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普京大帝|《经济学人》:俄罗斯在衰微,俄罗斯是威胁

2016-10-25 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩

本期导读:纵观第二次世界大战后的全球局势,能起到一举定乾坤作用的“轴心组合”,前有美苏,后有美俄
 

近几年,尽管有中国这支“新秀”闪亮登台,但是,美俄关系仍旧是世界局势中最为关键的支柱。因为,中国暂时还略显“稚嫩”,其重要任务依然是“闷声发大财”,想在风起云涌的国际社会中能彻底长袖善舞,还要再等些日子。
 

作为当前全球格局中最为关键的一环,美俄关系自然就会吸引各界人士的注意。最新一期的《经济学人》就不吝笔墨,推出系列文章,对俄罗斯以及掌控俄罗斯的普京进行了一次全景式的报道。
 



Putinism

普京主义

The threat from Russia

俄罗斯威胁


How to contain Vladimir Putin’s deadly, dysfunctional empire

普京大权独揽,招数总是变幻,为达目的不择手段,西方究竟该咋办?!


FOUR years ago, Mitt Romney, then a Republican candidate, said that Russia was America’s “number-one geopolitical foe”. Barack Obama, among others, mocked this hilarious gaffe: “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back, because the cold war’s been over for 20 years,” scoffed the president. How times change. With Russia hacking the American election, presiding over mass slaughter in Syria, annexing Crimea and talking casually about using nuclear weapons, Mr Romney’s view has become conventional wisdom. Almost the only American to dissent from it is today’s Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

四年前,当时的共和党总统候选人罗姆尼就表示,俄罗斯是美国的“地缘政治首患”。而奥巴马,以及其他很多人,却都对此一笑置之。奥巴马还轻蔑道:“21世纪的今天,上世纪八十年代还在向我们召唤,让我们重拾冷战,要知道,冷战过去已有20多年。”真是人算不如天算。到如今,美国的总统大选,有俄罗斯的黑手搅和其中,叙利亚境内的大量伤亡,也有俄罗斯的功劳,吞并克里米亚自不必说,近来甚至还时不时地叫嚣要使用核武。现在看来,罗姆尼的观点是睿智的,是符合实际的,而且,也是没有沾染核武色彩的。或许,当下唯一对此观点有异议的美国人,可能就是现在的共和党总统候选人特朗普了。


1.contain [kən'teɪn] vt. 包含;控制;容纳;牵制(敌军);vi. 含有;自制

2.deadly ['dedlɪ] adj. 致命的;非常的;死一般的;adv. 非常;如死一般地;If you describe a person or their behaviour as deadly, you mean that they will do or say anything to get what they want, without caring about other people. 不择手段的; 肆无忌惮的

3.dysfunctional [dɪsˈfʌŋkʃənl]  机能失调的,功能障碍的,不正常的;Dysfunctional is used to describe relationships or behaviour which are different from what is considered to be normal. (关系或行为)异常的

4.empire ['empaɪə] n. 帝国;帝王统治,君权

5.geopolitical [,dʒiːə(ʊ)pə'lɪtɪk(ə)l] adj. 地理政治学的,地缘政治的

6.foe [fəʊ] n. 敌人;反对者;危害物

7.mock [mɒk] vt. 愚弄,嘲弄;adj. 仿制的,模拟的,虚假的,不诚实的;vt. 不尊重,蔑视

8.hilarious [hɪ'leərɪəs] adj. 欢闹的;非常滑稽的;喜不自禁的

9.gaffe [gæf] n. 失态;过失

10.scoff [skɒf] n. 嘲笑;愚弄;笑柄;vt. 嘲笑;嘲弄;贪婪地吃;vi. 嘲笑;嘲弄;狼吞虎咽

11.conventional [kən'venʃ(ə)n(ə)l] adj. 符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的Conventional weapons and wars do not involve nuclear explosives. 常规的 (武器); 不用核武器的 (战争)

