气候变化|《经济学人》：有没有美国，都一个样儿，地球都会照样转
欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。
我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。
欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。
本期导读：人类这个高级物种，是一个很会折腾的物种。那种会折腾的特性，不仅体现于单个个体成长过程中个体内部的“自我”纠结，也体现于社会交往过程中个体与个体之间的竞争，更体现于历史进程中由个体组成的共同体之间的斗争。
经过人类这个折腾物种的长期折腾，地球最终也受不了了，也开始火急火燎了，体温在过去的一段时期内急剧上升，而居住于其中的人们，有些“触觉”比较敏感的，最先“感知”到了“温水水温”的上升，迅速发出呐喊，而有些，却对此充耳不闻，摆出一副事不关己高高挂起的姿态。
温水煮青蛙的道理，尽人皆知，其实，全球变暖这个问题，也是同样道理。因此，若居住于地球上的“青蛙”们想要活得更长久些，就需要采取措施让“水温”上升的更慢一点，否则，越是由着自己的性子来，死得就越快。
The burning question
火急火燎的全球变暖
Climate change in the era of Trump
特朗普时代的气候变化问题
With or without America, self-interest will sustain the fight against global warming
在应对全球变暖问题上，人类“自利”的本性始终是起着根本作用的，不管有没有美国，都不会有什么不同。
BLOWING hot and cold doesn’t begin to cover it. In 2009 Donald Trump signed a public letter calling for cuts to America’s greenhouse-gas emissions. In 2012 he dismissed climate change as a hoax cooked up by the Chinese. On the campaign trail he promised to withdraw from an international accord, struck last year in Paris, to fight global warming. This week, as president-elect, Mr Trump said he has an “open mind” on the Paris deal and that there is “some connectivity” between human activity and climate change.
这天儿，不管是刮热风还是刮冷风，都刮不走这么几件实事儿：2009年，特朗普签署公开信，呼吁美国减少温室气体排放；2012年，特朗普把气候变化说成是中国捏造出来糊弄人的骗局；今年总统竞选过程中，特朗普誓言要退出去年在巴黎达成的气候变化协定；本周，候任总统特朗普又说，对《巴黎协定》持“开放态度”，并表示，人类活动与气候变化之间存在“一些相关性”。
1.dismiss [dɪs'mɪs] vt. 解散；解雇；开除；让...离开；不予理会、不予考虑；vi. 解散
2.hoax [həʊks] vt. 愚弄；欺骗；n. 骗局；恶作剧
3.trail [treɪl] vt. 追踪；拖；蔓延；落后于；n. 小径；痕迹；尾部；踪迹；一串，一系列；vi. 飘出；蔓生；垂下；拖曳
4.accord [ə'kɔːd] n. 符合；一致；协议；自愿；vt. 使一致；给予；vi. 符合；一致
Such fickleness gives succour to pessimists and optimists alike. Those who are gloomy about the climate still expect America to ignore or withdraw from the Paris agreement, or to abandon the 1992 UN framework that underpins it. Sunnier folk hope that Mr Trump will govern differently from how he campaigned, enabling the fight against climate change to continue unabated. The reality is more complex. Mr Trump’s brand of “America First” populism will do nothing to help the planet, but neither need it be the catastrophe many fear.
特朗普这样东一榔头、西一棒槌，既让悲观的人感到些许安心，也让乐观的人获得某些信心。悲观的人们，依然盼望着美国能无视或退出《巴黎协定》，甚至退出1992年达成的《联合国气候变化框架公约》。而乐观的人们，则翘首以望，特朗普的治国方略将会不同于他的竞选方略，这样针对气候变化的努力就会照常进行下去。而实际状况，却复杂得多。特朗普那标榜事事要“美国优先”的民粹主义，对气候变化问题不会有什么好处。不过，不管是哪个阵营的人，都不会希望气候变化真正演变成灾难。
1.fickleness ['fɪklnəs] n. 浮躁；变化无常
2.succour ['sʌkɚ] n. 救援物品；vt. 救助
3.folk [fəʊk] n. 民族；人们；亲属（复数）；adj. 民间的
4.unabated [ʌnə'beɪtɪd] adj. 不减弱的，不衰退的
Hot air
热浪滚滚
First, the bad news. Even if Mr Trump honours America’s commitment to the Paris accord, it is unlikely that his administration will galvanise action. Many in the Republican establishment think that climate deals are examples of global regulatory over-reach. Plenty of Mr Trump’s voters dismiss climate change itself as a phoney fad peddled by “bicoastal elites”. Fossil fuels stand for prosperity and freedom—from the romance of the roughneck to the lure of the road. Sure enough, on November 21st Mr Trump pledged that on day one of his administration he would scrap “job-killing restrictions” on the production of American fossil fuels, which account for 80% of America’s man-made greenhouse-gas emissions.
