世界经济|《全球脑库》：险情让人警醒，危机就是转机

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读：我们所处的这个世界，在刚刚过去的2016年，是实现“黑天鹅”大丰收的一年。回望我们于过去的一年间所碰到的黑天鹅，真可谓一只接着一只，那个头儿，一只也比一只大，人们的观感一次次被刷新，人们的眼界一次次被重构。

其中，最大的两只，自然是给欧洲一体化进程蒙上浓重阴影且撬动全球格局各版块儿之间开启重新组合之进程的英国脱欧，以及美国选民波涛汹涌的愤怒把个性色彩十足、一切以“生意”为中心的保守主义巨贾特朗普“冲”进了白宫。

英国脱欧以及特朗普入主白宫，都有着一张张白纸黑字代表民意的投票做支撑，自然也都代表着“伟大人民”的胜利。人民已经胜利，胜利狂欢之后，柴米油盐酱醋茶的日常生活还得继续，生活会否比胜利之前更好，那就要具体问题具体分析了，是冷是暖，只有自己知道。

人类社会发展过程中所取得的点滴进步，无不都是基于自身以往所积累的经验，抑或以往所遭受到的教训，抑或两者兼而有之。2016年降临人间的一只只“黑天鹅”，具体是经验还是教训，自然公说公理、婆说婆理，因人而异。

不过，对于过去几十年间一直处于绝对优势地位的自由主义与精英主义来说，2016年肯定是“糟糕透顶”的一年，之所以这样讲，不仅它们在一场场“战斗”中节节败退，而且它们的未来貌似也越来越趋于暗淡。

尽管如此，但它们却还没彻底失去希望，也没失去前进的斗志，更没丧失自己的信仰，并已开始着手进行反思。

坚定信仰、自我调节、自我修整，胜不骄、败不馁，正视自己的一切，既包括耀人的辉煌业绩，也包括赤裸裸的丑陋暗伤，积累经验、总结教训，这些，应该都是具有一定普适性以及普世性的道理，不管你是个人还是个人组成的团体，不管你选择的是哪条道路或信奉的是哪个主义。

A New Year’s Development Resolution

新的一年，实现新发展，需要新方向

The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union and the United States’ election of Donald Trump as its next president have laid bare developed-country citizens’ dissatisfaction with globalization. Rightly or wrongly, they blame globalization – or, at least, how it has been managed – for stagnating incomes, rising unemployment, and growing insecurity.

英国举行全民公投决定脱欧，美国选出特朗普任下届总统，发达国家民众对全球化的不满情绪，得到了淋漓尽致的发泄。不管是对还是错，他们把收入停滞、失业攀升、安全恶化归罪于了全球化，至少是归罪于了全球化的治理方式。

1.resolution [rezə'luːʃ(ə)n] n. [物] 分辨率；决议；解决；决心

2.bare [beə] adj. 空的；赤裸的，无遮蔽的；vt. 露出，使赤裸

3.stagnate [stæg'neɪt] vi. 停滞；淤塞；变萧条；vt. 使淤塞；使沉滞；使萧条

Developing-country citizens have been expressing similar feelings for much longer. Though globalization has brought many benefits to the developing world, many object to the neoliberal economics that has guided its management. In particular, the so-called Washington Consensus, which calls for unfettered liberalization and privatization, and macroeconomic policies that focus on inflation, rather than employment and growth, have attracted much criticism over the years. Is it time to revise the conventional economic wisdom?

发展中国家的民众，也表现出了类似的情绪，而且由来已久。尽管全球化给发展中国家带来了很多好处，但很多人对全球化治理所遵循的新自由主义经济学，却抱持着反对态度。特别是所谓的“华盛顿共识”，因其提倡无节制的自由化、私有化，鼓励以通胀而非就业和增长为取向的宏观经济政策，在过去的几年里受到很多批评。是否已到时候该对传统的经济学进行修正了呢？

1.unfettered [ʌn'fetəd] adj. 无拘无束的；被除去脚镣的；v. 使自由（unfetter的过去分词）；解开脚链；释放

2.conventional [kən'venʃ(ə)n(ə)l] adj. 符合习俗的，传统的；常见的；惯例的

The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) thought it was a question worth considering. So it invited 13 economists from around the world (including the authors – four former chief economists of the World Bank) to do just that.

