港股周报（2023.1.23-2023.1.27）：春节消费复苏趋势明显，积极展望今年整体经济形势复苏

Market Pulse: HK Stocks

春节消费复苏趋势明显，积极展望今年整体经济形势复苏

23-27 Jan review: Chinese New Year consumer uptrend; 2023E prospects for a macroeconomic recovery

投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

本周（2023年1月23日至1月27日）恒生指数收盘22,688.90点，上涨约2.92%。

CNY consumer recovery across various markets; China’s fund inflow continues

The Hang Seng Index closed the week of 23-27 Jan 2023 at 22,688.90 points, up 2.92%. We look at the following key events that drove the market:

春节期间各领域消费复苏趋势明显，资本持续流入中国

春节期间影视复苏趋势明显，1月21日-25日（大年三十至正月初四）实现票房收入46.6亿元，同比增长5.8%；观影人次8598万人，同比增长5.2%；场均人次50人，同比增长33.1%；平均票价54.2元，同比增长0.6%。文旅部1月27日发布的消息显示，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，今年春节假期全国国内旅游出游3.08亿人次，同比增长23.1%，恢复至2019年同期的88.6%；实现国内旅游收入3758.43亿元，同比增长30%，恢复至2019年同期的73.1%。携程平台上，春节期间国内外旅行订单皆迎来三年巅峰，旅游订单整体较虎年春节增长4倍。此外，春节期间出境游整体订单同比增长640%，内地旅客预订境外酒店订单量同比增长超4倍，跨境机票订单增长4倍以上。1月27日，美团发布2023年春节消费数据显示假期前6天日均消费规模比2019年春节增长66%。春节假期前6天，全国多人堂食套餐订单量同比增长53%。春节返乡与节后外出游玩的流动热潮，带动异地消费快速增长。数据显示，异地消费较去年同期增长76%。其中，三亚、成都、重庆、大理、北京等地成为异地消费者堂食订单量最多的前5座城市。1月27日，全国货运物流有序运行，邮政快递揽收量环比增长61.9%。同时国际金融协会的数据显示，在所有新兴市场每天11亿美元的资本流入中，中国的资本流入占8亿美元。

Films: the Chinese New Year holiday (CNY) this year showed a clear recovery trend in the film and TV industry. Over 21-25 Jan (the eve to the fourth day of the first lunar month), box-office revenue amounted to RMB4.66bn, up 5.8% yoy; movie views amounted to 85.98m, up 5.2% yoy; moviegoers per screening averaged 50, up 33.1% yoy; and the average ticket price was RMB54.20, up 0.6% yoy. 

Travel: travelers made 308m trips across China during the CNY holiday this year, up 23.1% yoy, based on data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on 27 Jan. This represents a recovery at 88.6% of the same period in 2019. Domestic tourism revenue amounted to RMB375.84bn, up 30% yoy, recovering to 73.1% of the same period in 2019. Ctrip data shows that domestic and foreign travel orders rose to a three-year peak and total travel orders rose 4x from last year’s CNY in the Year of the Tiger. This year’s Rabbit Year CNY saw total outbound travel orders climb 640% yoy, the number of hotel bookings overseas by mainland tourists spike more than 4x yoy, and cross-border air ticket orders shoot up more than 4x.

F&B: mega shopping app Meituan revealed that average daily consumption during CNY 2023 increased 66% from the same period in 2019. Based on data released on 27 Jan, order numbers for dine-in group set meals rose 53% yoy across China during the first six days of the lunar holiday. The upsurge in holiday homecoming and post-festival outings drove fast growth in offsite consumption; offsite consumption data increased 76% over the same period last year. Popular cities Sanya, Chengdu, Chongqing, Dali and Beijing took the top five spots with the highest dine-in orders made by consumers who had traveled there from elsewhere. China’s freight logistics industry ran smoothly as of 27 Jan as express delivery volumes increased 61.9% mom. 

Fund flows: China accounts for USD800m of the USD1.1bn daily capital inflows to all emerging markets, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.

投资建议/Investment Ideas

建议关注政策环境持续改善下的文娱内容产业机会，如拥有丰富IP资源的平台【阅文集团】，观影需求复苏趋势明确的电影产业，如【欢喜传媒】（春节档《满江红》主控）、【猫眼娱乐】（参投《满江红》）、【IMAXCHINA】、【阿里影业】（淘票票票务平台）；受益于政策改善和游戏版号持续发放如腾讯控股、网易、心动公司；拥有自主版权IP的视频平台，例如爱奇艺（自制剧《狂飙》火爆全网）及受益于整体消费复苏的港股标的【泡泡玛特】【名创优品】。同时密切关注汽车需求在节后恢复情况及政策导向，我们判断今年整车总量变化不大，持续关注国内新势力整车相关标的【理想汽车】【蔚来汽车】【小鹏汽车】

Our investment rationale

We would watch for opportunities that relate to entertainment content providers as the policy environment moderates. These include:

•Platforms with rich IP resources: such as media house China Literature

•Film players with a clear recovery trend driven by moviegoing demand: including Huanxi Media Group (the major investor of River Full of Red, CNY release), Maoyan Entertainment (River Full of Red investor), IMAX China, Alibaba Pictures (Tao Piao Piao ticketing platform)

•Easing policy and game title license approval beneficiaries: such as Tencent, NetEase, XD. 

