比尔·盖茨：为什么我不想再讲“发展中”国家了
我需要停止谈论发达国家和发展中国家。
我已故的朋友汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）称这些标签“过时”且“没有意义”。任何将中国和刚果民主共和国归为一类的做法都太宽泛而不实用。但一直以来，我在公开场合（以及在我的博客里）都在使用“发达”和“发展中”这两个词，因为以前没有更准确、更易理解的替代词出现，直至这本书的出现。
我最近读了汉斯的新书《真相：十个理由告诉你我们错看了世界——以及为什么事情比你想象的更好》（Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think，中文名暂译）。在这本书中，他为我们如何看待这个世界提供了一个新的框架。汉斯提出了四个收入群体（最多的人生活在其中的第二层）：
10亿人生活在第一层。这就是我们认为的极端贫困人口。如果你在第一层，你靠每天不到2美元（约13元人民币，译者注）生存，并且只能光脚走来走去。你在露天明火上煮饭，一天中的大部分时间都用来取水。夜里，你和孩子们只能睡在肮脏的地上。
30亿人生活在第二层，每天生活费在2到8美元之间（约13-50元人民币，译者注）。生活在第二层意味着你能买得起鞋甚至自行车，所以取水不用花太长时间。你的孩子可以上学而不用整日工作。你有自己的煤气炉可以做晚餐，家人睡在床上而不是地板上。
20亿人生活在第三层，每天生活费在8到32美元之间（约50-200元人民币，译者注）。你家里有自来水和冰箱。你还能买得起摩托车，使得出行变得更加方便。你的一些孩子开始接受（甚至完成了）高中教育。
10亿人生活在第四层。如果你每天花钱超过32美元（约200元人民币，译者注），那你就在第四层上。你至少拥有高中学历，而且很可能买得起车，还能偶尔出去度个假。
这对我来说称得上是一项突破。汉斯阐述的这个框架，是我在全球发展领域工作了几十年之后才自己领会到的，而我从没能以如此清晰的方式将它表达出来。从此以后我将尝试使用这个模型。
它为什么重要？因为如果你只把世界分成发达国家和发展中国家，就很难了解到世界的进步。如果只有这两个选项，你很可能认为所有没达到特定生活质量的人都是“穷人”。
汉斯把这种直觉比作站在摩天大楼的顶端俯瞰一座城市。无论周围其它建筑是十层楼高还是五十层楼高，在你看来它们都很矮。收入的对比也是如此。第二层的生活明显比第一层的要好得多，但身处第四层的人就很难看出这种差别，除非你知道如何才能找出差别。
https://v.qq.com/txp/iframe/player.html?vid=p0627zyvxhu&width=500&height=375&auto=0
四个收入群体只是《真相》里的许多深刻见解之一，它们将帮助你更好地理解这个世界。直到生命的最后几天，汉斯还在进行这本书的创作（甚至还将几个章节带上了去往医院的救护车）。他的儿子奥拉和儿媳安娜在他过世后协助完成了这本书。
这本书的大部分内容讲述的是十种让我们无法看清世界真相的直觉。从关于恐惧的直觉（我们更留意吓人的事）到关于大小的直觉（独立报表上的数字通常比实际的业绩更好看）再到关于差距的直觉（大多数人处于两个极端之间）。介绍每一点的同时，他还提供了关于如何克服我们与生俱来的偏见的实用建议。
汉斯认为，这些直觉使人们难以正确地看待一些事件。想象一篇关于自然灾害的新闻报道——比如一场在小镇上造成10人死亡的龙卷风。如果只看标题，你会认为这是一个难以接受的悲剧（事实也的确如此）。但是如果把它放在历史背景下，你会知道由于有了先进的预警系统，龙卷风的致死率已经比过去要小得多。这并不能宽慰那些逝者的亲人，但对于在龙卷风中幸存下来的每个人来说，这却是一个很重要的信息。
换句话说，这个世界既是不好的又是更好的。这个想法引导着我和梅琳达每天所做的工作，而汉斯在《真相》中把这一想法表达得非常美。这是一部可以与斯蒂芬•平克（Steven Pinker）的《当下的启蒙》（Enlightenment Now）相提并论的伟大作品（虽然汉斯没有平克那么学术）。除了少数例外，人类社会的大多数奇迹都是经过很长一段时间被构建出来的，而进步是一点点产生的。在过去的二十年里，我们已经将极端贫困人口数量减少了一半，但还从来没有一个类似“贫困率大幅下降”的标题占据报纸的头条。
另一个关于《真相》和汉斯本人的非凡之处在于，他不会因为任何人的错误观念而对其进行论断。大多数作家会因为人们的无知而大肆抨击，可他没有。汉斯甚至拒绝抨击媒体。相反，他会讲述自己也曾有过的无知。他解释说，正是这些直觉让我们充满人性，克服它们并不容易。
这就是典型的汉斯。他总是善良、耐心、从不论断。他不仅用其一生研究全球健康是如何改善的，而且以一种既有趣又清晰的方式同许多人分享他的收获。如果你从来没有见过汉斯，也没看过他的TED演讲，那《真相》这本书将会帮助你了解他为什么如此特别。我多么希望能亲口告诉汉斯我有多喜欢这本书。《真相》是一本出色的著作，我希望有很多人能读到它。
Why I want to stop talking about the "developing" world
I need to stop talking about the developed and the developing world.
