地球村儿|《全球脑库》：全球化一直在进行，只是风险程度有所不同

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我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

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本期导读：全球化的历史，已有四五百年的时间，其发展历程经历了若干阶段，不过，全球化作为时代的显著特征，则是从20世纪70年代开始的。我们所处的当今这个世界，全球化发展趋势更加明显，其影响无所不在。如今，全球化的存在早已是一个不争的事实。

然而，由于人们在全球化进程中所处的地位、历史文化传统、价值认同背景不同，人们对全球化并没有达成共识。不过，总体来讲，全球化是一个空间上的概念，是对人类社会发展、交往跨越民族、国家和地区界限，逐渐成为一个整体的反映，同时也是一个时间上的称谓，是人类社会发展联系和交往不断增强历史的反映。

全球化是世界历史发展的必然，是资本、经济、科技、政治、文化等要素交互作用的结果。全球化趋势对各个民族国家的发展已经并将继续产生深远影响。全球化本身是一个充满矛盾的过程，既有一体化趋势，又有分化倾向；既有国际化趋势，又有本土化倾向。当前的全球化趋势是一个复杂的矛盾体，我们每个人都身处其中。

A More Dangerous Globalism

一种更为危险的全球主义

“America first,” thumps Donald Trump. “Britain first,” say the advocates of Brexit. “France first,” crows Marine Le Pen and her National Front. “Russia first,” proclaims Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin. With so much emphasis on national sovereignty nowadays, globalization appears doomed.

美国的特朗普要“美国优先”，英国的脱欧支持者们要“英国优先”，法国的勒庞及其领导的国民阵线要“法国优先”，俄罗斯的普京及其掌管的克里姆林宫要“俄罗斯优先”。如今，强调民族权益的音调是如此之高，全球化貌似已穷途末路。

It’s not. The struggle playing out today is not one of globalism versus anti-globalism. Rather, the world is poised between two models of integration: one is multilateral and internationalist; the other is bilateral and imperialist. Throughout the modern age, the world has seesawed between them.

其实不然。当下，正在进行着的斗争，并不是全球主义与反全球主义之间的斗争。实际上，当前的世界，正处于两种全球一体化模式的夹缝之间，一种是多边的国际主义模式，一种是双边的帝国主义模式。现代历史的整个进程中，世界一直在这两种模式之间摇摆不定。

Since 1945, internationalists have had the upper hand. They advocate cooperation and multilateral institutions to promote global public goods like peace, security, financial stability, and environmental sustainability. Theirs is a model that constrains national sovereignty by binding states to shared norms, conventions, and treaties.

自1945年二战结束以来，多边的国际主义模式一直占据上风。国际主义模式强调相互合作，重视多边国际制度，以促进诸如和平、安全、金融稳定、环境可持续等全球公共产品的供给。这种模式通过让主权国家政府遵循共同的国际规范、公约和条约，对民族国家主权形成一定的约束。

The year 2016 tipped the scales toward bilateralists, who regard national sovereignty as an end in itself. The fewer external constraints, the better: peace and security result from a balance of great powers. Theirs is a model that favors the strong and punishes the weak, and that rewards competitors at the expense of cooperators.

2016年，世界向双边模式发生偏移。双边模式把民族国家主权本身视为最高目的，并认为，外部约束越少，就会越好，和平与安全源于大国力量的均衡。这种模式有利于大国、强国，有损于小国、弱国，参与竞争能带来好处，进行合作却会吃亏。

For most of the nineteenth century, integration was a hybrid of internationalism and imperialism. Free trade became gospel, mass migration was welcomed, and countries embraced new global norms, like the First Geneva Convention, concluded in 1864 to cover the treatment of the sick and wounded on the battlefield. Globalizers could also be bullies: the 1842 Treaty of Nanking between Britain and China subordinated the Middle Kingdom to the West. And bilateral imperialism’s ugliest face was reflected in Europeans’ carve-up of Africa into exclusive possessions.

