《Agricultural Economics》2022年第54卷第1期目录及摘要

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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/15740862/2023/54/1

Rural Bangladeshi consumers’ (un)willingness to pay for low-milled rice: Implications for zinc biofortification

Caitlin L. Herrington,  Mywish K. Maredia,  David L. Ortega,  Victor Taleon,  Ekin Birol,  Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar,  Md Shajedur Rahaman

Modeling intensification decisions in the Kilombero Valley floodplain: A Bayesian belief network approach

Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan,  Thomas Heckelei,  Sebastian Rasch

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Nathan P. Hendricks,  Aaron Smith,  Nelson B. Villoria,  Matthieu Stigler

Structural transformation away from agriculture in growing open economies

Kym Anderson,  Sundar Ponnusamy

Delayed monsoon, irrigation and crop yields

Hardeep Singh Amale,  Pratap Singh Birthal,  Digvijay Singh Negi

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

Noé J. Nava,  William Ridley,  Sandy Dall'erba

Risk effects of GM corn: Evidence from crop insurance outcomes and high-dimensional methods

Serkan Aglasan,  Barry K. Goodwin,  Roderick M. Rejesus

How convergent are rice export prices in the international market?

Harold Glenn A. Valera,  Mark J. Holmes,  Valerien O. Pede,  Jean Balié

Rural Bangladeshi consumers’ (un)willingness to pay for low-milled rice: Implications for zinc biofortification

Caitlin L. Herrington     Mywish K. Maredia    David L. Ortega    Victor Taleon     Ekin Birol     Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar      Md Shajedur Rahaman

Abstract: Zinc deficiency is a severe public health problem in Bangladesh. We examine the effects of nutritional information on rural consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for two ways to increase zinc intake through rice, the main staple crop–low-milling that gives rice grains a distinctive light brown color (a visible trait) and sets it apart from the culturally preferred high-milled white rice grain and biofortification of rice with increased zinc content (an invisible trait), which is also low-milled to retain maximum zinc content. Results of our economic experiments suggest that with nutritional information, consumers are willing to pay a premium of 4.6% for zinc biofortified rice compared to non-biofortified rice, when milled at the same level. However, results confirm the strong preference for high-milled rice by Bangladeshi consumers who discounted low-milled rice by 8%–10% even after receiving information on the nutritional benefits of biofortified or low-milled rice. We find that consumers’ WTP for the two high-zinc-low-milled rice types (biofortified and non-biofortified) is positively correlated with being a female, more educated, belonging to households engaged in non-farm activities and with children under 5 years of age. Results point to the importance of nutritional awareness campaigns for increasing zinc biofortified and low-milled rice consumption and guiding the targeting strategy for such campaigns. Given the consumer preference for high-milled rice, this study also points to the need for exploring the rice fortification strategy to address the challenge of malnutrition.

Modeling intensification decisions in the Kilombero Valley floodplain: A Bayesian belief network approach

Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan    Thomas Heckelei     Sebastian Rasch

Abstract: The Kilombero Valley floodplain in Tanzania is a major agricultural area. Government initiatives and projects supported by international funding have long sought to boost productivity. Due to increasing population pressure, smallholder farmers are forced to increase their output. Nevertheless, the level of intensification is still lower than what is considered necessary to increase production and support smallholder livelihoods significantly. This article aims to better understand farmers’ intensification choices and their interdependent determinants. We propose a novel modeling approach for identifying determinants of intensification and their interrelationships by combining a Bayesian belief network (BBN), experimental design, and multivariate regression trees. Our approach complements existing lower-dimensional statistical models by considering uncertainty and providing an easily updatable model structure. The BBN is constructed and calibrated using data from a survey of 304 farm households. Our findings show how the data-driven BBN approach can be used to identify variables that influence farmers’ decision to choose one technique over another. Furthermore, the most important drivers vary widely, depending on the intensification options being considered.

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Nathan P. Hendricks     Aaron Smith      Nelson B. Villoria     Matthieu Stigler

Abstract: Incentives in agriculture are highly distorted. It has long been argued that these distortions were a key explanation for differences in supply and productivity across countries, but the empirical evidence is limited. We revisit this issue using data on policy distortions across 63 countries for the period 1961–2011. We estimate the effects of differential changes in agricultural distortions across countries on supply and productivity. We highlight concerns in our analysis and previous work about endogeneity that biases the estimated effect downward—countries that lose comparative advantage are likely to increase support for agriculture. We address these concerns by including country and region-time fixed effects, along with a rich set of controls. Overall, we find evidence that enhanced incentives through policy changes can increase the rate of production growth, with about half of the increase due to productivity increases. This result is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where anti-agricultural policies on exports were reduced and in Europe where pro-agricultural policies on imports were reduced, driven largely by external pressure. Endogeneity appears to be strongest in Asia where countries have followed the typical pattern of raising support for agriculture during industrialization due to a rising farm-urban income gap.

