Quantcast

편의점 샛별이 5화

人间怪事!刚要检查!各地粮库纷纷起火

深度解读 | 姜文《让子弹飞》

편의점 샛별이 7화

高考第二天 北京零分作文轰动全国

Facebook Twitter

分享到微信朋友圈

点击图标下载本文截图到手机
即可分享到朋友圈。如何使用?

为了鼓励更多的人参与到自由互联网的开发,我们最新推出了GreatFire悬赏计划,请参赛者在下列任务中任选其中一个或多个,完成其中的任务目标,即可获得对应金额的奖励。
查看原文

世界观|《经济学人》:土耳其的命运,全靠夹在美俄欧之间的埃尔多安

2016-08-30 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩
 

本期导读:当前世界舞台上,最能吸引眼球、最能制造话题的国家领导人,倒不在几个关键大国,而在特定的几个中小国家。近段时间,最引人注目的非土耳其总统埃尔多安莫属


去年底击落俄罗斯战机让整个世界震惊,几个月前拿叙利亚难民做筹码向欧盟狮子大张口漫天要价,上个月发生莫名其妙的未遂政变后进行国内大清洗,受到西方国家谴责后又立马向俄罗斯抛出橄榄枝,短短几个月里的这一系列动作,没有一个不受到全球媒体的关注,也没有一个不与土耳其总统埃尔多安密切相关。


这样看来,埃尔多安的“能量”还真是不小,也因此,土耳其国内政治的走向以及土耳其在地区乃至全球范围内搅动起来的阵阵涟漪,自然都与埃尔多安有着千丝万缕的联系。


不过,不管埃尔多安的能量有多大,也不管他怎么折腾,想要重新找回往日奥斯曼帝国享受到的那份荣光,都只能说,他是在做白日梦,因为,当前由美欧中俄四大力量牢牢框定住的世界格局,不是谁想动就能动得了的。


有句话说得好,瘦死的骆驼比马大,换个角度看就是,再肥的马也没骆驼大



《世界政治中的埃尔多安》

 

 跳虱乱蹦墙头草,

梁木难成一身㞞 ;

小戏不断尽缭乱,

丑相百出让人蒙。



Turkey and the West

土耳其与西方的关系

 


Don’t lose the plot

别被花哨把戏蒙蔽了你的双眼

别让波折剧情打乱了你的阵脚


How to manage relations with NATO’s most awkward member

北约成员国里,最作的莫过土耳其,那该如何处理好与它的关系呢?


IT IS hard to dissuade people from believing conspiracy theories, especially when there really has been a conspiracy. The attempted coup in Turkey on July 15th involved thousands of members of the armed forces. Encouraged by their government, many Turks seem to believe that the West—in particular America—had a hand in it. Relations have soured and Turkey has taken to demanding that Western countries demonstrate they are on its side. Turkey is a NATO ally and, notwithstanding a spate of recent terrorist attacks, a bastion of relative stability in a region racked by war. Western countries want to keep it that way. This week America’s vice-president, Joe Biden, visited Ankara as a gesture of goodwill. Beyond his offer of soothing words, what more should the West do?  

要让人们不要相信阴谋论,这个事儿有点难,特别是当真的有阴谋发生的时候。7月15日土耳其发生的未遂政变,已牵涉上万名军队系统人员。多亏了土耳其政府的鼓动,很多土耳其国民已相信,西方国家,特别是美国,与政变脱不了干系。西方国家与土耳其的关系随之驱冷,土耳其也已要求西方国家,应与土政府站在一起。作为北约成员国的土耳其,尽管最近经历了系列恐怖袭击,但对那个战事频仍的地区来说,依然是区域稳定的一座堡垒,而西方国家也无意改变这种状态。本周美国副总统拜登到访安卡拉,便是意在向埃尔多安传达一种善意。不过,除了给土耳其说一些好听的话之外,西方还应再做些什么呢?
 

