双语阅读｜中国的珠三角经验
LIBERAL ECONOMICS MAY have gone out of fashion, but not before working miracles in some parts of the world. To witness one of them, visit the Luohu immigration-control point on Shenzhen’s border with Hong Kong, where some 80m crossings are made every year. Since Deng Xiaoping designated the mainland Chinese city as a special economic zone in 1980, putting out the welcome mat for foreign investment and encouraging private enterprise, trillions of dollars of trade and investment have flowed across this border.
自由经济可能早已过时，可是不久前确实世界一些地方创造过奇迹。想亲眼目睹其中一些奇迹，不妨到深圳通往香港的罗湖出入境管理处看看——每年那里出入境游客约八千万人次。1980年，邓小平将深圳划为中国第一个经济特区，从此，开放的大门向外国投资者打开，鼓励创办民营企业，上万亿美元的贸易投资源源不断地此处流过。
Forty years ago Shenzhen was a rural backwater. Today it is the most dynamic city of the Pearl river delta (PRD), China’s most innovative region. Rem Koolhaas, a Dutch architect who teaches at Harvard, called it the ultimate “generic city”—a place without legacy that can swiftly adapt and grow with the times. It is still doing that, but is now old enough to have a memory.
四十年前，深圳还是个贫穷落后的小渔村。如今，它已成为中国珠江三角洲地区（PRD）这个最富有创造力地域中最具活力的城市。现于任教哈佛大学的荷兰建筑师雷姆·库哈斯（ Rem Koolhaas）称深圳是“通属城市”中的典型代表——深圳没有任何历史积淀，却能跟紧时代的步伐，调整适应，顺时发展。现在的深圳依旧如此，不同之处在于它有自己的历史积淀。
Not far from the border crossing is Hubei, one of the city’s original communities. Old buildings in the neighbourhood are being demolished to make way for modern structures. “If we all get involved in this transformation, every family will benefit!” declares a giant banner. The authorities are offering compensation to villagers and local homeowners.
湖贝村离罗湖出入境管理处很近，是深圳历史最悠久的村落之一。村里老旧的建筑物正拆毁，代之以现代建筑。一条巨大的横幅上写着“支持拆迁，造福万家！”几个大字。当她政府将向村民和当地房主提供拆迁补偿。
“Many people consider this place a slum,” explains Mary Ann O’Donnell, an American expert on Shenzhen’s urban villages. It is indeed shabby compared with Nanshan, a wealthy high-tech neighbourhood nearby with an average income per person of over $50,000 a year. Yet even this humble place has benefited from globalisation. The homes here have proper walls and roofs, as well as electricity, running water and sewerage. Hubei is not heaven, but any slum-dweller in Caracas or Mumbai would love to live like this.
研究深圳城中村现象的美国专家玛丽·安·欧唐奈（Mary Ann O’Donnell）解释道：“很多人把湖贝村看作贫民窟。”的确，与居民人均年收入超过五万美元的高端富人区南山区相比，湖贝村确实破旧不堪。但是，这个不起眼的小地方也从全球化中尝到了甜头。这里的房子安全可靠，通水电，还安装了污水排污系统。湖贝村虽比不上天堂，却是印度孟买和委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯贫民窟里的居民梦寐以求的地方。
Though the delta accounts for less than 1% of China’s territory and 5% of its population, it generates more than a tenth of its GDP and a quarter of its exports
虽然珠三角地区面积不到中国领土面积的1%，人口不足总人口的5%，却贡献了超过10%的国民生产总值，创造了超过25%的出口总量。
The PRD is home to nine mainland cities in the province of Guangdong, notably Shenzhen and Guangzhou (formerly Canton), as well as to China’s special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau (see map). The World Bank recently declared the PRD the world’s biggest megacity, surpassing Tokyo. With over 66m residents, it is more populous than Italy or, just, Britain.
珠三角地区覆盖了广东九个城市（其中包括深圳和广州），以及香港和澳门特别行政区（见地图）。世界银行近日宣布，珠三角地区取代东京，成为全球最大的城市群，人口超过6600万，与英国人口相当，比意大利总人口还多。
This modest-sized triangle of land and water near China’s southern fringe has one of the world’s most successful economies. Its GDP, at more than $1.2trn, is bigger than that of Indonesia, which has four times as many people. It has been growing at an average of 12% a year for the past decade. As a global trading power the region is outranked only by America and Germany.
