顶刊编译 | 《美国政治科学杂志》2024年4月第68卷第2期
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期 刊 介 绍
American Journal of Political Science（AJPS, 《美国政治科学杂志》）致力于在公民身份、治理和政治的知识和理解方面取得重大进展，并致力于提高政治学研究的公共价值。作为美国中西部政治学协会的官方期刊，AJPS 发表政治学所有主要领域的研究，包括美国政治、公共政策、国际关系、比较政治、政治方法和政治理论。该刊寻求对政治学任何子领域的重要理论问题、经验问题或方法论的学术知识有突出贡献的稿件。该刊在《科睿唯安 2022 年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2022）中 JIF=4.2，在 187 种政治科学类（PoliticalScience-SSCI）期刊中排名第 20（Q1）。
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期刊目录
1.Why Compete for Firms? Electoral Effects of Corporate Headquarters Relocation
为什么要争夺企业？公司总部迁移的选举效应
2.The Electoral Consequences of Household Indebtedness under Austerity
财政紧缩政策下家庭负债对选举产生的影响
3.No Entry in a Pandemic: Public Support for Border Closures
疫情时禁止入境：公众对关闭边境的支持
4.Politicians’Private Sector Jobs and Parliamentary Behavior
政治家的私营部门工作与议会行为
5.Campaign Messages, Polling, and Elections: Theory and Experimental Evidence
竞选信息、民意调查和选举：理论与实证证据
6.Banklash: How Media Coverage of Bank Scandals Moves Mass Preferences on Financial Regulation
抵制银行：媒体对银行丑闻的报道如何改变大众对金融监管的偏好
7.Centripetal Representation
向心型代议制
8.Rebel Capacity, Intelligenc Gathering, and Combat Tactics
叛军能力、情报收集和作战战术
9.Sexism and the Far-Right Vote: The Individual Dynamics of Gender Backlash
性别歧视与极右翼选票：反对性别歧视的个体动态变化
10.Can Close Election Regression Discontinuity Designs Identify Effects of Winning Politician Characteristics?
对候选人得票率接近的选举的不连续回归设计能否证明获胜政治家的特质对其胜选产生的影响？
11.Rebel Capacity, Intelligence Gathering, and Combat Tactics Discrimination Inclusion, and Anti-System Attitudes among Muslims in Germany
歧视、包容和德国穆斯林的反体系态度
12.Friendly Lobbying under Time Pressure
时间压力下的友好游说
13.The Practice and Legitimacy of Border Control
边境管制的实践与合法性
14.How Politicians Learn from Citizens’Feedback: The Case of Gender on Twitter
政治家如何从公民的反馈中学习：推特上的性别案例
15.The Political Consequences of Depression: How Conspiracy Beliefs, Participatory Inclinations, and Depression Affect Support for Political Violence
抑郁症的政治后果：阴谋信念、参与倾向与抑郁症如何影响对政治暴力的支持
16.Global Economic Integration and Nativist Politics in Emerging Economies
全球经济一体化与新兴经济体的本土主义政治
17.Can Online Civic Education Induce Democratic Citizenship? Experimental Evidence from a New Democracy
在线公民教育能催生民主公民身份吗？来自一个新的民主国家的实验证据
18.Light or Fire? Frederick Douglass and the Orator's Dilemma
光还是火？弗雷德里克·道格拉斯和演说家的困境
19.Money Can’t Buy You Love: Partisan Responses to Vote-Buying Offers
金钱买不到爱：党派对贿选提议的回应
20.Border Anxiety in International Discourse
国际话语中的边界焦虑
21.Demolition and Discontent: Governing the Authoritarian City
拆除与不满：治理威权城市
22.Career Concerns and the Dynamics of Electoral Accountability
职业忧虑和选举问责制的动态
23.Military Cultureand Institutional Trust: Evidence from Conscription Reforms in Europe
军事文化与机构信任：来自欧洲征兵制改革的证据
24.Keyword-Assisted Topic Models
关键词辅助主题模型
25.Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Postwar
Czechoslovakia
强迫移民、滞留的少数民族和新社会：来自战后捷克斯洛伐克的证据
26.Babel Fish Democracy? Prospects for Addressing Democratic Language Barriers through Machine Translation and Interpretation
“巴别鱼”民主？通过机器翻译和口译解决民主政治语言障碍的前景
27.Designing Deliberation for Decentralized Decisions
为分散式决策设计商议方式
28.How Patronage Delivers: Political Appointments, Bureaucratic Accountability, and Service Delivery in Brazil
裙带关系的作用：巴西的政治任命、官僚问责和服务提供
29.Divided Government, Strategic Substitution, and Presidential Unilateralism
分立政府、战略替代和总统单边主义
30.Does Relative Deprivation Condition the Effects of Social Protection Programs on Political Support? Experimental Evidence from Pakistan
相对贫困是否制约了社会保障项目对政治支持的影响？来自巴基斯坦的实验证据
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摘要译文
01 为什么要争夺企业？公司总部迁移的选举效应
【题目】
Why Compete for Firms? Electoral Effects of Corporate Headquarters Relocation
【作者】
Joonseok Yang
【摘要】
为什么美国的地方和州政府会竞相吸引和留住辖区内的企业，甚至提供大量的激励措施，即使这些措施能会危及用于其他需求的公共开支？本研究表明，答案可能在于公司总部迁移产生的选举效应。本研究利用 1995 年至 2015 年新闻媒体报道的州际总部搬迁案例的原始数据集，发现州际企业选址决策会影响州长选举结果。然而，实证分析提供的证据表明，选民在考虑总部迁入和总部迁出案例时经历了不同的归因过程：总部迁出会使共和党候选人获得更多支持，而总部迁入则会增加对现任政党的支持。补充分析表明，影响选举结果的是总部迁入的感知效应和象征价值，而非总部迁入对当地直接产生的经济效应。这些研究结果为研究选举问责制和企业与政府关系的政治经济学提供了启示。
Why do local and state governments in the United States compete to attract and retain corporations in their jurisdictions even by offering generous incentives, which can jeopardize public spending on other needs? This research shows that the answer can lie in the electoral effects of headquarters (HQ) relocation. Using an original data set of interstate HQ relocation cases covered in the news media from 1995 to 2015, this research finds that interstate business location decisions affect gubernatorial election outcomes. However, empirical analyses provide evidence that voters use different attribution processes when considering HQ relocation-in versus relocation-out cases: HQ relocation-out results in greater support for Republican candidates, whereas HQ relocation-in increases support for the incumbent party. Supplementary analyses suggest that the perceptual effects and symbolic value of HQ relocation, rather than its immediate local economic effects, drive electoral outcomes. The findings have implications for electoral accountability and the political economy of business-government relationships.
