世纪睿科：跨平台运营展现实力，多平台共拓成长空间

Century Sage Scientific Holdings 

(1450 HK)

跨平台运营展现实力，多平台共拓成长空间

Lucrative cross-platform operations boost profit potential

TP：HKD5.21    BUY (maintain)

投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

直播电商保持高景气， 淘宝直播发力内容化战略

直播电商行业有望保持高速增长。据网经社，2022年行业交易规模预计达到34879亿，2019-2022E三年CARG98.83%。目前抖音依靠短视频平台用户流量优势快速切入直播电商赛道，据星图数据，22年1月-9月抖音、快手、淘宝直播电商市场占比分别为40.50%、32.00%、27.50%。近期淘宝直播发力内容化战略：1) 直播本域与首猜（首页猜你喜欢）、逛逛、搜索、有好货等手淘场域以及点淘实现“大公域贯通，打开流量增长空间。2）流量分配机制从成交主要指标改为成交、内容双指标，单独开辟“内容”流量池扶持直播间内容发展。3）发布主播政策激励主播发展，吸引新主播入驻淘宝。内容化战略下“交个朋友”、遥望网络、无忧传媒及旗下主播均选择跨平台入驻淘宝直播，跨平台MCN有望受益平台政策拓展潜在市场空间。

Taobao Live’s content strategy leverages livestream ecommerce boom 

We expect the livestream ecommerce industry will maintain rapid growth. NetEconomics estimates a transaction market of RMB3487.9bn in 2022E, implying a 98.83% CAGR over the three years of 2019-22E. Douyin (TikTok) is leveraging its user traffic advantage in short videos to quickly enter the livestream ecommerce market. Star Map data shows that Douyin, Kuaishou and Taobao have livestream ecommerce market shares of 40.5%, 32.0% and 27.5%, respectively. 

Taobao Live recently released its content-based strategy: 

•Livestream local domain and first recommendations (where the system guesses your potential Likes on the home page), shopping, search and other mobile Taobao domains as well as Diantao would penetrate big public domains to create new user traffic growth. 

•A shift in its traffic distribution mechanism from transactions as the main indicator to dual indicators of transactions and content. A separate new content-based traffic pool will support content development in livestream rooms. 

•The release of regulatory policies for anchors would harness their development as well as attract new anchors to Taobao, in our view. Under the content strategy, anchors chosen from Make-a-Friend, Yowant Network and Wuyou Media would straddle cross-platforms via Taobao Live. MCNs would benefit from the cross-platform policy in terms of market expansion potential.

交个朋友：跨平台运营开拓增量空间

10月24日交个朋友携旗下主播罗永浩开启淘宝首播，当日场观达到2657万，首播交易额超过1亿，淘宝直播首战告捷，双十一期间交个朋友淘宝直播间平均UV达到459.02万，达到同期抖音交个朋友直播间UV的164%，双十一期间“交个朋友”淘宝直播间单场客单价在170元至1050元之间，总成交额突破3亿。我们认为，交个朋友持续布局淘宝直播平台：1）入淘过程沿用成功经验，罗永浩个人IP快速吸引流量聚集；2）自建完善供应链体系有望承接淘宝平台丰富商品资源，拓宽品类丰富度；3）直播间过往运营经验适配淘宝平台活动玩法。配合淘宝直播平台商品丰富度、用户消费意愿优势与流量倾斜，“交个朋友”有望能够在新环境中实现交易额快速增长，缔造全新增长曲线。

Make-a-Friend: cross-platform operations open up incremental growth potential 

The Taobao Live initiative had a roaring start. Make-a-Friend anchor Luo Yonghao premiered on Taobao Live on 24 Oct. Viewership reached 26.57m on the day with more than 100m transactions in that first broadcast. During Double-11 promotions, average Taobao Live UV in livestream rooms reached 4.59m, 164% of Douyin’s livestream room UV in the same period. Double-11 per-customer purchases in the Make-a-Friend room on Taobao Live ranged RMB170-1,050, while total turnover exceeded RMB300m. We believe Make-a-Friend will continue to drive growth on the Taobao Live platform: 

•Luo Yonghao’s successful entry to Taobao has boosted his personal IP value as well as the platform’s user traffic flow potential.

•A self-sufficient quality supply chain would enrich product resources on the Taobao platform and widen product categories.

•Operating experience in livestream rooms would adapt well to Taobao platform activity and gameplay. With the combination of a rich product matrix on Taobao Live, advantages like users’ consumption willingness and traffic flows, we expect Make-a-Friend will achieve rapid growth in transaction volume in the platform and create a new growth trajectory.

世纪睿科：“交个朋友”运营过渡完成，开启高速成长

根据世纪睿科与“交个朋友”签订的5年独家合作协议，世纪睿科已取得“交个朋友”旗下所有账号运营权与相关运营收入，我们认为，公司业务重心或转向新媒体营销服务。随“交个朋友”入驻淘宝直播平台，开启全新增量空间，公司新媒体营销服务收入或将实现快速增长，公司业绩有望超预期发展。

Century Sage Scientific: Make-a-Friend pays off as high-growth cycle kicks in 

According to the five-year exclusive cooperation agreement between Century Sage Scientific and Make-a-Friend, Century Sage Scientific holds all account operating rights and related operating income of Make-a-Friend. We believe that the company’s business focus could shift toward new media marketing services. With the entry of Make-a-Friend to Taobao Live, we see new incremental growth. The company’s new media marketing service revenue is likely to grow fast as performance exceeds expectations.

投资建议/Investment Ideas

投资建议：受益直播电商高景气与跨平台业绩增量，世纪睿科新媒体营销服务有望成为公司核心业务并进一步巩固盈利能力。我们预计2022-2024年公司实现营收3.86/10.37/14.65 亿元，同比增长 91%/169%/41%，2023/2024年实现净损益2.49/3.78 亿元，同比增长 401%/52%。考虑“交个朋友”在直播电商赛道处于头部领先地位，且具有稳固竞争壁垒与潜在业务增长空间，我们参考MCN公司估值水平给予世纪睿科2023年25倍PE，对应目标价5.21港元。维持“买入”评级不变。

Valuation and risks

Propelled by the rise of livestream ecommerce and incremental cross-platform performance, Century Sage Scientific’s new media marketing services are set to become its core business on profit consolidation. We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB386m/1.04bn/1.47bn in 2022/23/24E, yoy increases of 91/169/41%, and net profit of RMB249m/378m in 2023/24E, yoy increases of 401/52%. Considering that Make-a-Friend holds the pole position in the livestream ecommerce market, enjoys solid competitive barriers and faces business growth prospects, we factor relative MCN peer valuations to assign a 25x PE in 2023E, corresponding to our target price of HKD5.21. We maintain our BUY rating.

风险提示：消费需求下降风险、MCN机构政策监管风险、跨市场运营表现不及预期风险、跨市场估值风险

Risks include: declining consumer demand; policy regulation risks for MCN institutions; cross-market operational performance falling short of expectations; and cross-market valuation risks.

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