When the first microwave oven hit the market in 1955, it cost roughly $12,000 in today’s dollars. These days you can pick one up at Walmart for $50.当第一台微波炉于1955年上市时,其价格换算成现今的价格,相当于近12,000美元。如今,你花费50美元就能在沃尔玛买到一台。
It’s not hard to figure out why the cost dropped so dramatically. Microwaves had new features that customers liked, and they did some things better than gas or electric ovens. As demand for them rose, more companies got into the game, finding ways to make them more efficiently, building supply chains, and driving the price down. As microwaves got cheaper, more people bought them, which attracted more innovation, and so on in a virtuous cycle.想要理解微波炉的价格为何能有如此大的降幅并不难。在过去,微波炉带来了顾客喜欢的新功能,而且微波炉在某些方面比燃气炉或电热炉表现更好。随着微波炉需求量的上升,更多的公司参与了进来,想方设法提高微波炉的生产效率,建立供应链,并推动价格下降。随着微波炉价格的降低和消费量的提高,进而吸引了更多的创新,如此往复,形成良性循环。
Some clean-energy products work the same way—solar power has become dramatically cheaper over the past few decades—but many don’t. At least, not yet.一些清洁能源产品以同样的方式运作——在过去的几十年里,太阳能的价格已大幅降低——但许多产品却不是这样。至少,现在还不是。
Most green technologies are still more expensive than whatever they’re trying to replace, a cost difference I call Green Premiums. They don’t do the job better (other than contributing less to climate change, of course)—and in many cases, they do the job worse.大多数绿色技术仍然比它们试图取代的东西更昂贵,我将这种价格差异称作绿色溢价。这些绿色技术并没有做得更好(当然,除了对气候变化的影响更小之外)—— 相反在许多情况下,它们表现得更差。
This is bad news for the fight against climate change. The world needs to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and reaching that point will take inventing and deploying many more clean-energy products. Although it’s great that governments are putting more money into green recovery programs and people are becoming more willing to pay the Green Premium for, say, building materials, innovation isn’t coming fast enough. Products aren’t getting cheaper or better fast enough, and the market isn’t growing as fast as it could—or needs to.这对抗击气候变化来说是个坏消息。世界需要在2050年前实现温室气体净零排放,要做到这一点需要发明和应用更多的清洁能源产品。尽管我们高兴地看到各国政府正在不断加大对绿色复苏项目的投资,公众对于在购买如建筑材料这样的产品时支付绿色溢价的意愿也在不断提高,但创新的速度还不够快。产品降低价格、提高品质的速度还不够快,市场也没有以最大增速扩张——或者说没有达到期望值。
Climate change isn’t the only reason we should speed things up. Research shows that U.S. voters understand how developing clean technologies will spark new industries, creating blue-collar jobs in fields like American manufacturing that have seen big declines in the past few decades.气候变化并不是我们应该加快步伐的唯一原因。研究表明,美国选民了解发展清洁技术将会催生新的产业,这将为过去几十年里大幅下滑的美国制造业提供蓝领工作岗位。
To accelerate the virtuous cycle of innovation, we need a new model for financing, producing, and buying new clean-energy technology.为加速创新的良性循环,我们需要新模式来融资、生产和购买新清洁能源技术。
One new model is being created by Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, a coalition of philanthropists, companies, and governments. The goal is to make the other green products follow the same cycle of early adoption, innovation, and cost reductions that made solar power and microwave ovens so much cheaper.“突破能源催化剂项目”正在创建一个全新模式,这是一个由慈善家、企业和政府组成的联盟。其目标是让其他绿色产品遵循相同的周期,即早期应用、创新和降低成本,这正是使太阳能和微波炉价格实现大幅下降的方式。
Catalyst has identified four areas that are ripe for this approach. In each area, there are some new technologies that are out of the research and development phase and ready to be deployed, but they’re not yet mature enough to draw major investors. So a relatively modest infusion of cash can make a big difference.“催化剂项目”已经确定了四个可适用这种模式的成熟领域。在每一个领域,都有一些新技术已经脱离了研发阶段,准备投入使用,但它们还不够成熟,不足以吸引主要投资者。因此,适度的现金激励可以产生巨大的影响。
