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如何预测中国2021经济发展?只看GDP不可靠! | 数评观点

烽火数闻 烽火数闻DataNews 2021-06-03

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本作品由烽火数闻团队向CGTN供稿,原标题为Why we shouldn't take China's post-pandemic GDP numbers at face value




阅读提要 | 2021下半年GDP增速或比上半年大幅缩减?这只是数字的障眼法······



     
GDP数值背后  是更复杂的图景

In January, the IMF projected that the Chinese economy will grow by 8.1 percent in 2021. Compared with the levels of the U.S., the EU and Russia, the rate is high, especially in view of the fact that China’s GDP in 2020 expanded by 2.3 percent, above the IMF forecast of 1.9 percent.


国际货币基金组织今年1月曾预测,中国经济将在2021年增长8.1%。与美国、欧盟、俄罗斯相比,仍处于高位。尤其是当他们发现中国2020年的GDP增长了2.3%,这比此前国际货币基金组织1.9%的预期还高。


 

However, it is always hasty to judge a country’s economic health only through changes in GDP numbers. Statistics don’t lie, but they can be misleading, especially if one does not know how to read behind the numbers.


然而,仅仅通过GDP数值的变化来判断一个国家的经济健康程度是很草率的。统计数字不会说谎,但它们可能会产生误导,尤其是当人们不知道如何科学解读数字背后的意义之时。

 

For example, behind China’s 2020 GDP numbers is a more complicated picture of the country's economy.


例如,在中国2020年GDP数据背后是该国经济更为复杂的图景。



 

防疫物资和“宅经济”拉动出口增长


Exports, one of its major drivers, grew by 4% in 2020. But the General Administration of Customs of China acknowledged that export growth was driven by epidemic control supplies and products people consumed during lockdown.


作为主要经济推动力之一,出口在2020年增长了4%。但是中国海关总署也承认,这一增速主要是由防疫物资和疫情期间的“宅经济”产品所拉动。


 

In 2020, textiles, including masks, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, grew by a combined 31%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to China’s total export growth. With vaccines being rolled out globally in 2021 to slow the spread of the virus, export earnings from COVID-19 supplies and products are unlikely to grow as rapidly.


包括口罩在内的纺织品、医疗器械和药品,在2020年出口额合计增长了31%,拉动整体出口增长1.9个百分点。但是,随着新冠肺炎疫苗2021年在全球推广使用以减缓病毒传播,防疫物资的出口收益不一定能继续高速增长。

 

People also looked for ways of living their best lockdown lives and often ended up with consumer electronics. As a result, exports of laptops, tablets and home appliances grew by a combined 22.1% last year, boosting total exports up by 1.3 percentage points in 2020.


在居家隔离期间,人们也在寻求更舒适的生活方式,很多人都会购买电子类产品。因此,笔记本电脑、平板电脑和家用电器的出口去年合计增长了22.1%,拉动2020年整体出口增长1.3个百分点。


 

In the long run, the manufacturing of consumer electronics is highly dependent on the import of high-tech materials and the global industry chain. However, the continued deterioration of the global economic environment has led to a contraction in global exports, which will deal a fatal blow to some Chinese enterprises that rely heavily on imported raw materials.


从长远来看,这些消费类电子产品的生产非常有赖于高科技材料的进口和全球产业链的支持。但是,全球经济环境的持续恶化,已经导致全球出口萎缩。这将对一些严重依赖进口原材料的中国企业造成致命的打击。

 


    
不要被下半年的GDP数值迷惑


In the meantime, one also needs to look out for fluctuations in China’s GDP numbers in 2021.


同时,人们还需注意2021年,中国GDP数据的波动。


 

Since China’s GDP in the first half of 2020 was much lower than that of the second half, when comparing China’s GDP in 2021 year-on-year, it is very likely that the growth rate will be significantly higher in the first half of 2021 and much less so in the second half.


由于2020年上半年中国的GDP总量远低于下半年,当2021年中国GDP总量与去年同期相比时,很可能出现GDP增速在今年上半年显著提高,而在下半年大幅缩减的情况。


 

There is a risk that people might be fooled by the numbers in 2021 and become unrealistically pessimistic or optimistic about China’s economy.


人们要小心,不被2021年的数字所“愚弄”,对中国的经济变得过于悲观或乐观。

 

In fact, based on a survey by the People’s Bank of China (central bank), China’s Business Climate Index reached 55.8% in Q4 2020, a slight increase from the previous year. China’s Consumer Confidence Index also increased to 124 in last November, from 112.6 in June 2020.


实际上,中国央行的一项调查数据显示,2020年第四季度,中国的企业家经营景气指数达55.8%,比2019年同期略有提高。中国消费者信心指数也从2020年6月的112.6增至11月的124。

 

Confidence in China’s economy should be based on knowledge of the country’s long-term development and comprehensive national strength, rather than fluctuations in GDP numbers over a short period of time or unrealistic optimism regarding growth. In the long run, the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic health will likely remain.


对于中国经济的信心,应该建立在这个国家的长期发展和综合国力的基础上,而不是短期内的GDP数据波动或者对GDP增长的盲目乐观。从长远来看,中国经济长期向好的基本面应该会保持不变。



Production Manager  /  Dai Yu

Script  /  Han Mo, Wu Ao

Graphic & Motion Designer  /  Liu Yuetong & Guo Hongcen

Editor  /  Zhao Yuanzhen

Senior Producer  /  Bi Jianlu






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