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天下大势|《经济学人》:全球化浪潮浩浩荡荡,顺之者昌,逆之者亡

2016-10-08 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读:人们的日常生活中,“全球化”早已不是什么新鲜词儿自第一次工业革命于18世纪60年代左右发端于英国以来,全球化进程就以不可阻挡之势一直持续加速,并逐步发展深化 


不过,相生相克、相克相生的古老东方理念,也同样适用于这场源自西方世界且目前仍在继续的“全球化”现象。有贸易限制,就有反对贸易限制的;有自由贸易,就有反对自由贸易的;有全球化,就有反对全球化的。
 

过去的一百多年里,特别是过去的三十多年里,中国人对自由贸易的感知可以说是全球最深切的一方面,有19世纪中叶被迫打开国门进行开展自由贸易的屈辱经历,另一方面,也有上世纪七八十年代主动进行改革开放逐步融入世界市场的奋斗体验。
 

俗话说得好,哪里有压迫,哪里就有反抗。同样道理,哪里有支持,哪里就有反对,全球化也不例外。新一期《经济学人》,就拿深处全球化浪潮中的“反全球化主义者”来说事儿了。


Anti-globalists

Why they’re wrong

全球化逆流,难成气候
 


Globalisation’s critics say it benefits only the elite. In fact, a less open world would hurt the poor most of all

全球化的批评者认为,全球化只给精英们带来了好处,而实际上,世界开放程度降低的话,受害最大的将会是穷人。
 

IN SEPTEMBER 1843 the Liverpool Mercury reported on a large free-trade rally in the city. The Royal Amphitheatre was overflowing. John Bright, a newly elected MP, spoke eloquently on the merits of abolishing duties on imported food, echoing arguments made in The Economist, a fledgling newspaper. Mr Bright told his audience that when canvassing, he had explained “how stonemasons, shoemakers, carpenters and every kind of artisan suffered if the trade of the country was restricted.” His speech in Liverpool was roundly cheered. 

1843年9月,英国港口城市利物浦上演了一场支持自由贸易的大型集会,专为社会底层发声的《利物浦信报》自然不会放过对如此重大的事件进行报道。当时,皇家露天广场人潮汹涌,成功当选议员的约翰•布莱特对取消食品进口关税的好处侃侃而谈,这也刚好与当时刚成立不久的《经济学人》所持的观点不谋而合。布莱特向人群喊道:竞选议员时,我已就“贸易限制政策对石匠、鞋匠、木匠以及其他各匠所具有的危害”解释得一清二楚。布莱特在利物浦的这场演讲受到了群众们的热烈欢呼


1.elite [[eɪˈliːt]]  n. 精英;精华;中坚分子

2.Mercury:罗马神话中天公朱庇特(Juppiter)与女神迈亚(Maia)的儿子,担任诸神的使者和传译,是朱庇特最忠实的信使,为朱庇特传送消息。The Mercury, a staunch campaigning newspaper fighting for better housing, public health, and moral reform, was particularly strong on coverage of social issues such as poor housing and poverty.