首先，还是坏消息。即使特朗普尊重美国对《巴黎协定》所做出的承诺，但特朗普政府也不大可能会有什么实际行动。共和党内部很多人认为，各种气候变化协议，像其他很多国际协定一样，最终都会不了了之。投票给特朗普的很多选民认为，气候变化本身就是“美国沿海发达地区的精英”一时兴起到处散布的浮言。对于很多人来说，从与特朗普有着不清不明关系的行业大亨，到对特朗普那民粹路线满怀激情的底层民众，化石燃料依然象征着繁荣，意味着自由。就在11月21日，特朗普做出许诺，上台后的第一天，就会把美国在化石燃料生产方面实施的“不利于就业的限制性政策”予以取缔，而化石燃料消费所产生的温室气体排放量占美国总排放量的80%。
1.galvanise ['ɡælvənaiz] vt. 激励；镀锌；通电流于（等于galvanize）
2.establishment [i'stæbliʃmənt] an organization founded and united for a specific purpose；the persons (or committees or departments etc.) who make up a body for the purpose of administering something
3.over-reach: if you say that someone overreaches themselves, you mean that they fail at something because they are trying to do more than they are able to.
4.phoney ['fəʊnɪ] n. 骗子；假货；adj. 假的；伪造的（等于phony）
5.fad [fæd] n. 时尚；一时的爱好；一时流行的狂热
6.peddle ['ped(ə)l] vt. 叫卖；兜售；散播；vi. 沿街叫卖；忙于琐事
7.bicoastal [,baɪ'kostl] adj. （活跃在）大西洋和太平洋东西海岸的
8.roughneck ['rʌfnek] n. 粗鲁的人，粗暴的人；流氓，无赖
9.scrap [skræp] n. 碎片；残余物；打架；少量；vt. 废弃；使解体；拆毁；adj. 废弃的；零碎的；vi. 吵架
The rhetoric is not the only thing that will be markedly different. The main practical way a Trump administration is likely to weaken the Paris agreement is by avoiding America’s commitments to pay large sums to help other countries cope with climate change. The burden of fighting global warming falls less on rich countries, where energy demand is stagnant and efficiency is rising, than on poor ones, where billions still lack the cheap energy fossil fuels can provide. Poor countries were won over partly by the $100bn a year that America and others promised to help them cope. Private investors were always going to have to stump up lots of cash to fund climate-change action; the onus on them will be heavier.
突然发生转变的，不会只有语风。在实际行动方面，特朗普政府也可能，会通过推脱责任拒付承诺资金帮助其他国家应对气候变化问题，来削弱《巴黎协定》的效应。应对全球变暖的责任，主要落在了穷国而非富国身上。一方面，已经发达富裕了的国家，能源需求已近峰值，能源效率也在提升；另一方面，贫穷的发展中及欠发达国家，亿万民众的能源需求主要靠便宜的化石燃料，即便如此，有些地区能源依然短缺，连便宜的化石燃料也还是买不起。贫穷国家之所以同意签署《巴黎协定》，部分原因就在于，美国及其他发达国家承诺每年支付1000亿美元的资金来帮助它们应对气候变化问题。另外，各行业各公司也不得不安排更多资金来应对气候变化问题，而且，其所面临的负担将会变得更重。
1.rhetoric ['retərɪk] n. 修辞，修辞学；华丽的词藻；adj. 花言巧语的
2.win over: v. 说服，胜诉；争取到… make (someone) agree, understand, or realize the truth or validity of something
3.stump up: 拿出，付出；付清所需要的钱
4.onus ['əʊnəs] n. 责任，义务；负担
This is worrying. But, on close inspection, the path to a greener future still remains open, both in America and abroad. At home there are limits to what Mr Trump’s embrace of fossil fuels can achieve. For all the trillions of dollars-worth of oil and gas that he hopes will be fracked on federal lands, no one will sink a well unless it is profitable to do so. That needs oil prices to be substantially higher than they are now. Coal, too, has been displaced by cheap shale gas rather than Barack Obama’s regulations. Even if the new administration abandons America’s Paris pledges, California has its own clean-energy mandate and will continue to set fuel-efficiency standards that other states and the car industry follow. Besides, energy investments last for decades—firms may well be loth to bet that future presidents will stick with Mr Trump’s policies.