My late friend Hans Rosling called the labels “outdated” and “meaningless”. Any categorization that lumps together China and the Democratic Republic of Congo is too broad to be useful. But I’ve continued to use “developed” and “developing” in public (and on this blog) because there wasn’t a more accurate, easily understandable alternative – until now.
I recently read Hans’ new book Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think. In it, he offers a new framework for how to think about the world. Hans proposes four income groups (with the largest number of people living on level 2):
One billion people live on level 1. This is what we think of as extreme poverty. If you’re on level 1, you survive on less than $2 a day and get around by walking barefoot. Your food is cooked over an open fire, and you spend most of your day traveling to fetch water. At night, you and your children sleep on a dirt floor.
Three billion people live on level 2, between $2 and $8 a day. Level 2 means that you can buy shoes and maybe a bike, so it doesn’t take so long to get water. Your kids go to school instead of working all day. Dinner is made over a gas stove, and your family sleeps on mattresses instead of the floor.
Two billion people live on level 3, between $8 and $32 a day. You have running water and a fridge in your home. You can also afford a motorbike to make getting around easier. Some of your kids start (and even finish) high school.
One billion people live on level 4. If you spend more than $32 a day, you’re on level 4. You have at least a high school education and can probably afford to buy a car and take a vacation once in a while.
This was a breakthrough to me. The framework Hans enunciates is one that took me decades of working in global development to create for myself, and I could have never expressed it in such a clear way. I’m going to try to use this model moving forward.
Why does it matter? It’s hard to pick up on progress if you divide the world into rich countries and poor countries. When those are the only two options, you’re more likely to think anyone who doesn’t have a certain quality of life is “poor.”
Hans compares this instinct to standing on top of a skyscraper and looking down at a city. All of the other buildings will look short to you whether they’re ten stories or 50 stories high. It’s the same with income. Life is significantly better for those on level 2 than level 1, but it’s hard to see that from level 4 unless you know to look for it.
The four levels are just one of many insights in Factfulness that will help you better understand the world. Hans worked on the book until his last days (even bringing several chapters with him in the ambulance to the hospital), and his son Ola and daughter-in-law Anna helped finish it after he passed.
The bulk of the book is devoted to ten instincts that keep us from seeing the world factfully. These range from the fear instinct (we pay more attention to scary things) to the size instinct (standalone numbers often look more impressive than they really are) to the gap instinct (most people fall between two extremes). With each one, he offers practical advice about how to overcome our innate biases.
Hans argues that these instincts make it difficult to put events in perspective. Imagine news coverage about a natural disaster—say, a tornado that kills 10 people in a small town. If you look at only the headlines, you’ll view the event as an unbearable tragedy (which it is). But if you put it in the context of history, you’ll also know that tornadoes today are a lot less deadly than they used to be, thanks to advanced warning systems. That’s no consolation to the loved ones of those who died, but it matters a great deal to everyone who survived the tornado.
In other words, the world can be both bad and better. That idea drives the work Melinda and I do every day, and Hans articulates it beautifully in Factfulness. It’s a great companion to Steven Pinker’s Enlightenment Now (although Hans is a little less academic than Pinker is). With rare exceptions, most of the miracles of humankind are long-term, constructed things. Progress comes bit by bit. We’ve cut the number of people living in extreme poverty by half over the last twenty years, but there was never a morning when “POVERTY RATES DROP INCREMENTALLY” dominated newspaper headlines.
Another remarkable thing about Factfulness—and about Hans himself—is that he refuses to judge anyone for their misconceptions. Most writers would beat people up for their ignorance, but he doesn’t. Hans even resists going after the media. Instead, he tells you about the history of his own ignorance. He explains that these instincts make us human, and that overcoming them isn’t easy.
That’s classic Hans. He was always kind, often patient, and never judgmental. He spent his life not only understanding how global health was improving but sharing what he learned in a fun, clear way with a broad set of people. If you never met Hans or watched one of his many TED talks, Factfulness will help you get a sense of why he was so special. I wish I could tell Hans how much I liked it. Factfulness is a fantastic book, and I hope a lot of people read it.