3.amphitheatre ['æmfə'θiətɚ]   n. 圆形剧场;阶梯教室

4.overflow [əʊvə'fləʊ]   vi. 溢出;泛滥;充溢;n. 充满,洋溢;泛滥;超值;溢值;vt. 使溢出;使泛滥;使充溢

5.eloquently ['ɛləkwəntli]  adv. 善辩地;富于表现力地

6.abolish [ə'bɒlɪʃ]   vt. 废除,废止;取消,革除

7.echo ['ekəʊ]   vt. 反射;重复;vi. 随声附和;发出回声;n. 回音;效仿

8.fledgling ['fledʒlɪŋ]   n. 无经验的人;刚会飞的幼鸟

9.canvass['kænvəs]   vt. 细究;彻底检查;向…拉票或拉生意;vi. 游说;拉选票;n. 讨论;细查;劝诱

10.stonemason['stəʊnmeɪs(ə)n]   n. 石匠;石工;石工锤


It is hard to imagine, 173 years later, a leading Western politician being lauded for a defence of free trade. Neither candidate in America’s presidential election is a champion. Donald Trump, incoherent on so many fronts, is clear in this area: unfair competition from foreigners has destroyed jobs at home. He threatens to dismantle the North American Free Trade Agreement, withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and start a trade war with China. To her discredit, Hillary Clinton now denounces the TPP, a pact she helped negotiate. In Germany, one of the world’s biggest exporters, tens of thousands took to the streets earlier this month to march against a proposed trade deal between the European Union and the United States.

很难想象,173年后的西方世界,再也难以找到哪位政治人物会因支持自由贸易而受到群众们的热烈欢呼。美国大选的两位候选人,没有一位是自由贸易的拥护者。特朗普在很多问题上态度前后不一,但对贸易的态度却一直很明确:正是源自他国的不公平竞争偷走了美国的就业机会。特朗普还声称,要解散“北美自贸协定”,要退出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协议”,还要向中国开打贸易战。希拉里现在也开始对“跨太平洋伙伴关系协议”进行声讨,不过,这只会败坏她自己的名声,因为,该协议的诞生也有她的一份功劳。而在全球最大出口国之一的德国,本月早些时候成千上万的人走上街头,抗议欧盟与美国之间可能要签订的自贸协定


1.laud [lɔːd]   vt. 赞美;称赞;n. 赞美;称赞;颂歌

2.champion ['tʃæmpɪən]   n. 冠军;拥护者;战士;vt. 支持;拥护;adj. 优胜的;第一流的

3.incoherent [ɪnkə(ʊ)'hɪər(ə)nt]   adj. 语无伦次的;不连贯的;不合逻辑的

4.dismantle [dɪs'mænt(ə)l]   vt. 拆除;取消;解散;除掉…的覆盖物;vi. 可拆卸

5.discredit [dɪs'kredɪt]   vt. 不信;使……丢脸;n. 怀疑;无信用;名声的败坏

6.denounce [dɪ'naʊns]   vt. 谴责;告发;公然抨击;通告废除

7.pact [pækt]  n. 协定;公约;条约;契约


The backlash against trade is just one symptom of a pervasive anxiety about the effects of open economies. Britain’s Brexit vote reflected concerns about the impact of unfettered migration on public services, jobs and culture. Big businesses are slammed for using foreign boltholes to dodge taxes. Such critiques contain some truth: more must be done to help those who lose out from openness. But there is a world of difference between improving globalisation and reversing it. The idea that globalisation is a scam that benefits only corporations and the rich could scarcely be more wrong.

当前,国际社会弥漫着一股焦躁不安,担心开放型经济所带来的负面影响,对贸易的抵制情绪正是其症状之一。英国脱欧公投结果也反映出英国民众的担心,怕外来移民抢占了政府提供的公共服务,夺走了国民的就业机会,侵蚀了英国的本土文化。大型跨国公司在避税天堂的运作也遭到穷追猛打。这一切,也确实反映出一个问题,那就是:开放的确让有些人受到了损害,而我们则必须采取更多的弥补性措施。不过,对全球化进行修补和对全球化进行逆转,两者之间有着天壤之别。有观点认为,全球化是场阴谋,只给跨国公司和富有阶层带来好处,没有比这个更偏激的了。