02 财政紧缩政策下家庭负债对选举产生的影响
【题目】
The Electoral Consequences of Household Indebtedness under Austerity
【作者】
Andreas Wiedemann
【摘要】
在财政紧缩的背景下，家庭债务增加会带来哪些政治后果？我认为，削减福利会使社会义务私有化，因为选民会通过借钱来应对随之而来的财政紧缩带来的资金不足问题，债务将个人再商品化，并通过激起政治被忽视感、经济脆弱性和强烈的情绪反应，将他们的选票从现任政党转移到反对党和反建制党派。我利用英国的一项大规模福利改革政策——“通用信贷”（UC）推广过程中的时空变化来验证这一论点。利用无担保债务的细粒度行政数据，我证明了财政紧缩导致负债增加，从而降低了英国民众对执政党保守党支持率，而工党和英国独立党（UKIP）的支持率增加了。然后，我利用个人层面的调查数据探讨了债务与政治行为之间的关联机制。结果表明，负债率上升会增加福利缩减的政治成本，并引发了的政治裂痕。
What are the political consequences of rising household debt in the context of fiscal austerity? I argue that cuts in welfare benefits privatize social obligations as voters address ensuing financial shortfalls by borrowing money. Debt re-commodifies individuals and shifts their electoral support from incumbents to opposition and anti-establishment parties by provoking feelings of political neglect, economic vulnerability, and strong emotional responses. I examine this argument by leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the rollout of Universal Credit (UC), a large-scale welfare reform in the United Kingdom. Using fine-grained administrative data on unsecured debt, I demonstrate that fiscal austerity generated an increase in indebtedness, which lowered support for the incumbent Conservatives and strengthened support for Labour and the UK Independence Party (UKIP). I then use individual-level survey data to explore the mechanisms that link debt and political behavior. The results suggest that rising indebtedness increases the political costs of welfare retrenchment and creates new political cleavages.
03 疫情时禁止入境：公众对关闭边境的支持
【题目】
No Entry in a Pandemic: Public Support for Border Closures
【作者】
Yoshiharu Kobayashi, Menevis Cilizoglu, Tobias Heinrich, William Christiansen
【摘要】
要有效应对传染病疫情并迅速可靠地发现疫情，就必须尽早成功协调各国的边境政策。由于传染病对社会公众构成巨大威胁，研究人员一致认为，更好地了解国内政治对研究这一问题至关重要。本文研究了这一问题的一个关键部分：公众对关闭边境的要求。我们在英国和美国开展的实验表明，流行病威胁的扩大会略微增加公众对关闭边境的支持，但世界卫生组织（WHO）反对关闭边境的指南及关于遵从该指南的国际法律义务会大大削弱公众对关闭边境的支持。然而，在 COVID-19 大流行期间，许多国家无视世界卫生组织的建议并关闭了边境。对媒体关注的研究表明，人们对世卫组织指南缺乏了解是影响政府关闭边境的一个重要原因。我们的研究为设计有效的全球卫生治理提供了启示。
Effective response to and rapid and reliable detection of infectious disease outbreaks require successful coordination of countries’ border policies early on. As threats from diseases are highly salient to the public, researchers agree that a better understanding of domestic politics is crucial. This article investigates a key piece of this question: public demands for border closures. Our experiments in the United Kingdom and the United States show that a greater pandemic threat mildly increases support for border closures, but the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidance against border closures and reminders about international legal obligations to follow the guidance substantially weaken support for border closures. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries flouted WHO’s recommendations and restricted their borders. Examining media attention suggests people’s lack of knowledge of the WHO guidance as a crucial reason for those border closures. Our study produces insights into the design of effective global health governance.
04 政治家的私营部门工作与其在议会的行为
【题目】
Politicians’ Private Sector Jobs and Parliamentary Behavior
【作者】
Simon Weschle
【摘要】
大约 80%的民主国家允许立法者在任职期间受雇于私营部门。然而，我们对这种做法的后果知之甚少。在本文中，我利用英国下议院所有议员的最新面板数据和一项双重差分法设计，研究了议员在议会外的收入如何改变其议会行为。执政党保守党的绝大多数议员都有院外收入，当他们在私营部门工作时，他们会改变在议会上是否投票的选择以及投票的方式，并将书面议会质询的数量增加60%。对于后者，我展示了一种有针对性的模型，以表明这种增长与他们在私营部门的工作有关。文章由此表明，政治中最常见但研究最少的一种金钱形式——在私营部门工作会影响政治家的议会行为。
About 80% of democracies allow legislators to be employed in the private sector while they hold office. However, we know little about the consequences of this practice. In this article, I use newly assembled panel data of all members of the United Kingdom House of Commons and a difference-in-differences design to investigate how legislators change their parliamentary behavior when they have outside earnings. When holding a private sector job, members of the governing Conservative Party, who earn the vast majority of outside income, change whether and how they vote on the floor of parliament as well as increase the number of written parliamentary questions they ask by 60%. For the latter, I demonstrate a targeted pattern suggesting that the increase relates to their employment. The article thus shows that one of the most common, and yet least studied, forms of money in politics affects politicians’ parliamentary behavior.
05 竞选信息、民意调查和选举：理论与实证证据
【题目】
Campaign Messages, Polling, and Elections: Theory and Experimental Evidence
【作者】
Nick Feltovich, Francesco Giovannoni
【摘要】
政治家以往的表现和竞选信息如何相互作用并影响其对选民的福利承诺？我们从理论和实验两方面分析了这一问题。在我们用于实验的理论模型中，政治家选择将经济资源分配给选民——将剩余部分留给自己——然后在挑战者的竞争中寻求连任。现任者和挑战者都具备有关自身素质的私人信息，而这些信息决定了其拥有的经济资源的水平。我们通过改变候选人是否可以发送竞选信息以及候选人素质差异的水平，观察到较高的候选人素质差异和允许竞选人发送竞选信息都会使公民受益，因为这样可以方便选民选择素质较高的官员并对其问责。此外，当现任官员表现不佳或候选人间素质差异较大时，挑战者的负面竞选言论（批评现任官员）会增加，而现任官员的正面竞选言论（强调自身优势）会减少。
How do politicians’ track records and campaign messaging interact and affect voters’ welfare? We analyze this question theoretically and experimentally. In the theoretical model, which we implement in the experiment, politicians choose how much of an economy’s resources to allocate to the citizenry——keeping the remainder for themselves——and then face reelection against a challenger. Both incumbents and challengers have private information about their own quality that determines the economy’s level of resources. We vary whether candidates can send campaign messages and the level of variability in candidates’ quality. We observe that both higher-quality variability and allowing campaigning benefit citizens by allowing them to better select and hold accountable higher-quality officials. Also, when incumbents have performed poorly or when quality variability is high, challengers’ negative campaigning (criticizing the incumbent) increases and incumbents’ positive campaigning (emphasizing their own strengths) decreases.
