东亚局势|《全球脑库》：特朗普时代的日本，将会兴什么风、作什么浪？

原创 2016-12-15 从余启 我与我们的世界我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读：在国际政治领域，“没有永远的朋友，也没有永远的敌人，只有永远的利益”，英国政治人物几十年前对国际社会做出的这个著名论断，一语道破天机，至今听起来也依然振聋发聩。

纵观历史的整个演进过程，不难发现，这个世界，就是一个由大国强国主导着的世界，小国弱国不是发不了言，就是发了也白发，因为，根本没人听。所有国家，不论强、弱、大、小，一律平等，喊得响彻云霄，大家也都听到了，但大家却都做不到。

因此，人类的整个历史，就是大国之间不断博弈、不断重新组合的历史。而当下的世界局势，不过是整个历史进程中的一段小插曲而已。美欧中俄日印，互相你来我往，打得火热，各自也都有各自的算盘。

当今的世界，最会盘算同时也最能盘算的，自然是全球的唯一超级大国美国。美国哪怕发生一丁点儿风吹草动，便会立即给全球带来阵阵涟漪。这不，美国的新总统还没正式上台，便已开始促动东亚棋局的重新洗牌。

Japanese Foreign Policy in the Trump Era

特朗普时代的日本外交

December will be a month of reconciliation for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as he meets with leaders from two countries that fought Japan in World War II: the United States and Russia.

2016年的12月，将是日本首相安倍晋三的“和解之月”，因为，他将接连与二战期间和日本作战的美俄两国的领导人会面。

1.reconciliation [,rek(ə)nsɪlɪ'eɪʃ(ə)n] n. 和解；调和；和谐；甘愿

It might seem promising that Abe is hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and then being hosted by US President Barack Obama in such short order. But these events actually presage an uncomfortable, potentially destabilizing time for Japan – and all of East Asia.

安倍先会以东道主身份款待访日的俄罗斯总统普京，短短几天后又会受到美国总统奥巴马的款待，这看起来好事连连，但场场会晤，对日本乃至整个东亚来说，实际上预示着，将要到来的会是一个不安甚至是充满潜在动荡风险的时期。

1.promising ['prɒmɪsɪŋ] adj. 有希望的，有前途的；

2.presage ['presɪdʒ] n. 预感；前兆；vt. 预感；预言；vi. 预示；预言

On December 26, Abe will shake hands with Obama at Pearl Harbor – weeks after the US marked the 75th anniversary of the Japanese attack there – to reciprocate Obama’s visit to Hiroshima’s atomic bomb sites last May. The mutual demonstration of forgiveness is meant to emphasize the values that Japan and the US now share.

12月26日，安倍与奥巴马的亲切握手将会于珍珠港上演，几周前美国刚在那里举行了日本偷袭珍珠港75周年的纪念活动，安倍的到访，也是对奥巴马5月到访核爆地广岛的回敬，美日之间互相展现出来的宽恕之举，意在对美日目前共有的价值理念进行强调。

1.reciprocate [rɪ'sɪprəkeɪt] vt. 报答；互换；互给；vi. 往复运动；酬答；互给

But this gesture will come just ten days after Abe hosts Putin in his Yamaguchi prefecture hometown; and theirs will be a rather different sort of reconciliation. Russia is one of the few countries with which Japan never signed a peace treaty after 1945, because in the war’s final days, the Soviet Union occupied four then-Japanese islands just north of Hokkaido, the country’s northernmost main island.

安倍在与奥巴马进行握手的十天之前，会在山口县的老家款待普京，而安普的会面，将会是另一种类型的和解。俄罗斯是二战后少有的几个与日本还没签订和平条约的国家之一，因为，二战快要结束时，苏联侵占了日本北方主岛北海道北侧的四个小岛。

The four islands sit at the southern tip of the Kuril Islands chain that separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Pacific Ocean. While they are not of any particular economic value beyond providing some fishing grounds, they do have sentimental significance for Japan – as is often the case with lost territories. And for Russia, which is never keen to cede territory anyway, the islands are strategically valuable; the Kremlin recently decided to install missile-defense systems on two of them.

那四个小岛位于把鄂霍次克海与太平洋分开的千岛群岛的南端。其实，四个小岛除了能提供一些捕鱼场所外，并没有什么特别的经济价值，但对日本来说，却关乎民族情感要义，正如日本对待其他丢失的领土的情感一样。而对于从不会在领土方面进行任何让步的俄罗斯来讲，那些小岛具有重大的战略价值，克里姆林宫近期还做出决定要在其中的两个小岛上部署反导系统。

1.sentimental [sentɪ'ment(ə)l] adj. 伤感的；多愁善感的；感情用事的；寓有情感的

2.cede [siːd] vt. 放弃；割让（领土）

While the dispute over the islands has prevented Japan and Russia from ever formalizing a peace agreement, both countries now seem to want to cuddle somewhat closer. Putin’s trip will be his first official visit to Japan in a decade; and Abe plans to honor him with personalized treatment; their discussions will take place in the manly environment of an onsen (hot spring), rather than in dull offices.

