新巨丰： 拟收购28%纷美包装股权，短期有望增厚业绩，中长期战略协同加速国产替代

Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging 

(301296 CH)

拟收购28%纷美包装股权，短期有望增厚业绩，中长期战略协同加速国产替代

Greatview stake plan a strategic move to expand aseptic packaging business and boost Chinese substitution

ACCUMULATE (maintain)

投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

拟以8.64亿元收购28%纷美包装股权，交易完成后，新巨丰将成为纷美包装第一大股东。公司公告，拟以现金收购JSH Venture Holdings Limited持有的纷美包装3.77亿股股票，约占标的公司总股份28.22%，本次交易收购对价为每股2.65港元，对应标的资产转让价9.99亿港元，约合人民币8.64亿元。交易完成后，新巨丰将成为标的公司第一大股东。

Plan to buy 28% majority stake in Greatview for RMB864m

The proposal: Xinjufeng Technology Packaging announced plans to acquire a 28% stake in Greatview Aseptic Packaging, which would make Xinjufeng the largest shareholder. It aims to fork out about RMB864m in cash to buy 377m Greatview shares from JSH Venture Holdings, which make up about 28.22% of Greatview’s total shares. The consideration of HKD2.65 per share amounts to an asset transfer price of HKD999m (about RMB864m).

纷美包装为液体食品跨系统无菌包装综合解决方案供应商，向液体乳制品及非碳酸软饮料生产商提供高性价比无菌包装材料和灌装机、零配件等，产品包括纷美砖、纷美枕、纷美冠等。2021及22H1纷美包装收入分别为34.63亿、17.74亿，归母净利分别为2.85亿、0.67亿，22全年预计1.68-1.88亿，28.22%股权对应0.47-0.53亿。

About Greatview: the target company provides a full suite of cross-system aseptic packaging solutions for liquid food. It supplies cost-effective aseptic packaging materials, filling machines and spare parts to liquid dairy and non-carbonated soft drink manufacturers. Product categories include brick, pillow and crown-type packs. Greatview generated revenue of RMB3.46bn in 2021 and RMB1.77bn in 22H1. Net profit was RMB285m in 2021, RMB67m in 22H1, and it is expecting RMB168m-188m for 2022E; Xinjufeng’s 28.22% proposed stake corresponds to RMB47m-53m.

战略入股优质资产，加速推动无菌包装国产替代，提升食品安全。

益普索预计2022年我国常温奶市场854万吨，对无菌包装需求不断增长。目前国内无菌包装仍由外资主导，根据益普索报告，2020年利乐无菌包装销售量（标准包）占全球无菌包装市场销售量约62%；国际无菌包装企业进入中国后，通过灌装机与包装材料捆绑销售的策略，一度占据中国无菌包装市场90%以上市场。为减少对外资供应商依赖，降低采购成本，国内下游客户逐步采用国产包装进行替代。同时，新巨丰本次将纷美28.22%股份从国际资本手中收购，提升国家食品安全，对打造无菌包装民族品牌有一定积极意义。

Strategic quality investment boosts aseptic packaging substitution, food security

Research firm Ipsos estimates a China room-temperature milk market of about 8.54m tons in 2022E. We expect aseptic packaging demand to grow in the Chinese market, which is currently dominated by foreign-funded players. Ipsos data shows Tetra Pak standard aseptic packaging sales volume accounted for about 62% of the global market in 2020. Foreign aseptic packaging companies entered China with a sales strategy of bundling filling machines with packaging materials, which quickly led them to command more than 90% of the Chinese market. When Chinese downstream customers sought to reduce procurement costs and dependence on foreign suppliers, they began to turn to domestic suppliers. Xinjufeng’s plan to take a majority stake in Greatview from foreign hands would not only boost Chinese food security but also help build a national brand in aseptic packaging.  