1.plot [plɒt] n. 情节;图;阴谋;vt. 密谋;绘图;划分;标绘;vi. 密谋;策划;绘制。

2.lose the plot:lose one's ability to understand or cope with what is happening,失去明辨情形的能力,失去处理状况的能力。

3.awkward ['ɔkwɚd]  adj. 尴尬的;笨拙的;棘手的;不合适的。

4.conspiracy [kən'spɪrəsi]   n. 阴谋;共谋;阴谋集团。

5.spate [speit]   n. 洪水;一阵;大雨;突然迸发。

6.bastion ['bæstɪən]  n. 堡垒;棱堡。

7.rack [ræk]   n. [机] 齿条;架子;拷问台;vi. 变形;随风飘;小步跑;vt. 折磨;榨取。

8.soothing ['sʊðɪŋ]   adj. 抚慰的;使人宽心的;v. 安慰;减轻痛苦(soothe的现在分词)。


Tone it down

调门该降就要降
 

Turkey’s attempted coup shocked an already tense society. At least 240 people were killed, and the country narrowly averted a disastrous military takeover. The plot was led in part by followers of the Gulen movement, a secretive Muslim sect that runs a global network of schools, charities and businesses and has infiltrated the Turkish state. It is only natural that Turks should be determined to identify and punish the conspirators.

土耳其突如其来的政变,让本已紧张的国内社会雪上加霜。到目前为止,已导致至少240人丧命,整个国家也差点儿重回军人统治。政变领导人中一部分来自穆斯林派别葛兰运动,该派别在世界范围内很多地区办有学校、慈善机构以及商业公司,且该派别势力早已渗入土耳其的国家政权体系之中。土耳其下决心对那些反叛势力进行打击,这也很是在理。
 

1.avert [ə'vɝt]   vt. 避免,防止;转移。

2.Gulen movement:葛兰运动

3.secretive ['sɪkrətɪv]   adj. 秘密的;偷偷摸摸的;促进分泌的。

4.sect [sɛkt]  n. 宗派。

5.infiltrate [ɪn'fɪltret]  vt. 使潜入;使渗入,使浸润;vi. 渗入;n. 渗透物。

6.conspirator [kən'spɪrətɚ]   n. 阴谋者;反叛者;同谋者。


Yet rather than focus on those directly involved, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched a vast crackdown on anyone with Gulenist ties, as well as on other opponents of his governing Justice and Development (AK) party. Over 80,000 people, including judges, businesspeople, journalists and academics, have been purged. Mr Erdogan speaks darkly of a “higher mind” directing both the coup and the other threats Turkey faces, including an insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and bombings carried out by Islamic State (IS). The purges have enormous support, even among secular Turks who oppose Mr Erdogan’s Islamist policies.

但是,总统埃尔多安的打击目标,除了与政变有直接关系的人之外,还拓展到了与葛兰主义有关的所有人员,以及他所掌管的执政党“正发党”的反对党派。到目前为止,已有超过8万名人士被清洗,其中有法官、商人、记者以及学者。埃尔多安还暗指,有“更高头目”在操控政变与土耳其面临的威胁,包括“库尔德工人党”所进行的暴乱活动以及“伊斯兰国”所实施的恐怖袭击。大规模的清洗也得到了广泛支持,支持者中甚至也不乏对埃尔多安伊斯兰政策持反对意见的世俗主义者。
 

1.purge [pɝdʒ]   vi. 净化;通便;vt. 净化;清洗;通便;n. 净化;泻药。

2.darkly ['dɑrkli]   adv. 黑暗地;模糊地;阴郁地;秘密地。

3.insurgency [ɪn'sɝdʒənsi]   n. 叛乱;暴动;叛乱状态。

4.secular ['sɛkjəlɚ]   adj. 世俗的;长期的;现世的;不朽的;n. 修道院外的教士,(对宗教家而言的) 俗人。


Mindful of Mr Erdogan’s authoritarian bent, Western leaders tempered condemnation of the mutiny with warnings against the ensuing crackdown even as Turks were celebrating the survival of civilian rule and voicing fear of the Gulenists. Stung by the criticism, Turkey’s pro-government media have claimed, preposterously, that America must have been behind the coup. Polls suggest that most Turks believe them.