珠江三角洲不算很大，靠近中国南部沿海地区，却成为世界上经济最成功的地区之一。珠三角的国民生产总值超过1.2万亿，比整个印度尼西亚的国民生产总值还要多，而后者人口是其四倍。过去的十年中，珠三角地区的经济年均增长速度为12%，全球贸易能力仅次于美国和德国。
For China itself, the PRD is crucial. Though it accounts for less than 1% of the country’s territory and 5% of its population, it generates more than a tenth of its GDP and a quarter of its exports. It soaks up a fifth of China’s total foreign direct investment and has attracted over a trillion dollars-worth of FDI since 1980. Above all, it is a shining example of the China that works.
对中国而言，珠三角的地位不可取代。虽然它面积不及领土的1%，人口不足总人口的5%，创造的国民生产总值超过10%，带来的出口总量大于25%。它吸收了中国五分之一的外国直接投资。1980年以来，吸引了总额超过一万亿美元的外国直接投资。总之，这是中国经济活力的明证。
None of this would have happened without free enterprise. For centuries this trading post was the country’s most globalised corner. The economic liberalisation of the 1980s and 1990s transformed the delta into China’s leading manufacturing and export hub. Now it is rapidly becoming one of the world’s most innovative clusters.
如果没有自由企业体制，这一切都不会发生。数百年以前，这个贸易口岸就是中国最具备全球化特征的一角。二十世纪八十和九十年代的经济自由大潮使珠江三角洲成为中国最大的制造业中心和出口地。如今，它正逐渐成长为世界上最富有创新精神的地区之一。
Even so, this great workshop to the world is now facing a number of challenges. Rival economies in South-East Asia and elsewhere are becoming more competitive. FDI inflows are slowing. And as the whole of China is getting older and its labour force is shrinking, the flow of migrants into the region is drying up. The net inflow of migrants into Guangdong has fallen by nearly half since 2008, from 1.1m to just 600,000 last year. Over the same period the net outflow of workers from Hunan, a poor neighbouring province, dropped from 286,000 to barely 30,000. Rising competition and a shrinking workforce are national problems—but as the most open and market-oriented part of China, the delta is feeling the pain more than the rest of the country.
即便如此，珠三角这个世界制造中心也正面临诸多挑战。东南亚和许多其他地区的强劲经济体愈发具有竞争力。外国直接投资的流入量减少，加上中国的日益严重的人口老龄化问题使得劳动力逐渐减少，民工群体规模不断缩水。2008年以来，广东省的净流动人口下降了近一半；截止到2016年，净流动人口数已经从此前的110万骤降到60万。同一时期，湖南的工人净流出从28.6万骤减到3万。日益激烈的竞争以及不断缩减的劳动力是我国存在的普遍问题，但是，作为最具开放性以及市场导向的珠三角，无疑要首当其冲，领略其中苦楚。
This special report will ask whether the PRD can adapt to these harsh new realities and once again lead the rest of China by example. It will point to four powerful trends that should help make the delta fit for the future: diversification, integration, automation and innovation.
本期特别报道将对“珠三角是否能够适应当前的残酷现实并再次成为中国经济发展的领头羊”提出质疑，并指出四种可使珠三角地区更加适应世界未来发展的有力转向：多样化，一体化，自动化和创新。
Diversification is necessary for two reasons. As already noted, the cheap labour that once kept the delta’s manufacturing plants going is running out and wages are rocketing, so bosses are shifting some factories to places with lower labour costs. At the same time exporting to the West has become harder. Rich-world economies have grown little since the financial crisis nearly a decade ago, and both America and Europe are becoming more resistant to trade, so the delta’s manufacturers are redirecting some of their exports to the Chinese market instead.
多样化必不可少，原因有二。正如之前提到过的，曾使珠三角的制造业工厂得以运转的廉价劳动力目前正在流失，工资不断飙升，这就迫使工厂老板不得不把工厂改在劳动力成本低的地方。与此同时，向西方国家出口产品也变得越来越困难。近十年前的金融危机使得一些富裕国家的经济发展得很慢，连美国和欧洲的贸易都变得疲软，因此，珠三角地区的的一些制造商正将他们的出口产品重新瞄准中国市场。
Governments and firms are also trying harder to integrate markets, investing in infrastructure that will make it easier to do business in the region. Unlike the Yangzi river delta cluster around Shanghai, which focuses on the domestic market, the PRD serves the world, so its infrastructure was designed mainly for exports. Its supply-chain firms are now developing new logistics systems to serve domestic demand. Automation plays a big part in this adjustment process.