这很是令人担心。不过，细看的话，不管是在美国国内还是在国际上，通往绿色未来的道路依然是行得通的。就美国国内情况来讲，特朗普对化石燃料的青睐所能产生的作用是有限的。要在美国大地上投入巨资进行油气开采，除非能够盈利，否则没人会掏腰包。若要盈利，油价就需比现在的水平要高很多。煤炭之所以被页岩气所取代，也主要是因后者成本更低，而非因奥巴马政府出台的相关政策。即使特朗普新政府无视美国对《巴黎协定》所做出的承诺，像加州它有着自己的清洁能源政策，并会继续推进能效标准的提升，而其他各州以及如汽车等相关行业也会随之跟进。另外，能源投资周期通常会横跨几十年，相关行业公司也不大可能就笃定，未来的美国总统将会延续特朗普的政策。
1.frack: v. intr. To engage in sexual intercourse. To act wastefully or foolishly. To interfere; meddle. Often used with with. n. An act of sexual intercourse. A partner in sexual intercourse. A despised person. An intensive used to accentuate an interrogative.
2.sink [sɪŋk] vi. 下沉；消沉；渗透；vt. 使下沉；挖掘；使低落；n. 水槽；洗涤槽；污水坑
3.mandate ['mændeɪt] n. 授权；命令，指令；委托管理；受命进行的工作；vt. 授权；托管
4.loth [ləʊθ] adj. 不愿意的（等于loath）；勉强的；憎恶的
Nor need the fight against climate change elsewhere founder in the absence of American leadership. Self-interest will see to that. China takes air pollution in its cities at least as seriously as it does climate change—a recent study found that air pollution contributed to the deaths of 1.6m people in China each year. Switching from burning coal to cleaner forms of energy thus makes sense twice over. India needs climate action as insurance against extreme weather: it spends a fortune in the wake of storms, floods and other events.
就国际情况来看，气候变化问题，没有美国的领导，并不意味着应对气候变化的努力在其他地区也就会失败。人类自利的本性，会自发起作用。中国正严肃对待空气污染问题，与其对待气候变化问题的严正态度没什么区别。最近一份研究发现，中国每年有160万人的死亡与空气污染有关。这样，用清洁能源替代煤炭就显得更为有理、有利。而印度，也需要采取行动来减少极端天气的发生。遭受了系列风暴、洪灾及其他极端天气灾害之后，印度也正投入巨资来应对气候变化问题。
1.founder ['faʊndə(r)] vi. 失败；沉没；倒塌；变跛；vt. 破坏；使摔倒；垮掉；n. 创始人；建立者；翻沙工
2.see to: 注意；负责；照料If you see to something that needs attention, you deal with it.
3.fortune: ['fɔːtʃuːn] n. 财富；命运；运气；vt. 给予财富；vi. 偶然发生；a large amount of wealth or prosperity
Commercial self-interest will also keep other countries on the path towards decarbonisation. The costs of clean energy are tumbling. The cost of batteries in electric vehicles has fallen by 80% since 2008; the bill for offshore-wind energy has more than halved over the past three years in northern Europe. Solar power is closing in on gas and coal as an attractively cheap source of power. China plans to have nearly 150 gigawatts of installed solar capacity by the end of the decade, triple what it has today as the world’s biggest solar generator.
商业利益的驱动，也同样会让很多国家走上降低碳排放的道路。清洁能源的成本正在降低。自2008年以来电动车的电池成本已降低了80%。在北欧，过去三年里，海洋风能成本也降了有一多半。太阳能也因其成本越来越接近天然气和煤炭，而成为一种越来越具吸引力的低成本能源。到2020年，中国计划把太阳能装机容量增至近150千兆瓦，这相当于目前装机规模的三倍，到时中国将成为全球最大的太阳能发电国。
1.tumble ['tʌmb(ə)l] vi. 摔倒；倒塌；滚动；打滚；仓惶地行动；vt. 使摔倒；使滚翻；弄乱；n. 跌倒；翻筋斗；跌跤
2.close in：包围；迫近；（白昼）渐短
3.triple ['trɪp(ə)l] adj. 三倍的；三方的；n. 三倍数；三个一组；vi. 增至三倍；vt. 使成三倍
As this week’s special report points out, such developments will curb demand for oil and coal in decades to come. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity (although natural gas will remain an important complement to renewables because of the vagaries of sun and wind). These are epochal changes, with moneymaking opportunities to match. China, for instance, hopes to become a clean-energy superpower by producing cheaper panels, turbines, batteries and electric cars, as well as the systems that link them all together.