西方国家对埃尔多安的集权倾向早有警觉,也因此缓和了批评政变的调门,同时还对政变之后的大清洗进行了警告,尽管土耳其国民当时正在庆祝民选政府的胜利并表达对葛兰主义势力的愤慨。一听到西方国家的批评声音,土耳其亲政府媒体便立马宣称,美国肯定在背后给政变提供了支持,民调显示,多数土耳其人也相信这种说法。
 

1.mindful ['maɪndfl]   adj. 留心的;记住的;警觉的。

2.authoritarian [ə,θɔrə'tɛrɪən]   adj. 独裁主义的;权力主义的;n. 权力主义者;独裁主义者。

3.bent [bɛnt]   n. 爱好,嗜好;adj. 弯曲的;决心的。

4.temper ['tɛmpɚ]  n. 脾气;(钢等)回火;性情;倾向;vt./vi. 回火;锻炼;调和;缓和。

5.condemnation [,kɑndɛm'neʃən]  n. 谴责;定罪;非难的理由;征用.

6.mutiny ['mjutəni]  n. 兵变;叛乱;暴动;vi. 反叛;暴动;参加叛乱。

7.ensue [ɪn'su]   vi. 跟着发生,接着发生;继起;vt. 追求。

8.preposterously [pri'pɔstərəsli]   adv. 荒谬地;不合理地。


Such paranoia is dangerous, and not only because it could accelerate Turkey’s drift into autocracy. Mr Erdogan has made overtures to Vladimir Putin and hinted at a realignment towards Russia and Iran. He is demanding that America extradite Fethullah Gulen, the inspiration behind the movement, who has been in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania since 1999 and whom he accuses of masterminding the plot against him. Turkey’s justice minister, Bekir Bozdag, says extradition is a political test: is America for Turkey or against it?

这种不负责任的言论是很危险的,不仅仅因为这可能会加快土耳其转向独裁的步伐。埃尔多安已有所行动,想要变成土耳其的普京,且有迹象显示埃尔多安正向俄罗斯与伊朗靠近。埃尔多安称,1999年自愿逃亡美国的法土拉•葛兰,是政变事件的幕后策划者,并要求美国引渡葛兰。土耳其司法部部长贝基尔•博兹达表示,能否引渡葛兰是一块试金石,将能证明美国是不是与土耳其站在一起
 

1.paranoia [,pærə'nɔɪə]   n. [心理] 偏执狂,[内科] 妄想狂。

2.drift [drɪft]   n. 漂流,漂移;趋势;漂流物;vi. 漂流,漂移;漂泊;vt. 使…漂流;使…受风吹积。

3.overture ['ovətʃʊr]   n. 前奏曲;提案;序幕;vt. 提议;为……奏前奏曲。

4.hint [hɪnt]   n. 暗示;线索;vt. 暗示;示意;vi. 示意。

5.realignment [,riə'laɪnmənt]   n. 重新排列;重新组合;改组。

6.extradite ['ekstrədaɪt]   vt. 引渡;获取…的引渡。

7.mastermind ['mæstəmaɪnd]  vt. 策划;n. 优秀策划者;才子。


Turkey likewise wants European governments to help track down Gulenists among their Turkish populations. Turkey also wants progress on granting its citizens visa-free travel to the European Union’s Schengen zone, part of the deal the two sides struck in March to control the flow of Syrian refugees. But that requires Turkey to reform its laws on terrorism, tricky amid a security crackdown. Meanwhile, clashes have broken out in Europe between backers of Mr Gulen and of Mr Erdogan. Anti-Muslim populists have exploited the tensions. Austria’s chancellor has demanded that Turkey’s accession talks to the EU be halted; Turkey has recalled its ambassador to Vienna.

与此同时,土耳其也想要欧洲各国帮着打击各自国内的葛兰主义分子,并想要欧盟在给予土耳其国民申根免签待遇方面有所进展,免签待遇问题是双方三月份签署的叙利亚难民管控协议的一部分。但土耳其若想获得免签待遇,则需对其反恐法律进行修改,短期内,这显然有点难办,因为,当前土耳其正对威胁国内安全的势力进行打击。而且,欧洲那边,葛兰的支持者与埃尔多安的支持者之间也已开撕,这使得反穆斯林的民粹主义者从中有所渔利。奥地利总理就要求,土耳其的入欧谈判应该暂停,因为此事,土耳其还召回了驻维也纳的大使
 