对于十九世纪的大多数期间，全球一体化杂糅着多边国际主义与双边帝国主义，自由贸易蓬勃发展，大量移民受到欢迎，各个国家向新的全球规范敞开怀抱，比如，1864年缔结的旨在改善战地伤病者境遇的《第一版日内瓦公约》。不过，全球化推手们也会倚强凌弱，英中1842年《南京条约》就把“中央帝国”强扭到西方体系之中。双边帝国主义模式最丑恶的一面，在欧洲国家把非洲强占为自己的排他性权益上表现的淋漓尽致。

In the most horrific period in human history, bilateralism had the upper hand. Between 1914 and 1945, the pursuit of national grandeur led to ruinous economic rivalry and mass violence. The Wall Street crash of 1929 kicked the legs out from under a struggling international order. Country after country turned inward; by 1933, world trade collapsed to one-third its 1929 level.

人类历史上最恐怖的时期，是双边帝国主义模式占据上风的时期。1914至1945年间，对国家至上的追求，导致恶性竞争、经济破败、暴力泛滥。1929年华尔街股市暴跌，导致摇摇欲坠的国际秩序彻底坍塌。各个国家争相向内看，到1933年，世界贸易规模骤减至只有1929年三分之一的水平。

Fueled by racism and fears of overcrowding, globalism turned predatory: powerful countries imposed uneven trade pacts on neighbors and partners, or simply overran them. Japan set its sights on Manchuria in 1931 to create a puppet state, and invaded China in 1937. The Soviets dealt with Russian borderlands in the same spirit. The Nazis forced treaties on weaker neighbors and seized others, then sought to depopulate Slavic lands to make way for Teutonic settlers.

受种族主义鼓动和对人口过多担忧的促动，全球主义开始变得具有侵略性，强国强行推广不公平的贸易条约，或直接进行贸易侵略。日本于1931年瞄上满洲建立傀儡政权，并于1937年大举入侵中国。苏联也以同样方式对待周边邻国。纳粹德国不是把条约强加给邻国，就是直接进行侵占，还把驱散侵占土地上的斯拉夫人，为条顿居民腾地方。

The brutality of bilateralism prompted US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill to draft the Atlantic Charter in 1941. A blueprint for a post-war order, it declared that freedom was the cornerstone of peace and that bilateralism had to be curbed. No more grabbing. No more tariff bullying. Freedom of the seas.

面对双边主义带来的惨痛教训，美国总统罗斯福和英国首相丘吉尔于1941年起草了《大西洋宪章》，为战后秩序提供蓝本。宪章宣称，自由是和平的基石，双边主义需予以遏制，不能再强取豪夺，不能再贸易霸凌，要保证国际海域自由航行。

What came of the Allies’ victory in World War II and the Atlantic Charter was a Global New Deal: by agreeing to play by international rules and institutions, countries could participate in the post-war bonanza. European integration was at the core of this experiment in multilateral globalism; with Franco-German reconciliation, Europe, a chronic conflict zone, became a region of exemplary cooperators.

二战同盟国的胜利和《大西洋宪章》的签署，为世界带来了一份“全球性新协议”：只要同意遵守国际规则和制度，各个国家都可共享战后的繁荣发展。欧洲一体化便是这场多边全球主义实验的重中之重，法德和解，让久经战乱的欧洲一跃成为区域合作的典范。

Restraining national sovereignty allowed global trade, investment, and migration to buoy post-war prosperity. Billions escaped poverty. Relative peace was maintained.

对民族国家主权进行限制，带来了全球贸易的发展，投资的增加，移民的增多，促进了战后的繁荣，世界范围内，亿万民众脱离了贫困，全球局势，也维持了相对和平。

But the Global New Deal seems to have run its course. For too many people, the world became messy, risky, stultifying, and threatening – the opposite of what the Atlantic Charter envisioned. After 1980, global integration was accompanied by rising domestic inequality. While the horizon of opportunities widened for educated cosmopolitans in big cities, the bonds between citizens weakened as national social contracts were dismantled.

