奥巴马承认美国在孤立中国

美国《大西洋月刊》（The Atlantic）2016年4月号刊登了记者Jeffrey Goldberg对美国总统奥巴马的长篇专访，其中有三段涉及中国。大意如下：

在未来几十年，哪个国家会是对美国的最大挑战？

“就传统大国关系看，我深信美中关系是最关键的。”奥巴马说。“如果我们处理妥当，中国继续和平崛起，那我们就有了一个实力不断增强，能与我们共同承担维护国际秩序责任的伙伴。但是，如果中国不以和平方式崛起，或者它没有走让其人民满意的道路，而被迫以民族主义为组织原则；或者它认为自己足够强大了，不需承担维持国际秩序的大国责任；或者它在这个世界上只想提升自己的地区影响力，那我们很可能会与中国发生冲突，我们应对其它的未来挑战也将更加困难。”

我注意到，许多人希望总统对中国更强硬些，尤其是在南中国海问题上。譬如希拉里·克林顿，有人听到她私下说，“我可不希望我的子孙们生活在一个由中国统治的世界里。”

奥巴马说，“我一直清晰地表明，一个衰败的、受威胁的中国，比一个成功崛起的中国更让我们忧虑。如果中国在某些地区危害国际利益，我们就必须坚决回应。你看我们在南中国海的作业，我们已成功发动了大部分亚洲（国家）来孤立中国，说实话，这让中国有些吃惊。强化（在这一地区）的同盟是符合美国利益的。”

原文如下：

What country does he consider the greatest challenge to America in the coming decades? “In terms of traditional great-state relations, I do believe that the relationship between the United States and China is going to be the most critical,” he said. “If we get that right and China continues on a peaceful rise, then we have a partner that is growing in capability and sharing with us the burdens and responsibilities of maintaining an international order. If China fails; if it is not able to maintain a trajectory that satisfies its population and has to resort to nationalism as an organizing principle; if it feels so overwhelmed that it never takes on the responsibilities of a country its size in maintaining the international order; if it views the world only in terms of regional spheres of influence—then not only do we see the potential for conflict with China, but we will find ourselves having more difficulty dealing with these other challenges that are going to come.”

Many people, I noted, want the president to be more forceful in confronting China, especially in the South China Sea. Hillary Clinton, for one, has been heard to say in private settings, “I don’t want my grandchildren to live in a world dominated by the Chinese.”

“I’ve been very explicit in saying that we have more to fear from a weakened, threatened China than a successful, rising China,” Obama said. “I think we have to be firm where China’s actions are undermining international interests, and if you look at how we’ve operated in the South China Sea, we have been able to mobilize most of Asia to isolate China in ways that have surprised China, frankly, and have very much served our interest in strengthening our alliances.”