12.dissent [dɪ'sent] vi. 不同意;不信奉国教;n. 异议;(大写)不信奉国教


Every week Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, finds new ways to scare the world. Recently he moved nuclear-capable missiles close to Poland and Lithuania. This week he sent an aircraft-carrier group down the North Sea and the English Channel. He has threatened to shoot down any American plane that attacks the forces of Syria’s despot, Bashar al-Assad. Russia’s UN envoy has said that relations with America are at their tensest in 40 years. Russian television news is full of ballistic missiles and bomb shelters. “Impudent behaviour” might have “nuclear consequences”, warns Dmitry Kiselev, Mr Putin’s propagandist-in-chief—who goes on to cite Mr Putin’s words that “If a fight is inevitable, you have to strike first.”

几乎每周,俄罗斯总统普京都能玩儿出让整个世界都为之震惊的新花样。最近,普京把可携带核弹头的导弹部署在了与波兰和立陶宛接壤的地区。本周,他又派航母编队跨越北海、纵穿英吉利海峡。普京还威胁,将对袭击叙利亚政府军的美国战机予以击落。俄罗斯驻联合国代表也表示,俄美关系目前处于40年来最紧张时期。俄罗斯的电视里,净是弹道导弹与防空设施方面的新闻。普京手下专门负责外宣工作的德米特里·基谢廖夫就警告说,“鲁莽行为”可能遭受“核打击”,而且还引用普京的名句:“如果战事不可避免,就得先下手为强。”


1.scare [skeə] vt. 惊吓;把…吓跑;vi. 受惊;n. 恐慌;惊吓;惊恐;adj. (美)骇人的

2.despot ['despɒt] n. 专制君主,暴君;独裁者

3.impudent ['ɪmpjʊd(ə)nt] adj. 无耻的;鲁莽的;放肆无礼的

4.cite [saɪt] vt. 引用;传讯;想起;表彰

5.propagandist [prɒpə'gændɪst] n. 宣传者;传播者; adj. 宣传的;传道的

6.inevitable [ɪn'evɪtəb(ə)l] adj. 必然的,不可避免的


In fact, Russia is not about to go to war with America. Much of its language is no more than bluster. But it does pose a threat to stability and order. And the first step to answering that threat is to understand that Russian belligerence is not a sign of resurgence, but of a chronic, debilitating weakness.

其实,俄罗斯不是真的想要和美国来一仗。它嘴上尽管那么说,但那不过是诈唬而已。然而,对地区稳定和世界秩序来说,俄罗斯仍旧是个威胁。而且,应对俄罗斯威胁的第一步就是,需要明白,俄罗斯所展现出来的那种对干仗的嗜好,并非其重新雄起的迹象,而是其长期积弱的表征


1.bluster ['blʌstə] vt. 咆哮;狂吹;夸口;威吓;气势汹汹地说;vi. 咆哮;恫吓;n. 怒号;吓唬

2.belligerence [bə'lɪdʒ(ə)r(ə)ns] n. 斗争性;好战性;交战

3.resurgence [rɪ'sɜːdʒ(ə)ns] n. 复活;再现;再起

4.debilitating [dɪ'bɪlɪteɪtɪŋ] adj. 使衰弱的;v. 使虚弱(debilitate的ing形式)


Vlad the invader

普京大帝,掠侵之帝


As our special report this week sets out, Russia confronts grave problems in its economy, politics and society. Its population is ageing and is expected to shrink by 10% by 2050. An attempt to use the windfall from the commodity boom to modernise the state and its economy fell flat. Instead Mr Putin has presided over a huge increase in government: between 2005 and 2015, the share of Russian GDP that comes from public spending and state-controlled firms rose from 35% to 70%. Having grown by 7% a year at the start of Mr Putin’s reign, the economy is now shrinking. Sanctions are partly to blame, but corruption and a fall in the price of oil matter more. The Kremlin decides who gets rich and stays that way. Vladimir Yevtushenkov, a Russian tycoon, was detained for three months in 2014. When he emerged, he had surrendered his oil company.

