本期精选JIA出版的"农业经济与管理"相关文章，所有文章在ScienceDirect平台开放获取，点击文章题目可查看全文。

Research and application of real-time monitoring and early warning thresholds for multi-temporal agricultural products information 
多时空农产品信息实时监测预警阈值确定与应用

XU Shi-wei, WANG Yu, WANG Sheng-wei, LI Jian-zheng

2020, 19(10): 2582-2596

农产品监测预警是有效防范农业生产、消费和价格风险的重要手段，特别是随着国家经济管理职能转变和国家农业发展形势变化，提升农产品监测预警及时性和正确性对于宏观经济决策具有十分重要的意义。农产品信息预警阈值是农产品监测预警的核心组成部分，如何合理确定多时空农产品信息预警阈值是实现实时动态监测预警手段的关键问题。应用多种统计学方法确定农产品生产、消费和价格信息的初级警限，并结合Delphi Method专家判断方法修正已确定的多时空农产品信息警限，本文选取2018年农产品监测信息与多时空农产品信息实时监测预警阈值进行比对，对其正确性进行验证，进而提出新时期中国多时空农产品信息实时监测预警阈值表，为国家宏观层面确定中国农产品生产、消费和价格监测预警提供对照标准，进一步提升中国农产品监测预警应用水平。

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Impact of cash crop cultivation on household income and migration decisions: Evidence from low-income regions in China 
经济作物种植对家庭收入和务工决策的影响：来自中国低收入地区的证据

LI Meng, Christopher GAN, Wanglin MA, Wei JIANG

2020, 19(10): 2571-2581

本研究使用中国低收入地区的调研数据，分析了经济作物种植对农户家庭收入和务工决策的影响。考虑到农民自己决定是否种植经济作物，本研究利用内生处理回归模型来解决这种选择偏差问题。结果表明，经济作物种植显著提高了农户家庭收入，但是对家庭务工决策影响不显著。结果还表明，经济作物种植会显著提高农户家庭的农业收入，但是会降低非农收入。

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China’s alfalfa market and imports: Development, trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations

中国苜蓿市场与进口：发展趋势及中美贸易争端的潜在影响

Qingbin WANG, ZOU Yang

2020, 19(4): 889-897

This study examines the development and trends of China's alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China's alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations. China's rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons (mmt) in 2018. While the United States dominated China's alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018. China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations. China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports.

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马铃薯保险在转移农业风险、促进马铃薯主粮战略中具有重要作用。了解农户对马铃薯保险属性的真实偏好对完善马铃薯保险具有重要意义。本研究通过选择实验设计了险种、产量损失最低赔付率、涵盖的作物类型数量、补贴后每亩年保费、理赔程序复杂度等保险产品属性，然后基于甘肃省定西市24个村共362份马铃薯农户的保险属性选择随机抽样调查数据，进行混合logit模型回归分析发现：(1)农户偏好多险种的农业保险，尤其包括抗产品价格下跌和投入成本增长在内的保险；(2)遭受过病虫害损失的农户愿意为高赔付率和涵盖多种作物的保险支付高额保费；纯农户和大农户偏好理赔程度复杂度低的保险。因此，新的马铃薯保险产品可考虑针对如受过农业灾害的、不同生产规模的不同农户群体进行设计。

Moving beyond the opposition of diverse knowledge systems for food security and nutrition

Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) is influenced by diverse and complex factors, and therefore requires a holistic approach to agriculture and food systems plus integration of knowledge from diverse sources in science and society. Using the results of a colloquium held at the University of Hohenheim (Germany) in September 2016 leading up to the recent High Level Panel of Experts (HLPE) Note on Critical and Emerging Issues for Food Security and Nutrition, this article underlines the role of research and innovation as a social and political process and draws attention to neglected types of knowledge. It illustrates the potential of knowledge co-production and co-innovation to transform food systems in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Maize production under risk: The simultaneous adoption of off-farm income diversification and agricultural credit to manage risk

风险下的玉米生产：同时采用非农收入多元化和农业信贷来管理风险

Shoaib Akhtar, LI Gu-cheng, Adnan Nazir, Amar Razzaq, Raza Ullah, Muhammad Faisal, Muhammad Asad Ur Rehman Naseer, Muhammad Haseeb Raza