06 抵制银行：媒体对银行丑闻的报道如何改变大众对金融监管的偏好
【题目】
Banklash: How Media Coverage of Bank Scandals Moves Mass Preferences on Financial Regulation
【作者】
Pepper D. Culpepper, Jae-Hee Jung, Taeku Lee
【摘要】
金融监管往往是在丑闻和危机发生后采取的。然而，政治学界对企业发生丑闻的政治影响却知之甚少。我们通过研究银行丑闻的新闻报道是否会改变选民对金融监管的偏好填补了这一空白。通过研究媒体影响和舆论方面的文献，我们认为对银行丑闻的新闻报道应该会增强选民对金融监管的偏好。我们利用六个国家的数据，通过嵌入式实验的原始全国代表性面板调查（总人数为27,673）来验证我们的假设。我们的汇总分析和国别分析在很大程度上验证了我们的假设，即接触有关丑闻的新闻报道会增强选民对于加强金融监管的偏好。我们在另一波调查中使用了与原始分析不同的丑闻信息，并重现了这一结果。这些结果有助于研究媒体对舆论的影响、丑闻的政治意义以及推动关于金融监管的政治经济学研究。
Financial regulation is often adopted in the wake of scandals and crises. Yet political science has little to say about the political effects of corporate scandals. We break that silence, asking whether exposure to news coverage of bank scandals changes the preferences of voters for financial regulation. Drawing from the literatures on media influence and public opinion, we argue that news coverage of bank scandals should increase voters’ appetite for regulation. We test our hypothesis with data from six countries, using original nationally representative panel surveys with embedded experiments (total N =27,673). Our pooled and country-specific analyses largely support our expectation that exposure to news coverage of scandals increases regulatory preferences. We reproduce this finding in a separate survey wave, using different scandals than in our original analysis. These results contribute to studies on media influence on public opinion, the political significance of scandals, and the political economy of regulation.
07 向心型代议制
【题目】
Centripetal Representation
【作者】
Daniel Hutton Ferris
【摘要】
本文就代议制如何才能最好地促进民主合法性提出了一个普遍性理论——该理论承认不同类型的代议制之间进行网络化响应的潜在好处，但对网络化响应引发的威胁——碎片化和民主简单化价值保持警惕。协商民主和建构主义的代表制理论家倾向于认为越多元化的代表制越民主。然而，我将论证，碎片化可能会使人们对精英阶层的反应产生偏差，而民主简单化可以帮助普通民众参与政治、理解并影响他们的代表，从而避免僵局、勾结和当权者的胁迫。当代表制度的结构是“向心的”：权力和影响力通过网络化的响应过程，从具有广泛包容性的边缘向内移动到简单民主的核心时，代议制最有可能体现多元化和异质性的优势，同时避免民主碎片化的威胁。
This article develops a general theory about how representative systems might best promote democratic legitimacy—one that recognizes the potential benefits of networked responsiveness between diverse kinds of representative but is alert to the threat of fragmentation and the value of democratic simplicity. Deliberative democratic and constructivist theorists of representation tend to agree that more pluralistic systems of representation are more democratic. I will argue, however, that fragmentation can bias responsiveness toward elites and that democratic simplifications can help ordinary people engage with, understand, and influence their representatives, pushing back against gridlock, collusion, and capture by the powerful. Systems of representation are most likely to capture the benefits of pluralism and heterogeneity while avoiding fragmentation when their structure is “centripetal”: with power and influence moving inwards, via processes of networked responsiveness, from broadly inclusive peripheries to democratically simple cores.
08 叛军能力、情报收集和作战战术
【题目】
Rebel Capacity, Intelligence Gathering, and Combat Tactics
【作者】
Konstantin Sonin, Austin L. Wright
【摘要】
经典和现代叛军战争理论都强调资源禀赋的作用。我们证明，这些禀赋使情报搜集成为可能，而情报搜集在决定叛军如何对装备更精良的政府军发动复合式进攻的具体细节方面起着至关重要的作用。我们利用有关阿富汗叛军袭击、叛军领导的间谍网络和反叛乱行动的详细数据验证了该理论模型。利用鸦片适宜性的准随机变化，我们发现叛军能力的提高与以下方面有关：（1）叛军行动增加；（2）叛军通过技术创新、增加战术复杂性和集群式攻击以改进战术；（3）提高打击安全部队的效率，尤其是打击难度较大的目标。这些结果表明，资金获取和情报收集对叛军作战的方式和地点产生了重要影响。
Classic and modern theories of rebel warfare emphasize the role of resource endowments. We demonstrate that intelligence gathering, made possible by these endowments, plays a critical role in determining specifics of how rebels launch complex attacks against better equipped government forces. We test implications of a theoretical model using highly detailed data about Afghan rebel attacks, insurgent-led spy networks, and counterinsurgent operations. Leveraging quasi-random variation in opium suitability, we find that improved rebel capacity is associated with (1) increased insurgent operations; (2) improved battlefield tactics through technological innovation, increased complexity, and attack clustering; and (3) increased effectiveness against security forces, especially harder targets. These results show that access to capital, coupled with intelligence gathering, meaningfully impacts how and where rebels fight.
09 性别歧视与极右翼选票：反对性别歧视的个体动态变化
【题目】
Sexism and the Far-Right Vote: The Individual Dynamics of Gender Backlash
【作者】
Eva Anduiza, Guillem Rico
【摘要】
本文认为，性别歧视作为一种倾向和一种不断变化的态度，在极右翼选举崛起的过程中发挥着根本性的作用。利用西班牙的面板数据，我们发现现代性别歧视的确是影响选民对极右翼政党Vox态度的重要预测因素之一。结果还显示，由某一个体在各个时段遭受的不同程度的性别歧视一同构成的变化曲线会影响其对极右翼政党的投票选择。（对性别歧视）态度的反对变化，即在女权主义发展的背景下性别歧视的增加，是激进近期右翼崛起的重要原因。我们的研究结果表明，对性别歧视问题的反对并不是一种固化的态度，它很容易在短期内发生变化，并引发重要的政治后果。这凸显了在极右翼投票中对性别歧视问题的反对态度在个体中动态变化的重要性。
This article contends that sexism plays a fundamental role in the electoral rise of the far right, both as a predisposition and as a changing attitude. Using panel data from Spain, we show that modern sexism is indeed among the most important attitudinal predictors of voting for the far-right party Vox. The results also show that internal individual changes in levels of modern sexism impact far-right voting. Backlash attitudinal change, defined as increases in sexism occurring in a context of feminist momentum, contributed significantly to the recent emergence of the radical right. Our findings indicate that sexism is not a crystalized attitude but rather susceptible to showing short-term changes with important political consequences. This highlights the importance of understudied context-dependent individual dynamics of gender backlash in far-right voting.
10 对候选人得票率接近的选举的不连续回归设计能否证明获胜政治家的特质对其胜选产生的影响？
【题目】
Can Close Election Regression Discontinuity Designs Identify Effects of Winning Politician Characteristics?
