设，积极发挥亚洲基础设施投资银行、丝路基金、中国-东盟银行以及民营资本的作用，做到利益和风险共担。
Third, unimpeded trade and financial integration are the wings. We should strengthen risk assessment in the process of overseas investment of Chinese enterprises, enhance the convenience of monetary settlement along the Road, and create conditions for financial cooperation through policy support. We should encourage more stakeholders to participate in the construction, bring into full play the role of AIIB, Silk Road Fund, China-ASEAN Bank and private capitals, and share risks as well as interests.
第四，“民心相通”为本。实现民心相通是“一带一路”建设的最终归宿，也是“海丝”设“一带一路”的重要基础。
Fourth, people-to-people