How will Catalyst work in practice? Let’s say an airline wants to contribute meaningfully to fighting climate change. Its most obvious option is to buy sustainable fuel—but that fuel is in short supply, because so little of it is made, and it’s very expensive.“催化剂项目”将如何在实践中发挥作用?假设一家航空公司想为应对气候变化做出有意义的贡献。它最倾向于选择购买可持续燃料——但这种燃料供应短缺,因为产量太少,而且非常昂贵。
Through BE Catalyst, the airline will be able to invest in a large refinery that produces a high volume of sustainable fuel. As the refinery gets going, the airline can start buying fuel there. Even better, once the plant’s design is proven to work, the cost of building subsequent plants will drop. With more refineries in operation, the volume of available fuel will go up and the price will come down, which will make it more attractive to buyers, which will draw more innovative companies into the market. The virtuous cycle will accelerate.通过“突破能源催化剂项目”,航空公司将能够投资一个大规模生产可持续燃料的大型能源加工厂。随着工厂的运行,航空公司便可以开始从那里购买燃料。更重要是,一旦这个能源加工厂的设计被证明是可行的,建造后续工厂的成本就会降低。随着更多的能源加工厂投入运营,可购买的燃料量将增加,而价格将随之下降,这将使这一可持续能源对买家更具吸引力,进而吸引更多的创新公司进入市场,从而加速这样的良性循环。
You may be wondering: What’s in it for the airline? This is not some vague feel-good gesture. Catalyst and its nonprofit partner CDP are creating a tool that will allow everyone who invests in Catalyst to calculate how much their funding will drive down future emissions. In short, the tool will say: Invest $1 and this is the impact you’ll have in the years ahead. In that way, investing in clean-energy projects can become a competitive advantage.你可能想知道:这对航空公司有什么好处?这不是什么盲目的自我感觉良好。“催化剂项目”和参与该项目的非盈利合作伙伴“全球环境信息研究中心(CDP)”正在开发一个工具,让每个投资“催化剂项目”的人都能计算出他们的资金将在多大程度上减少未来的排放。简而言之,这个工具会告诉你:“投入1美元,那么它将在未来的岁月里产生如此的影响。” 通过这种方式,投资清洁能源项目可以成为一种竞争优势。
And aviation is just one example. Catalyst is also relevant for utility companies that need long-duration storage, steel manufacturers that need green hydrogen, and companies that need direct air capture to meet their commitments on emissions.航空只是一个例子。“催化剂项目”也同样适用于需要长效储能的电力公司、需要绿色氢气的炼钢厂,以及需要直接空气捕获技术以履行其排放承诺的企业。
Just like any investment that grows in value over time, the earlier a company gets in, the more impact they’ll have. They’ll be able to tell potential investors: “We know how much we’re contributing to the world’s zero-emissions goal. If this is something you value, invest in us.”就像任何价值随时间推移而增长的投资一样,一家公司越早进入,其影响力就越大。他们将能够告诉潜在投资者:“我们知道我们为全球净零排放目标做出的贡献有多大。如果实现这一目标也是你所重视的,请投资我们。”
CDP will publish a report in September explaining how the tool will work, and we expect to launch an interactive version at the COP26 in Glasgow.CDP将在9月发布一份报告,讲解上述工具的功能,我们预计将在于格拉斯哥举行的第26届联合国气候变化大会上发布该工具的互动版本。
Catalyst will fund its first projects next year, and we’ve already announced its first major funding partnership. Over the next five years, the European Commission and Catalyst will mobilize a total of $1 billion (€820 million), in partnership with the European Investment Bank, to build large-scale, commercial demonstration projects in Europe that fit within the four areas I mentioned earlier. Our goal is to reduce the costs of these approaches, get them deployed faster, and help deliver on the EU’s ambitious climate goals. I hope to be announcing more partnerships like this one later this year.“催化剂项目”将在明年为第一批项目提供资金,我们已经宣布了第一个主要融资伙伴关系。未来五年,欧盟委员会和“催化剂项目”将与欧洲投资银行合作,筹集总额为10亿美元(8.2亿欧元)的资金,在欧洲建设前述四个领域内的大型商业化示范项目。我们的目标是降低相应产品的成本,让它们更快地投入使用,并帮助实现欧盟雄心勃勃的气候目标。我希望在今年晚些时候能宣布更多像这样的伙伴关系。
I’m excited about Catalyst and think it can help make clean-energy innovations more available and affordable for everyone.我对“催化剂项目”感到兴奋,我认为它有助于使清洁能源创新技术对每个人来说都更易获得,也更可负担。