【作者】
John Marshall
【摘要】
基于选举结果接近中政治家特征的回归非连续性（PCRD）设计被广泛用于确认当选政治家特征对下游结果的影响。与标准回归不连续设计不同的是，该设计是由可能影响政治家胜选率的特征定义的。我通过对赢得差额选举的政治家设定条件，证明了PCRD估计量可以识别特定相关特征的影响以及所有补偿性差异——确保选举结果在相关特征不同的候选人之间保持接近的候选人层面特征。要避免这种渐近偏差，通常需要假设相关特征不影响候选人的得票率，或者没有补偿性差异影响选举结果。由于投票行为理论表明，这两种强假设通常都不成立，因此我进一步分析了解释连续性检验的意义，并考虑了对协变量的调整、约束和重新定性处理是否能够以及如何减轻困扰 PCRD 设计的后处理偏差。
Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs leveraging close elections are widely used to isolate effects of an elected politician characteristic on downstream outcomes. Unlike standard regression discontinuity designs, treatment is defined by a predetermined characteristic that could affect a politician’s victory margin. I prove that, by conditioning on politicians who win close elections, PCRD estimators identify the effect of the specific characteristic of interest and all compensating differentials—candidate-level characteristics that ensure elections remain close between candidates who differ in the characteristic of interest. Avoiding this asymptotic bias generally requires assuming either that the characteristic of interest does not affect candidate vote shares or that no compensating differential affects the outcome. Because theories of voting behavior suggest that neither strong assumption usually holds, I further analyze the implications for interpreting continuity tests and consider if and how covariate adjustment, bounding, and recharacterizing treatment can mitigate the posttreatment bias afflicting PCRD designs.
11 歧视、包容和德国穆斯林的反体系态度
【题目】
Discrimination, Inclusion, and Anti-System Attitudes among Muslims in Germany
【作者】
Sharan Grewal, Shadi Hamid
【摘要】
欧洲和北美的穆斯林面临着很强的歧视和敌意。这种偏见对穆斯林政治态度的影响尚不清楚。通过对德国1330名穆斯林的调查，我们发现，亲身遭遇过歧视的穆斯林表现出更强烈的反体系倾向：更支持暴力，更支持伊斯兰主义，而不太支持民主和世俗主义。我们还发现，这些模式集中在那些认为自己是在“独自受苦”而其他穆斯林并没有遭受过类似敌意的群体中。最后，通过启动实验，我们发现有因果证据表明，德国总理安格拉·默克尔对穆斯林的包容性言论和政策可能有助于缓解这些情况，减少其对歧视的感知，进而产生支持体系的情绪。
Muslims in Europe and North America face high rates of discrimination and hostility. Less clear are the consequences of this prejudice on Muslims’ political attitudes. Leveraging a survey of 1,330 Muslims in Germany, we show that Muslims who have personally experienced discrimination exhibit higher anti-system tendencies: more supportive of violence, more supportive of Islamism, and less supportive of democracy and secularism. We also find that these patterns are concentrated among Muslims who believe they “suffer alone,” not believing other Muslims experience similar hostility. Finally, through a priming experiment, we find causal evidence that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s inclusive rhetoric and policies toward Muslims may help mitigate these dynamics, reducing perceptions of discrimination and in turn producing pro-system sentiments.
12 时间压力下的友好游说
【题目】
Friendly Lobbying under Time Pressure
【作者】
Emiel Awad, Clement Minaudier
【摘要】
游说者经常把与他们立场一致而非立场相左的立法者作为游说目标。游说对象的选择既影响立法者能够获得哪些信息，也会影响特殊利益集团对政策的影响力。然而尚不清楚的是，与他们保持一致的立法者在什么情况下会成为游说的目标。我们研究了快速制定政策的压力会如何影响游说对象的战略性选择。我们得出了会对选择目标盟友产生影响的条件：延迟政策的成本以及立法者对游说者的偏好分布。研究表明，与中介立法者的联合对政策制定的持续时间和政策质量具有重要影响。与直觉相反的是，时间压力的增加会延长政策制定的持续时间，而更长的持续时间并不总是会带来更明智的政策。
Lobbyists often target legislators who are aligned with them rather than opponents. The choice of whom to lobby affects both what information becomes available to legislators and how much influence special interest groups exert on policies. However, the conditions under which aligned legislators are targeted are not well understood. We investigate how the pressure to conclude policies quickly affects the strategic decision of whom to lobby. We derive conditions on the cost of delaying policies and on the distribution of legislators’ preferences for lobbyists to prefer targeting allies. We show that the use of allied intermediaries has important implications for the duration of policymaking and the quality of policies. Counterintuitively, an increase in time pressure can increase the duration of policymaking and a longer duration does not always lead to better informed policies.
13 边境管制的实践与合法性
【题目】
The Practice and Legitimacy of Border Control
【作者】
Hallvard Sandven
【摘要】
本文对一种被广泛接受但很少得到辩护的观点提出质疑，即国家在不侵犯潜在移民人权的情况下才对能对其行使合法权力。我为这一观点重新构建了一个强有力的论据，该论据源于国家对移民的权力有限的主张。根据最近的实证研究，我展示了这一论点如何不适用于一系列富裕民主国家的边境制度。这些制度的特点是通过协调的和域外的做法，破坏了将其维持在最低合法性标准的情形。通过参与这种做法，这些国家对潜在移民拥有巨大的权力。我认为，这种力量使潜在的移民面临新的风险，这反过来又引发了对满足更高的合法化标准的要求。
This article interrogates the widely held, but rarely defended, view that states wield legitimate power over potential immigrants when and because they refrain from violating their human rights. I reconstruct a strong argument for this view, which turns on a claim about the limited power states claim over migrants. Drawing on recent empirical work, I show how this argument is inapplicable to the border regimes of a set of wealthy democracies. These regimes are characterized by a practice that is coordinated and extraterritorial in a way that undercuts the case for holding them to a minimal legitimacy standard. By participating in this practice, these states wield significant power over potential immigrants. I argue that this power exposes potential immigrants to novel risk, which in turn triggers a demand for the satisfaction of a higher standard of legitimation.
14 政治家如何从公民的反馈中学习：推特上的性别案例
【题目】
How Politicians Learn from Citizens’ Feedback: The Case of Gender on Twitter
【作者】
Nikolas Schöll, Aina Gallego, Gaël Le Mens
【摘要】
本文研究了政治家如何对社交媒体上公民的反馈做出回应。我们使用强化学习框架来模拟政治家如何通过增加对广为接受的问题的关注来回应公民的积极反馈，并允许反馈根据政治家的性别而变化。为了测试该模型，我们收集了西班牙国会议员在 3 年内发布的 150 万条推文，使用深度学习算法（BERT）识别性别问题的推文，并使用转发和点赞数来衡量反馈。我们发现，公民对女性政治家撰写的有关性别问题的推文提供了更积极的反馈，这有助于她们在性别问题上的专业化。对机制的分析表明，女性政治家收到更积极的反馈是因为公民对待她们的方式不同。最后，我们讨论了这对代表性、误解和极化的影响。
This article studies how politicians react to feedback from citizens on social media. We use a reinforcement learning framework to model how politicians respond to citizens’ positive feedback by increasing attention to better received issues and allow feedback to vary depending on politicians’ gender. To test the model, we collect 1.5 million tweets published by Spanish MPs over 3 years, identify gender-issue tweets using a deep-learning algorithm (BERT) and measure feedback using retweets and likes. We find that citizens provide more positive feedback to female politicians for writing about gender, and that this contributes to their specialization in gender issues. The analysis of mechanisms suggests that female politicians receive more positive feedback because they are treated differently by citizens. To conclude, we discuss implications for representation, misperceptions, and polarization.
