美元在全球外汇储备中的地位如何？

福利：联系扑克小公举（id:puoke002）申请成为扑克财经App智咖；关注公众号引一汪活水（id:puokebaijia）获得大宗商品/投资交易领域更多干货。

文 | Wolf Richter，译者：王为，转载自 市川新田三丁目

Renminbi gains, but in painfully slow micro-steps. Dollar & euro combined share slides.

人民币在国际上的地位有所提升，但步伐极其缓慢，美元和欧元加在一起在全球外汇储备中的占比出现下滑

How long can the US dollar maintain its status as the global reserve currency and as global hegemon?  That’s a question that comes up a lot, particularly among people who’d like to see it knocked off its perch. So here we go.

美元作为全球储备货币和全球霸主的角色还能维持多久？这个问题有很多人都在问，尤其是那些希望见到美元跌落神坛的人。下面开始一探究竟吧。

Total global foreign exchange reserves in all currencies ticked up to $11.4 trillion in the first quarter 2019, according to the IMF’s just released COFER data. USD-denominated exchange reserves rose to $6.74 trillion, with their share of global foreign exchange reserves ticking up to 61.8%. These are USD-denominated financial assets (US Treasury securities, corporate bonds, etc.) that central banks other than the Fed are holding in their foreign exchange reserves. The Fed’s own holdings of USD-denominated assets, such as its Treasury securities and Mortgage-Backed Securities acquired as part of QE, are not included in “foreign exchange reserves.”

截止到2019年1季度末，以所有货币标价的全球外汇储备的总量增至11.4万亿美元，数据来源于国际货币基金组织刚刚发布的官方外汇储备货币构成COFER报告。其中，美元外汇储备增至6.74万亿美元，占全球外汇储备总量的比例为61.8%，这些由美国国债和美国的公司债等构成的美元金融资产被美联储之外的其他国家央行所持有。美联储自己持有的美元资产，如作为量化宽松计划组成部分的美国国债和按揭质押债券，则并没有被包括在“外汇储备”的统计总量中。

The US dollar’s role as a global reserve currency declines when central banks other than the Fed shed their dollar-denominated holdings and replace it with assets denominated in other currencies.

如果美联储之外的其他国家央行减持所持有的美元资产并代之以其他国家货币标价的资产，美元作为全球储备货币的重要性将失色。

There have been two potentially big changes over the last two decades: The creation of the euro at the turn of the century; and in 2016, the Chinese renminbi.

在过去二十年中，发生了两个重大的变化：一是二十一世纪之交欧元的诞生，二是2016年以来人民币的崛起。

The euro, the first big change, replaced the national currencies of EU member states, starting with five currencies – including the Deutsche mark which had been one of the major reserve currencies, but way below the dollar. As this change was taking place in phases, the dollar’s share dropped from 71.5% in 2001 to 66.5% in 2002.

第一个重大变化是欧元替代了欧盟各成员国自己的主权货币，欧元最初只包含了5个国家货币的权重，包括当时作为全球主要储备货币之一的德国马克，但其在全球的地位远低于美元。随着这一变化的持续发展，美元在全球外汇总量中的占比从2001年的71.5%降至2002年的66.5%。

There are now 19 member states in the Eurozone. The effort to eventually consolidate all European currencies in one big currency was powered by the hope of knocking the dollar off its hegemonic perch. At the time, the talk was about how the euro would eventually achieve “parity” with the dollar. But the euro debt crisis interfered, and the euro’s share of foreign exchange reserves has gotten stuck at around 20%, putting the kibosh on any “parity” hopes. In Q1, it’s share fell to 20.2%.

如今，欧元区的成员国已达19个。希望将美元从其独霸天下的舞台上拉下马的期望也强化了最终将全部欧洲货币整合成一个单一货币的努力。当时，人们谈论的是欧元如何才能最终取得与美元平起平坐的地位。但是欧洲危机的爆发打断了这一进程，欧元在全球外汇储备总量中的占比止步于20%左右，让欧元与美元平起平坐的梦想化为一堆泡影。2019年一季度，欧元在全球外汇储备总量中的占比降至20.2%。

The Chinese renminbi, the second big change – well, “potentially” big change – was included in the IMF’s currency basket, the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), in October 2016. This elevated the renminbi to an official global reserve currency. Expectations that the renminbi would quickly knock the dollar off its perch have also been disappointed: It’s moving only at a snail’s pace.

