莱茵生物： 美国联邦层面cannabis合法化加速推进，利好公司美国CBD提取业务！

Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients 

(002166 CH)

美国联邦层面cannabis合法化加速推进，利好公司美国CBD提取业务！

New US cannabis research law steps toward future federal legalization; bodes well for Layn’s CBD extraction business

BUY (maintain)

投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

事件：12月2日，拜登正式签署《医用大麻和大麻二酚研究扩展法案》，成为美国历史上第一项独立的联邦cannabis改革法案，旨在减少研究人员对其研究的阻碍，并希望为患者提供更多的治疗选择。

具体内容包括1）鼓励FDA开发cannabis衍生药物，比如允许经过认证的从业者、研究机构等为研究目的自行种植cannabis。2）美国缉毒局(DEA)被授权批准cannabis衍生药品（获FDA批准）制造商的申请，制造商也将被允许进口cannabis材料，以促进对该植物治疗潜力的研究。3）要求卫生与公众服务部(HHS)研究cannabis的健康益处和风险，以及限制研究合法州种植的cannabis的相关政策并提供克服这些阻碍的建议等。

Marijuana market reform milestone: new US law eases research restrictions

US President Joe Biden effected the Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Act on 2 Dec, signing into law the country’s first stand-alone federal cannabis reform bill. This makes it easier for scientists to access the drug to study its therapeutic uses and paves the way to more treatment options for patients. Key details include:

•encouraging the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve the development of cannabis-derived drugs, including allowing certified practitioners and research institutions to grow their own cannabis for research purposes.

•authorizing the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to approve manufacturers’ applications for FDA-approved cannabis-derived drug products. Manufacturers will also be allowed to import cannabis materials to facilitate research into the plant’s therapeutic potential. 

•requiring the Department of Health and Human Services to study the health benefits and risks of cannabis, and the policies that restrict research on cannabis grown in legal states while providing recommendations to overcome these impediments.

莱茵生物：于美国建立全球最大工业大麻提取工厂，享受行业快速增长红利

公司于2019年正式布局工业大麻，累计投资8000万美元在美建设“工业大麻提取工厂”，于2022年6月底正式量产，为目前全球最大工业大麻提取工厂，被印第安纳州政府列为示范项目，预计年处理原料5000吨，项目毛利率可达50%；同时孙公司HempRise,LLC已与一家全球工业大麻主流企业签订《受托加工意向协议》，预计后续还有更多订单意向。政策方面，4月1日美国众议院第二次通过联邦cannabis合法化法案（MORE Act）；同时参议院联邦合法化法案《大麻管理与机会法案》（CAOA）于7月底正式提交，美国总统拜登亦于10月6日发布声明表示将对联邦层面cannabis合法化事项进行行政审查，联邦层面cannabis合法化或将加速推进，市场有望快速扩容。我们认为，未来公司有望复用其在植物提取领域打造的渠道、客户、品牌优势，快速打开CBD国际市场，享受行业快速增长红利。

Layn’s largest global industrial hemp extraction plant in US rides industry wave 

The company entered the industrial hemp market in 2019 and invested USD80m to build an industrial hemp extraction plant in the US. It achieved mass production in June 2022. Designated a pilot project by the Indiana state government, the plant is currently the world’s largest industrial hemp extraction facility. Layn expects to process 5ktpa of raw materials and gross margins could go up to 50%. Run by subsidiary HempRise, it signed an entrusted processing intent agreement with a mainstream global industrial hemp company that states an intention to place more orders in the future. 

Run-up to the new law:

•1 April: for the second time, the US House of Representatives passed the bill for the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act (MORE) to end federal prohibition on cannabis. 

•July: the US Senate submitted the bill for the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA) to decriminalize, regulate and tax cannabis. 

•6 October: Biden announced he would conduct a federal-level administrative review of the legalization of cannabis. This was a step toward the anticipated federal legalization of cannabis, which we expect will drive rapid market growth. 

We believe Layn will leverage its plant extraction business advantages in channels, customers and branding to quickly ramp up the global CBD market in the future. It is well positioned to reap the fruits of rapid industry growth in the future, in our view.

替糖行业隐形冠军，持续夯实天然甜味剂业务核心竞争力

公司天然甜味剂产品已与可口可乐、百事等众多国际知名客户建立合作关系，2018年与美国最大香精香料公司芬美意签订独家分销合同，战略绑定大客户，我们预计后续续签可能性较大；国内市场亦依托上海亚太营销中心及桂林销售部，与众多知名食饮品牌达成合作，签订子承生物（原太子奶团队）1亿元订单，共同推出减糖、无糖产品，市场开拓成效显现。22Q1-Q3公司天然甜味剂实现收入6.16亿元，同比增长47%。同时公司定增落地，预计新增甜叶菊提取物年产量4000吨，产能加速扩张，并且持续提升内生增长动力，拟新增合成生物工艺技术路线，持续夯实天然甜味剂业务核心竞争力。

Sugar substitute hidden champion hones competitive edge in natural sweeteners

Layn partners with many big-name customers in its natural sweetener business, including Coca-Cola and Pepsi. Its major-customer strategy took off in 2018 with an exclusive distribution contract with Firmenich, the largest US flavor and fragrance company and we believe future contract renewals are highly likely. In the Chinese market, Layn partners with well-known F&B brands through the Shanghai Asia-Pacific Marketing Center and Guilin Sales Department and the market development initiatives have yielded results. It signed an RMB100m order with Zicheng Bio (formerly Prince Dairy) to co-launch reduced-sugar and sugar-free products. Over 22Q1-3, Layn’s natural sweeteners generated revenue of RMB616m, a yoy increase of 47%. The company plans to increase its production capacity and stevia extract output by 4ktpa, accelerate its production capacity ramp-up, and continue its endogenous growth momentum. It plans to add synthetic biological process technology know-how to consolidate its core competitiveness in the natural sweetener business.

投资建议/Investment Ideas

盈利预测及投资建议：我们认为，公司受益于“减糖”大趋势，天然甜味剂业务进入高速增长期；同时美国工业大麻相关政策持续向好，CBD提取物需求有望加速释放，预计公司22-24年营收为17.45/25.74/36.38亿元，同比增长65.69%/47.52%/41.34%，归母净利润为2.56/3.91/5.94亿元，同比增长115.93%/53.03%/51.72%，维持“买入”评级。

Valuation and risks

Layn’s natural sweetener business is well positioned for the rising market trend of sugar reduction and has entered a rapid growth cycle. As US industrial hemp policies continue to ease, we expect demand for CBD extract will accelerate. We project revenue of RMB1.75bn/2.57bn/3.64bn in 2022/23/24E, up 65.69/47.52/41.34% yoy, and net profit of RMB256m/391m/594m, up 115.93/53.03/51.72% yoy. We maintain our BUY rating.

风险提示：宏观经济风险，技术风险，汇率波动风险，疫情风险；政策风险；工业大麻与中间型大麻、娱乐大麻与毒品严格区分，坚决反对娱乐大麻等合法化；我国目前从未批准工业大麻用于医用和食品添加；相关业务或有政策变动/法律/经营管理/自然/研发操作风险。

Risks include: macroeconomic and technological risks; FX volatility; pandemic control impact; policy risks; strict distinctions being set between industrial hemp and intermediate cannabis, and between recreational marijuana and narcotics; strong opposition to the legalization of recreational marijuana; lack of precedence to industrial hemp for medical use or as a food additive in China; policy changes affecting legal, management, natural and R&D operations in related businesses.

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