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巴以问题|《经济学人》:土地换和平vs土地换民主

2017-05-25 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读:遍览全球有人居住的地方,数中东地区最为热闹,阿富汗、伊拉克战争至今仍未远去,叙利亚危局绵延好几年到现在仍在持续,伊斯兰国于喧闹中实现了勃兴,土耳其结束了奥斯曼帝国解体以来一直实行的政治体制赋予了总统以前所未有的权柄,沙特、伊朗这对儿宿敌之间的平衡在特朗普与沙特签订有史以来最大武器买卖订单后显现出微妙的演变趋势,遍布土耳其、伊拉克、叙利亚等国的库尔德民族问题一直在小火慢炖,隶属于大中东的北非地区等国至今政局稳定仍是个大问题,等等等等。


所有这一切,与巴以问题相比,则都会显得有点小巫见大巫。巴以问题的背后,隐藏着深刻的历史根源,既有宗教、文化、民族等因素,也有大国干预的因素,各种因素互相影响、激化,使得巴以冲突的复杂性非同一般。


其中,巴勒斯坦与以色列对同一块土地提出排他性的主权要求是问题的根本原因。犹太移民定居点问题和耶路撒冷地位问题,都是巴以和平之路上的严重障碍。这些问题若不解决,巴以冲突就不会停止,中东也难以实现真正的和平。


闻名全球的中东战事,大大小小,历来一直不断。往小里说,今天扣个人质,明天死几个人,已经成为家常便饭;往大里说,大型战事如中东战争,到目前为止已发生过五次


1948-1949年第一次中东战争,关键词为“生存”。


1947年11月30日,耶路撒冷和一些阿犹混合城镇,爆发了犹太人和阿拉伯人之间的激烈武装冲突,这被称为是巴勒斯坦“非正式战争”的开始。之后,1948年1月—3月,双方不断发生冲突,阿拉伯联盟国家埃及、外约旦、伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩的军队相继进入巴勒斯坦,巴勒斯坦战争正式开始。在英国支持下,阿拉伯联盟的正规军拥有大炮、坦克、飞机和英国教官,而新生的以色列只有少得可怜的游击队和在纳粹屠刀下逃生并得以建立自己国家的兴奋。战争一开始,阿拉伯国家军队优势明显。5月17日,开战第三天,美国代表向联合国安理会递交了一份议案,建议安理会命令战争双方在36小时内停火。苏联代表也要求安理会立即表决,并指责阿拉伯国家发动进攻,要求它们停止行动。英国最初反对美国的建议,并声称继续给予阿拉伯国家援助。但不久,英国又同意了美国的建议,并撤走了阿拉伯军团的英国军官,停止向埃及、伊拉克、外约旦提供武器。6月11日,阿以双方同意停火四周。巴勒斯坦战争从阿拉伯出兵开始到以色列与叙利亚签订停战协定为止,共历时15个月,战争以阿拉伯国家失败,以色列获胜而告终。


1956-1957年第二次中东战争,关键词为“出海口”。


1956年7月26日,埃及总统纳赛尔宣布把苏伊士运河国有化,对于占据苏伊士运河这一世界级交通枢纽的英法两国而言,是可忍孰不可忍。为解决兵力不足,法国首先提出邀请以色列加入。对以色列来说,早已对埃及不准它的船只通过亚喀巴湾的蒂朗海峡和苏伊士运河不满,早在1955年11月就制定了一个入侵加沙地带和西奈半岛的作战计划,所以,两者一拍即合。1956年10月29日,以色列发动闪电战,占领埃及苏伊土运河以东的加沙地带和西奈半岛的大部分,逼近运河。这次战争中,除英法两国,所有人都是赢家,这场战争是在美、苏两个大国都不希望中东燃起战火的时期发生的。当时,苏联正身陷匈牙利动乱之中,美国正忙于总统选举。所以战端一开,苏联即声称如不停战将不惜对英国本土实施核攻击,美国则命令其全球驻军进入战备状态。英、法政府在美苏的强硬态度面前屈服了,在政治上和军事上都遭到彻底失败。反观以色列,解除了埃及对蒂朗海峡的封锁,亚喀巴湾的航行从此畅通无阻,是赢家。就连埃及也实现了运河国有化和使以军撤离西奈半岛,达到了其政治目的,也算是一个赢家。