瑞典国际发展合作署（SIDA）认为，这是一个值得思考的问题。因此，该机构从全世界邀请了13位经济学家（包括本文的几位作者——四位世界银行前首席经济学家）对这个问题进行了探讨。

We concluded that some of the ideas underlying traditional development economics may indeed have helped to create some of the economic challenges the world faces. In particular, it is now evident that simply maintaining balanced national budgets and controlling inflation, while leaving the market to do the rest, does not automatically generate sustained and inclusive growth. With that in mind, we identified eight broad principles that should guide development policy, published in the so-called Stockholm Statement.

我们认为，传统发展经济学所依据的一些理念，可能确实对整个世界当前所面临的某些经济挑战，起到了促进作用。特别是，只保持财政平衡、控制通胀，而把其他的一切都交给市场，这样的做法不会自动产生具有包容性的可持续增长，这点目前已经很显而易见。在这个基础上，我们总结出经济发展政策所需遵循的八项基本原则，并发布在了一份名叫《斯德哥尔摩声明》的文件之中。（微信后台回复“斯德哥尔摩”可获取该文件PDF格式的下载链接）

First, GDP growth should be viewed as a means to an end, not an end in itself. Growth matters mostly because it provides the resources needed to bolster various dimensions of human wellbeing: employment, sustainable consumption, housing, health, education, and security.

第一，GDP增长应作为实现目的的工具，而不能将其本身视为目的。经济增长之所以重要，主要是因为，经济增长能为人类福祉的各个方面，包括就业、可持续性消费、住房、健康、教育以及安全，提供必要的基础性条件和资源。

1.bolster ['bəʊlstə] n. 支持；长枕；vt. 支持；支撑

2.dimension[dɪ'menʃ(ə)n; daɪ-] n. 方面;[数] 维；尺寸；次元；容积 vt. 标出尺寸；adj. 规格的

Second, economic policy must actively promote inclusive development. Rather than expect the development tide to lift all boats, policymakers should ensure that no group is left behind. They must tackle, head-on, the deprivations – from unemployment to inadequate access to health care or education – that cause so much harm to the poor.

第二，经济政策必须积极促进包容性发展。决策者不能寄望于经济的蓬勃发展会让所有人的生活水平都能得到提升，而应确保一个群体都不能被落下。因此，决策者应直面各种权益受损问题，从失业到医疗以及教育机会的不足，这些都是能给贫困阶层造成很大损害的问题。

1.deprivation[deprɪ'veɪʃ(ə)n] n. 剥夺；损失；免职；匮乏；贫困

2.inadequate [ɪn'ædɪkwət] adj. 不充分的，不适当的

Beyond the moral imperative, such an approach would help to maintain economic performance, which can be threatened by excessive income inequality, via social tensions, political turbulence, and even violent conflict. Indeed, some of the recent political tumult – including Brexit and Trump’s victory – has been driven partly by excessive inequality.

这样做，不仅是出于道义责任，而且还有利于保持一定的经济绩效，因为，若收入不平等问题太过严重，就会造成社会关系紧张、政治局势动荡，甚至是暴力冲突，这会进一步给经济绩效带来威胁。也确实，近期的政治湍流，包括英国脱欧以及特朗普赢得美国大选，部分原因就在于，不平等问题太过严重。

1.imperative [ɪm'perətɪv] adj. 必要的，不可避免的；紧急的；命令的，专横的；势在必行的；[语]祈使的；n. 必要的事；命令；需要；规则；[语]祈使语气

2.tumult ['tjuːmʌlt] n. 骚动；骚乱；吵闹；激动

Third, environmental sustainability is not an option. At the national level, income growth that comes at the cost of environmental damage is unsustainable, and therefore unacceptable. At the global level, climate change is a threat to health, livelihoods, and habitats. It is imperative that climate-change mitigation and adaptation policies be an integral part of development policy, not an addendum, at both the national and international levels.