15 抑郁症的政治后果：阴谋信念、参与倾向与抑郁症如何影响对政治暴力的支持
【题目】
The Political Consequences of Depression: How Conspiracy Beliefs, Participatory Inclinations, and Depression Affect Support for Political Violence
【作者】
Matthew A. Baum, James N. Druckman, Matthew D. Simonson, Jennifer Lin, Roy H. Perlis
【摘要】
抑郁症会通过增强认知偏见、改变对控制的感知来影响个人的态度。我们调查抑郁症状与美国人对国内极端暴力的态度之间的关系。我们提出了一种理论，表明抑郁症和支持政治暴力之间的联系取决于阴谋信念、参与倾向及二者的组合。我们使用2020年11月和2021年1月的两期全国调查面板数据来测试我们的理论。我们发现，在那些持有阴谋信念和/或有参与倾向的人群中，抑郁症与支持选举暴力、支持1月6日国会山骚乱呈正相关。男性的参与倾向尤其强烈。我们的研究结果揭示了美国社会的两个令人担忧特征——糟糕的心理健康状态和阴谋信念——的交集是如何与另一个特征——对政治暴力的支持密切相关的。研究结果还清楚地表明，为了解决抑郁症的干预措施可能会产生重大的政治后果。
Depression can affect individuals’ attitudes by enhancing cognitive biases and altering perceptions of control. We investigate the relationship between depressive symptoms and Americans’ attitudes regarding domestic extremist violence. We develop a theory that suggests the association between depression and support for political violence depends on conspiracy beliefs, participatory inclinations, and their combination. We test our theory using a two-wave national survey panel from November 2020 and January 2021. We find that among those who hold conspiracy beliefs and/or have participatory inclinations, depression is positively associated with support for election violence and the January 6 Capitol riots. The participatory inclination dynamic is particularly strong for men. Our findings reveal how the intersection of two concerning features of American society—poor mental health and conspiratorial beliefs—strongly relate to another feature: support for political violence. The results also make clear that interventions aimed at addressing depression can potentially have substantial political consequences.
16 全球经济一体化与新兴经济体的本土主义政治
【题目】
Global Economic Integration and Nativist Politics in Emerging Economies
【作者】
Benjamin Helms
【摘要】
本土主义政治运动正在全球范围内兴起。在发达民主国家，反移民政治的兴起在一定程度上是对经济全球化的抵制。在本土主义者主要针对国内移民的新兴经济体中，很少有关于贸易自由化是否会助长反移民情绪的调查，这或许是因为在该背景下，贸易有利于工人。我认为，在新兴经济体中，全球经济一体化引发了本土主义者的强烈反对，尽管它并没有导致工人失业。我强调了一种替代性机制：劳动力的地理流动。工人为了获得在地理上不平衡的全球经济机会，策略性地进行迁移。这种由自由化导致的流动性与本地人和移民间的分裂相互作用，引发了本土主义者的强烈反对。我探讨了印度纺织行业的这些动态，该行业在2005年全球贸易自由化后经历了正向的冲击。通过双重差分法，我发现受影响的地区经历了内部移民的增加与本土主义的发展，表现为反移民骚乱和对本土主义政党的支持。即使自由化对经济的影响是积极的，它也会助长本土主义。
Nativist political movements are globally ascendant. In advanced democracies, rising anti-immigrant politics is in part a backlash against economic globalization. In emerging economies, where nativists primarily target internal migrants, there is little investigation of whether trade liberalization fuels antimigrant sentiment, perhaps because trade benefits workers in these contexts. I argue that global economic integration causes nativist backlash in emerging economies even though it does not dislocate workers. I highlight an alternative mechanism: geographic labor mobility. Workers strategically migrate to access geographically uneven global economic opportunity. This liberalization-induced mobility interacts with native-migrant cleavages to generate nativist backlash. I explore these dynamics in the Indian textile sector, which experienced a positive shock following global trade liberalization in 2005. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, I find that exposed localities experienced increased internal migration and nativism, manifesting in antimigrant rioting and nativist party support. Liberalization can fuel nativism even when its economic impacts are positive.
17 在线公民教育能催生民主公民身份吗？来自一个新的民主国家的实验证据
【题目】
Can Online Civic Education Induce Democratic Citizen ship?Experimental Evidence froma New Democracy
【作者】
Steven E. Finkel, Anja Neundorf, Ericka Rascón Ramírez
【摘要】
如何在新的民主国家中引入民主价值观和行为？我们对突尼斯进行案例研究，设计并测试了三种独创的公民教育干预措施来回答这个问题。参与者是通过Facebook和Instagram招募的，他们被随机分配到三个实验组之一或对照组。有两种从前景理论中衍生出的处理方法，即分别强调民主制度带来的收益或专制制度带来的损失。第三种处理方法源于自我效能理论，即提供有关参与即将到来的2019年选举的实用信息。研究结果表明，在线公民教育对民主公民身份有相当大的影响，包括显著减少对专制的怀旧情绪、增加有意的政治行为。我们进一步发现三种处理方法之间的差异，收益与损失的处理方法总体上比自我效能的处理方法具有更稳定一致的影响，尽管后者对政治效能和政治登记影响显著。
How can democratic values and behavior be induced in new democracies? We designed and tested three original civic education interventions to answer this question, using Tunisia as a case study. Participants were recruited through Facebook and Instagram, where they were randomly assigned to either one of three treatment groups or a placebo. Two treatments were derived from prospect theory, emphasizing the gains of a democratic system or the losses of an autocratic system. A third treatment, derived from self-efficacy theory, provided practical information regarding participation in the upcoming 2019 elections. Our findings suggest that online civic education has a considerable effect on democratic citizenship, including a significant reduction in authoritarian nostalgia and increasing intended political behavior. We further find differences between the three treatments, with the loss and gain treatments having overall more consistent impact than self-efficacy, though the latter frame has notable effects on political efficacy and registration.
18 光还是火？弗雷德里克·道格拉斯和演说家的困境
【题目】
Light or Fire? Frederick Douglass and the Orator’s Dilemma
【作者】
Michael C. Hawley
【摘要】
大多数关于政治修辞的学术研究都将其视为一种改变听众思想的活动。然而，我们也看到了许多政治演讲的对象是那些已经同意演讲者的人，以激励他们按照已做出的判断行事。这种演讲通常被视为迎合，或者是导致两极分化的“红肉”煽动（译者注：“红肉”指旨在吸引政党基础或引起选民强烈情绪反应的声明或政策）。我通过引用弗雷德里克·道格拉斯的话对这种演讲作了更完整的说明，我称之为“劝告性的言辞”。道格拉斯借鉴了黑人基督教布道的预言传统，在劝说达不能达到其目的时提出了另一种选择。道格拉斯帮助我们思考了这一点，即这种演讲引发了一系列规范性的困难，这些困难不同于说服的言辞带来的困难。他提供了一个框架，以理解什么时候放弃说服转而进行劝告是何是准许的、甚至是理想的。
Most scholarship on political rhetoric views it as an exercise in changing the minds of an audience. However, we see numerous examples of political speech aimed at those who already agree with the speaker, to motivate them to act on judgments they have already made. This kind of discourse is often dismissed as pandering, or the “red meat” rabble-rousing that contributes to polarization. I draw upon Frederick Douglass to render a more complete account of this speech, which I term “hortatory rhetoric.” Douglass draws upon the prophetic tradition of Black Christian preaching to develop an alternative for when persuasion has reached its limit. This kind of speech raises a set of normative difficulties that differ from those raised by the rhetoric of persuasion, which Douglass helps us to think through. He provides a framework for understanding when it might be permissible or even desirable to abandon persuasion for exhortation.
