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革命的意义|《经济学人》:革命可以无罪,造反亦可有理

2017-03-09 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读革命,是一个很能“撩动”人们情绪的词儿。支持者对其能激情满满、摇旗呐喊或怒发冲冠、血脉偾张,反对者对其会惶惶不安、魂飞魄散或不择手段对其斩草除根。当然,革命的“网”再大,也会有漏网之鱼,总不乏对其无动于衷、呆若木鸡之人。


革命,其本义指变革天命,因为,在古代,天子受天命而统,故更替朝代,谓之革命。最早见于《周易·革卦·彖传》:“天地革而四时成,汤武革命,顺乎天而应乎人。” 


“革命”原用于君主制朝代之变革,日本人将之略微扩大语义,亦用于共和制变革君主制,如把大清王朝的命革掉的孙中山等人,就被称为“革命党”。后来,“革命”词义更加扩大,泛指各个领域的重大革新,已不限于政治领域。


尽管革命已不限于政治领域,但世界上最能吸引眼球的革命,依然是政治领域发生的革命,尤其是政治领域发生的“大革命”。纵观人类发展的整个历史进程,革命着实不少,但能称得上“大”的,却少之又少。


两百多年前1789年7月14日,法国爆发了一场“大”革命,统治法国多个世纪的波旁王朝君主制土崩瓦解。法国经历了史诗般的转变,过往的贵族和宗教特权,不断受到自由主义政治组织及上街抗议民众的冲击,旧的观念逐渐被全新的天赋人权、三权分立等思想所取代。


法国大革命时期流行的口号 “自由、平等、博爱”,早已列入法兰西共和国宪法,成为法兰西共和国的国家格言。两三百年过去了,到如今,法国人民是否享用了梦想中的自由、是否拥有了期望中的平等、是否依然还怀揣理想中的博爱,只能是如人饮水、冷暖自知了。


马克思曾说,经济基础决定上层建筑。马克思说的,是颠扑不破的真理。曾经的法国大革命可以从这个角度看,当下正如火如荼、快马加鞭进行着的法国大选,也可以从这个角度看。


法国总统将在4月23日和5月7日通过“多数两轮投票制”选出,第一轮投票若无人得票超过半数,得票率最高的两名候选人将进入第二轮对决。高喊“法国优先”的国民阵线领袖勒庞、被妻子吃空饷丑闻缠身的共和党人菲永、以独立中间派身份出征的前经济部长马克龙,热战正酣


这次,法国人民是否又能再来一场震惊世界的“大革命”,全球都在屏着呼吸、目不转睛地盯着看。


France’s next revolution

法国的下一次革命


The vote that could wreck the European Union

这次法国大选,有可能葬送欧盟

Why the French presidential election will have consequences far beyond its borders

法国大选所带来的影响,会远远超出法国,为啥子呢


IT HAS been many years since France last had a revolution, or even a serious attempt at reform. Stagnation, both political and economic, has been the hallmark of a country where little has changed for decades, even as power has rotated between the established parties of left and right.


Until now. This year’s presidential election, the most exciting in living memory, promises an upheaval. The Socialist and Republican parties, which have held power since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, could be eliminated in the first round of a presidential ballot on April 23rd. French voters may face a choice between two insurgent candidates: Marine Le Pen, the charismatic leader of the National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the upstart leader of a liberal movement, En Marche! (On the Move!), which he founded only last year.


The implications of these insurgencies are hard to exaggerate. They are the clearest example yet of a global trend: that the old divide between left and right is growing less important than a new one between open and closed. The resulting realignment will have reverberations far beyond France’s borders. It could revitalise the European Union, or wreck it.


Les misérables

痛苦是根源


The revolution’s proximate cause is voters’ fury at the uselessness and self-dealing of their ruling class. The Socialist president, François Hollande, is so unpopular that he is not running for re-election. The established opposition, the centre-right Republican party, saw its chances sink on March 1st when its standard-bearer, François Fillon, revealed that he was being formally investigated for paying his wife and children nearly €1m ($1.05m) of public money for allegedly fake jobs. Mr Fillon did not withdraw from the race, despite having promised to do so. But his chances of winning are dramatically weakened.


