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诺奖得主谈新政府|《全球脑库》:白宫迎来特朗普,人们的日子会更苦

2017-01-17 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读特朗普上台,指日可待,而支持特朗普的亿万美国选民所期望的好日子,是否也就指日可待了呢?当前这个变幻莫测的时代,各种事情,都有着很大的不确定性,而特朗普当总统,却已然板上钉钉,不过,美国民众的好日子,既还没看到板,也没钉的影踪。


中国有句古话叫做,“察其言,观其行,而善恶彰焉”。到现在为止,特朗普所展现出来的,主要还都是些“言”的方面,而其“行”具体会怎样,还要看他正式担任总统后所想以及所能出台的具体政策,只有言没有行,是辨识不了他的真面目的。


因此,若要判断一个人,不仅要看他说了什么,更重要的是,还要看他做了什么,毕竟,林子大了,什么鸟就都会有,全球七十多亿人中,有很多人会言行不一,当然也不乏很多人会口是心非,或口非心是。


通过“撩人”的竞选呐喊积攒够入主白宫选票的特朗普,上台后将会如何行?让我们来瞧瞧,诺奖得主斯蒂格利茨对此如何看。



Bad News for America’s Workers

美国工薪阶层的坏兆头


As US President-elect Donald Trump fills his cabinet, what have we learned about the likely direction and impact of his administration’s economic policy?

随着候任总统特朗普的内阁团队逐渐成形,我们能否从中就美国新政府经济政策的可能取向及其潜在影响探知一二?


To be sure, enormous uncertainties remain. As in many other areas, Trump’s promises and statements on economic policy have been inconsistent. While he routinely accuses others of lying, many of his economic assertions and promises – indeed, his entire view of governance – seem worthy of Nazi Germany’s “big lie” propagandists.

可以肯定的是,依然充满很多不确定性。和其他很多领域一样,在经济政策领域,特朗普的言谈始终也前后不一。尽管特朗普经常口口声声谴责他人谎话连篇,而他自己对经济政策的主张和言谈,甚至他对政府治理的整个观点,几乎与纳粹德国的“谎言满天飞”有得一拼。


1.assertion [ə'sɜːʃ(ə)n] n. 断言,声明;主张,要求;坚持

2.propagandist [prɒpə'gændɪst] n. 宣传者;传播者;adj. 宣传的;传道的


Trump will take charge of an economy on a strongly upward trend, with third-quarter GDP growing at an impressive annual rate of 3.2% and unemployment at 4.6% in November. By contrast, when President Barack Obama took over in 2009, he inherited from George W. Bush an economy sinking into a deep recession. And, like Bush, Trump is yet another Republican president who will assume office despite losing the popular vote, only to pretend that he has a mandate to undertake extremist policies.

特朗普将要接手的美国经济,是一个已进入强劲上行通道的美国经济,2016年第三季度,美国经济的同比增速,高达3.2%,而11月的失业率,也降至4.6%。比较来看,奥巴马2009年入主白宫时,他从小布什那里接过来的,是一个正在陷入大衰退的美国经济。而且,与小布什相似,特朗普也是位来自共和党的总统,两人都赢得了选举人票,但却都没能赢得普选票,因此,也都是打着民意的旗号而罔顾民意,推行各项极端政策。


1.recession [rɪ'seʃ(ə)n] n. 衰退;不景气;后退;凹处

2.mandate ['mændeɪt] n. 授权;命令,指令;委托管理;受命进行的工作;vt. 授权;托管


The only way Trump will square his promises of higher infrastructure and defense spending with large tax cuts and deficit reduction is a heavy dose of what used to be called voodoo economics. Decades of “cutting the fat” in government has left little to cut: federal government employment as a percentage of the population is lower today than it was in the era of small government under President Ronald Reagan some 30 years ago.

特朗普承诺会加强基建投资、提高防务支出,会大幅减税、削减预算赤字,要兑现这些诺言,唯一的办法就是向美国前总统里根学习,再来一次“忽悠经济学”。过去的几十年间,联邦政府一直在“精简瘦身”,到现在已没什么进一步“瘦身”的空间了,当前,联邦政府雇员数量与人口总数的比例,比30年左右之前里根总统小政府时代的还要低。


1.square [skweə] adj. 平方的;正方形的;直角的;正直的;vt. 使成方形;与…一致;vi. 一致;成方形;n. 平方;广场;正方形;adv. 成直角地

2.voodoo ['vuːduː] n. 伏都教(一种西非原始宗教);伏都教徒;vt. 施伏都巫术迷惑;adj. 伏都教的

3.voodoo economics:a slanderous term used by George H. W. Bush in reference to President Ronald Reagan's economic policies, known as "Reaganomics"


With so many former military officers serving in Trump’s cabinet or as advisers, even as Trump cozies up to Russian President Vladimir Putin and anchors an informal alliance of dictators and authoritarians around the world, it is likely that the US will spend more money on weapons that don’t work to use against enemies that don’t exist. If Trump’s health secretary succeeds in undoing the careful balancing act that underlies Obamacare, either costs will rise or services will deteriorate – most likely both.