1967年第三次中东战争,关键词为“安全”。 


第三次中东战争又称六天战争,苏联的欺骗促使以色列先发制人。1964年,阿拉伯国家出现了团结合作的局面。阿方甚至计划改变约旦河上游的流向,使之不被以色列利用。而巴勒斯坦解放组织1964年成立后,其军事力量法塔赫为了把以色列赶出巴勒斯坦,开始不断地袭击以色列,令以色列防不胜防。无独有偶。莫斯科、开罗、大马士革传出了“以色列军队正在北部集结兵力,准备进攻叙利亚”的消息。以色列再三要求苏联大使到现场调查,澄清以色列是否真的在集结兵力,但遭到拒绝。因此,战争的真正根源在克里姆林宫。1967年6月5日,以色列出动了全部空军,对埃及、叙利亚和约旦等阿拉伯国家发动了大规模突袭,以色列空军几乎倾巢而出,甚至连教练机也投入了战斗,对阿拉伯国家25个空军基地进行了袭击。通过这次战争,以色列占领了加沙地带和埃及的西奈半岛,约旦河西岸,耶路撒冷旧城和叙利亚的戈兰高地共6.5万平方公里的土地,战争中有100万阿拉伯人和巴勒斯坦人逃离家园,沦为难民。


1973-1974年第四次中东战争,关键词为“复仇”。


在第三次中东战争中,以军对埃叙发动突然袭击,占领大片领土,阿拉伯国家蒙受了巨大损失和耻辱。以牙还牙,收复失地,成了埃、叙军政领导人的一项非常紧迫而艰巨的任务。埃及总统萨达特在上任后的第三天,便召集军队高级将领开会。10月6日是穆斯林的斋月节,又是犹太教的赎罪日。斋月节里,阿拉伯人白天不吃饭,缩短工作时间,减少活动。所以,以色列认为,阿拉伯国家决不会在这一天发起进攻。赎罪日是犹太人的绝对休息日,从日出至日落,不吃、不喝、不吸烟、不广播。大多数官兵都留在营中,前沿士兵很少。埃、叙就选择了这一天突袭。萨达特还同叙利亚总统阿萨德多次协商,以优势兵力从西、北两线对以军实施夹击,收复部分或全部失地。


1982年第五次中东战争,关键词为“安宁”。


1982年6月6日,以色列借口其驻英国大使被巴勒斯坦游击队刺杀,出动陆海空军10万多人,对黎巴嫩境内的巴勒斯坦解放组织游击队和叙利亚驻军发动了大规模进攻,只用了几天时间,就占领了黎巴嫩的半壁江山。这是自第四次中东战争以来,以色列和阿拉伯国家之间最大的一次战争。这次黎以战争的起因,总的说来,仍是巴勒斯坦问题争端的继续。以色列入侵黎巴嫩的主要目的是消灭巴勒斯坦解放组织,谋求在黎巴嫩境内建立一个亲以政权,挤走叙利亚在黎巴嫩的驻军。战争开始后,以军仅用了8天时间,即占领黎巴嫩领土约3000千平方公里,摧毁了巴解游击队在黎南部的全部基地,消灭了巴解大量有生力量,缴获了巴解在黎南部的全部仓库,并将巴解总部机关2000人和武装人员5000人包围在贝鲁特西区及南部,同时,给予了叙军以沉重打击。8月12日,巴解宣布愿意撤出贝鲁特西区。


The legacy of the six-day war

六日战争后遗症


Why Israel needs a Palestinian state

为啥以色列需要一个巴勒斯坦国家

More than ever, land for peace also means land for democracy

情势发展到现在,土地换和平,也就意味着土地换民主


THE victory of Israel over the Arab armies that encircled it in 1967 was so swift and absolute that, many Jews thought, the divine hand must have tipped the scales. Before the six-day war Israel had feared another Holocaust; thereafter it became an empire of sorts. Awestruck, the Jews took the holy sites of Jerusalem and the places of their biblical stories. But the land came with many Palestinians whom Israel could neither expel nor absorb. Was Providence smiling on Israel, or testing it?