2019, 18 (2): 460-470

Farmers in Pakistan continue to produce maize under various types of risks and adopt several strategies to manage those risks. This study is the first attempt to investigate the factors affecting the concurrent adoption of off-farm income diversification and agricultural credit which the farmers use to manage the risk to maize production. We apply bivariate and multinomial probit approaches to the primary data collected from four districts of Punjab Province in Pakistan. The results show that strong correlations exist between the off-farm diversification and agricultural credit which indicates that the use of one risk management strategy leads to another. The findings demonstrate that education, livestock number, maize farming experience, perceptions of biological risks and risk-averse nature of the growers significantly encourage the adoption of diversification as a risk management tool while farm size inversely affects the adoption of diversification. Similarly, in the adoption equation of credit, maize farming experience, farm size, perceptions of price and biological risks and risk attitude of farmers significantly enhance the chances of adopting agricultural credit to manage farm risks. These findings are important for the relevant stakeholders who seek to offer carefully designed risk minimizing options to the maize farmers. 

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Factors affecting the adoption of on-farm milk safety measures in Northern China - An examination from the perspective of farm size and production type

中国北方奶农采纳生鲜乳质量安全标准措施的影响因素分析——基于养殖规模和生产组织方式的视角

YANG Xin-ran, Kevin Z. Chen, KONG Xiang-zhi

2019, 18 (2): 471-481

现阶段养殖规模少于100头的奶牛存栏量约占全国总存栏量的50％。“三聚氰胺”事件以来，生鲜乳质量安全水平成为奶业健康发展的关键点。采纳生鲜乳标准生产措施是确保质量安全水平的重要途径，这些措施在很大程度上并非强制性的。课题组在中国内蒙古自治区的调研数据显示，小规模养殖户平均采纳了约48%的生鲜乳质量安全措施。本文应用泊松回归模型研究养殖户采纳标准生产措施的影响因素。实证结果显示：与小规模散养奶农相比，养殖小区和规模化牧场采纳了更多的生鲜乳质量安全标准措施；养殖规模是影响奶农采纳标准措施的重要因素。因此，随着奶业生产结构的不断变化，鼓励奶农由家庭散养模式向规模化牧场转型，能够促使奶农采取更多的质量安全标准措施。本研究为规模化养殖模式在增加奶农采纳标准生产措施和减少奶业质量安全事故方面的作用提供了实证支撑。 

Is the feminization of labor harmful to agricultural production? The decision-making and production control perspective

劳动力女性化不利于农业生产吗？——基于家庭农业生产决策权与管理权分配的视角

2019, 18 (6): 1392-1401

学界关于农业劳动力女性化对农业生产的影响争论至今。本文从劳动力“是否参与决策”和“是否参与生产”两个维度，将农业生产类型细分为“男女共同决策，共同生产”的传统型，“男性决策，女性生产”的非彻底农业劳动力女性化型和“女性决策，女性生产”的彻底农业劳动力女性化型，考察在农业劳动力女性化过程中，“生产决策权”与“生产管理权”分合对农业生产发展的影响。利用农业部固定观察点2004-2008年追踪调查数据，并构建非观测效应综列数据模型进行检验。研究表明，与传统生产类型和彻底农业劳动力女性化型相比，非彻底的农业劳动力女性化在粮食单产和技术进步上都呈显著的负作用。农业劳动力女性化并不一定会对农业生产产生负面影响，特别是随着重体力劳动越来越被农业机械和外包服务替代，而农业生产决策权和管理权是否统一是劳动力性化会否产生负面影响的重要条件之一。

Do farmers care about climate change? Evidence from five major grain producing areas of China

2019, 18 (6): 1402-1414

基于五个粮食主产区1350个农户调研资料，用logistic模型实证分析了农民对气候变化的认知以及它的影响因素。研究结果表明：第一，农民对长期气温变化和长期降水变化的认知存在明显的差异，具体来说，有57.4%的调查农民能够正确认知长期气温的变化，只有29.7%的调查农民能够正确认知长期降水的变化；第二，影响农民长期气温变化的因素和长期降水变化的因素几乎完全相反，前者几乎是与农业有关的因素，后者几乎是与非农业有关的因素（除耕地规模以外）；第三，同假设预期不同，农民并非更关注生产季节长期降水量的变化，因为只有不到30%的农户能够准确认知长期降水的变化。要提高农民对气候变化认知的准确性，作者建议：坚强农民教育和生产技术培训工作；加速土地流转，扩大土地经营规模；发展各种农民专业合作经济组织；加强农村基础设施投资，特别是在粮食主产去的投资；改善农业生产环境，增加农民收入。

