马旺林 祝仲坤 周晓时：中国的农业机械化与农田弃耕

Ma, Wanglin, ZhongkunZhu, and Xiaoshi Zhou. "Agricultural mechanization and cropland abandonment in rural China." Applied Economics Letters (2021):1-8.

作者：马旺林，祝仲坤，周晓时

摘要：本研究基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据，研究了三种机械化耕作策略（无机械化、半机械化和全机械化）对弃耕的影响。本文利用多值处理效应模型来解决样本选择偏差问题。结果表明，与无机械化耕作相比，采用半机械化耕作增加了农田弃耕的可能性。然而，相对于无机械化或半机械化耕作，采用全机械化耕作显著降低了农田弃耕的可能性。因此，农民的弃耕决策取决于机械化能否部分或完全替代农业劳动力。我们的结果表明，研发与规模、地形相适应的农机来促进农业机械化和加强土地流转来推动农地整合，都有助于减缓农田弃耕问题。

Abstract: This study examines the impacts of the adoption of three mechanized farming strategies (no-mechanized, semi-mechanized, and full-mechanized farming) on cropland abandonment, using the 2016 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey data. An innovative multivalued treatment effects model is employed to address sample selection bias. The results show that relative to no-mechanized farming, the adoption of semi-mechanized farming increases the probability of cropland abandonment. However, relative to either no or semi-mechanized farming, the adoption of full-mechanized farming significantly decreases the likelihood of cropland abandonment. Thus, farmers’ decisions of cropland abandonment depend on whether mechanization can partially or fully substitute farm labour. Our findings suggest that promoting agricultural mechanization via scale and topography-appropriate farm machines and enhancing land transfer for consolidation can help alleviate cropland abandonment.

原文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：

https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1875113

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