很多有军界背景的人士以内阁成员或顾问的身份加入了特朗普团队,与此同时,特朗普还与俄罗斯总统普京打得火热,并与有独裁专制倾向的其他国家领导人搅和成一团,由此看来,美国将会在武器方面花更多钱,来对付不存在的敌人。若特朗普任命的卫生部部长能成功废除奥巴马精心制定的医改方案,要么人们所担负的成本水平将上升,要么人们所享受的服务质量将下降,而且,最可能出现的情况是,成本水平上升的同时,服务质量也将下降


1.cozy up(或up to): 靠近以得到安慰(或亲情);奉承,拼命巴结,讨好,取悦;拉拢

2.anchor['æŋkə] n. 锚;抛锚停泊;靠山;新闻节目主播;vt. 抛锚;使固定;主持节目;vi. 抛锚;adj. 末捧的;最后一棒的

3.undo [ʌn'duː] vt. 取消;解开;破坏;扰乱;vi. 撤消


During the campaign, Trump promised to get tough on executives who outsource American jobs. He is now holding up the news that the home heating and air conditioning manufacturer Carrier will keep some 800 jobs in my home state of Indiana as proof that his approach works. Yet the deal will cost taxpayers $7 million, and still allow Carrier to outsource 1,300 jobs to Mexico. This is not a sound industrial or economic policy, and it will do nothing to help raise wages or create good jobs across the country. It is an open invitation for a shakedown of the government by corporate executives seeking handouts.

竞选时,特朗普承诺,要采取严厉措施,来对付把工作机会搬到美国境外的公司。特朗普通过收买,说服空调配件制造商Carrier在我的老家印第安纳州保留了约800个就业机会,现在他就到处吹嘘,以此来为他那政策取向的可行性进行辩护。那项收买交易,不仅花费了纳税人700亿美元,而且Carrier依然把另外1300个就业机会搬到了墨西哥。这种行业政策或经济政策是不行的,不管是对美国工人工资的提升,还是对美国高质量的就业机会的增多,都不会起到任何积极作用。同时,这也相当于发出公开邀请,让寻求政府补贴的公司,向政府索要更多。


1.shakedown ['ʃeɪkdaʊn] n. 调整,整顿;临时床铺;勒索;彻底搜查;adj. 试航的

2.handout ['hændaʊt] n. 散发材料(免费发给的新闻通报);上课老师发的印刷品;文字资料 (会议上分发的);施舍物


Similarly, the increase in infrastructure spending is likely to be accomplished through tax credits, which will help hedge funds, but not America’s balance sheet: such programs’ long track record shows that they deliver little value for money. The cost to the public will be especially high in an era when the government can borrow at near-zero interest rates. If these private-public partnerships are like those elsewhere, the government will assume the risks, and the hedge funds will assume the profits.

同样,增加基建投资也可能会通过税收抵免来得到实现,而这又将有利于套利基金,却对美国的财政平衡毫无益处,在这方面,已有丰富的历史教训,那种方式不会带来价值创造。同时,鉴于政府借贷利率几乎为零,普罗大众所需承担的成本,将会升至历史高位。若这些公私合作模式也像其他国家那样运作的话,风险将会由政府承担,收益则会进入套利基金的腰包


1.tax credit 税收抵免;课税津贴;贷方税额

2.hedge fund n. 对冲基金;避险基金;避险基金;套利基金

3.PPP(Public-Private Partnership):公共私营合作制,即政府和社会资本合作,是公共基础设施中的一种项目融资模式


The debate just eight years ago about “shovel-ready” infrastructure seems to be a distant memory. If Trump chooses shovel-ready projects, the long-term impact on productivity will be minimal; if he chooses real infrastructure, the short-term impact on economic growth will be minimal. And back-loaded stimulus has its own problems, unless it is managed extremely carefully.

