双语阅读｜中国人工智能政策“令人担忧”
IMAGINE the perfect environment for developing artificial intelligence (AI). The ingredients would include masses of processing power, lots of computer-science boffins, a torrent of capital—and abundant data with which to train machines to recognise and respond to patterns. That environment might sound like a fair description of America, the current leader in the field. But in some respects it is truer still of China.
设想一下人工智能（AI）发展的最佳环境：需要大规模数据计算能力、众多计算机科学工作者、大量资本，以及训练机器对图形的识别和反应能力所需的庞大数据。这样的环境听起来也许正是该领域领头羊美国。可是，从某些方面来说，中国更符合上述条件。
The country is rapidly building up its cloud-computing capacity. For sheer volume of research on AI, if not quality, Chinese academics surpass their American peers; AI-related patent submissions in China almost tripled between 2010 and 2014 compared with the previous five years. Chinese startups are attracting billions in venture capital. Above all, China has over 700m smartphone users, more than any other country. They are consuming digital services, using voice assistants, paying for stuff with a wave of their phones—and all the while generating vast quantities of data. That gives local firms such as Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent the opportunity to concoct best-in-class AI systems for everything from facial recognition to messaging bots. The government in Beijing is convinced of the potential. On July 20th it outlined a development strategy designed to make China the world’s leading AI power by 2030.
中国正飞速提升云计算能力。抛开质量，单从对人工智能的研究数量上来看，中国的学术研究超过美国。2010至2014年间，中国申请的人工智能相关专利数量约是之前五年的3倍。中国企业吸引的风险资本高达数十亿元。另外，中国有7亿多智能手机用户，世界第一。这些用户购买数字服务、使用语音助手、摇一摇手机就能购物，这些都创造出大量数据。这对于阿里巴巴、百度、腾讯等中国本土企业来说，是设计同类最佳人工智能系统的机会——无论是人脸识别，还是聊天机器人。中国政府也清楚这一技术的发展潜力。6月20日，中国发布了一项发展计划，拟在2030年前将中国发展成世界领先的人工智能强国。
An AI boom in the world’s most populous place holds out enormous promise. No other country could generate such a volume of data to enable machines to learn patterns indicative of rare diseases, for example. The development of new technologies ought to happen faster, too. Because typing Chinese characters is fiddly, voice-recognition services are more popular than in the West; they should improve faster as a result. Systems to adjust traffic lights automatically in response to footage from roadside cameras are already being tested. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, a research arm of the consultancy, AI-driven automation could boost China’s GDP growth by more than a percentage point annually.
在世界上人口最多的国家兴起人工智能热潮前景广阔。别的国家创造不出这样多的数据，供机器学习代表罕见疾病的图形等等。应当快速发展新技术，由于中国的汉字输入繁琐，语音识别服务在中国比西方更受欢迎，因此，这类服务应得到更快发展。根据路边摄像头拍摄记录自动调整信号灯的系统已经开始调试。麦肯锡咨询公司的研究机构麦肯锡全球研究院提供的数据表明，人工智能驱动的自动化可能会使中国GDP年均增长超过1个百分点。
Yet the country’s AI plans also give cause for concern. One worry is that the benefits of Chinese breakthroughs will be muted by data protectionism. A cyber-security law that came into force in June requires foreign firms to store data they collect on Chinese customers within the country’s borders; outsiders cannot use Chinese data to offer services to third parties. It is not hard to imagine tit-for-tat constraints on Chinese firms. And if data cannot be pooled, the algorithms that run autonomous cars and other products may not be the most efficient.
但是，中国的人工智能计划也引发一些忧虑。其中一点就是，中国这些突破所占的优势会被数据保护主义削弱。6月起开始生效的网络安全法要求外国公司只能将收集到的中国客户信息在中国境内存储，境外人士不得利用这些数据向第三方提供服务。因此，也不难想象到该法律对中国公司更加苛刻的限制。如果数据无法集中，无人驾驶汽车及其他产品的运行程序可能不会是最有效率的。
A second area of unease is ethics and safety. In America, the technology giants of Silicon Valley have pledged to work together to make sure that any AI tools they develop are safe. They will look at techniques like “boxing”, in which AI agents are isolated from their environment so that any wayward behaviour does not have disastrous effects. All the leading AI researchers in the West are signatories to an open letter from 2015 calling for a ban on the creation of autonomous weapons. If it happens at all, the equivalent Chinese discussion about the limits of ethical AI research is far more opaque.
担忧的第二个方面在于道德标准和安全问题。在美国，硅谷科技巨头曾承诺将一道合作，以保证研发的一切人工智能工具安全无害。这些公司将技术看作是“装箱”，人工智能体被孤立在他们的环境之外，这样，任何意外的行为都不会造成灾难性结果。在2015年一封呼吁禁止制造全自动武器的公开信上，西方所有人工智能巨头都签了名。如果有可能的话，中国在针对人工智能道德研究的类似讨论可能不会透明。
Chinese AI companies do have incentives to think about some of these issues: rogue AI would be a problem for the planet wherever it emerged. There is a self-interested case for the formulation of global safety standards, for example. But a third concern—that AI will be used principally to the benefit of China’s government—is a less tractable problem.
中国的人工智能企业有动力去思考这些问题：恶性人工智能无论出现在哪里，都将威胁到整个星球，比如制定一个对自己有利的全球安全标准。但是，还有一个令人担忧的方面：如果人工智能主要用于中国政府的利益，那么这一问题将很难处理。
Autocratic intelligence
“专制智能”
The new plan is open about AI’s value to the state. It envisages the use of the technology in everything from guided missiles to predictive policing. AI techniques are perfect for finding patterns in the massive amounts of data that Chinese censors must handle in order to maintain a grip on the citizenry. It is easy to imagine how the same data could boost the country’s nascent plans to create a “social-credit” system that scores people for their behaviour. Once perfected, these algorithms would interest autocratic regimes around the world. China’s tech firms are in no position to prevent the government in Beijing from taking advantage of such tools. Baidu, for example, has been appointed to lead a national laboratory for deep learning. Chinese AI will reflect the influence of the state.
中国的新计划很清楚地表明人工智能对国家的价值，对该技术在导弹、犯罪预警等方面的应用做出设想。人工智能技术非常适合在大量数据中寻找图形，这也是中国的审查部门了解全体公民必须要做的事情。不难想象，同样的数据会推动国家未成熟计划的开展 ，创建一个依据人们表现评分的“社会信用”体系。这些算法程序一旦完善，将有利于全世界各地的专制政权。中国的科技企业无法阻止政府利用这些工具。例如百度被指派领导一个国家级的深入学习人工智能的实验室。中国的人工智能会体现出政府的影响。
Western firms and governments are no angels when it comes to data collection and espionage. But Western companies are at least engaged in an open debate about the ethical implications of AI; and intelligence agencies are constrained by democratic institutions. Neither is true of China. AI is a technology with the potential to change the lives of billions. If China ends up having most influence over its future, then the state, not citizens, may be the biggest beneficiary.
当涉及数据采集和间谍活动等问题，西方企业及政府也不是什么善人。不过，西方企业至少会参与有关人工智能道德性的公开辩论，智能企业也会受到民主机构的限制。中国并没有这些环节。人工智能是一项能够改变数十亿人生活的技术，如果中国最终对这项技术的未来有重要影响，最大的受益者也许不会是民众，而是国家。
编译：汪丽晨
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人