1.backlash ['bæklæʃ]   n. 反冲;强烈抵制;vt. 强烈反对;发生后冲

2.pervasive [pə'veɪsɪv]  adj. 普遍的;到处渗透的;流行的

3.unfettered [ʌn'fetəd]   adj. 无拘无束的;被除去脚镣的;v. 使自由(unfetter的过去分词);解开脚链;释放

4.slam[slæm]   vt. 砰地关上;猛力抨击;vi. 砰地关上;猛力抨击;n. 猛击;砰然声

5.bolthole['bolthol]   n. 避难处

6.dodge [dɒdʒ]   n. 躲闪;托词;vt. 躲避,避开;vi. 躲避,避开

7.scam [skæm]   n. 骗局,诡计;故事;vt. 欺诈;诓骗;vi. 欺诈;诓骗

8.scarcely ['skeəslɪ]  adv. 几乎不,简直不;简直没有


The real pro-poor policy

全球化为穷人带来了实实在在的好处
 

Exhibit A is the vast improvement in global living standards in the decades after the second world war, which was underpinned by an explosion in world trade. Exports of goods rose from 8% of world GDP in 1950 to almost 20% a half-century later. Export-led growth and foreign investment have dragged hundreds of millions out of poverty in China, and transformed economies from Ireland to South Korea.

最重要的明证就是,二战后的几十年里,全球范围内人们的生活水平得到了前所未有的提高,这主要源于世界贸易的爆发式增长。1950年,货物出口仅占世界GDP的8%,五十年后,该占比已增至近20%。出口带来的经济增长以及外国投资,让中国的亿万穷人实现了脱贫,也让爱尔兰、韩国等经济体完成了升级转型


1.exhibit [ɪg'zɪbɪt; eg-]   vt. 展览;显示;提出(证据等);n. 展览品;证据;展示会;vi. 展出;开展览会

2.underpin[ʌndə'pɪn]   vt. 巩固;支持;从下面支撑;加强…的基础

3.drag[dræg]   vt. 拖累;拖拉;缓慢而吃力地行进;vi. 拖曳;缓慢而吃力地行进;n. 拖;拖累


Plainly, Western voters are not much comforted by this extraordinary transformation in the fortunes of emerging markets. But at home, too, the overall benefits of free trade are unarguable. Exporting firms are more productive and pay higher wages than those that serve only the domestic market. Half of America’s exports go to countries with which it has a free-trade deal, even though their economies account for less than a tenth of global GDP.

说实话,西方民众对新兴市场国家所取得的显著进步并不怎么感冒,更不会对其有所欣喜。不过,在西方国家内部,自由贸易的好处也显而易见。与只服务国内市场的公司相比,出口类公司生产效率更优、薪资水平更高。世界经济的领头羊美国,其出口贸易有一半是流向与美国签订自贸协议的国家,而这些国家的经济总量还不足全球GDP的十分之一。


1.plainly ['pleinli]   adv. 明白地;坦率地;平坦地;朴素地

2.comfort ['kʌmfət]   n. 安慰;舒适;安慰者;vt. 安慰;使(痛苦等)缓和

3.extraordinary [ˌekstrəˈɔːdɪn(ə)ri] adj. 非凡 45 33887 45 15288 0 0 1827 0 0:00:18 0:00:08 0:00:10 2991 45 33887 45 15288 0 0 1637 0 0:00:20 0:00:09 0:00:11 3378的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的

4.fortune['fɔːtʃ(ə)n]  n. 财富;命运;运气;vt. 给予财富;vi. 偶然发生

5.unarguable [ʌn'aːgjʊəb(ə)l]   adj. [法] 无可争辩的;不可论证的


Protectionism, by contrast, hurts consumers and does little for workers. The worst-off benefit far more from trade than the rich. A study of 40 countries found that the richest consumers would lose 28% of their purchasing power if cross-border trade ended; but those in the bottom tenth would lose 63%. The annual cost to American consumers of switching to non-Chinese tyres after Barack Obama slapped on anti-dumping tariffs in 2009 was around $1.1 billion, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That amounts to over $900,000 for each of the 1,200 jobs that were “saved”.