纷美及新巨丰均为国内无菌包装领军企业，强强联合有望深入合作，助力新巨丰完善产品、客户卡位及市场布局，提升国产品牌整体竞争力，具体来看：

1）产能有望迅速扩张，或将实现跨越式发展。新巨丰预计22年底可拥有约180亿包产能，募投产能100亿包逐步推进；截至22H1纷美拥有300亿包产能，并于22年8月收购意大利Alternapak工厂，预计带来一定产能增量，未来新巨丰总产能或将至少达到580亿包以上。

Lift Chinese competitiveness and Xinjufeng’s quality, customers, global footprint

Capacity expansion: from an estimated 18bn packs of capacity as of the end of 2022, Xinjufeng expects to gradually expand production capacity by 10bn packs. Greatview has a production capacity of 30bn packs as of 22H1. It acquired the Italian Alternapak factory in August 2022, which would augment its future production capacity. This implies that Xinjufeng’s potential total production capacity could reach at least 58bn packs.

2）客户方面，纷美为蒙牛重要供应商，新巨丰亦拥有优质客户资源，截至2021年末已与国内外超过140家知名液态奶、非碳酸饮料行业公司建立了良好的业务合作关系，其中包括伊利、新希望等知名企业，我们认为，新巨丰有望借助纷美既有资源，发挥协同效应，销售渠道或将加速拓展。

Customer resources: while Greatview is a key supplier to dairy leader Mengniu, Xinjufeng itself also has quality customer resources built through strong ties with more than 140 well-known companies as of end-2021 data, including Yili and New Hope. They are mainly in the liquid milk and non-carbonated beverage industries in China and around the world. We expect Xinjufeng will synergize Greatview’s resources to accelerate its sales channel expansion.

3）市场方面，纷美约30%收入来自海外，2021及22H1纷美海外收入分别为10.61亿（同增14.9%）、6.33亿（同增19.6%），并于德国、意大利拥有海外工厂，我们认为，新巨丰亦有望借此进入国际市场。

Global footprint: Greatview’s foreign markets account for about 30% of total revenue, and they generated revenue of RMB1.06bn in 2021 (up 14.9% yoy) and RMB633m in 22H1 (up 19.6% yoy). It has factories in Germany and Italy. We believe Xinjufeng will leverage this opportunity to enter the international market.

4）产品方面，借助纷美灌装机等前端设备生产及销售能力，新巨丰产品及服务有望进一步完善。新巨丰主要产品为辊型无菌包装，包含枕包、砖包、钻石包、金属包；纷美包装为液体食品跨系统无菌包装综合解决方案供应商，其砖包、钻石包、金属包产品规格和类型更为丰富，并且可提供灌装机、零配件等整体解决方案。未来双方将在产品设计研发、销售等开展深入合作，新巨丰有望切入灌装机、配件、技术服务等包装及灌装解决方案业务，完善产品及服务种类。

Product quality and efficiency: Greatview’s production and sales capabilities via front-end equipment such as filling machines could help improve Xinjufeng’s products and services. Xinjufeng’s main products are roll-type aseptic packaging, including pillow, brick and diamond-shaped packs, and metalized packs. Greatview is a comprehensive solutions provider of cross-system aseptic packaging of liquid food. It has more extensive product specifications and categories, including in brick-shaped, diamond-shaped and metalized packs. It also provides holistic solutions such as filling machines and spare parts. The two parties could potentially cooperate in product design, R&D and sales. Xinjufeng could participate in packaging and filling solutions, such as filling machines, accessories and technical services, to extend the range of its products and services.

投资建议/Investment Ideas

盈利预测：我们看好公司凭借质量稳定、具备性价比的产品，深度绑定优质大客户，如暂不考虑收购，我们预计新巨丰22-24年归母净利分别为1.6/2.2/2.9亿，对应PE分别为47X/35X/27X，维持“增持”评级。

Valuation and risks

We like Xinjufeng’s prospects, based on its product quality stability and cost-effective model, which help the company to secure strong major customers. Without including the potential acquisition for now, we forecast net profit will arrive at RMB160m/220m/290m in 2022/23/24E, corresponding to 47/35/27x PE. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating.

风险提示：交易仍需审批，存在被终止或取消的风险；交易标的业绩不达预期的风险；收购后管理风险等。

Risk include: approval and transaction termination risks of the Greatview stake acquisition plan; the acquisition target’s performance failing to meet expectations; and risks related to post-acquisition management.

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