八年前美国上演的关于“大干快上”式基建投资的争论,貌似人们现在已经把它给忘了。若特朗普选择“大干快上”式的基建项目,长期来讲,对提升生产力所能产生的积极作用是微乎其微的;若特朗普选择“真正有用”的基建项目,短期来讲,对经济增长的刺激作用则是微乎其微的。而且,拖延经济刺激本身也会带来问题,需要极其精心的安排才能避免。


1.shovel-ready: a political term used to describe construction projects (usually larger-scale infrastructure) where planning and engineering is advanced enough that with sufficient funding, construction can begin within a very short time. The phrase did not exist and had never before been used until President Barack Obama used it during an interview with Meet the Press on 6 December 2008. Obama used the phrase to describe infrastructure projects that were ready to immediately receive stimulus funding of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

2.back-load ['bæk,ləud] vt. 推延,推迟(发薪等)[参较 front-load]


If Trump’s pick for US Treasury Secretary, the Goldman Sachs and hedge-fund veteran Steven Mnuchin, is like others from his industry, the expertise he will bring to the job will be in tax avoidance, not constructing a well-designed tax system. The “good” news is that tax reform was inevitable, and was likely to be undertaken by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and his staff – giving the rich the less progressive, more capital-friendly tax system that Republicans have long sought. With the abolition of the estate tax, the Republicans would finally realize their long-held ambition of creating a dynastic plutocracy – a far cry from the “equality of opportunity” maxim the party once trumpeted.

若特朗普选定的美国财长,前高盛集团合伙人同时也是套利基金老手的史蒂芬·姆钦,也像同行那样的话,那么,担任财长期间,其工作重点会放在避税问题方面,而非构建一套稳健的税务体系。“好”消息是,肯定会有税改,不过,税改可能会由众议院议长莱恩及其团队操刀,将会为富人提供一套更可靠、更有利于资本阶层的税务体系,这也是共和党人士长期以来一直在追求的。废止房地产遗产税后,共和党人士最终会得以实现他们长久以来所寻求的目标:创建起来一套封建式的富人统治体系。而这,与共和党一度高呼的“机会均等”的奋斗目标,相差何止千里万里


1.abolition [æbə'lɪʃ(ə)n] n. 废除;废止

2.estate tax: estate duty,亦作 death tax,房地产遗产税

3.plutocracy [pluː'tɒkrəsɪ] n. 富豪统治,富豪统治集团

4.far cry长距离;不同的事物,差别悬殊

5.maxim ['mæksɪm] n. 格言;准则;座右铭


Large tax cuts and large expenditure increases inevitably lead to large deficits. Reconciling this with Trump’s promise to reduce the deficit will probably entail a return to Reagan-era magical thinking: despite decades of proof to the contrary, this time the stimulus to the economy brought by tax cuts for the rich will be so large that tax revenues will actually increase.

大幅减税的同时,又大幅提高开支,这必然将导致财政赤字大幅扩张。鉴于此,考虑到特朗普曾承诺要削减财政赤字,这极有可能会让里根时代那种“不切实际的幻想”重现,即,这次特朗普为富人减税,给经济增长带来的刺激程度是如此之强,足以让政府税收得到提升,尽管这种想法几十年来一再被证明与现实完全相反。


1.reconcile ['rek(ə)nsaɪl] vt. 使一致;使和解;调停,调解;使顺从

2.entail [ɪn'teɪl] vt. 使需要,必需;承担;遗传给;蕴含


This story doesn’t end well for Trump’s angry, displaced Rust Belt voters. Unhinged budgetary policies will induce the US Federal Reserve to normalize interest rates faster. Some see incipient inflation (given the low unemployment rate); some believe the long period of ultra-low interest rates has distorted capital markets; and some want to “replenish their ammunition,” so that the Fed can lower interest rates should the economy slow down again.

这种想法,对生活在“铁锈地带”因面临困境而怒发冲冠支持特朗普的选民来说,最终不会有什么好果子吃。财政政策放松,将会让美联储以更快的节奏提升利率。鉴于就业率已不太高,有些人预计通胀将会冒头;有些人认为,利率长期超低,已让资本市场发生扭曲;而有些人却想着,“要备足弹药”,主要考虑到,若经济再次下行的话,美联储就会降低利率。


1.Rust Belt n.衰退地区,铁锈地带(指美国等已陷入经济困境的老工业区)

2.unhinge [ʌn'hɪn(d)ʒ] vt. 使分开;取下…的铰链;使发狂或错乱

3.incipient [ɪn'sɪpɪənt] adj. 初期的;初始的;起初的;发端的

4.replenish [rɪ'plenɪʃ] vt. 补充,再装满;把…装满;给…添加燃料

5.ammunition [æmjʊ'nɪʃ(ə)n] n. 弹药;军火;vt. 装弹药于;vi. 装弹药


Trump has argued that the Fed should raise interest rates. The Fed, which took the first step toward normalization in early December, will almost certainly deliver – and Trump will soon regret what he wished for. There’s a good chance that the monetary contraction will outweigh the fiscal stimulus, curbing the Obama growth spurt currently underway. Higher interest rates will undercut construction jobs and increase the value of the dollar, leading to larger trade deficits and fewer manufacturing jobs – just the opposite of what Trump promised. Meanwhile, his tax policies will be of limited benefit to middle-class and working families – and will be more than offset by cutbacks in health care, education, and social programs.