第三，环境的可持续性不是可选项，而是必选项。国家层面来讲，以环境毁坏为代价的收入增长，是不可持续的，因此也是不可接受的。全球层面来讲，气候变化对人类健康、营生方式以及居住环境构成威胁。不管是在国家层面还是国际层面，都不能把减缓气候变化、应对气候变化政策，作为整个发展政策可有可无的附带物，而必须将其作为整个发展政策不可分割的一部分。

1.mitigation [mɪtɪ'geɪʃ(ə)n] n. 减轻；缓和；平静

2.adaptation [ædəp'teɪʃ(ə)n] n. 适应；改编；改编本，改写本

3.integral [ˈɪntɪɡrəl] adj. 积分的；完整的，整体的；构成整体所必须的；n. 积分；部分；完整

4.addendum [ə'dendəm] n. 附录，附件；补遗；附加物

Fourth, there needs to be balance among market, state, and community. Markets are fundamentally social institutions, and they require regulation to allocate resources efficiently. In the last quarter-century, under-regulated markets have been the root cause of many adverse economic outcomes, including the 2008 financial crisis and untenable levels of inequality.

第四，需要在市场、政府、社会之间保持平衡。市场是整个社会的根本性制度，而且需要规制来实现资源的有效配置。过去的二三十年间，市场规制不健全，是造成很多负面经济后果的根本原因，包括2008年金融危机以及病入膏肓的不平等问题。

1.institution [ɪnstɪ'tjuːʃ(ə)n] n. 制度；建立；（社会或宗教等）公共机构；习俗

2.allocate ['æləkeɪt] vt. 分配；拨出；使坐落于；vi. 分配；指定

3.adverse ['ædvɜːs] adj. 不利的；相反的；敌对的

4.untenable [ʌn'tenəb(ə)l] adj. （论据等）站不住脚的；不能维持的；不能租赁的；难以防守的

For markets and non-market actors alike, the state is indispensable to effective regulation. Civil-society institutions, for their part, are essential to ensure that the state functions efficiently and fairly.

对于市场和非市场主体来说，政府在实现有效规制方面都是不可或缺的。公民社会组织也有其自身的作用，对于确保政府的效率与公平也是必需的。

Fifth, macroeconomic stability demands policy flexibility. Traditional policy advice fetishized a balanced budget – sometimes to the detriment of macroeconomic stability. A better approach would regard fiscal and external balances as medium-run constraints. That way, fiscal stimulus, such as public investment, can help to invigorate sluggish economies and lay the groundwork for longer-term growth. The key is to ensure that public debt and inflationary pressures are well managed during the good times.

第五，宏观经济稳定需要政策具有弹性。传统的政策焦点都是集中于预算的平衡，有时候这却不利于宏观经济的稳定。较好的办法是，把财政以及外部平衡都视为中期约束条件，这样，诸如公共投资的财政刺激，就有助于为萧条的经济提供动力，并为长期经济增长打下基础。关键是需要在经济运行良好的时候，要确保管理好公共债务、应对好通胀压力。

1.fetishize ['fetɪʃaɪz] vt. 盲目迷恋；以…为偶像

2.detriment ['detrɪm(ə)nt] n. 损害；伤害；损害物

Sixth, the impact of technological change on inequality demands special attention. Recent technological advances have displaced labor, increasing capital’s share in income and, thus, the level of inequality. After all, automation enables companies to spend less on wages, thereby boosting shareholders’ returns.

第六，技术进步对不平等造成的影响需要给予特别关注。近年来的技术进步让很多人失去了工作，提高了收入中的资本比重，这样，也就恶化了不平等问题。不管怎样，自动化毕竟让公司实现了工资成本降低，从而提升了投资者的回报。

Unfortunately, what is fundamentally a labor-versus-capital problem has often been portrayed as a labor-versus-labor problem, with some in advanced economies claiming that developing countries are taking their jobs. This has contributed to the rejection of trade openness and calls for protectionism. What is really needed, however, is action to enhance human capital; to adapt and improve income-redistribution instruments; and to promote equality in market incomes, including by boosting workers’ bargaining power.