不过，那份“全球性新协议”貌似已然走到尽头。对很多人来说，整个世界已变得混乱不堪、风险满满、百无聊赖、威胁重重，与《大西洋宪章》所憧憬的完全相反。1980年后，随着全球一体化的进行，国内不平等问题逐渐上升。尽管对大都市中受过教育具有全球视野的精英阶层来说，机遇越来越多，但随着传统社会契约逐渐走入历史，普通民众之间的联系却在弱化。

As the blurring of global divides deepened domestic cleavages, the stage was set for bilateralists to come storming back. In the wings, leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin yearned for a return to a world of muscular sovereignty, unrestrained by multilateral niceties. They now have more company in key countries.

全球层面的分野逐渐模糊，国家内部的鸿沟却在扩大，双边主义者们随之找到用武之地，汹涌归来。视野所见，像俄罗斯总统普京之类的国家领导人，渴望 “肌肉主权”世界的回归，以免于遭受多边主义繁文缛节的限制。当下，在主要国家，这类领导人越来越多。

Two days after his inauguration, Trump announced that the US would have “another chance” to seize Iraqi oil. He then withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and vowed to re-negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. The future of the hard-won Paris climate agreement is now in doubt. Charges of currency manipulation and threats of protectionist measures have intensified. With the UK, which gave the world free trade in the 1840s, having now decided to go it alone, the old Atlantic Charter allies are putting national sovereignty ahead of global public goods.

特朗普就任美国总统仅两天后就宣布，美国会拥有“另一次机会”来获得伊拉克的石油。随后，特朗普还让美国退出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协议”，并声言要对“北美自贸协议”进行再谈判。好不容易达成的“巴黎气候变化协议”，目前看来，前景也已堪忧。对他国操纵货币的指控以及威胁采取保护主义措施的声音，都一直在加码。而早在1840年代就在世界范围内大力倡导自由贸易的英国，现在也已决定脱离欧盟，自己单干。《大西洋宪章》的两个关键国家，都把民族国家权益放在了首位，而完全置全球公共产品于不顾。

Now the global spotlight turns to France and its looming presidential election. At stake is the sputtering Franco-German engine that has driven European integration and kept it at the center of the post-war multilateral system. A victory for Le Pen in early May would spell the end of the EU, leaving German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the final pillar of a crumbling world order. The country most refashioned by post-1945 internationalism would be its last bastion, surrounded by bilateralists in France, the UK, and Russia, with its main patron, the US, in the hands of nativists.

当下，全球的目光又转向了法国及其将要举行的总统选举。这次处于风暴核心的，是引领欧洲一体化并让其成为战后多边体系重心而现在却有散架风险的德法这台“发动机”。五月初若勒庞赢得法国大选，则会为欧盟敲响丧钟，让德国总理默克尔孤守摇摇欲坠的世界秩序。德国，作为1945年后受国际主义影响最大的国家，或将成为国际主义的最后堡垒，而周边的法国、英国、俄罗斯，双边主义横行，战后国际主义旗手美国，现在也掌控在本土主义者们的手中。

Imagine the scene a few weeks after a Le Pen victory, when the G7 leaders gather in a gilded hotel in Taormina, Sicily. The US and Canada are feuding over NAFTA. The UK is squabbling with France and Germany over Brexit. Japan is reeling from the demise of the TPP. And, as they turn their backs on global commitments, refugees, drowning by the boatload in the surrounding sea, provide an epitaph for a bygone era.

可以想象，勒庞赢得大选几周后，七国集团领导人将会在意大利西西里岛金碧辉煌的酒店相聚，美国与加拿大就北美自由贸易协定互掐，英国与法德两国就脱欧大吵，日本仍在为跨太平洋伙伴关系协议的夭折而烦忧。各国领导人置全球责任于不顾，与此同时，满载难民的船只在西西里岛周边的地中海沉没，成为一个过往时代的祭品。

Contributors:

Jeremy Adelman: Director of the Global History Lab at Princeton University（普林斯顿大学全球史研究所主任）。

Anne-Laure Delatte: Director of the Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationale, Paris（巴黎“前瞻性研究与国际信息中心”主任）。

往期精彩：

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注：

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