正如本周特别报道文章所述，这样的发展趋势将会对未来几十年之内的石油煤炭需求形成一定制约。就在去年，可再生能源超过煤炭成为全球最主要的发电能源，不过，天然气目前依然还是可再生能源的重要补充能源，因为太阳能和风能由于自然因素而具有一定的不稳定性。但是，这些发展趋势，都是极具划时代意义的，而且，其中也不乏各种赚钱机会。将来，中国有望成为一个清洁能源超级大国，太阳能面板、风力发电机、动力电池、电动汽车等成本会更低，并会建立起一套能把相关行业联在一起的制度机制。
1.complement ['kɒmplɪm(ə)nt] n. 补语；余角；补足物；vt. 补足，补助
2.vagary ['veɪg(ə)rɪ] n. 奇想；奇特行为an unexpected and inexplicable change in something (in a situation or a person's behavior, etc.)
3.epochal ['ɛpəkl] adj. 划时代的；新纪元的highly significant or important especially bringing about or marking the beginning of a new development or era
4.match [mætʃ] vt. 使比赛；使相配；敌得过，比得上；相配；与…竞争；vi. 比赛；匹配；相配，相称；相比；n. 比赛，竞赛；匹配；对手；火柴
Don’t COP out
前进的脚步不能停
To be clear, there is much to regret in the prospect of America relinquishing its leadership on fighting climate change. The idea of the world’s second-biggest polluter free-riding on the efforts of others has some countries mulling counter-attacks—one proposal, a carbon tariff on American exports, could lead to a damaging trade war. The Paris agreement was always likely to fall far short of its goal of limiting global warming to within 2°C of pre-industrial temperatures. A more recalcitrant America puts the prospect of deep decarbonisation even further off. And evidence that Mr Trump’s America is withdrawing from its global role is worrying.
说实话，美国可能会放弃对气候变化问题的领导作用，这确实令人感到非常遗憾。作为全球第二大温室气体排放国的美国，若总想搭其他国家的便车，那么其他国家将会采取反制措施，比如对美国的出口货物征收碳排放税，这样进而又可能引发贸易战，最终没有谁会是赢家。《巴黎协定》的目标，是把全球气温上升控制在工业化前2度以内，不过，该目标很有可能是实现不了的。而且，美国的不配合，也让进一步降低碳排放的目标更难以实现。有迹象显示，特朗普要弱化美国的全球领导角色，这很是令人担忧。
1.COP：一个意思是Conference of the Parties (COP)指《联合国气候变化框架条约》第21次缔约方会议（COP21），另一个意思cop out v. choose not to do something, as out of fear of failing
2.relinquish [rɪ'lɪŋkwɪʃ] vt. 放弃；放手；让渡
3.free ride 搭便车；搭顺风车；免费乘车；自由通过
4.mull [mʌl] vt. 研磨；思索；使醉；n. 混乱；软薄布；vi. 深思熟虑
5.recalcitrant [rɪ'kælsɪtr(ə)nt] adj. 反抗的；反对的；顽强的；n. 顽抗者；不服从的人
Yet with climate change, as with other areas that have come to depend on American leadership, the rest of the world can make the best of a bad situation by staying the course. China’s carbon emissions may already have peaked. Improvements in cars’ fuel efficiency cut oil consumption by 2.3m barrels a day in 2015, even when petrol was cheap. China, India, the European Union, Canada and others have strong incentives to embrace cleaner technologies. If they work together they can make a difference—with or without the United States.
气候变化问题，像其他很多全球性问题一样，一直以来都需依靠美国所起的领导作用。不过，若美国真的放弃了对气候变化问题的领导作用，其他国家也依然能有所作为。中国的碳排放可能已见顶，汽车能效的改进，也使得2015年日均石油消费量降低了230万桶，这还是在石油价位较低的背景下实现的。中国、印度、欧盟、加拿大以及其他国家，都推出了系列激励措施，对绿色技术予以支持。若这些国家能团结协作，必然能取得相应的效果，这样的话，有没有美国，也就都无所谓了。
往期精彩：
旧文重发|《天下大势》：全球化浪潮浩浩荡荡，顺之者昌，逆之者亡
美国的新总统|《经济学人》：特朗普时代，美国会如何变、世界将如何换？
财富世界|《2016年全球财富报告》：财富往哪里流，有它自己的规律
诗图一家|《拾壹月》之组诗：寒流强势来袭，金秋艳色殆尽，冷冬霍然降临
注：
1：本文为原创，若发现不错，欢迎转发共享，转载请注明出处。
2：也欢迎点击“赞赏”，为原创打赏，感谢支持。
3：英文转自《经济学人》，非商业用途，仅限个人学习之目的。
4：译文不代表译者观点，若有任何问题，欢迎联系沟通。
5：可设置为“置顶公众号”，第一时间收到最新消息。
6：关注可搜索 我与我们的世界 或meandourworld 也可扫描下方二维码：