不幸的是，根本上来讲，其实是个劳动力与资本之间的问题，但往往却被描述成是一个劳动力与劳动力之间的问题，发达国家还有人声称，是发展中国家夺走了他们的就业机会。这使得人们拒绝贸易开放，并招致保护主义的呼声。然而，真正需要做的，是采取行动增强人力资本，采取措施改进收入再分配方式，从而促进收入平等，包括提高工人阶层的议价能力。

Seventh, social norms, values, and mindsets affect economic performance. An economy works better when there is trust among people. Social norms can also help to curb corruption and encourage fair practices. Civil society and governments should therefore promote conducive values and norms.

第七，社会秩序、价值观以及主流心态影响经济绩效。人与人之间有了信任，经济就会更好。社会秩序也有助于抑制腐败、鼓励公平。因此，公民社会以及政府需要提倡有益的价值观念以及社会秩序。

1.mindset ['maɪn(d)set] n. 心态；倾向；习惯；精神状态

2.conducive [kən'djuːsɪv] adj. 有益的；有助于…的

Eighth, the international community has an important role to play. Global forces and national policies create externalities that constrain policy options. Perhaps the most talked-about recent example is the impact of advanced-country monetary policies on capital flows into and out of emerging economies. Other examples include migration restrictions, trade policies, and regulations on tax havens.

第八，国际社会能起到重要作用。全球性的力量以及国家层面的政策都会产生外部性，并对单个国家的政策选项形成一定外在约束。近期讨论最多的一个相关领域就是，发达国家货币政策对新兴经济体资本跨境流动所造成的影响。其他领域包括移民政策、贸易政策以及避税天堂的相关规制等。

1.externality [,ekstɜː'nælɪtɪ] n. 外在性；外形；外部事物；经济外部性

Only international institutions can manage the externalities created by such policies. The key to ensuring that they do so fairly and effectively is to amplify the voice of developing countries within them.

这些政策所造成的外部性，只有通过国际制度才能得到有效管理。若要确保管理的公平性和有效性，关键就是需要扩大发展中国家的代表性和发言权。

1.amplify ['æmplɪfaɪ] vt. 放大，扩大；增强；详述；vi. 详述

As 2016 comes to an end, so should the old modes of economic thinking that have produced so much economic hardship and fueled so much tumult. Past economic development, together with advances in economic thinking, have provided us with a wealth of insight into what works and what doesn’t. That knowledge should be at the core of the new approach to development that the world needs.

2016年已成为过去，造成这么多经济困难、带来这么多紊乱不安的老的经济思维模式也应该成为过去。以往的经济发展，以及经济理论的进步，已向我们提供了很多经验与教训，让我们得以知道哪些可行、哪些不可行。积累起来的这些知识，需作为世界经济发展新路径的核心要素。

Contributors:

作者简介：

Kaushik Basu: former chief economist of the World Bank, Professor of Economics at Cornell University.

考希克·巴苏：世界银行前首席经济学家，康奈尔大学经济学教授

François Bourguignon: former chief economist of the World Bank, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the Paris School of Economics.

弗朗索瓦·布吉尼翁：世界银行前首席经济学家，巴黎经济学院经济学荣休教授

Justin Yifu Lin: former chief economist and senior vice president at the World Bank, Professor and Honorary Dean of the National School of Development, Peking University, and the founding director of the China Center for Economic Research. He is the author, most recently, of Against the Consensus: Reflections on the Great Recession. 

林毅夫：世界银行前首席经济学家与高级副总裁，北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长、教授，中国经济研究中心创建理事，其最近出版新书为《反思共识：对大萧条的审视》

Joseph E. Stiglitz: recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨：2001年获得诺贝尔经济学奖，1979年获得约翰·贝茨·克拉克奖，现为哥伦比亚大学教授、经合组织“经济效能与社会进步监测委员会”高级别专家组联席主席、罗斯福研究所首席经济师，曾任世界银行高级副总裁和首席经济师，克林顿政府经济顾问委员会主席，2000年于哥伦比亚大学创建了专注国际经济发展的智库“政策对话倡议组织”，其最新著作为《欧元：共同货币对欧洲未来的威胁》

往期精彩：

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