Further fuelling voters’ anger is their anguish at the state(双关:既有情况状况的意思,也有国家政权的意思) of France. One poll last year found that French people are the most pessimistic on Earth, with 81% grumbling that the world is getting worse and only 3% saying that it is getting better. Much of that gloom is economic. France’s economy has long been sluggish; its vast state, which absorbs 57% of GDP, has sapped the country’s vitality. A quarter of French youths are unemployed. Of those who have jobs, few can find permanent ones of the sort their parents enjoyed. In the face of high taxes and heavy regulation those with entrepreneurial vim have long headed abroad, often to London. But the malaise goes well beyond stagnant living standards. Repeated terrorist attacks have jangled nerves, forced citizens to live under a state of emergency and exposed deep cultural rifts in the country with Europe’s largest Muslim community.


Many of these problems have built up over decades, but neither the left nor the right has been able to get to grips with them. France’s last serious attempt at ambitious economic reform, an overhaul of pensions and social security, was in the mid-1990s under President Jacques Chirac. It collapsed in the face of massive strikes. Since then, few have even tried. Nicolas Sarkozy talked a big game, but his reform agenda was felled by the financial crisis of 2007-08. Mr Hollande had a disastrous start, introducing a 75% top tax rate. He was then too unpopular to get much done. After decades of stasis, it is hardly surprising that French voters want to throw the bums out.


Both Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen tap into that frustration. But they offer radically different diagnoses of what ails France and radically different remedies. Ms Le Pen blames outside forces and promises to protect voters with a combination of more barriers and greater social welfare. She has effectively distanced herself from her party’s anti-Semitic past (even evicting her father from the party he founded), but she appeals to those who want to shut out the rest of the world. She decries globalisation as a threat to French jobs and Islamists as fomenters of terror who make it perilous to wear a short skirt in public. The EU is “an anti-democratic monster”. She vows to close radical mosques, stanch the flow of immigrants to a trickle, obstruct foreign trade, swap the euro for a resurrected French franc and call a referendum on leaving the EU.


Mr Macron’s instincts are the opposite. He thinks that more openness would make France stronger. He is staunchly pro-trade, pro-competition, pro-immigration and pro-EU. He embraces cultural change and technological disruption. He thinks the way to get more French people working is to reduce cumbersome labour protections, not add to them. Though he has long been short on precise policies (he was due to publish a manifesto as The Economist went to press), Mr Macron is pitching himself as the pro-globalisation revolutionary.


Look carefully, and neither insurgent is a convincing outsider(体制外人士). Ms Le Pen has spent her life in politics; her success has been to make a hitherto extremist party socially acceptable. Mr Macron was Mr Hollande’s economy minister. His liberalising programme will probably be less bold than that of the beleaguered Mr Fillon, who has promised to trim the state payroll by 500,000 workers and slash the labour code. Both revolutionaries would have difficulty enacting their agendas. Even if she were to prevail, Ms Le Pen’s party would not win a majority in the national assembly. Mr Macron barely has a party.


La France ouverte ou la France forteresse?

门户开放vs闭关锁国?


Nonetheless, they represent a repudiation of the status quo. A victory for Mr Macron would be evidence that liberalism still appeals to Europeans. A victory for Ms Le Pen would make France poorer, more insular and nastier. If she pulls France out of the euro, it would trigger a financial crisis and doom a union that, for all its flaws, has promoted peace and prosperity in Europe for six decades. Vladimir Putin would love that. It is perhaps no coincidence that Ms Le Pen’s party has received a hefty loan from a Russian bank and Mr Macron’s organisation has suffered more than 4,000 hacking attacks.


With just over two months to go, it seems Ms Le Pen is unlikely to clinch the presidency. Polls show her winning the first round but losing the run-off. But in this extraordinary election, anything could happen. France has shaken the world before. It could do so again.



往期精彩:


大英帝国|《经济学人》:失去欧洲的英国,是没有方向的英国

遥望世界2050|《普华永道》:中国和印度,将领跑全球

诗图一家|《命运遐想》:命里有时终须有,命里无时莫强求

诺奖得主谈新政府|《全球脑库》:白宫迎来特朗普,人们的日子会更苦

寿命那点儿事儿|《天下人》:长命百岁难,难于上青天

趣图+趣文|《善于发现的眼睛》:点滴之间有深意,细微之处见精神


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