尽管北方四岛问题的存在让日俄之间没能签订和平协议，但现在两国都貌似有意想走得更近些。普京这次的日本之行，将是他十年来对日本进行的首次正式访问，而安倍也已做好一切准备，为普京安排了个性化的礼遇，双方将在适于男人之间进行交流的温泉场所边泡边聊，而不会在单调枯燥的办公室进行会谈。

1.cuddle ['kʌd(ə)l] vi. 拥抱；偎依；舒服地贴著身睡；vt. 拥抱；亲热地搂住；抚爱地拥抱；n. 搂抱，拥抱

2.manly ['mænlɪ] adj. 男子气概的；强壮的；适于男人的；adv. 雄赳赳地

These overtures reflect Russia and Japan’s respective concerns about China. While Russia has warmed to China in recent years, not least by entering into a big natural gas deal and engaging in joint military exercises, it has largely done so as a gesture of defiance against the US and the European Union. In the long term, Russia does not want to look as though it is dependent on its increasingly powerful southern neighbor. Japan, for its part, fears Chinese domination of East Asia, and is more than happy to be Russia’s new Asian friend.

这一切，都反应出俄日双方对中国所具有的疑虑。近几年，俄罗斯尽管对中国一直示好，不仅敲定大笔天然气协议，还举行系列联合军演。俄罗斯之所以这样做，主要是为了向美欧展示一种蔑视的姿态。从长期来看，俄罗斯肯定不想被当成逐渐雄起的中国的附庸。就日本来说，它担心中国将来在东亚会具有支配性影响，而且日本也求之不得成为俄罗斯在东亚的新朋友。

1.overture ['əʊvətj(ʊ)ə] n. 前奏曲；提案；序幕；vt. 提议；为……奏前奏曲

2.defiance [dɪ'faɪəns] n. 蔑视；挑战；反抗

Previously, it would have been difficult, if not impossible, for Japan to invest in Russia’s Far East, owing to its participation in Western sanctions against Russia, imposed in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. But now that Donald Trump has been elected to the US presidency, those sanctions might be eased or eliminated. Indeed, this could explain why Abe broke protocol to become the first foreign leader to meet President-elect Trump in New York, on November 17.

以前，日本若要在俄罗斯远东地区进行投资即使不是不可能，但也是困难重重，因为日本加入了西方因乌克兰问题对俄罗斯的制裁。而现在，特朗普成功当选美国总统，那些制裁将可能会放松或甚至会完全取消。这样看来，安倍之所以打破外交常规在特朗普上台前于11月17日就在纽约与其会晤，成为第一位与其见面的外国领导人，个中原因也就不言自明了。

1.protocol ['prəʊtəkɒl] n. 协议；草案；礼仪；vt. 拟定；vi. 拟定

Had Hillary Clinton won the election, Abe would have been forced to downplay expectations for his summit with Putin. Now, Putin and Abe will have more room to negotiate the contested islands’ status, and to develop a future framework for economic cooperation, which will likely include regular bilateral summits.

若是希拉里赢得大选，安倍就不会对与普京会面抱太大希望。现在，普京和安倍会有更多空间来对争议岛屿进行谈判，对未来经济合作搭建框架协议，还可能就双边领导人定期会晤达成一致。

1.contest ['kɒntest] vt. 争辩；质疑；vi. 竞争；争辩；n. 竞赛；争夺；争论

But this will only be a consolation prize for Abe. Trump’s victory has sounded a death knell for the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Obama had made the centerpiece of his Asia strategy. Abe supported the TPP, and saw it as a means to prevent China from becoming the rule-setter in Asian trade. Without the TPP, it is now increasingly likely that China will step into that role.

但对安倍来讲，这些仅能起到不痛不痒的安慰作用。特朗普的胜选已把奥巴马视为其亚洲战略核心、囊括12个国家的TPP送进了历史的垃圾堆。安倍对TPP大力支持，并把它视为防止中国成为亚洲贸易规则制定者的工具。没了TPP，现在，中国成为亚洲贸易规则制定者的可能性越来越高。

1.consolation [,kɒnsə'leɪʃ(ə)n] n. 安慰；慰问；起安慰作用的人或事物

2.knell [nel] n. 丧钟声；凶兆；哀伤的声音；vi. 鸣丧钟；预报凶兆；发出哀伤之声；vt. 敲丧钟召集

3.centerpiece ['sentəpi:s] n. 中心装饰品；放在餐桌中央的摆饰

That will be a big loss for Japan, and the country will lose out even more if Trump follows through on his campaign promise to make allies such as Japan and South Korea pay more for their own defense. And if Trump continues to provoke China by communicating with Taiwan and questioning America’s “One China” policy, regional tensions will escalate. This, in turn, will only increase Japan’s defense needs, especially with respect to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which China claims as its own.