第二个重大变化，也许应该说是“有可能发生”的重大变化，是人民币于2016年被纳入国际货币基金组织的一揽子货币即特别提款权中，这一举措将人民币提升到了全球官方储备货币的地位，但是寄希望于人民币的崛起将把美元拉下神坛的人也会感到大失所望，人民币的崛起速度非常缓慢。

The dollar and the euro combined accounted for a share of 82.1% in Q1. This is down 4 percentage points from 2014 (86.2%):

2019年一季度，美元和欧元加在一起在全球外汇储备中的占比为82.1%，比2014年86.2%的占比低了4个百分点。

The chart below shows the overall scheme of things concerning the share of the top reserve currencies. The dollar dominates. The euro is second. Both are quantum leaps ahead of the remaining top reserve currencies, the dense spaghetti at the bottom of the chart. The renminbi (RMB) is the red line near the very bottom:

下图显示的是与主要几个储备货币占比有关的整体情况，美元仍占大头，欧元紧随其后，这两个货币的占比遥遥领先于其他几个主要的储备货币，这些货币在图中底部密密麻麻排列着，人民币为接近最底部的红线。

As small as the renminbi’s share still is, it is gaining on some other currencies. In Q1 2019, with a share of 1.95%, it is in fifth place (in Q4, 2018, it had inched past the Canadian dollar for the first time):

虽然人民币在全球外汇储备总量中的占比仍很低，但与其他外币相比占比还是出现了上升。2019年一季度，人民币在全球外汇储备总量中的占比为1.95%，排名第五，在2018年四季度排名首度超过加拿大元，各货币的具体占比如下：

1.Dollar: 61.8%美元

2.Euro: 20.2%欧元

3.Japanese yen: 5.2%, up from3.6% in 2014.日元为5.2%，高于2014年的3.6%

4.UK pound sterling, at 4.5%.英镑为4.5%

5.Chinese renminbi: 1.95%(record) 人民币的1.95%为历史最高水平

6.Canadian Dollar: 1.92%加拿大元

7.Australian dollar: 1.7%澳大利亚元

8.Swiss franc: 0.15%瑞士法郎

9.Other: 2.45%其他货币占比

The share of these currencies is based on “allocated” reserves, as the IMF explains. Not all central banks disclose to the IMF how their total foreign exchange reserves are “allocated” among specific currencies. Back in 2014, only 59% of the foreign exchange reserves had been “allocated.” Since then, more and more central banks have disclosed to the IMF the allocation of their reserves. In Q1 2019, allocated reserves reached 94%. But the IMF does not publish the central banks individual holdings.

按照国际货币基金组织的解释，这些货币的占比是基于外汇储备的配置情况进行计算的。但不是所有国家的央行均向国际货币基金组织披露其外汇储备的配置明细。在2014年，只有59%的外汇储备进行了资产配置。自那时起，越来越多的央行向国际货币基金组织披露其外汇储备的配置情况。2019年一季度，外汇储备总量中进行资产配置部分的占比达到94%，但国际货币基金组织没有披露各家央行具体的外汇储备配置明细。

The theory that refuses to do die is that the US, as the country with “the” global reserve currency, “must have” a large trade deficit with the rest of the world. True, the US has a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world. But this “must have” is disproven by the euro, the second largest reserve currency: The Eurozone has a massive trade surplus with the rest of the world, proving that a major reserve currency can be backed by a trade surplus. And the yen, the third largest reserve currency, is backed by Japan’s large trade surplus.

有一种理论认为，美国作为全球最主要的储备货币发行国，“必须”与其他国家之间形成巨额的贸易逆差。诚然，美国对全球其他国家形成了巨大的贸易逆差。但这个“必须形成巨额的贸易逆差”的观点并没有得到第二大储备货币欧元的印证。欧元区与全球其他国家之间存在着巨大的贸易顺差，有力地证明了一个主要的储备货币是能以贸易顺差为存在前提的。而日元作为全球第三大储备货币，其背后也有日本的巨额贸易顺差。

The relationship would be the other way around. The fact that the dollar is the largest reserve currency (and the largest international funding currency) permits the US to easily fund its trade deficits. Countries that benefit from their trade surpluses with the US encourage this. They fear that if the dollar were knocked off its perch, the US could no longer fund those trade deficits, and in turn, these exporting countries could no longer run these big surpluses with the US, thus harming their own economies. So knocking the dollar off its perch would get complicated for other countries in a hurry.

储备货币的地位与贸易顺差或逆差之间的关系另有玄机。美元是全球最主要的储备货币以及最主要的融资货币这一事实使得美国可以轻松地获得融资弥补其贸易逆差，那些对美享有贸易顺差的国家也起到了推波助澜的作用。这些国家担心如果美元霸主地位不保，美国将不再能够通过融资的方式弥补贸易逆差，反过来，这些主要的出口国也就无法继续对美形成贸易顺差，这就会损害到本国的利益，因此美元霸主地位不保会立马让这些国家感到左右为难。

扫描下方二维码即可关注王为↓↓↓

福利一：联系扑克小公举（id:puoke002）申请成为扑克财经App智咖；
福利二：关注公众号引一汪活水（id:puokebaijia）获得大宗商品/投资交易领域更多干货。

福利三：后台回复关键词百科，使用一站式大宗金融百科搜索引擎。

【扑克财经APP爆款圈子大合集】

国内顶级投资大咖、资深产业专家、一线基金经理、顶级咨询机构合作的重磅投研策略产品，价值千万；

这是一份不可错过的投研伴侣，

已服务1000+产业/机构/投资者；

这是一个属于你的专属研究院，

让你站在巨人的肩膀上看世界，

站在大咖的投研成果上做投资！

▼请点击“阅读原文”，立即加入圈子！