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美俄关系|《经济学人》:当特朗普的商业主义遭遇普京的沙皇主义

2017-02-16 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读:咱们所居住的这个小小地球村儿里,应数美俄两家之间的关系最为热闹。在地球村儿这个舞台上,可以说两家戏份十足,一场接着一场,足以让全村儿人大饱眼福。美方这家凭借雄厚的实力独霸全村儿,而俄方这家有独霸全村的心,但可惜的是,却没独霸的那个力。


冷战时期,是美苏两大集团全球争霸,你来我往,好不热闹。等苏联崩溃冷战结束,没想到百足之虫、死而不僵,又冒出来个俄罗斯,成为美国这个“村霸”的心头之患,因此,时不时地,美国也才因各种由头采取措施来对付俄罗斯。


不过,就目前的发展情势来看,美国在全球格局中的相对影响力已然不如前几年,尽管它当前依然雄踞全球老大的宝座。而与此同时,俄罗斯却成为了新兴经济体之一,尽管遭受了美欧一轮又一轮的各种制裁,但日子过得貌似还挺红火


十多年来,掌管白宫的美国总统,换了一个又一个,而克里姆林宫中的掌权者,除了普京,人们暂时还看不到有第二个。刚入主白宫没多久的特朗普,试图通过与普京做交易并进而开启美俄关系新篇章,如此撩人的美好愿景,是否真的可行?


在《经济学人》看来,想要与沙皇式的普京达成交易,无异于与虎谋皮,最终会得不偿失,而要开启美俄关系新篇章,也犹如痴人说梦,无异于天方夜谭


Russia and America

美俄关系


Donald Trump seeks a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin

特朗普想与普京做买卖?

It is a terrible idea

想法太危险!


GEORGE W. BUSH looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and thought he saw his soul. He was wrong. Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria. Donald Trump appears to want to go much further and forge an entirely new strategic alignment with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he be the third American president in a row to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?


The details of Mr Trump’s realignment are still vague and changeable. That is partly because of disagreements in his inner circle. Even as his ambassador to the UN offered “clear and strong condemnation” of “Russia’s aggressive actions” in Ukraine, the president’s bromance with Mr Putin was still smouldering. When an interviewer on Fox News put it to Mr Trump this week that Mr Putin is “a killer”, he retorted: “There are a lot of killers. What, you think our country’s so innocent?”


For an American president to suggest that his own country is as murderous as Russia is unprecedented, wrong and a gift to Moscow’s propagandists. And for Mr Trump to think that Mr Putin has much to offer America is a miscalculation not just of Russian power and interests, but also of the value of what America might have to give up in return.


The art of the deal meets the tsar of the steal

特朗普的商业主义VS普京的沙皇主义


Going by the chatter around Mr Trump, the script for Russia looks something like this: America would team up with Mr Putin to destroy “radical Islamic terror”—and in particular, Islamic State (IS). At the same time Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran, an old enemy for America in the Middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Europe Russia would stop fomenting conflict in Ukraine, agree not to harass NATO members on its doorstep and, possibly, enter nuclear-arms-control talks. In the longer term, closer ties with Russia could also help curb Chinese expansion. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s most alarming adviser, said last year that he had “no doubt” that “we’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to ten years.” If so, America will need allies, and Russia is a nuclear power with a 4,200km (2,600-mile) border with China. What’s not to like?


Pretty much everything. Russian hacking may have helped Mr Trump at the polls, but that does not mean he can trust Mr Putin. The Kremlin’s interests and America’s are worlds apart


In Syria, for example, Mr Putin makes a big noise about fighting IS terrorists, but he has made no real effort to do so. His price for working with America could be to secure a permanent Russian military presence in the Middle East by propping up Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was revealed this week to have hanged thousands of Syrians after two- or three-minute trials. None of this is good for Syria, regional stability or America. Even if Mr Putin and Mr Trump shared a common goal (they don’t) and Americans did not mind becoming complicit in Russian atrocities (they should), American and Russian forces cannot easily fight side by side. Their systems do not work together. To make them do so would require sharing military secrets that the Pentagon spends a fortune protecting. Besides, Russian aircraft do not add much to the coalition air power already attacking IS. Ground troops would, but Mr Putin is highly unlikely to deploy them.


Likewise, Russia is not about to confront Iran. The country’s troops are a complement to Russian air power. Iran is a promising market for Russian exports. And, most of all, the two countries are neighbours who show every sign of working together to manage the Middle East, not of wanting to fight over it.


The notion that Russia would be a good ally against China is even less realistic. Russia is far weaker than China, with a declining economy and population and a smaller army. Mr Putin has neither the power nor the inclination to pick a quarrel with Beijing. On the contrary, he values trade with China, fears its military might and has much in common with its leaders, at least in his tendency to bully his neighbours and reject Western lecturing about democracy and human rights. Even if it were wise for America to escalate confrontation with China—which it is not—Mr Putin would be no help at all.


The gravest risk of Mr Trump miscalculating, however, is in Europe. Here Mr Putin’s wishlist falls into three classes: things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions; things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; and things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO.


Mr Putin would love it if Mr Trump gave him a freer hand in Russia’s “near abroad”, for example by scrapping America’s anti-missile defences in Europe and halting NATO enlargement with the membership of Montenegro, which is due this year. Mr Trump appears not to realise what gigantic concessions these would be. He gives mixed signals about the value of NATO, calling it “obsolete” last month but vowing to support it this week. Some of his advisers seem not to care if the EU falls apart; like Mr Putin, they embrace leaders such as Marine Le Pen who would like nothing more. Mr Bannon, while admitting that Russia is a kleptocracy, sees Mr Putin as part of a global revolt by nationalists and traditionalists against the liberal elite—and therefore a natural ally for Mr Trump.


Played for a sucker by a silovik

面对克格勃出身的普京,特朗普简直弱爆


The quest for a grand bargain with Mr Putin is delusional. No matter how great a negotiator Mr Trump is, no good deal is to be had. Indeed, an overlooked risk is that Mr Trump, double-crossed and thin-skinned, will end up presiding over a dangerous and destabilising falling-out with Mr Putin.


Better than either a bargain or a falling-out would be to work at the small things to improve America’s relations with Russia. This might include arms control and stopping Russian and American forces accidentally coming to blows. Congressional Republicans and his more sensible advisers, such as his secretaries of state and defence, should strive to convince Mr Trump of this. The alternative would be very bad indeed.



往期精彩:


美国总统|《经济学人》:白宫迎来疯子,世界随之癫狂

诺奖得主谈新政府|《全球脑库》:白宫迎来特朗普,人们的日子会更苦

诗图一家|《人生就是一场旅行》:该走的必然会走,该来的定然会来

趣图+趣文|《善于发现的眼睛》:点滴之间有深意,细微之处见精神

寿命那点儿事儿|《天下人》:长命百岁难,难于上青天

财富世界|《2016年全球财富报告》:财富往哪里流,有它自己的规律


注:

1:公众号后台回复“20170211”,可获取本期《经济学人》下载方式。

2:本文为原创,若发现不错,欢迎转发共享,转载请注明出处。

3:英文转自《经济学人》,非商业用途,仅限个人学习之目的。

4:可将本公众号设为“置顶公众号”,第一时间收到最新消息。

5:若有任何方面的问题,可随时联系进行沟通

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