19 金钱买不到爱：党派对贿选提议的回应
【题目】
Money Can’t Buy You Love: Partisan Responses to Vote-Buying Offers
【作者】
Kenneth F. Greene
【摘要】
目前关于贿选的理论工具性地把利益看作是收入的替代物，这总是增加机器（译者注：“机器”在本文中特指“机器政治”体系，即政党中的一小群人通过严密的组织和强有力的集中领导控制政治格局，能够可靠地、甚至是机械地选出所需的选票使其成员当选；19至20世纪以来，机器政治的兴起导致了广泛的腐败和对选举过程的操纵）的效用。但是很多接受方的回应是消极的。我认为，对选择性利益的回应源于党派偏见，反对者的动机是拒绝试图收买他们选票的机器。这种新的党派回应模型有助于解释为什么机器会以许多支持者为目标，为什么许多反对者仍然不被选择性利益所说服，以及为什么贿选的选举回报往往低于预期。在墨西哥进行的联合调查实验表明，在利益不变的情况下，最初的支持者投票给机器的可能性要高出14.5个百分点，而最初的反对者投票给机器的可能性要低8.5个百分点。中介分析表明，最初的支持者对选择性利益表示感谢，并认为机器的行为是合法的，而最初的反对者则对此感到愤怒并认为机器政治是不合法的。
Current theory on vote-buying treats benefits instrumentally as income replacement that always increase utility for the machine. But many recipients react negatively. I argue that responses to selective benefits spring from partisan bias, with opponents motivated to reject a machine that attempts to buy their vote. This new partisan response model helps explain why machines target many supporters, why many opponents remain unpersuaded by selective benefits, and why the electoral return from vote-buying is often lower than assumed. Tests using conjoint survey experiments in Mexico show that initial supporters are 14.5 percentage points more likely to vote for the machine, whereas initial opponents are 8.5 percentage points less likely to vote for it, holding benefits constant. Mediation analysis reveals that initial supporters demonstrate gratitude for selective benefits and view the machine’s actions as legitimate, whereas initial opponents take offense and see machine politics as illegitimate.
20 国际话语中的边界焦虑
【题目】
Border Anxiety in International Discourse
【作者】
Beth A. Simmons, Robert Shaffer
【摘要】
在世界许多地区，国际边界已成为一个日益关注的安全问题。管理松懈的边境引发了人们对一系列外部威胁的担忧——无论是真实的还是想象的——这些威胁反过来可能会影响边境安全的政策决策。我们研究了全球的官方话语，发现随着时间的推移，边界话语变得更加频繁化、本地化、非国家中心化和负面化。然而，负面言辞与全球化的客观标准间不存在令人信服的联系，只能被部分解释为国家之间和国家内部的政治暴力，并对边境政策的强化产生影响。这就提出了一种可能性，即国际关系文献中提到的边界设防趋势不仅有物质基础，而且还受到负面情绪言论的推动，这些话语可能是出于国内目的而战略性地部署的。我们呼吁建立一个研究议程，将边界话语更集中地纳入国际政治和比较政治。
International borders have become a growing security concern in many parts of the world. Porous borders have raised concerns about a host of external threats—real and imagined—that in turn potentially inform policy decisions about border security. We examine global official discourse and show that border discourse has become more frequent, localized, non-state-centric, and negative over time. However, negative rhetoric is not convincingly linked with objective measures of globalization is only partially explained by political violence between and within states, and influences border-hardening policies. This raises the possibility that the border fortification trend noted in the international relations literature has not only a material basis but is also fueled by negative emotive rhetoric that may be deployed strategically for domestic purposes. We call for a research agenda that incorporates border discourse more centrally into international and comparative politics.
21 拆除与不满：治理威权城市
【题目】
Demolition and Discontent: Governing the Authoritarian City
【作者】
Sean T. Norton
【摘要】
大城市的存在增加了威权瓦解的概率，但相关文献几乎没有提供有关威权统治面临的挑战如何在城市空间中发展的实证性分析。我提出的理论认为，城市是复杂的社会政治空间，尤其是在缺乏民主制度的情况下，城市难以进行管理。这种复杂性使得对民众的拉拢和胁迫都变得困难，这意味着威权城市用来控制不满情绪的策略可能会直接导致不满情绪。我以莫斯科的一个以奖励政权支持者为目标的大型城市资助住房项目为案例，运用贝叶斯半参数模型，证明了即使是看似目标明确的拉拢民众的交易行为，也会导致政权在随后的市政选举中出人意料地失败。我的研究结果表明，城市的相对复杂性在反对威权统治的发展中起着重要作用。
The presence of large cities increases the probability of authoritarian breakdown, but the literature has offered little empirical insight as to how challenges to authoritarian rule develop in urban space. I develop a theory of cities as complex sociopolitical spaces that are difficult to govern, particularly in the absence of democratic institutions. This complexity makes both co-optation and coercion difficult, meaning the very tactics that authoritarian cities use to control discontent can become its proximate cause. Using a large, city-financed housing project in Moscow targeted at rewarding regime supporters, I utilize a Bayesian semi-parametric model to demonstrate that even a seemingly well-targeted co-optive exchange contributed to a surprising defeat for the regime in a subsequent municipal election. My results suggest that the relative illegibility of cities plays an important part in the development of opposition to authoritarian rule.
22 职业忧虑和选举问责制的动态
【题目】
Career Concerns and the Dynamics of Electoral Accountability
【作者】
Matias Iaryczower, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Adam Meirowitz
【摘要】
量化立法者相对政策而言对连任所赋予的价值对于理解选举问责制至关重要。我们采用一种结构性方法，利用整个选举周期中民调、政治表态和政治宣传的变化，估算出美国参议院议员对职位和政策的偏好。然后，我们将这些偏好估计值与选举有效性估计值(政策温和性和政治宣传)结合起来，来量化竞争性选举和非竞争性选举中的选举问责制。我们发现，相对于政策收益，参议员们对确保职位的重视程度存在明显差异：虽然超过四分之一的参议员具有高度的意识形态倾向，但也有相当数量的参议员为获得选举收益愿意做出较大的政策让步。尽管如此，由于参议员政策立场的变化对选民支持率的影响相对较小，选举问责平均而言只是适度的。
Quantifying the value that legislators give to reelection relative to policy is crucial to understanding electoral accountability. We estimate the preferences for office and policy of members of the U.S. Senate, using a structural approach that exploits variation in polls, position-taking, and advertising throughout the electoral cycle. We then combine these preference estimates with estimates of the electoral effectiveness of policy moderation and political advertising to quantify electoral accountability in competitive and uncompetitive elections. We find that senators differ markedly in the value they give to securing office relative to policy gains: While over a fourth of senators are highly ideological, a sizable number of senators are willing to make relatively large policy concessions to attain electoral gains. Nevertheless, electoral accountability is only moderate on average, due to the relatively low impact of changes in senators' policy stance on voter support.