与之形成鲜明对比的是,保护主义不仅有损消费者利益,而且对就业也不会产生丝毫积极作用。与富裕阶层相比,穷人从贸易中受益更多。一项针对40个国家的研究显示,若没有了跨境贸易,最富的消费阶层将损失28%的购买力,而最底层十分之一的消费者则将损失63%的购买力。彼特森国际经济研究所的一份研究显示,2009年奥巴马政府对中国产轮胎征收反倾销税后,美国消费者不得不转购非中国产轮胎,使得美国消费者每年多支出约11亿美元,这相当于为“获救的”1200个就业机会中的每一个支付超过90万美元。


1.slap [slæp]   vt. 拍击;侮辱;掌击;掴…的耳光;n. 掴;侮辱;掌击;拍打声;vi. 掴;拍击;adv. 直接地;猛然地;恰好


Openness delivers other benefits. Migrants improve not just their own lives but the economies of host countries: European immigrants who arrived in Britain since 2000 have been net contributors to the exchequer, adding more than £20 billion ($34 billion) to the public finances between 2001 and 2011. Foreign direct investment delivers competition, technology, management know-how and jobs, which is why China’s overly cautious moves to encourage FDI disappoint.

开放,还会带来其他好处。移民不仅能改善他们自己的生活,而且还能为接收移民的国家的经济发展做出贡献。2000年之后移居英国的欧洲居民,对英国财政来说是净收益,在2001至2011年间为英国的财政系统贡献了超过200亿英镑(约合340亿美元)的收入。外商直接投资能促进市场竞争、带来先进技术、更新知识技能、改善管理水平、增加就业机会,这也正是中国对鼓励外商直接投资表现过分谨慎让人感到遗憾的原因所在。


1.exchequer [ɪks'tʃekə; eks-]   n. 财源;国库;财政部

2.overly ['əʊvəlɪ]   adv. 过度地;极度地


What have you done for me lately?

难道还没看到近些年全球化流毒逐渐泛滥?
 

None of this is to deny that globalisation has its flaws. Since the 1840s advocates of free trade have known that, though the great majority benefit, some lose out. Too little has been done to help these people. Perhaps a fifth of the 6m or so net job losses in American manufacturing between 1999 and 2011 stemmed from Chinese competition; many of those who lost jobs did not find new ones. With hindsight, politicians in Britain were too blithe about the pressures that migration from new EU member states in eastern Europe brought to bear on public services. And although there are no street protests about the speed and fickleness in the tides of short-term capital, its ebb and flow across borders have often proved damaging, not least in the euro zone’s debt-ridden countries.

所有这一切并不意味着,全球化没有缺陷。自1840年代以来,自由贸易的支持者们就已知道,尽管大多数人会从中受益,但仍有小部分会从中受损。问题在于,对受损的那部分人,我们没有采取过任何补救措施。或许,1999至2011年间美国制造业净流失的600万个就业机会中的五分之一,可能是由来自中国的竞争所导致的,而且,失去工作的人中,有很多没有实现再就业。想当初,英国政客对来自东欧的欧盟新成员国的廉价劳动力喜出望外,而如今,看看那些廉价劳动力给英国公共服务带来的压力,恐怕现在也后悔莫及了。目前来看,社会上还没出现针对短期资本跨境流动所进行的街头抗议,不过,短期资本的异常跨境流动也经常能带来危害,对债务缠身的欧元区成员国更是如此。


1.advocate['ædvəkeɪt]   vt. 提倡,主张,拥护;n. 提倡者;支持者;律师

2.stem[stem]   n. 干;茎;船首;血统;vt. 阻止;除去…的茎;给…装柄;vi. 阻止;起源于某事物;逆行

3.hindsight ['haɪn(d)saɪt]   n. 后见之明;枪的照门

4.blithe [blaɪð]   adj. 愉快的;快乐无忧的

5.fickleness ['fɪklnəs]   n. 浮躁;变化无常

6.ebb [eb]   n. 衰退;退潮;衰落;vi. 衰退;减少;衰落;潮退

7.ebb and flow  兴衰,起伏;潮的涨落


As our special report this week argues, more must be done to tackle these downsides. America spends a paltry 0.1% of its GDP, one-sixth of the rich-country average, on policies to retrain workers and help them find new jobs. In this context, it is lamentable that neither Mr Trump nor Mrs Clinton offers policies to help those whose jobs have been affected by trade or cheaper technology. On migration, it makes sense to follow the example of Denmark and link local-government revenues to the number of incomers, so that strains on schools, hospitals and housing can be eased. Many see the rules that bind signatories to trade pacts as an affront to democracy. But there are ways that shared rules can enhance national autonomy. Harmonising norms on how multinational firms are taxed would give countries greater command over their public finances. A co-ordinated approach to curbing volatile capital flows would restore mastery over national monetary policy.

