杨进 万千 吴比 | 非农就业和粮食生产变化:来自中国的新证据
*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译,可能存在部分错误,请以英文为准
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作者:杨进,华中科技大学经济学院
万千,厦门大学王亚南经济研究院
吴比,农业农村部农村经济研究中心
摘要:
非农就业如何影响谷物生产? 先前的研究结果不一致。 本文提供了一个一般的理论框架来解释非农就业对粮食生产的影响,并认为这种影响不是线性的。 实证结果表明,非农就业减少了粮食生产,并没有显着改变粮食作物的结构。 重要的是,我们发现非农就业与谷物生产之间存在倒U型相关性,这意味着当非农劳动力供给相对较低时,非农就业将增加谷物产量,而当非农劳动力供给相对较高时,农业就业将会降低谷物产量。 此外,我们调查了非农就业目的地、家庭土地面积、土地特征、家庭所在地和家庭老龄化的因果效应的异质性。
Abstract
How does off-farm employment affect grain production? Previous research findings are inconsistent. This paper provides a general theoretical framework to explain the effect of off-farm employment on grain production and consider that the effect is non-liner. The empirical results show that off-farm employment decreases grain production and insignificantly changes grain crop structure. Importantly, we find an inverted-U correlation between off-farm employment and grain production, meaning that off-farm employment will increase grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively low and will decrease grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively high. Further, we investigate the heterogeneity of the causal effect in the destinations of off-farm employment, household's land scale, land features, household location, and household aging.
原文链接(点击“阅读原文”跳转):
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101519
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