正如我们本期封面文章所报道的那样,俄罗斯在政治、经济、社会等领域正面临系列严重挑战。俄罗斯人口老龄化问题日益凸显,到2050年俄罗斯人口将缩减10%。试图通过乘大宗商品牛市的东风来实现国家和经济现代化的努力,现在也打了水漂。因此,普京就不得不提高政府支出以刺激经济。2005至2015年间,政府支出与国有企业对俄罗斯GDP的贡献比例从35%上升至70%。普京掌权之初,俄罗斯的经济增长率还有7%,到现在,经济增长率已变负。西方的制裁可能是导致俄罗斯经济萎缩的部分原因。不过,俄罗斯国内的腐败问题以及国际油价下跌,在其中所起到的作用更为可观。克里姆林宫里的主意,可决定谁能获得财富,以及谁能拥有财富。2014年,俄罗斯企业大亨弗拉基米尔·叶夫图申科夫因被扣押三个月,当再次出现时,叶夫图申科夫已把他手中的石油公司拱手让出。


1.set out 出发;开始;陈述;陈列

2.confront[kən'frʌnt] vt. 面对;遭遇;比较

3.grave [greɪv] adj. 重大的;严肃的;黯淡的; n. 墓穴,坟墓;死亡; vt. 雕刻;铭记

4.windfall ['wɪn(d)fɔːl] n. 意外之财;被风吹落的果子;意外的收获

5.fell flat卧倒;引不起兴趣;完全失败

6.reign [reɪn] vi. 统治;支配;盛行;君临;n. 统治;统治时期;支配

7.tycoon [taɪ'kuːn] n. 企业界大亨,巨头;巨富


Mr Putin has sought to offset vulnerability at home with aggression abroad. With their mass protests after election-rigging in 2011-12, Russia’s sophisticated urban middle classes showed that they yearn for a modern state. When the oil price was high, Mr Putin could resist them by buying support. Now he shores up his power by waging foreign wars and using his propaganda tools to whip up nationalism. He is wary of giving any ground to Western ideas because Russia’s political system, though adept at repression, is brittle. Institutions that would underpin a prosperous Russia, such as the rule of law, free media, democracy and open competition, pose an existential threat to Mr Putin’s rotten state.

普京一直试图通过对外强硬,来掩饰其所面临的国内问题。2011至2012年间的选举操纵,让很多人走上街头以示抗议,俄罗斯的中产阶层,已越来越成熟理性,渴望着国家政治的现代化。油价高位运行时,普京还能通过慷慨解囊获得支持。而当下,普京只能通过叫嚣对外战争、煽动民族主义,来维持他的权力。对于西方的价值观念,普京知道,不能再有任何妥协退让,因为,俄罗斯的政治体制,尽管依然能顺利地平息反对声音,但现在已非常脆弱。诸如民主法治、言论自由、市场竞争等能让俄罗斯实现繁荣的重要机制,都对普京那已然风雨飘摇的权力,构成实实在在的威胁


1.offset ['ɒfset] n. 抵消,补偿;平版印刷;支管; vt. 抵消;弥补;用平版印刷术印刷;vi. 装支管

2.vulnerability [,vʌlnərə'bɪlətɪ] n. 易损性;弱点

3.aggression [ə'greʃ(ə)n] n. 侵略;进攻;侵犯;侵害

4.mass [mæs] n. 块,团;群众,民众;大量,众多;质量; adj. 群众的,民众的;大规模的,集中的; vi. 聚集起来,聚集; vt. 使集合

5.rig[rɪg] n. 装备;钻探设备;服装;[船] 帆装; vt. 操纵;装配;装扮;装上索具

6.sophisticated [sə'fɪstɪkeɪtɪd] adj. 复杂的;精致的;久经世故的;富有经验的; v. 使变得世故;使迷惑;篡改(sophisticate的过去分词形式)