正如我们本期专题报道所主张的那样,必须针对全球化所具有的弊端采取相应补救措施。美国花在人员再培训和再就业方面的支出只有GDP的0.1%,而这仅相当于发达国家平均水平的六分之一。在这方面,不管是特朗普还是希拉里,都没有针对受到自由贸易或技术替代影响的就业人员提出解决方案,这多少令人感到遗憾。就移民问题来讲,丹麦的做法值得效仿,可把地方政府收入与接收移民数量挂钩,这样就会减轻当地在教育、医疗、住房等方面所面临的压力。很多人觉得,签订自贸协定对成员国来说是一种束缚,也是对民主的一种侵蚀。但是,尊重大家都遵守的规则并不都是束缚,也可以用来增强成员国的自主性。就跨国公司征税规范进行协调统一,将会提高成员国对公共财政的管控力;就资本流动异常进行监督预防,将会增强成员国对货币政策的主导性。


1.tackle ['tæk(ə)l]   n. 滑车;装备;用具;扭倒;vt. 处理;抓住;固定;与…交涉;vi. 扭倒;拦截抢球

2.downside['daʊnsaɪd]  n. 负面,缺点;下降趋势;底侧;adj. 底侧的

3.paltry ['pɔːltrɪ]   adj. 不足取的;无价值的;琐碎的;卑鄙的

4.lamentable ['læməntəb(ə)l]   adj. 可悲的;可怜的;哀伤的

5.strain[streɪn]  n. 张力;拉紧;负担;扭伤;血缘;vi. 拉紧;尽力;vt. 拉紧;滥用;滤去;竭力;n. (植物、动物的)品种;种类

6.affront [ə'frʌnt]   vt. 冒犯,有意冒犯;面对;公开侮辱;n. 轻蔑;公开侮辱

7.mastery ['maːst(ə)rɪ]   n. 掌握;精通;优势;征服;统治权


These are the sensible responses to the peddlers of protectionism and nativism. The worst answer would be for countries to turn their backs on globalisation. The case for openness remains much the same as it did when this newspaper was founded to support the repeal of the Corn Laws. There are more—and more varied—opportunities in open economies than in closed ones. And, in general, greater opportunity makes people better off. Since the 1840s, free-traders have believed that closed economies favour the powerful and hurt the labouring classes. They were right then. They are right now.

关于保护主义以及本土主义的呼声,回应方式是多样的,也或许都是合乎情理的。其中,最糟糕的就是,各个国家都对全球化说不。当下针对经济开放的争论,与173年之前创建《经济学人》支持废除《谷物法》时的状况基本一样。相较封闭型经济体来说,开放型经济体会带来更多机会,机会也更多样。而且,一般情况下,机会越多,人们的生活也就会越好。1840年代以来,自由贸易支持者们一直都相信,封闭型经济有利于权贵精英、有害于工薪阶层,这在一百多年前是合理的、正确的、正当的,到现在依然是合理的、正确的、正当的


1.peddler['pedlə]   n. 小贩;传播者

2.nativism ['neɪtɪvɪz(ə)m]   n. 先天论;本土主义

3.Corn Laws:谷物法,或称“玉米法案”,指英国1672年制订的限制谷物进口的法律,并在1815年通过新的谷物法提高对农业的保护力度,1846年该法被废除。

4.repeal [rɪ'piːl]   vt. 废除;撤销;废止;放弃;否定;n. 废除;撤销


 

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