AJARE | 农民的制约因素，政府支持和适应气候变化：来自中国广东省的证据【转】

Ying Xu, Christopher Findlay (2019), Farmers’ constraints, governmental support and climate change adaptation: Evidence from Guangdong Province, China. Aust J Agric Resour Econ, 63: 866-880. 

摘要简单翻译：

尽管气候变化得到了广泛认可，但对政府支持在适应中的作用却知之甚少。我们通过将适应过程建模为一个三阶段过程来缩小这一知识差距，在此过程中，农民可以依次确定：（i）是否需要适应过程；（ii）是否存在阻碍适应的制约因素；（iii）是否通过政府的支持消除了这些限制。我们开发了一个三重障碍模型来描述此决策过程，并使用来自中国广东省的农村住户调查从经验上评估了政府支持的影响。研究发现，政府的支持能未来国适应的机率约四分之一。这个数量级大于最近文献中的估计值，表明政府的支持对于受约束的农民更为有效。因此，为了获得具有成本效益的政策成果，有必要确定制约因素以及面临的制约因素。

Abstract

While climate change is widely acknowledged, the role of government support in adaptation is less understood. We narrow this knowledge gap by modelling adaptation as a three‐stage process where a farmer sequentially decides: (i) whether there is a need for adaptation; (ii) whether there are constraints that prevent adaptation; and (iii) whether such constraints are removed through government support. We develop a triple‐hurdle model to describe this decision‐making process and empirically estimate the impact of government support using a rural household survey from Guangdong Province, China. It is found that government support is positively associated with raising the odds of adaptation by about one quarter. This magnitude is larger than the estimates in recent literature, suggesting government support is more effective for farmers bound by constraints. Therefore, for cost‐effective policy outcomes there is a need to identify the constraints and the farmers facing them.

https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12321

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