China likely reopens to world in first half of 2022

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A medical worker prepares to administer a dose of the recombinant COVID-19 vaccine (adenovirus type 5 vector) which requires only one shot at a temporary vaccination site in Haidian District of Beijing, capital of China, May 20, 2021.(Photo: Xinhua)

"China has no choice but to suspend the entry of foreigners due to the current epidemic, but China will stay in close touch with all sides and properly handle personnel exchanges with the rest of the world. On the premise of ensuring epidemic control, China will gradually and orderly resume personnel exchanges with other countries."

This is the latest official statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs & National Immigration Administration of China.

Now the epidemic is under control and the vaccination is progressing steadily around the world. Will cross-border travel resume? The covid-19 epidemic has blocked the whole world for more than one year, and people have been unable to go abroad for a long time. At present, they have accumulated great willingness to travel, which would probably lead to an explosion of revenge travel after the epidemic.
 

The developed countries are expected to be the first to resume cross-border travel in the second half of 2021 after the vaccination is completed. What about China? According to the current plan, China will complete the vaccination by the end of 2021 to achieve herd immunity, so we can expect that by the end of 2021 or early 2022, China will resume the normal entry of foreigners for tourism, business, visiting relatives and other exchange activities.
 

Latest Entry Policies of Different Countries (Updated: March 2021)

This is, of course, just a prediction. The resumption of international travel would actually be affected by many factors, such as epidemic control and vaccine implementation. The following is an analysis of the various influencing factors for your reference.

After more than a year, the world is still battling against COVID-19, prompting many to wonder when people-to-people exchanges will return to normal, when China will open its doors to the world, and to what extent vaccines and mutated variants will impact the resumption of international travels.

Video: https://v.qq.com/x/page/x32505c0xhd.html

Zhang Wenhong, a leading infectious disease expert, believes that China will be able to reopen to countries with good inoculation and low infection rates in the first half of 2022, but that will still depend on how many people in the country have been inoculated.

Countries with a higher inoculation rate such as Israel, the US and the UK will make deals to resume people-to-people exchanges in the second half of this year. But the date for a resumption of global travel remains  unknown, as that would be determined by the overall vaccination rate and speed of mutated variants, said Zhang at the Boao Forum for Asia in Qingdao, East China's Shandong Province on Wednesday. 

Asked whether it would be necessary to receive COVID-19 vaccines every year just like influenza vaccines, Zhang said it depends on what percentage of people who have received a vaccine become re-infected, though most assume that it would be necessary, because with the passing of time, the protection generated by any vaccine will fade.

Also, there is no evidence so far to indicate that mutated variants have escaped from vaccines, and the virus has not generated new serotypes, which means "we have to wait for more data to decide if human beings have to get inoculated repeatedly," Zhang noted. 

Gao Fu, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control, recently said that it seemed that the virus evolves like an influenza virus.

"We probably need to receive jabs against COVID-19 every year, just like how we coexist with influenza," said Gao, adding that when there is an immunity barrier against COVID-19, the regular jabs will be used to prevent critical cases rather than simply avert infections.

To reach herd immunity against COVID-19, China will have to vaccinate 80 percent of its population, and this target is likely to be reached by the end of this year, following stronger public willingness to receive jabs propelled by recent waves of epidemic resurgence in some places, said Chinese top epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan.

China's speed in administering vaccines has been accelerating recently with more than 700 million doses administered across the country by Wednesday, data from the National Health Commission showed. 

The intervals per 100 million doses have gradually become shorter, from the previous 25 days, 16 days, nine days, seven days and now only five days, statistics indicated.

Illegal border crossings surge, posing challenges to epidemic control: immigration authority

Chinese border police stand guard at the Nansan border crossing in Lincang, Yunnan on Friday. Photo: Cui Meng/GT

China had witnessed a year-on-year increase of 202 percent and 248 percent, respectively, in suspects of illegal border crossing and stowaways seized, officials from the National Immigration Administration (NIA) said on Monday.

Chinese police have seized 17,285 suspects and 18,639 stowaways since December 2020, NIA officials said at a press conference, noting that smugglers are applying secretive and multiple contact and travel methods, creating new challenges to China's border management during the pandemic and posing challenges to epidemic prevention.

China launched a campaign to crack down on border crimes in December 2020. Since then, 1,509 criminal cases had been dealt with, 4,537 suspects had been arrested and 151 criminal groups had been stopped at exit-and-entry ports in Southwest China's Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region alone, said Liu Haitao, a senior official with the National Immigration Administration. 

The two regions have long borders and complex geographical environments and many cross-border residents live here, making the regions a high-risk area for cross-border crimes.

Smuggling groups across Southwest China borders are highly organized. They have a clear division of work among members and apply secretive and multiple contact and travel methods. 

Some foreigners are trying to illegally enter China and Chinese stowaways tried to exit the country to engage in cross-border crimes such as gambling and fraud, according to Liu.

"Some Chinese and foreign residents living near the borders have been engaged in smuggling, providing convenience to smugglers in delivery and accommodation," Liu noted.

In one case in January, officers at a port in Dehong, Yunnan, seized two Chinese nationals trying to leave the country via illegal means, after the officers discovered a gambling and fraud gang. Forty-four suspects have been charged and 19 detained in the case.

In another in April, immigration authorities in Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Hunan provinces worked together to crack down on a smuggling gang, seizing 363 foreign stowaways and uncovering 58 factories suspected of illegal employment.

Smuggling is also causing challenges to China's epidemic management during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In September 2020, a number of cases were recorded in Ruili, a major China-Myanmar border city in Yunnan, after infected Myanmar nationals were smuggled into the region.   

Source:https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1225300.shtml;

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1225016.shtml

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/when-will-china-reopening-borders.htm

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