双语阅读｜英国脱欧后有50%可能性会经济衰退
The UK has a 50/50 chance of falling into recession within the next 18 months following the Brexit vote, says a leading economic forecaster.
一位知名经济学家预测，在脱欧后的18个月内，英国经济面临衰退的可能性为50%。
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the country will go through a "marked economic slowdown" this year and next.
英国国家经济和社会研究所（NIESR）表示，英国将在今明两年经历“严重的经济衰退”。
Inflation will pick up temporarily too, rising to 3% by the end of next year.
在明年年底，英国通胀率将暂时上升至3%。
"This is the short-term economic consequence of the vote to leave the EU", said Simon Kirby of the NIESR.
“这是脱欧公投导致的短期经济影响，” 该研究所的经济学家西蒙·柯比（Simon Kirby ）说道。
Overall the institute forecasts that the UK economy will probably grow by 1.7% this year but will expand by just 1% in 2017.
总体而言，该研究所预计，今年英国经济将增长1.7%，但在明年经济仅会增长1%。
This would see the UK avoid a technical recession, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
这表明，英国将避免技术性经济衰退——即经济连续两个季度负增长。
Mr Kirby argued that the June referendum vote had led to such financial and political uncertainty that this would bear directly on the spending and investment decisions of both businesses and households.
柯比认为，6月的公投导致了金融和政治的不稳，直接影响企业以及家庭的支出和投资决策。
"We expect the UK to experience a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017," he said.
“我们预计在2016年下半年至2017年，英国将面临严重的经济衰退”，柯比说道。
"There is an evens chance of a 'technical' recession in the next 18 months, while there is an elevated risk of further deterioration in the near term."
“在接下来的18个月里，英国经济陷入“技术性”衰退的可能性为50%，而在近期经济进一步恶化的风险增大。”
The pick-up in inflation to 3% will mainly be due to the recent fall in the value of the pound, but that should be ignored by the Bank of England the Institute said.
该研究所表示，通胀率增长至3%主要是因为近期英镑贬值，但是，英国央行英格兰银行（the Bank of England）应不会理会这一原因。
"The Monetary Policy Committee should 'look through' this temporary rise in inflation and ease monetary policy substantially in the coming months," Mr Kirby said.
“货币政策委员会应该‘看清’这一暂时性的通胀攀升，并在接下来的几个月里实行宽松的货币政策，”柯比说道。
The institute forecasts that the Bank will reduce interest rates to just 0.1% eventually, after cutting them to 0.25% later this week.
该研究所预计，在本周英格兰银行可能会把利率降至0.25%，最终利率可能会降至0.1%。
Falling optimism
企业信心下滑
In a separate report, the CBI business lobby group says that the UK's small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMEs) fear they will be hit by a fall in orders in the next three months.
在另一篇报告中，英国工业联合会(CBI)表示，英国中小型制造商（SMEs）担心在未来三个月里因订单会减少而受到冲击。
Its latest quarterly survey of SMEs says business optimism has fallen at its fastest rate since January 2009, when the UK economy was falling into recession.
该联会的最新季度调查显示，中小型制造商的企业信心指数下跌速度达到自2009年1月以来的巅峰（彼时英国经济开始衰退）。
Now, the culprit is the uncertainty following June's Brexit vote.
目前，罪魁祸首就是6月脱欧公投带来的不稳定性。
Despite this, the 472 firms surveyed said that current orders were stable.
尽管如此，接受调查的472家企业表示目前订单状况稳定。
Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI's director for economics, said: "The UK's SME manufacturers reported higher production, more staff hired and now expect to sell more of their world-class goods overseas over the next quarter, with a weaker sterling having a hand in this.
该联合会的首席经济学家牛顿史密斯(Rain Newton-Smith)说：“英国中小型制造商提高了产量，招收了更多员工，而受到英镑贬值的影响，他们在下一季度将会出口更多优质产品。
"But overall they do feel less optimistic and are scaling back some investment plans in machinery and plants."
“不过，总的来说，他们的信心确实有所下降，同时也减少了对机械设备和工厂的投资计划。”
The CBI's survey is just the latest to suggest that the effect of the June referendum vote may be, in the short term at least, to depress business activity.
CBI的这一份最析调查报告表明，至少在短期内，6月的公投将导致企业活跃度下降。
On Monday the Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers' indexsuggested that activity among UK manufacturers in July had shrunk at its fastest pace for three years.
在8月1日，Markit/CIPS制造业采购经理人指数（purchasing managers' index）表明，今年7月英国制造商的商业活动萎缩速度达三年以来的最高峰。
Meanwhile shoppers continue to benefit from falling prices in the UK's shops, stores and supermarkets.
此外，在英国各大商店消费时，消费者将继续受益于不断下跌的商品价格。
According to the latest survey from the trade body the British Retail Consortium, overall prices fell by 1.6% in the year to July.
而英国零售商协会( British Retail Consortium)的最新调查显示，商品的整体价格同比下降了1.6%。
Food was 0.8% cheaper than a year ago and non-food items were 2.2% lower.
其中食品以及非食品的价格同比分别下降了0.8%和2.2%。
编译：陈淑敏
编辑：齐磊
英文来源：BBC
中文来源：中国日报网爱新闻iNews