7.yearn [jɜːn] vi. 渴望,向往;思念,想念;怀念;同情,怜悯

8.shore[ʃɔː] vt. 支撑,加固,使稳住;用支柱撑住; n. 海滨;支柱

9.wage [weɪdʒ] vi. 进行;发动;从事; n. 工资;代价;报偿; vt. 进行;开展

10.whip [wɪp] vt. 抽打;煽动;搅打(蛋,奶油);彻底击败; n. 鞭子;抽打;车夫;[机] 搅拌器; vi. 抽打;急走;拍击

11.nationalism ['næʃ(ə)n(ə)lɪz(ə)m] n. 民族主义;国家主义;民族特性

12.wary ['weərɪ] adj. 谨慎的;机警的;惟恐的;考虑周到的

13.adept [ə'dept; 'ædept] adj. 熟练的;擅长…的; n. 内行;能手

14.repression [rɪ'preʃən] n. 抑制,[心理] 压抑;镇压

15.brittle ['brɪt(ə)l] adj. 易碎的,脆弱的;易生气的

16.existential [,egzɪ'stenʃ(ə)l] adj. 存在主义的;有关存在的;存在判断的

17.rotten ['rɒt(ə)n] adj. 腐烂的;堕落的;恶臭的;虚弱的;极坏的; adv. 非常


For much of his time in office Mr Obama has assumed that, because Russia is a declining power, he need not pay it much heed. Yet a weak, insecure, unpredictable country with nuclear weapons is dangerous—more so, in some ways, even than the Soviet Union was. Unlike Soviet leaders after Stalin, Mr Putin rules alone, unchecked by a Politburo or by having witnessed the second world war’s devastation. He could remain in charge for years to come. Age is unlikely to mellow him. 

奥巴马担任美国总统期间,很多时候都认为,不必对俄罗斯操太多心,因为它正在衰落。但是,一个脆弱的、不稳定的、不具可预测性的、拥有核武的国家,是一个危险的国家,而且,从某种角度讲,其危险性甚至比曾经的苏联还要高。斯大林之后的所有苏联领导人,没有一个能大权独揽。而到了普京,又开始独揽大权。不仅没有集体决策机制为普京把关,而且,普京也没亲眼见过第二次世界大战,不知道战争所能带来的破坏程度。随后几年,普京依然可能会牢牢掌控大权。尽管年龄会越来越大,但年龄的增长似乎不会减少普京身上的棱角。


1.assume[ə'sjuːm] vt. 承担;假定;采取;呈现;僭取;篡夺;夺取;擅用;侵占

2.heed [hiːd] vi. 注意,留心; n. 注意到;留心到; vt. 注意,留心

3.Politburo ['pɑlɪt'bjʊro] n.政治局;类似政治局的决策控制机构

4.devastation [,devə'steɪʃn] n. 毁坏,荒废

5.mellow ['meləʊ] adj. 圆润的,柔和的;成熟的;芳醇的; vt. 使成熟;使柔和; vi. 成熟;变柔和


Mr Obama increasingly says the right things about Putinism—he sounded reasonably tough during a press conference this week—but Mr Putin has learned that he can defy America and come out on top. Mild Western sanctions make ordinary Russians worse off, but they also give the people an enemy to unite against, and Mr Putin something to blame for the economic damage caused by his own policies.

对于普京的真面目,奥巴马认识得是越来越清了。本周,记者见面会上,奥巴马对普京口下就没留情。不过,普京知道,完全可对此置之不理,而且有胜算把握。西方对俄罗斯的制裁不痛不痒,起到的最显著作用就是,普通俄罗斯民众的生活,越来越困难了。不过,西方的制裁,也成为了俄罗斯民众团结一致并进行反抗的对象,同时,也给普京提供了口实,成为其政策失误导致经济不振的托词


1.tough [tʌf] adj. 艰苦的,困难的;坚强的,不屈不挠的;坚韧的,牢固的;强壮的,结实的; n. 恶棍; vt. 坚持;忍受,忍耐; adv. 强硬地,顽强地