1.tricky ['trɪkɪ]   adj. 狡猾的;机警的。

2.exploit [ɪk'splɔɪt]   vt. 开发,开拓;剥削;开采;n. 勋绩;功绩。

3.halt [hɔlt]   vi. 停止;立定;踌躇,犹豫;n. 停止;立定;休息;vt. 使停止;使立定。


It is a mess, but two thoughts should guide the West. One is that, just as it wants Turkey to observe the law, so it must follow due process itself. Extradition is a matter for the judiciary, not for politicians or intelligence agencies. If Turkey can provide solid evidence against Mr Gulen that was not collected under duress, he should be extradited; if not, then he should remain in Pennsylvania. Similarly, Europe should honour its promises. If Turkey brings its terrorism laws into line with EU standards and meets the other conditions in the migrant deal, its people should be granted visa-free travel. Until it does, however, the EU should wait.

形容目前状况仅需一个词儿:一团糟。不过,西方国家需要搞清楚两点一个是,想要土耳其遵守法律的话,那它就必须按照既定的程序走。引渡问题是司法问题,不是政治问题,也不是情报问题。若土耳其能提供针对葛兰的充分证据,且相关证据不是通过威胁强迫的方式所取得的,那么就得引渡葛兰,否则的话,葛兰还可以留在美国。同样,欧盟也应遵守承诺,若土耳其按欧盟标准对其反恐法律进行了修改,并且也履行了移民协议中的相关条款,那么,就应该给予土耳其国民免签待遇,不过,在土耳其满足所有这些条件之前,免签待遇则应缓缓。
 

1.observe [əb'zɝv]  vt. 庆祝;vt. 观察;遵守;说;注意到;评论;vi. 观察;说;注意到;评论。

2.due [djuː]   adj. 到期的;预期的;应付的;应得的;n. 应付款;应得之物;adv. 正(置于方位词前)。

3.solid ['sɒlɪd]   adj. 固体的;可靠的;立体的;结实的;一致的;n. 固体;立方体。

4.duress [du'rɛs]  n. 强迫;监禁。


Second, the West should cleave to its principles, urging Mr Erdogan to seek pluralism and strong institutions rather than an all-powerful presidency. Instead of attempting to bolster his position with ethnic Turks by stirring up antipathy towards the Kurds, Mr Erdogan should return to the search for peace.

另一个是,西方国家应坚持原则,要求埃尔多安走多元主义道路,加强社会制度的建设、强化社会机构的功能,不能让他变成一个集权总统,也不能允许埃尔多安利用煽动对库尔德人的仇恨来提高自己在土耳其人中的地位,而应让其重回民族和解之路。
 

1.cleave [kliːv]   vi. 裂开;披荆斩棘地前进;粘住;坚持;vt. 砍开;使分开;打通。

2.pluralism ['plʊər(ə)lɪz(ə)m]   n. 多元主义;多元论;兼任。

3.stir [stɝ]   n. 搅拌;轰动;vt. 搅拌;激起;惹起;vi. 搅动;传播;走动。

4.antipathy [æn'tɪpəθi]   n. 反感;厌恶;憎恶;不相容。


Turkey allied to Iran and Russia, rather than NATO, would be weaker. Even as Mr Biden was visiting Ankara, Turkish forces were entering Syria under NATO air cover to attack the jihadists of IS. Russia could not provide the same support. The truth is, Turkey needs the West and the West needs Turkey, no matter how infuriating its leader.

一个抛弃北约倒向伊朗与俄罗斯的土耳其,其地位将不会如目前这般强势。就在拜登访问安卡拉之时,土耳其军队还在北约空军的掩护下,进入叙利亚对伊斯兰国圣战分子进行了打击,俄罗斯向土耳其是提供不了这样的支持的。当前的现实状况是,土耳其需要西方,西方也需要土耳其。不管埃尔多安如何恼怒,抑或他多么令人恼怒,都改变不了这个现实


1.infuriating [ɪn'fjʊərɪeɪtɪŋ]  adj. 令人大怒的;v. 使发怒(infuriate的ing形式)。


注:

1:本文为原创,若发现不错,欢迎转发与朋友共享,转载请注明出处。

2:英文原文转自《经济学人》,非商业用途,仅限个人学习之目的。

3:若有任何问题,欢迎与本公众号联系进行沟通。

4:关注可搜索 我与我们的世界 或 meandourworld 也可扫描下方二维码:



文章有问题?点此查看未经处理的缓存