特朗普坚称,美联储应提高利率水平。而就在12月初已采取行动开始提升利率的美联储,也几乎可以确定将会沿着这个方向继续前进,不过,特朗普很快就会为曾经的想法而后悔。很有可能,货币紧缩将会抵消财政刺激的作用,对目前因奥巴马执行的政策而产生上行劲头的美国经济形成抑制。利率水平上升,将导致建筑领域就业机会减少、美元币值走强,这会进一步导致贸易赤字扩张、制造业就业机会减少,这一切,会与特朗普所希望的完全相反。还有,特朗普的税收政策能给中产阶层以及工薪阶层带来的好处是很有限的,而且,那些好处也可能会完全被医疗、教育、社会福利等方面利益的减损所吞噬。


1.spurt [spɜːt] vi. 冲刺;喷出;迸发;n. 冲刺;喷射;vt. 喷射;喷出

2.offset ['ɒfset] n. 抵消,补偿;平版印刷;支管;vt. 抵消;弥补;用平版印刷术印刷;vi. 装支管

3.cutback ['kʌtbæk] n. 减少,削减;情节倒叙


If Trump starts a trade war – by, say, following through on his vow to impose a 45% tariff on imports from China and to build a wall on the US border with Mexico – the economic impact will be even more severe. Trump’s cabinet of billionaires could continue to buy their Gucci handbags and $10,000 Ivanka bracelets, but ordinary Americans’ cost of living would increase substantially; and without components from Mexico and elsewhere, manufacturing jobs would become even scarcer.

若特朗普开打贸易战,比如,坚持曾经的誓言对中国商品开征45%的关税、在美墨边境建设隔离墙,这些都将只会雪上加霜由亿万富翁组成的特朗普政府的阁员们,将依然能继续享受名牌包包以及奢华饰品,但美国普通民众的生活成本,却会大幅攀升,而且,没有了来自墨西哥等外国的零部件,美国国内制造业的就业机会也将大量减少。


1.follow through坚持到底;完成球棒击球后的弧形动作

2.severe [sɪ'vɪə] adj. 严峻的;严厉的;剧烈的;苛刻的


To be sure, a few new jobs will be created, mainly in the lobbying shops along K Street in Washington, DC, as Trump refills the swamp that he promised to drain. Indeed, America’s bog of legal corruption is likely to reach a depth not seen since President Warren G. Harding’s administration in the 1920s.

不过,毫无疑问的是,肯定会出现一些新的就业机会,而这些新的就业机会,主要会出现于华盛顿特区的“游说一条街”。特朗普曾誓言要把利益集团的游说清理得一干二净,但他自己目前却在为利益集团的游说推波助澜。很可能,美国的制度腐败将会堕落到1920年代哈定政府以来从未有过的严重程度。


1.K Street:白宫前街,横贯华盛顿北部东西走向,距离白宫和国会这两大权力中心很近,地段的优势使它成为有名的“游说一条街”

2.swamp [swɒmp] n. 沼泽;湿地;vt. 使陷于沼泽;使沉没;使陷入困境;vi. 下沉;陷入沼泽;陷入困境;不知所措

3.bog [bɒg] n. 沼泽;泥塘;vt. 使陷于泥沼;使动弹不得;vi. 陷于泥沼;动弹不得


And there really is no silver lining to the cloud that now hangs over the US and the world. As bad as his administration will be for America’s economy and workers, its policies on climate change, human rights, the media, and ensuring peace and security are likely to be no less damaging for everyone else.

而且,当前的美国与世界,头顶乌云密布,不见一丝希望的亮光。对美国经济以及美国的工薪阶层来说,特朗普政府上台,不会是个好兆头。而特朗普政府在气候变化、人权问题、新闻传媒以及和平安全等领域的政策,对其他国家来说,也不会好到哪里去。


1.silver lining (不幸或失望中的)一线希望;乌云周围的白光



Contributor: Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.

作者简介:约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨, 2001年获得诺贝尔经济学奖,1979年获得约翰·贝茨·克拉克奖,现为哥伦比亚大学教授、经合组织“经济效能与社会进步监测委员会”高级别专家组联席主席、罗斯福研究所首席经济师,曾任世界银行高级副总裁和首席经济师,克林顿政府经济顾问委员会主席,2000年于哥伦比亚大学创建了专注国际经济发展的智库“政策对话倡议组织”,其最新著作为《欧元:共同货币对欧洲未来的威胁》


往期精彩:


东亚局势|《全球脑库》:特朗普时代的日本,将会兴什么风、作什么浪?

英欧离婚|《经济学人》:走到一起不容易,分起手来更麻烦,且行且珍惜

死人VS活人|《水调歌头》:人的生命,或重于泰山,或轻于鸿毛

变VS不变|《一个清代女人的坟墓》:只有穿越时空,才能发现什么在变,什么没变


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