2.defy [dɪ'faɪ] vt. 藐视;公然反抗;挑衅;使落空; n. 挑战;对抗

3.come out on top 出类拔萃,在竞争中成为最优秀的人;最后成功

4.mild [maɪld] adj. 温和的;轻微的;淡味的;文雅的;不含有害物质的; n. (英国的一种)淡味麦芽啤酒

5.sanction['sæŋ(k)ʃ(ə)n] n. 制裁,处罚;认可;支持; vt. 制裁,处罚;批准;鼓励


Ivan the bearable

普京大帝,西方能对付得了


What should the West do? Time is on its side. A declining power needs containing until it is eventually overrun by its own contradictions—even as the urge to lash out remains.

面对普京,西方该怎么办呢?不过,时间是站在西方这边的。尽管俄罗斯国力在衰微,但仍需对其进行遏制,除非发生两种情况,一是,俄罗斯因国内矛盾而导致崩溃,二是,俄罗斯因试图利用残存国力进行对外战争的冲动而导致崩溃


1.bearable ['beərəb(ə)l] adj. 可忍受的;支持得住的If something is bearable, you feel that you can accept it or deal with it. 

2.overrun [əʊvə'rʌn] n. 泛滥成灾;超出限度; vt. 泛滥;超过;蹂躏; vi. 泛滥;蔓延

3.contradiction[kɒntrə'dɪkʃ(ə)n] n. 矛盾;否认;反驳

4.urge ['ɜːdʒ] vt. 力劝,催促;驱策,推进; n. 强烈的欲望,迫切要求;推动力; vi. 强烈要求

5.lash out 猛击;猛烈抨击;大肆挥霍


Because the danger is of miscalculation and unchecked escalation, America must continue to engage in direct talks with Mr Putin even, as today, when the experience is dispiriting. Success is not measured by breakthroughs and ceasefires—welcome as those would be in a country as benighted as Syria—but by lowering the chances of a Russian blunder.

不过,危险的可能性,主要在于状况误判或恶化升级。因此,美国必须继续和普京直接对话,尽管当下与普京进行对话是一件令人沮丧的事情。对话成功与否,不在于有没有突破性进展或战事是不是停火(对战火频仍的叙利亚或许是这样),而在于降低俄罗斯犯大错的几率


1.miscalculation [,mɪskælkjə'leʃən]  n. 算错;误算

2.escalation [eskə'leɪʃ(ə)n] n. 增加;扩大;逐步上升

3.dispiriting[dɪ'spɪrɪtɪŋ] adj. 令人沮丧的;使人气馁的; v. 使沮丧;使气馁(dispirit的ing形式)

4.benighted [bɪ'naɪtɪd] adj. 愚昧的;赶路到天黑的; v. 使处于夜色包围之中;使愚昧无知(benight的过去分词)

5.blunder ['blʌndə] vi. 跌跌撞撞地走;犯大错; vt. 做错; n. 大错


Nuclear miscalculation would be the worst kind of all. Hence the talks need to include nuclear-arms control as well as improved military-to-military relations, in the hope that nuclear weapons can be kept separate from other issues, as they were in Soviet times. That will be hard because, as Russia declines, it will see its nuclear arsenal as an enduring advantage.

在所有的误判中,核武误判是最严重的。因此,和普京进行对话时,应纳入控制核武与改善军事关系等议题,这样做的意义在于,核武问题能与其他议题分开来谈,苏联时期就是这样做的。当然,谈起来肯定不会容易,因为,随着国力衰减,俄罗斯更会把核武,视为其最重要的救命稻草


1.arsenal ['ɑrsənl] n. 兵工厂;军械库

2.enduring [ɪn'dʒɔːrɪŋ] adj. 持久的;能忍受的; v. 忍耐(endure的ing形式)


Another area of dispute will be Russia’s near abroad. Ukraine shows how Mr Putin seeks to destabilise countries as a way to stop them drifting out of Russia’s orbit. America’s next president must declare that, contrary to what Mr Trump has said, if Russia uses such tactics against a NATO member, such as Latvia or Estonia, the alliance will treat it as an attack on them all. Separately the West needs to make it clear that, if Russia engages in large-scale aggression against non-NATO allies, such as Georgia and Ukraine, it reserves the right to arm them.

