Covid-19: 50,000,000 Americans will travel for Thanksgiving...
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COVID-19 spread when 5
million people left Wuhan for Chinese New Year, yet 50 million
Americans will still travel for Thanksgiving. ‘Staying
home is the best way to protect yourself and others from getting sick,’
AAA said. Nearly 257,000 people have died in the U.S. from the
coronavirus.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday said it was “alarmed”
about the 1 million new infections over the last week, and recommended
against traveling this Thanksgiving. Potential alternatives include a
virtual Thanksgiving meal with friends or loved ones and contact-free
delivery of safely prepared traditional dishes to family and neighbors,
the CDC added.
Despite these recommendations, AAA, formerly known as the
American Automobile Association, estimates that 50 million people will
travel over the “Thanksgiving holiday travel period,” a five-day stretch
from Wednesday, Nov. 25 to Sunday, Nov. 29, down from 55 million last
year; 95% will travel by car. AAA used economic forecasting and research
from the insights firm IHS Markit.
AAA anticipates Thanksgiving air travel will fall by nearly half this year to 2.4 million from 4.58 million last year, the biggest annual air-travel decrease on record. “AAA reminds air travelers that in-flight amenities, including food and beverage services, may not be available,” the group says. “Also, as a precaution, wipe down your seat, armrest, belt buckle and tray table using disinfecting wipes.”
The early spread of the disease was likely helped by preparations for
China’s Lunar New Year holiday, when people traveled to visit
relatives, experts said. At the time, Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said 5
million people had left the city before travel restrictions were imposed
ahead of the Lunar New Year.
“COVID-19 rapidly spread from a single city to the entire country in just 30 days,” a paper released in February
on the fatality rates of the disease in the peer-reviewed medical
journal JAMA found. “The sheer speed of both the geographical expansion
and the sudden increase in numbers of cases surprised and quickly
overwhelmed health and public-health services in China.”
“People
in China are estimated to make close to 3 billion trips over the 40-day
travel period, or Chunyun, of the Lunar New Year holiday,” according to an article in The Lancet
in February. About a third of those 5 million people leaving Wuhan
traveled to locations outside of Hubei province. “Limiting the social
contacts of these individuals was crucial for COVID-19 control,” it
said.
“Government policies enacted during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday are likely to have helped reduce the spread of the virus by decreasing contact and increasing physical distance between those who have COVID-19 and those who do not. As part of these social distancing policies, the Chinese Government encouraged people to stay at home; discouraged mass gatherings,” it added.
AAA
said the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including health concerns and
job losses, are dissuading some people from traveling. “With health and
government officials stressing that staying home is the best way to
protect yourself and others from getting sick, AAA anticipates at least a
10% drop in travel, the largest one-year decrease since the Great
Recession in 2008,” it said.
Risk
factors to consider before attending a gathering include whether there
is community spread of COVID-19; exposure during travel; the location
and duration of the gathering, and whether it’s indoors; the number of
attendees and capacity for physical distancing; and attendees’
preventive behaviors before and during the gathering, such as mask
wearing.
The CDC said in a recent statement that “unfortunately, the COVID-19 epidemic is worsening, and small household gatherings are an important contributor to the rise in COVID-19 cases.” As of Monday, 58.8 million people worldwide had contracted COVID-19, with 1,391,311 deaths, with nearly 12.3 million cases in the U.S. and 256,934 fatalities, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. daily tally of coronavirus infections hit nearly 142,732 on
Sunday, down from 200,000 on Friday, a daily record. Hospitals in the
Midwest and southern states including Texas and Florida continued to
feel the strain. Hospitalizations are at their highest level since the
pandemic began, as some states tighten restrictions. California
introduced a 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew on indoor gatherings.
Anthony
Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases who has worked with six presidential administrations, told CBS News
last month: ”Household transmission now is assuming a greater element
of the transmissibility. Don’t assume that because you’re in your own
home with your own family that you’re not going to spread infection.”
Fauci said his children won’t visit. “Thanksgiving is going to look very different this year,” he said in the interview.
“I would love to have it with my children, but my children are in three
separate states throughout the country and, in order for them to get
here, they would all have to go to an airport and get on a plane. All
three of them want very much to come home for Thanksgiving.”
“People
should be very careful and prudent about social gatherings,” he added.
“You may have to bite the bullet, and sacrifice social gatherings unless
you’re pretty certain that the people you’re dealing with are not
infected, or have very recently tested, or they’re living a lifestyle in
which they don’t have any interaction with anybody except you and your
family.”
Dispatches from a Pandemic:It’s
2:30 a.m. in Wyoming: ‘You’re holding a smartphone to let a husband say
goodbye to his wife via FaceTime after 60 years of marriage’
On Monday, AstraZeneca
AZN,
-1.08%
and the University of Oxford said their coronavirus vaccine is up to 90% effective
when administered as a half dose and then a full dose one month later.
Effectiveness falls to 62% when two full doses are given one month
apart, according to late-stage trials. The combined analysis from both
regimens showed an average efficacy of 70.4%.
Earlier this month, BioNTech SE
BNTX,
+2.33%
and Pfizer
PFE,
-0.49%
announced progress in a vaccine and, on Wednesday, said a final analysis showed 95% rather than 90% efficacy. On Monday, Moderna
MRNA,
+3.50%
said its vaccine candidate was 94.5% effective. The companies’ findings have not yet been published as a preprint or in a peer-reviewed medical journal.
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ,
-1.01%
; Merck & Co.
MERK,
-0.61%
;GlaxoSmithKline
GSK,
-0.78%
; and Sanofi
SAN,
+0.36%
are among other firms working on fast-track coronavirus vaccines.
Like the Moderna vaccine and Sanofi’s vaccine, the vaccine from
AztraZeneca does not need to be kept ultra-low temperatures,
theoretically helping with its distribution.
“I think these are really exciting results,” Dr. Andrew Pollard, chief investigator for the trial, told a news conference on Monday.
“Because the vaccine can be stored at fridge temperatures, it can be
distributed around the world using the normal immunization distribution
system.” He said his goal was to produce a vaccine that’s accessible
everywhere: “I think we’ve actually managed to do that.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.12%
and the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
+0.56%
were up slightly Monday on the back of the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccine news, but the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+0.21%
was slightly lower. The surge in coronavirus cases, especially in
the south and midwest weighs on investor concerns ahead of any vaccine
availability next year.
Fauci has expressed optimism that the
vaccine news could mean millions of Americans will have access to a
vaccine by year-end, but he reiterated that there’s unlikely be a
rollout for the broader population — beyond frontline workers like
medical staff and school teachers, and people with underlying health
conditions and older people at risk — until the second quarter.
More Republican governors are dropping resistance to masks as infections soar and hospitals deal with a flood of cases. “If Iowans don’t buy into this, we’ll lose. Businesses will close once again, more schools will be forced to go online, and our health-care system will fail,” Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds said this week, following in the footsteps of officials in West Virginia and North Dakota.
Source:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/50-million-people-will-travel-this-thanksgiving-as-more-than-250000-americans-have-died-from-covid-19-2020-11-19, by Quentin Fottrell
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