23 军事文化与政治机构信任：来自欧洲征兵制改革的证据
【题目】
Military Culture and Institutional Trust: Evidence from Conscription Reforms in Europe
【作者】
Vincenzo Bove, Riccardo Di Leo, Marco Giani
【摘要】
征兵制是否使普通公民与国家之间的距离更紧密？征兵制废除几十年后，尽管缺乏这方面的经验证据，但欧洲各政治派别的众多政策制定者仍主张重新实行征兵制，以培养公民美德。我们利用15个欧洲国家征兵改革中的准随机变化，发现与刚被免除兵役的男性群体相比，在废除征兵制之前被征召入伍的男性群体表现出明显且大幅降低的政治机构信任度。同时，废除征兵制对同等女性群体的政治机构信任度没有影响。这些结果既不是对政府更支持的态度导致的，也不是因为教育选择。相反，这种军民差距是通过形成具有统一价值观的同质群体而产生的。我们认为，重新引入义务兵役制可能不会产生其倡导者所预期的效果。
Does military conscription reduce the distance between the ordinary citizen and the state? Decades after its abolition, numerous European policy makers from across the political spectrum advocate the reintroduction of conscription to foster civic virtues, despite a lack of empirical evidence in this respect. Leveraging quasi-random variation in conscription reforms across 15 European countries, we find that cohorts of men drafted just before its abolition display significantly and substantially lower institutional trust than cohorts of men who were just exempted. At the same time, ending conscription had no effect on institutional trust among women from comparable cohorts. Results are neither driven by more favorable attitudes toward the government, nor by educational choices. Instead, this civil–military gap unfolds through the formation of a homogeneous community with uniform values. We argue that reintroducing a compulsory military service may not produce the effects anticipated by its advocates.
24 关键词辅助主题模型
【题目】
Keyword-Assisted Topic Models
【作者】
Shusei Eshima, Kosuke Imai, Tomoya Sasaki
【摘要】
近年来，基于概率主题模型的全自动内容分析因其可扩展性而受到社会科学家的青睐。然而，研究人员发现，这些模型经常会无意中创建多个内容相似的主题，并将不同的主题合并为一个主题，从而无法衡量具有实质关切的特定概念。在本文中，我们通过实证证明，提供少量关键词就能大大提高主题模型的测量性能。本文提出的关键词辅助主题模型（keyATM）的一个重要优势是，关键词的指定要求研究人员在对数据拟合模型之前标注主题。这与普遍存在且损害实证研究结果客观性的事后对主题进行解释和调整的做法形成了鲜明对比。在我们的应用中，我们发现 keyATM 提供了更多可解释的结果，具有更好的文档分类性能，而且对主题数量的敏感度较低。
In recent years, fully automated content analysis based on probabilistic topic models has become popular among social scientists because of their scalability. However, researchers find that these models often fail to measure specific concepts of substantive interest by inadvertently creating multiple topics with similar content and combining distinct themes into a single topic. In this article, we empirically demonstrate that providing a small number of keywords can substantially enhance the measurement performance of topic models. An important advantage of the proposed keyword-assisted topic model (keyATM) is that the specification of keywords requires researchers to label topics prior to fitting a model to the data. This contrasts with a widespread practice of post hoc topic interpretation and adjustments that compromises the objectivity of empirical findings. In our application, we find that keyATM provides more interpretable results, has better document classification performance, and is less sensitive to the number of topics.
25 强迫移民、滞留的少数民族和新社会：来自战后捷克斯洛伐克的证据
【题目】
Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Postwar Czechoslovakia
【作者】
Jakub Grossmann, Štˇepán Jurajda, Felix Roesel
【摘要】
躲避种族清洗而滞留当地的少数民族能否影响滞留地社区的政治结果？二战后，300万德国人被驱逐出捷克斯洛伐克的苏台德地区，但一些德国人被允许留下来，其中许多人是左倾反法西斯分子。我们研究了驱逐政策在当地的准实验性变化，这是美国军队出人意料地存在的结果，它间接地帮助了反法西斯的德国人留下来。我们发现了一个持久的影响：如今，在反法西斯德国人留下较多的地方，共产党的支持、党小组和极左价值观更为强大。战后德国共产党精英似乎是这一效应的幕后推手，同时也推动了其价值观在党员积极分子中的代际传承。
Can staying minorities who evade ethnic cleansing affect political outcomes in resettled communities? After World War Two, three million ethnic Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland, but some were allowed to stay, many of them left-leaning antifascists. We study quasi-experimental local variation in expulsion policies, a result of the surprising presence of the U.S. Army, which indirectly helped antifascist Germans stay. We find a long-lasting footprint: Communist party support, party cells, and far-left values are stronger today where antifascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Postwar German Communist elites appear to be behind this effect along with the intergenerational transmission of values among active party members.
26 “巴别鱼”民主？通过机器翻译和口译解决民主政治语言障碍的前景
【题目】
Babel Fish Democracy? Prospects for Addressing Democratic Language Barriers through Machine Translation and Interpretation
【作者】
Luis Cabrera
【摘要】
本文旨在说明，机器翻译和口译技术可以在解决民主政体内部以及国家之外的语言障碍方面发挥重要作用。为解决此类障碍，已有文献提出了许多共享语言或口译模式，而大多数文献否定了机器模式的可能性。然而，如今在全球范围内，在线翻译的使用非常普遍，各国政府和国际组织也越来越多地使用机器翻译和某些口译应用。事实证明，在语言多样化的政体中，这些技术可以极大地增加普通公民的信息摄入，扩大公民的参与。这些技术还能避免其他模式所面临的公平性和成本等关键问题。特别是在线上环境中，这些技术可以通过混合配置的方式帮助解决这些关键问题。虽然从语音输入到语音输出的应用可能永远无法实现某些议事模式所需的“巴别鱼”式的无缝衔接的白话口译。但在一系列推进民主的途径中，机器模式对解决语言障碍方面具有重要价值。
This article works to show that machine translation and interpretation technologies can play significant roles in addressing language barriers in democratic polities, including beyond the state. Numerous shared-language or interpretation models have been proposed to address such barriers, while possible machine models have largely been dismissed in the literature. Yet, online translation is now ubiquitous globally, and governments and international organizations increasingly use machine translation and some interpretation applications. Such technologies, it is shown, can greatly expand information uptake and participation by ordinary citizens in linguistically diverse polities. They also can avoid key fairness and cost concerns faced by other models, or help address them in hybrid configurations, especially in online settings. While speech-to-speech applications may never achieve the seamless vernacular “Babel fish” interpretations implied as necessary for some deliberative modes, machine models can be seen as valuable for addressing language barriers within a range of approaches to democracy.