争议最大的另一项议题,就是俄罗斯的邻国问题。乌克兰问题显示出,普京是如何通过搞乱邻国,来维持自身势力范围的。美国的下任总统,必须严正表明立场,若俄罗斯想通过同样手段搞乱如拉脱维亚或爱沙尼亚等北约成员国,北约将视其为对所有北约成员国的攻击,而决不能像特朗普所说的那样。另外,西方还应说明白,若俄罗斯对诸如格鲁吉亚和乌克兰等非北约成员国进行大规模入侵,北约将保留对这些国家提供军援的权利


1.destabilise [diː'steɪbɪ,laɪz] 使动摇

2.drift[drɪft] n. 漂流,漂移;趋势;漂流物; vi. 漂流,漂移;漂泊; vt. 使…漂流;使…受风吹积

3.orbit ['ɔːbɪt] n. 轨道;眼眶;势力范围;生活常规; vi. 盘旋;绕轨道运行; vt. 绕…轨道而行

4.tactics ['tæktɪks] n. 策略;战术;用兵学

5.alliance [ə'laɪəns] n. 联盟,联合;联姻


Above all the West needs to keep its head. Russian interference in America’s presidential election merits measured retaliation. But the West can withstand such “active measures”. Russia does not pretend to offer the world an attractive ideology or vision. Instead its propaganda aims to discredit and erode universal liberal values by nurturing the idea that the West is just as corrupt as Russia, and that its political system is just as rigged. It wants to create a divided West that has lost faith in its ability to shape the world. In response, the West should be united and firm.

不管怎样,西方都首先得保持冷静、镇定。俄罗斯插手美国大选,美国自然也可以眼还眼。不过,对于俄罗斯所进行的此类“小动作”,西方是完全能扛得住的,因为,俄罗斯并没有想要,同时也没有能力,向世界提供一套具有吸引力的意识形态或未来图景。俄罗斯的目的只不过是,想通过创造西方和俄罗斯一样烂、西方政治体制中也有选举操纵的印象,来败坏普世自由价值的名声、侵蚀普世自由价值的根基。俄罗斯的目的,是想分裂西方,特别是在西方对其塑造世界的能力已丧失信心的当下。因而,西方对此所能进行的最好回应就是:拧成一股绳,劲儿往一处使


1.keep one's head 保持冷静;保持镇定

2.interference [ɪntə'fɪər(ə)ns] n. 干扰,冲突;干涉

3.merit ['merɪt] n. 优点,价值;功绩;功过; vt. 值得; vi. 应受报答

4.measured ['meʒəd] adj. 量过的;慎重的;基于标准的;有规则的; v. 测量,判断(measure的过去分词)

5.retaliation [rɪ,tælɪ'eɪʃn] n. 报复;反击;回敬

6.withstand [wɪð'stænd] vt. 抵挡;禁得起;反抗; vi. 反抗

7.discredit [dɪs'kredɪt] vt. 不信;使……丢脸; n. 怀疑;无信用;名声的败坏

8.erode [ɪ'rəʊd] vt. 腐蚀,侵蚀; vi. 侵蚀;受腐蚀

9.nurture['nɜːtʃə] vt. 养育;鼓励;培植; n. 养育;教养;营养物

10.corrupt [kə'rʌpt] adj. 腐败的,贪污的;堕落的; vt. 使腐烂;使堕落,使恶化; vi. 堕落,腐化;腐烂

11.firm [fɜːm] adj. 坚定的;牢固的;严格的;结实的; vt. 使坚定;使牢固; vi. 变坚实;变稳固; adv. 稳固地; n. 公司;商号


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