Structural transformation away from agriculture in growing open economies

Kym Anderson     Sundar Ponnusamy

Abstract: Understanding how and why economies structurally transform away from agriculture as they grow is crucial for developing sensible growth strategies and farm and food policies. Typically, analysts who study this and related structural change issues focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. This article draws on trade theory to focus as well on exports. It also notes that the trade costs of some products are too high at early stages of development to make international trade profitable, so a nontradables sector is recognized. The general equilibrium model presented in the theory section provides hypotheses about structural transformation in differently endowed open economies as they grow. Those hypotheses are tested econometrically with a new annual endowments dataset covering 1995–2018 for more than 130 countries. The results are consistent with long run de-agriculturalization in the course of national economic growth in terms not only of sectoral shares of GDP and employment but also of exports. We find those shares are not significantly affected by either differences across countries in relative factor endowments or relative rates of sectoral assistance from government; but the agricultural GDP and employment shares are higher the higher is the share of agriculture in national exports.

Delayed monsoon, irrigation and crop yields

Hardeep Singh Amale     Pratap Singh Birthal     Digvijay Singh Negi

Abstract: Most of the empirical literature assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture has modeled crop yields as a function of the levels or deviations in the growing-period rainfall. However, an aspect that has received little attention in the empirical literature relates to the relationship between the timing of monsoon rains and crop yields. Using a pan-India district-level panel dataset for 50 years, this article investigates two interrelated issues critical to understanding the impacts of weather-induced agricultural risks and their management. It first examines the impact of the timing of monsoon onset on crop yields and then assesses the role of irrigation in mitigating its effects. The article finds that the delayed onset of monsoon is detrimental to crops, and its effects are realized beyond the rainy season. The findings also demonstrate that irrigation helps mitigate the harmful effects of delayed monsoon. Finally, to link these findings to farm-level adjustments, the article shows that farmers explicitly adjust the timing of irrigation in response to delays in monsoon rains.

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

Noé J. Nava     William Ridley     Sandy Dall'erba

Abstract: We adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri-food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state-level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost-adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.

Risk effects of GM corn: Evidence from crop insurance outcomes and high-dimensional methods

Serkan Aglasan     Barry K. Goodwin     Roderick M. Rejesus

Abstract: This study evaluates whether genetically modified (GM) corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits (GM-RW) have lower yield risk. A crop insurance actuarial performance measure, the loss cost ratio (LCR), is used to represent yield risk. High-dimensional methods are utilized in this study to maintain parsimony in the empirical specification, and facilitate estimation. Specifically, we employ the Cluster-Lasso (cluster-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) procedure. This method produces uniformly valid inference on the main variable of interest (i.e., the GM-RW variable) in a high-dimensional panel data setting even in the presence of heteroskedastic, non-Gaussian, and clustered error structures. After controlling for a large set of potential weather confounders using Cluster-Lasso, we find consistent evidence that GM corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits have lower yield risk.

How convergent are rice export prices in the international market?

Harold Glenn A. Valera     Mark J. Holmes     Valerien O. Pede     Jean Balié

Abstract: This study revisits the issue of long-term price convergence of rice export prices for India, Pakistan, Thailand, Uruguay, the United States, and Vietnam using a two-stage pairwise unit root testing approach. To deduce evidence or lack of proof of convergence in price series, we also examine convergence using sigma and beta convergence specified in both unconditional and conditional frameworks. The methodology used is driven by the need to address three key concerns: (i) the likelihood of finding stationary price differentials, (ii) the magnitude of these differentials, and (iii) their speed of adjustment. To evaluate these concerns, we use monthly data for 18 price series drawn from these six countries from September 2011 to February 2021. The evidence points to a lack of international convergence. This gives rise to the possibility that a shield from a general downward export price trend is already in place for some exporters. Furthermore, we find that the likelihood of convergence is greater between pairs of price series that are characterized as high quality or having the same country of origin or having similar market share. Evidence also suggests that a converged pairing is more likely to have a smaller price differential if both price series are for low-quality rice.

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编辑：秦运兰

审核：龙文进