27 为分散式决策设计商议方式
【题目】
Designing Deliberation for Decentralized Decisions
【作者】
John W. Patty
【摘要】
我描述并分析了一个分散式决策环境下的战略沟通和商议模型。我的研究表明，在廉价谈判环境中，纳入和排除行为体会影响行为体之间信息传递的可信度，进而影响政策决策的质量和整体社会福利。令人略感意外的是，即使加入的行为体并不如实传达信息，纳入行为体也有助于信息汇总和增进社会福利。类似地是，研究结果为排斥行为体提供了基于信息和社会福利的原因。恰恰是因为被排斥的行为体拥有决策权，所以既要排斥行为体观察与政策相关的商议，还要排除行为体观察沟通的结果。
I describe and analyze a model of strategic communication and deliberation in decentralized decision-making settings. I show that, in a cheap-talk environment, inclusion and exclusion of agents can affect the credibility of messaging between agents and, accordingly, the quality of policy decisions and overall social welfare. Somewhat surprisingly, the inclusion of agents can aid information aggregation and social welfare even when the added agents do not themselves communicate truthfully. Analogously, the results suggest an informational, social welfare–based rationale for excluding agents not only from observing policy-relevant deliberation but also from observing the product of the communication precisely because the excluded agents possess decision-making authority.
28 裙带关系的作用：巴西的政治任命、官僚问责和服务提供
【题目】
How Patronage Delivers: Political Appointments, Bureaucratic Accountability, and Service Delivery in Brazil
【作者】
Guillermo Toral
【摘要】
对官僚的政治任命通常被认为是通过选择素质更差的人进入官僚系统或压制官僚的努力而阻碍官僚治理的发展。我认为，政治任命还通过第三种研究较少的渠道影响结果，即改变官僚的工作方式。官僚和政客的裙带关系使官僚能够确保物质和非物质资源的获取，加强监督，推进制裁和奖励的实施，协调优先事项和激励措施，并增加相互信任。因此，政治任命可以增强官僚的责任感和效率，不仅可以达到寻租的目的，而且在某些条件下还可以促进公共服务的提供。我利用巴西市政府的数据，借助两个准实验、两项针对官僚和政客的原创调查以及深入访谈，对这一理论进行了检验。研究结果凸显了人脉关系对发展中国家官僚治理的积极作用。
The political appointment of bureaucrats is typically seen as jeopardizing development by selecting worse types into the bureaucracy or by depressing bureaucratic effort. I argue that political appointments also affect outcomes through a third, less studied channel, namely, by changing how bureaucrats work. Patronage provides connections between bureaucrats and politicians, and thereby grants access to material and nonmaterial resources, enhances monitoring, facilitates the application of sanctions and rewards, aligns priorities and incentives, and increases mutual trust. Political appointments can thus enhance bureaucrats’ accountability and effectiveness, not just for rent-seeking purposes but also, in certain conditions, for public service delivery. I test this theory using data on Brazilian municipal governments, leveraging two quasi-experiments, two original surveys of bureaucrats and politicians, and in-depth interviews. The findings highlight the countervailing effects of connections on bureaucratic governance in the developing world.
29 分立政府、战略替代和总统单边主义
【题目】
Divided Government, Strategic Substitution, and Presidential Unilateralism
【作者】
Aaron R. Kaufman, Jon C. Rogowski
【摘要】
总统在通过行政行动制定新政策时，会从一系列工具中进行选择。我们研究了这种情况下的替代战略，并认为当国会有可能对总统行动进行审查时，总统会使用不那么明显的单边手段。我们利用 1946 年至 2020 年间发布的单边命令数据，得出两个主要发现。首先，通过分析总统对文书的选择，我们发现在分立政府时期，总统更有可能用备忘录和其他不那么引人注目的文书来替代行政命令和公告。其次，在考虑了行政命令与其他文书的替代关系后，我们发现总统在分立政府时期发布指令的数量多于统一政府时期。这些发现为说明三权分立限制总统的单边主义行为提供了新的证据，并强调了考虑总统制定单边政策的各种工具的重要性。
Presidents select from a range of instruments when creating new policies through executive action. We study strategic substitution in this context and argue that presidents use less visible means of unilateral instruments when Congress is likely to scrutinize presidential action. Using data on unilateral orders issued between 1946 and 2020, we report two main findings. First, analyzing presidents’ choice of instruments, we show that presidents are more likely to substitute memoranda and other less visible instruments for executive orders and proclamations during periods of divided government. Second, after accounting for the substitution of executive orders with other instruments, we find that presidents issue greater numbers of directives during divided government than during unified government. These findings provide new evidence about the limitations of the separation of powers as a constraint on presidential unilateralism and highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of instruments through which presidents create unilateral policies.
30 相对贫困是否制约了社会保障项目对政治支持的影响？来自巴基斯坦的实验证据
【题目】
Does Relative Deprivation Condition the Effects of Social Protection Programs on Political Support? Experimental Evidence from Pakistan
【作者】
Katrina Kosec, Cecilia Hyunjung Mo
【摘要】
对于相对经济地位的感知是否会影响公民对政治领导人和政治制度的支持？我们通过研究巴基斯坦的国家无条件现金转移项目--贝纳齐尔收入支持计划（Benazir Income Support Program，BISP）--来探讨这个问题。运用断点回归方法，利用贝纳齐尔收入支持计划的行政数据和一项原创性的调查实验，我们发现，相对贫困会影响公民对社会保障的感知。当公民不感到相对贫困时，接受现金转移对个人在政治制度及其领导人的支持程度方面几乎没有持续影响。然而，当公民感到相对贫困时，那些收到现金转移的人在政治上会更加满意，而那些没有收到现金转移的人在政治上会更加不满。此外，非受益者政治支持率下降的幅度要大于受益者政治支持率上升的幅度。这项研究对我们理解感知不平等加剧的政治影响具有重要意义。
Could perceived relative economic standing affect citizens’ support for political leaders and institutions? We explore this question by examining Pakistan's national unconditional cash transfer program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Leveraging a regression discontinuity approach using BISP's administrative data and an original survey experiment, we find that perceptions of relative deprivation color citizen reactions to social protection. When citizens do not feel relatively deprived, receiving cash transfers has little sustained effect on individuals’ reported level of support for their political system and its leaders. However, when citizens feel relatively worse off, those receiving cash transfers become more politically satisfied while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. Moreover, the magnitude of the reduction in political support among non-beneficiaries is larger than the magnitude of the increase in political support among beneficiaries. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising perceived inequality.
〇 翻译：姚远、李心怡、魏晓然
〇 审校：姚远、李心怡、魏晓然