对日本来讲，那将是一个巨大的损失，而且，随着特朗普逐渐兑现他的竞选诺言，让诸如日韩等同盟国担负更多防务成本，日本将会遭受更多损失。还有，若特朗普继续通过挑拨台湾问题、挑战美� 47 32025 47 15287 0 0 2101 0 0:00:15 0:00:07 0:00:08 3308��的“一个中国”政策来挑逗中国，地区紧张关系将会升级。这样，反过来，只会促动日本防务提升，特别是鉴于中日在东海钓鱼岛问题还争端不断。

1.lose out输掉，失败，亏本，损失

2.provoke [prə'vəʊk] vt. 驱使；激怒；煽动；惹起

3.escalate ['eskəleɪt] vi. 逐步增强；逐步升高；vt. 使逐步上升

So, Abe faces political danger, but he also has an opportunity. Trump’s election and escalating regional tensions have created the perfect pretext for Abe to push for his ultimate political goal: to abolish Article 9 – the pacifist clause in Japan’s post-war, US-imposed constitution, which limits the Japanese military to a “self-defense force,” and has generally kept Japanese defense spending at 1% of GDP.

因此，安倍面临着系列政治风险，但同时也有机遇。特朗普的当选以及逐渐升级的地区紧张关系，为安倍实现终极政治目标——废除和平宪法第九条——提供了绝好机会。和平宪法是战后美国强加给日本的，只让日本保有“自卫力量”，并且使日本的防务预算仅保持在GDP的1%左右。

1.pretext ['priːtekst] n. 借口；托辞；vt. 以…为借口

Abe already has enough parliamentary backing to achieve this, and he could garner more with a snap election for the lower house in early 2017. But, beyond a two-thirds majority in both parliamentary bodies, constitutional reforms also require a simple majority in a national referendum. Achieving that could be harder, because pacifism runs deep in the only country to have been attacked with atomic bombs.

安倍在议会已经拥有足够多的支持来实现此目标，2017年初下议院进行提前选举的话，安倍将会在议会获得更多支持。但是，宪法修改在上下议院都获得三分之二多数同意后，还需进行全国公投获得简单多数支持才行。要获得多数国民的支持是更困难的，因为日本是唯一一个尝过原子弹滋味儿的国家，其国民的对战争的反感已经根深蒂固。

1.garner ['gɑːnə] vt. 获得；储存；把…储入谷仓；n. 谷仓

2.snap [snæp] vt. 突然折断，拉断；猛咬；啪地关上；vi. 咬；厉声说；咯嗒一声关上；n. 猛咬；劈啪声；突然折断；adj. 突然的

3.pacifism ['pæsɪfɪz(ə)m] n. 和平主义；反战主义

By shaking Obama’s hand in Hawaii, Abe will give a nod to the country’s modern pacifist creed, and signal that, despite his reputation as a nationalist, he also harbors deep feelings about the dangers of war. Such peaceful assurances, against the backdrop of growing tensions in East Asia, may or may not be enough to persuade Japanese voters that it is time to expand their country’s armed forces – 75 years after their great but fateful triumph in Pearl Harbor. This will be one of the central questions in Asian politics over the next few turbulent years.

通过与奥巴马在夏威夷握手，安倍将会以此来表示其对现代日本所秉持的那种和平信条的尊敬，并以此来向世人展示，他本人对战争也是深有恐惧的，尽管他是位民族主义者。考虑到东亚逐渐紧张起来的地区局势，安倍这种对和平的言行举止，能否足以说服日本民众相信，在日本做出偷袭珍珠港这项伟大壮举75年后的今天，扩张日本军力的时候到了，依然是个未知数。这也将会是充满不确定因素的随后几年里亚洲国际政治领域的重要问题之一。

1.nod [nɒd] n. 点头；打盹；摆动；vt. 点头表示；vi. 点头；打盹；摆动

2.creed [kriːd] n. 信条，教义

3.fateful ['feɪtfʊl] adj. 重大的；决定性的；宿命的

4.triumph ['traɪʌmf] n. 胜利，凯旋；欢欣；vi. 获得胜利，成功

5.turbulent ['tɜːbjʊl(ə)nt] adj. 骚乱的，混乱的；狂暴的；吵闹的；湍流的