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Technical efficiency of hybrid maize growers: A stochastic frontier model approach

Imad Ali, HUO Xue-xi, Imran Khan, Hashmat Ali, Khan Baz, Sufyan Ullah Khan

2019, 18 (10): 2408-2421

This study investigated the effect of credit constraints and credit unconstraints on the technical efficiency of hybrid maize growers in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPK) of Pakistan. The primary data were collected by a direct elicitation method from 510 maize growers of KPK Province. Stochastic frontier model techniques were used for technical efficiency analyses. The results revealed that the mean technical efficiency difference between the two groups was 10.2%. The results of technical inefficiency effect modeling demonstrated that education of the household head, family size, number of married family members, off-farm income, farming experience, tractor drill, water irrigation through a lined course, certified seed, extension services, household saving variables, and a credit size variable had positive effects on technical efficiency for both credit constrained farmers (CCFs) and credit unconstrained farmers (UCCFs). In addition, age of household head and fragmented land values had negative effects on technical efficiency for both groups. However, the interest rate had positive and negative impacts on the technical efficiency of CCFs and UCCFs, respectively. Our results have significant implications for policies related to land use, interest rate, and banking sector expansion in the rural areas of Pakistan.

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More children nutrition distribution, less labor incentive: Evidence from Chinese collective agriculture

更多的儿童营养分配，更少的劳动激励：中国集体农业的证据

HUANG Ying-wei, MAO Pei, LI Jun

2019, 18 (10): 2422-2433

分配制度对劳动供给的影响是一个热点问题。本文利用中国集体化时期非常独特的微观数据库来证明平均主义分配制度是这一时期劳动激励不足的主要原因之一。具体来讲，在基本口粮分配中，相对于成年人来说，分配给儿童(1-3岁和4-7岁)的比例往往超过他们自身对营养的需求，结果导致那些拥有更多劳动力和更少儿童的家庭的不满，从而他们减少了劳动投入。同时，由于欠账制度的存在，致使用工分去“买”分配物制度实行困难，这是中国集体农业劳动激励不足的重要影响机制。计量结果通过多重稳健性检验，证明结果的稳健性。这一研究对理解分配制度与劳动激励和中国集体农业失效提供帮助。

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Farm size and fertilizer sustainable use: An empirical study in Jiangsu, China

2019, 18 (12): 2898-2909

化肥的低效使用在中国引起了严重的环境问题，并影响农业的可持续发展。为了能够在减少生态破坏的基础上应对未来日益增长的粮食需求，中国在2015年提出化肥使用量零增长行动方案。与此同时，中国正在国内积极推进农业适度规模经营，大规模农户的数量得以提高。在此背景下，经营规模的扩张是否有利于化肥使用效率的提高是一个值得探讨的问题，本文将系统讨论化肥使用效率和经营规模的关系。利用江苏省2004到2016年4281个农户的调研数据，文章采用随机前沿生产函数测算了不同规模农户的化肥使用效率，并分析了规模对化肥使用效率的影响。研究发现：（1）总体样本的平均化肥使用效率仅为0.6，远低于平均农业技术效率，化肥过量使用的问题突出；（2）规模最小分组中农户的化肥使用效率最高，文章对经营规模和化肥使用效率的负向关系给出了可能的解释。

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Farmers using insurance and cooperatives to manage agricultural risks: A case study of the swine industry in China

2019, 18 (12): 2910-2918

购买农业保险和加入合作社是中国农户应对农业风险的两类常用工具。利用江苏省和河南省的443户生猪养殖户数据，分析影响养殖户购买保险和加入合作社的因素，并考虑同时使用两类工具的可能性以及两种决策之间的潜在关联。研究结果表明，养殖户购买保险的决策和加入合作社的决策是正相关的，农业保险主要用于帮助养殖户分担生产风险，合作社更倾向于分担市场风险，出于互补性等因素的考虑，购买保险的养殖户更有可能加入合作社，反之亦然。此外，养殖户对农业保险的认知和对地方政府的信任对其购买保险产生积极影响，受教育程度，从事生猪养殖的年限和生猪养殖规模则对养殖户加入合作社产生积极影响。

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