让机器人成为现实的初创公司 | 盖茨笔记

机器模仿人类的运动方式更难，还是模仿人类的思考方式更难？如果你在十年前问我这个问题，我的答案一定是“思考”。毕竟大脑的工作方式仍有很多神秘之处。然而，就在去年，人工智能的进步已经让计算机程序能够以类似人类的方式进行创造、计算、处理、理解、决策、识别模式，并继续学习。

制造像我们身体一样运作的机器——一样地行走、跳跃、触摸、握持、挤压、抓握、攀爬、切割和伸展（甚至更好），似乎比起模仿人类思维来说是一个更容易的任务。但出乎意料的是，事实并非如此。许多机器人仍然难以执行一些需要灵巧性、运动能力和认知能力的基本任务，而这些能力对于大多数人来说都是理所当然的。

但如果我们掌握了正确的技术，机器人的用途几乎是无限的：在自然灾害发生时，机器人可以协助救援，这样一来，急救人员就不必冒生命危险了——例如在新冠肺炎大流行这样的公共卫生危机期间，当人际间互动可能导致疾病传播时。在农场，他们可以代替有毒的化学除草剂，手动拔除杂草。在工厂车间，它们可以长时间拖着成百上千磅的重物工作。一个足够好的机械臂作为假肢也是非常有价值的。

我理解对于机器人夺走人类工作的担忧，这几乎是每项创新皆会导致的不幸后果——包括互联网（例如，互联网让每个人都成了旅行社，并淘汰了大部分度假规划行业）。如果机器人对就业产生类似的影响，政府和私营部门就必须帮助人们应对这一转变。但考虑到目前经济中的劳动力短缺问题，以及某些职业的危险性或缺乏回报性，我相信机器人替代我们热爱的工作的可能性较小，它们更有可能做人们不想做的工作。在这个过程中，它们可以使我们更安全、更健康、更高效，甚至减少孤独感。

这就是为什么我对全国乃至全球那些处于机器人技术前沿的公司感到如此兴奋，它们正努力引领一场机器人革命。他们的一些机器人是仿人或类人结构的——构造得能够在为人类设计的环境中轻松互动。还有一些机器人具有飞行或可伸展手臂等超人特性，可以增强普通人的能力。有些机器人靠腿移动，其它的则有轮子。有些使用传感器导航，其它的则由遥控操作。

尽管它们有所不同，但有一点是肯定的：在医疗保健、酒店业、农业、制造业、建筑业，甚至我们的家庭中，机器人都有潜力改变我们的生活和工作方式。事实上，有一些已经在做了。

以下是一些我感到兴奋的尖端机器人技术初创公司和实验室：

Agility Robotics

如果我们希望机器人尽可能无缝地在我们的环境中运作，也许这些机器人应该以人类为模型。这正是位于俄勒冈州的Agility Robotics在创造机器人“Digit”时的想法，他们称之为“首个以人为中心的、多用途的、用于物流工作的机器人”。它的大小大致与一个人类相当——它被设计为与人类一起工作，在我们所到之处运作，并融入我们的工作流程。但它能够携带更重的负载，并能伸展其“手臂”以够到我们需要梯子才能够到的架子。

Tevel

对于一些富裕国家的农民来说，大约40%的种植成本来自劳动力——工人们要在烈日下暴晒一整天，直至晚上才停工。鉴于农业劳动力短缺，农场经常不得不丢弃未及时收获的水果。这就是为什么成立于特拉维夫的Tevel创造了能够飞行的自动机器人，这些机器人可以扫描树冠并全天候采摘成熟的苹果和核果，同时实时收集全面的采摘数据。

Apptronik

哪个更有用：多个能够反复执行单一任务的机器人，还是一个能够执行多项任务并学会做更多事情的机器人？对于从德州大学以人为本机器人实验室分离出来的，位于奥斯丁的初创公司Apptronik来说，答案显然是后者。因此，他们正在构建像阿波罗（Apollo）这样的“通用型”仿人双足机器人，可以被编程执行一系列任务——从在工厂搬运箱子到帮助做家务。由于阿波罗机器人可以运行第三方软件，因此只需进行软件升级，就能实现新的功能。

RoMeLa

打造一个能够在崎岖且不稳定的地形上导航，并保持平衡而不倒下的机器人绝非易事。但是加州大学洛杉矶分校的机器人与机械实验室（RoMeLa）正在致力于改善机器人的运动能力。他们可能已经用ARTEMIS破解了这一难题，ARTEMIS机器人很可能是世界上最快的“奔跑”机器人，它也很难失去平衡。ARTEMIS还参加了今年七月在法国举行的2023机器人世界杯（RoboCup 2023）。