•Video platforms with independent IP: such as iQiyi (its self-produced drama Punch-out is popular throughout internet spaces)

•H-share beneficiaries of macro consumer recovery: Pop Mart, Miniso

•Post-holiday recovery in automobile demand and policy orientation: we would monitor these opportunities; total vehicle volumes are unlikely to change much this year, so we would watch Chinese new energy names such as Li Auto, Nio, XPeng.

我们重申港股整体Beta是围绕美元流动性改善和对未来中国经济复苏的乐观展望。建议关注“整体港股估值修复”及“复苏下部分标的出现基本面拐点”，我们建议重点关注4条主线及相关公司。复苏及估值修复类1.社交平台：腾讯控股2. 电商&本地生活：拼多多，美团，阿里巴巴，京东集团，万物新生，唯品会，宝尊；复苏的线下场景&需求提升类3. OTA&出行：携程集团，同程旅行4. 博彩：银河娱乐，金沙中国5.消费：泡泡玛特，名创优品6. 电影院线：猫眼娱乐，阿里影业，IMAX CHINA 7. 互联网货运平台（货运需求提升）：满帮集团   8. 互联网招聘（劳动力需求提升）：Boss直聘9. SaaS&云服务：微盟集团，中国有赞，阜博集团，涂鸦智能，中国航信10.互联网医疗平台：京东健康，阿里健康，平安好医生11. 娱乐：哔哩哔哩，快手，腾讯音乐，云音乐，知乎，挚文集团，阅文集团12.智能驾驶：理想汽车，蔚来汽车，小鹏汽车，百度集团；困境反转类13. 在线地产：贝壳14. 电子烟：思摩尔国际；受益于港股中概交易活跃度提升和流动性充裕下的需求提升类15. 交易所及互联网券商：港交所16. 互联网金融：360数科，陆金所（注：拼多多、美团、携程集团、银河娱乐、Boss直聘为商社联合覆盖，金沙中国为新兴产业联合覆盖，同程旅行为商社覆盖，泡泡玛特为商社覆盖，名创优品为商社覆盖，涂鸦智能为通信联合覆盖，京东健康为医药联合覆盖，平安好医生为医药、非银、传媒联合覆盖，理想汽车、小鹏汽车为汽车覆盖，贝壳为地产联合覆盖，思摩尔国际为新兴产业覆盖，港交所为非银覆盖）

We reiterate our stance that Hong Kong stock beta relates to improving USD liquidity and positive sentiment on China’s economic recovery prospects. We suggest investors monitor indicators relating to a macro recovery in H-share valuations and stocks with inflection points driven by a recovery in fundamentals. Our framework centers on stocks with four key investment themes and their related companies: 

(1) Market recovery and valuation repair 

•Social media platforms: Tencent Holdings (0700 HK, BUY)

•Ecommerce and daily necessities: Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY), Meituan (3690 HK, BUY), Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK, BUY), JD.com (9618 HK, BUY).

(2) Offline applications of market recovery and returning demand 

•OTA and mobility: Trip.com (9961 HK, BUY)

•Gaming: Galaxy Entertainment (0027 HK, BUY), Sands China (1928 HK, BUY)

•Consumer: Pop Mart (9992 HK, BUY), Miniso (MNSO US, BUY)

•Cinema chains: Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK, BUY)

•Online recruitment: Kanzhun (BOSS Zhipin) (BZ US, BUY)

•SaaS and cloud services: Weimob (2013 HK, BUY), Tuya (TUYA US, BUY)

•Online medical platforms: JD Health (6618 HK, BUY), Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK, BUY)

•Entertainment: Bilibili (9626 HK, BUY), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK, BUY), Zhihu (ZH US, BUY), China Literature (0772 HK, BUY)

•Smart driving: Li Auto (2015 HK, BUY), XPeng (9868 HK, BUY), Baidu (9888 HK, NEUTRAL; downgrade from BUY).

(3) Post-hardship renewal

•Online real estate: KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY)

•E-cigarettes: Smoore International (6969 HK, BUY).

(4) Beneficiaries of increased trading in H-shares and demand rise on liquidity boost:

•Exchanges and online brokers: Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (0388 HK, BUY).

Coverage desks: Pinduoduo, Meituan, Trip.com, Galaxy Entertainment and Kanzhun are jointly covered by our trading desk; Sands China is jointly covered by the emerging industries desk; Pop Mart and Miniso are covered by the trading desk; Tuya is jointly covered by the communications desk; JD Health is jointly covered by the pharmaceuticals desk; Ping An Healthcare and Technology is jointly covered by pharmaceuticals, non-banks and media; Li Auto and XPeng are covered by the autos desk; KE Holdings is jointly covered by the real estate desk; Smoore International is covered by the emerging industries desk; and HKEX is covered by the non-banks desk. 

Other market players: not rated

ATRenew (RERE US), Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US), Baozun (9991 HK), Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780 HK), Alibaba Pictures Group (1060 HK), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), Full Truck Alliance (YMM US), China Youzan (8083 HK), Vobile Group (3738 HK), Travelsky Technology Limited (0696 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (0241 HK), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK), Cloud Music (9899 HK), Hello Group (MOMO US), NIO (9866 HK), 360 DigiTech (3660 HK), Lufax (LU US).

风险提示：美国和欧洲市场面临持续加息和高通胀率；国内疫情反复风险；国内经济增长放缓；政策刺激效果不足

Risks include: impact of US and European markets facing interest rate hike and inflation pressures; pandemic resurgence in China; slowing domestic economic growth; and insufficient policy stimulus.

Email: [e-mail]

TFI research report website: 

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