政府和商界也正努力尝试重新整合市场，增加基础设施投资，以便能够在此地更容易地开展贸易。与致力于国内市场的长江三角洲集群不同，珠三角面向的是全世界，因此，它的基础设施也主要取决于出口。珠三角地区的供应链企业目前正在开发新的物流体系，以满足国内需求。自动化则在这种调整过程中扮演重要角色。
Alpha delta
阿尔法三角洲
Most remarkably, a region once known for copycat products is emerging as a world-class cluster for innovation. Shenzhen, a city of migrants, has rapidly moved from sweatshops to advanced manufacturing, robotics and genomics. It is home to Huawei and Tencent, two of China’s most valuable and inventive multinationals. Even Apple, an American technology giant, is building a research and development centre there.
最重要的是，这个曾以制造高仿品出名的地区目前发展为世界一流的创新之地。深圳，这座主力军为流动人口的城市，从原来的血汗工厂迅速发展为先进的制造业基地、机器人科学以及基因组学研究中心。它是中国最具价值和创造力的跨国企业——华为和腾讯的总部所在地。即使是美国的科技巨头——苹果公司，目前也正在深圳建立研究和发展中心。
Hong Kong, which this summer marks the 20th anniversary of its handover from Britain to China, is the perfect complement to innovative Shenzhen. Its commitment to free speech, the rule of law and international standards has made it a vibrant global financial centre. Cross-border financial flows between G 47 32067 47 15288 0 0 3468 0 0:00:09 0:00:04 0:00:05 3468uangdong and Hong Kong are an explicit part of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement, an accord between the mainland and Hong Kong that liberalises trade and investment in many goods and services. Hong Kong’s banking system and capital markets are in private hands, whereas their counterparts on the mainland are tightly controlled by the state. Hong Kong is also the leading offshore centre for trading the yuan and the conduit for much of the foreign investment by mainland firms.
2017年是香港回归20周年，香港对创新城市深圳来说是很好的互补。它崇尚言论自由，恪守法治及国际准则，是充满活力的全球金融中心。广东和香港之间的跨境金融流动是《大陆与香港更紧密经贸关系协定》中非常重要的一部分—— 这个协定是为了促进香港和大陆许多商品和服务的自由贸易和投资。香港的银行体系和资本市场都由民间掌控，而在大陆，这些都由政府严格控制。香港还是最大的离岸人民币交易中心，也是内地企业很大一部分对外投资的渠道。
When the mainland’s economy emerged from the devastation wrought by Mao Zedong’s policies, it was the PRD that pointed the way to the future. Shenzhen’s entrepreneurs defied central planners and demonstrated the power of market forces.
在大陆的经济从“文革”后逐渐恢复的过程中，珠三角指明了未来的方向。深圳的企业家们证明了市场力量的威力。
The mainland is now in difficulty again, with double-digit growth a distant memory. It is struggling with excessive public debt. Too much investment has gone into white-elephant projects and ghost cities. Failure to reform or kill bloated state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has created zombie companies.
大陆的经济发展目前又陷入困境，两位数的经济增长早已成为历史。过度的公共债务成为其困扰。大量的投资都流入华而不实的工程以及房屋闲置无数的城市。改革以及扼杀过度膨胀的国有企业（SOEs）的连连失败，造成了大量僵尸企业的出现。
In contrast, the PRD’s economy is made up mostly of private companies. Of the more than 100 giant SOEs controlled directly by the central government, only four are based in this market-minded region. The delta’s nimble firms have long been exposed to brutal competition in global markets. Some have succumbed or moved to cheaper places, but many of those that remain are world class. The question is, can the delta continue to lead?
与之相反，珠三角经济大多是由民营企业创造的。在全国100多家由中央政府直接控制的大型国有企业中，珠三角只占了4家。珠三角精明的企业早就投身全球市场的残酷竞争中。有些败下阵来，有些则迁往更廉价的地方，不过很多留下来的都是世界级的。那么问题来了，未来珠三角还能继续引领风骚吗？
编译：陈思
审校：刘婷婷
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人