Field AI

有些机器人不仅需要出色的“身体”，还需要出色的大脑。这正是Field AI——一家位于南加利福尼亚，不造机器人的机器人公司——正在尝试创造的东西。Field AI没有专注于这些机器的硬件，而是为其他公司的机器人开发人工智能软件，使它们能够感知环境，在没有GPS的情况下（在陆地上、水上或空中）导航，甚至相互交流。

Is it harder for machines to mimic the way humans move or the way humans think? If you had asked me this question a decade ago, my answer would have been “think.” So much of how the brain works is still a mystery. And yet, in just the last year, advancements in artificial intelligence have resulted in computer programs that can create, calculate, process, understand, decide, recognize patterns, and continue learning in ways that resemble our own.

Building machines that operate like our bodies—that walk, jump, touch, hold, squeeze, grip, climb, slice, and reach like we do (or better)—would seem to be an easier feat in comparison. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been. Many robots still struggle to perform basic human tasks that require the dexterity, mobility, and cognition most of us take for granted.

But if we get the technology right, the uses for robots will be almost limitless: Robots can help during natural disasters when first responders would otherwise have to put their lives on the line—or during public health crises like the COVID pandemic, when in-person interactions might spread disease. On farms, they can be used instead of toxic chemical herbicides to manually pull weeds. They can work long days lugging hundred- or thousand-pound loads around factory floors. A good enough robotic arm will also be invaluable as a prosthesis.

I understand concerns about robots taking people’s jobs, an unfortunate consequence of almost every new innovation—including the internet, which (for example) turned everyone into a travel agent and eliminated much of the vacation-planning industry. If robots have a similar impact on employment, governments and the private sector will have to help people navigate the transition. But given present labor shortages in our economy and the dangerous or unrewarding nature of certain professions, I believe it’s less likely that robots replace us in jobs we love and more likely that they’ll do work people don’t want to be doing. In the process, they can make us safer, healthier, more productive, and even less lonely.

That’s why I’m so excited about the companies across the country and around the world that are at the forefront of robotics technology, working to usher in a robotics revolution. Some of their robots are humanoid or human-like—constructed so they can interact easily in environments built for people. Others have super-human traits like flight or extendable arms that can supplement an ordinary person’s abilities. Some move around on legs. Others have wheels. Some navigate using sensors. Others are operated by remote controls.

Despite their differences, though, one thing is certain: In healthcare, hospitality, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and even our homes, robots have the potential to transform the way we live and work. In fact, a few of them already are.

Here are some of the cutting-edge robotics start-ups and labs that I’m excited about:

Agility Robotics

If we want robots to operate in our environments as seamlessly as possible, perhaps those robots should be modeled after people. That’s what Oregon-based Agility Robotics decided when creating Digit, what they call the “first human-centric, multi-purpose robot made for logistics work.” It’s roughly the same size as a person—it’s designed to work with people, go where we go, and operate in our workflows—but it’s able to carry much heavier loads and extend its “arms” to reach shelves we’d need ladders for.

Tevel

For farmers in some rich countries, around 40 percent of costs can come from labor—with workers spending entire days out in the hot sun and then stopping at night. But given the labor shortage in agriculture, farms often have to throw away fruit that’s not harvested in time. That’s why Tevel, founded in Tel Aviv, has created flying autonomous robots that can scan tree canopies and pick ripe apples and stone fruits around the clock, while simultaneously collecting comprehensive harvesting data in real time.

Apptronik

What’s more useful: multiple robots that can each do one task over and over, or one robot that can do multiple tasks and learn to do even more? To Apptronik, an Austin-based start-up that spun out of the human-centered robotics lab at the University of Texas, the answer is obvious. So they’re building “general-purpose” humanoid bi-pedal robots like Apollo, which can be programmed to do a wide array of tasks—from carrying boxes in a factory to helping out with household chores. And because it can run software from third parties, Apollo will be just a software update away from new functionalities.

RoMeLa

Building a robot that can navigate rocky and unstable terrain, and retain its balance without falling over, is no small task. But the Robotics and Mechanisms Lab, or RoMeLa, at UCLA is working on improving mobility for robots. They may have cracked the code with ARTEMIS, possibly the fastest “running” robot in the world that’s also difficult to destabilize. ARTEMIS actually competed at the RoboCup 2023, an international soccer competition held in France in July.

Field AI

Some robots don’t just need great “bodies”; they need great brains, too. That’s what Field AI—a robotics company based in Southern California that doesn’t build robots—is trying to create. Instead of focusing on the hardware of these machines, Field AI is developing AI software for other companies’ robots that enables them to perceive their environments, navigate without GPS (on land, by water, or in the air), and even communicate with each other.