For the past 50 years, Israel has tried to have it both ways: taking the land by planting Jewish settlements on it; and keeping the Palestinians unenfranchised under military occupation, denied either their own state or political equality within Israel. Palestinians have damaged their cause through decades of indiscriminate violence. Yet their dispossession is a reproach to Israel, which is by far the stronger party and claims to be a model democracy.


Israel’s “temporary” occupation has endured for half a century. The peace process that created “interim” Palestinian autonomy, due to last just five years before a final deal, has dragged on for more than 20. A Palestinian state is long overdue. Rather than resist it, Israel should be the foremost champion of the future Palestine that will be its neighbour. This is not because the intractable conflict is the worst in the Middle East or, as many once thought, the central cause of regional instability: the carnage of the civil wars in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere disproves such notions. The reason Israel must let the Palestinian people go is to preserve its own democracy.


The Trump card

特朗普这张王牌


Unexpectedly, there may be a new opportunity to make peace: Donald Trump wants to secure “the ultimate deal” and is due to visit the Holy Land on May 22nd, during his first foreign trip. The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, appears as nervous as the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, seems upbeat. Mr Trump has, rightly, urged Israel to curb settlement-building. Israel wants him to keep his promise to move the American embassy to Jerusalem. He should hold off until he is ready to go really big: recognise Palestine at the same time and open a second embassy in Jerusalem to talk to it.


The outlines of peace are well known. Palestinians would accept the Jewish state born from the war of 1947-48 (made up of about three-quarters of the British mandate of Palestine). In return, Israel would allow the creation of a Palestinian state in the remaining lands it occupied in 1967 (about one-quarter). Parcels could be swapped to take in the main settlements, and Jerusalem would have to be shared. Palestinian refugees would return mostly to their new state, not Israel.


The fact that such a deal is familiar does not make it likely. Mr Netanyahu and Mr Abbas will probably string out the process—and try to ensure the other gets blamed for failure. Distracted by scandals, Mr Trump may lose interest; Mr Netanyahu may lose power (he faces several police investigations); and Mr Abbas may die (he is 82 and a smoker). The limbo of semi-war and semi-peace is, sadly, a tolerable option for both.


Nevertheless, the creation of a Palestinian state is the second half of the world’s promise, still unredeemed, to split British-era Palestine into a Jewish and an Arab state. Since the six-day war, Israel has been willing to swap land for peace, notably when it returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982. But the conquests of East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip were different. They lie at the heart of Israelis’ and Palestinians’ rival histories, and add the intransigence of religion to a nationalist conflict. Early Zionist leaders accepted partition grudgingly; Arab ones tragically rejected it outright. In 1988 the Palestine Liberation Organisation accepted a state on part of the land, but Israeli leaders resisted the idea until 2000. Mr Netanyahu himself spoke of a (limited) Palestinian state only in 2009.


Another reason for the failure to get two states is violence. Extremists on both sides set out to destroy the Oslo accords of 1993, the first step to a deal. The Palestinian uprising in 2000-05 was searing. Wars after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and Gaza in 2005 made everything worse. As blood flowed, the vital ingredient of peace—trust—died.


Most Israelis are in no rush to try offering land for peace again. Their security has improved, the economy is booming and Arab states are courting Israel for intelligence on terrorists and an alliance against Iran. The Palestinians are weak and divided, and might not be able to make a deal. Mr Abbas, though moderate, is unpopular; and he lost Gaza to his Islamist rivals, Hamas. What if Hamas also takes over the West Bank?


All this makes for a dangerous complacency: that, although the conflict cannot be solved, it can be managed indefinitely. Yet the never-ending subjugation of Palestinians will erode Israel’s standing abroad and damage its democracy at home. Its politics are turning towards ethno-religious chauvinism, seeking to marginalise Arabs and Jewish leftists, including human-rights groups. The government objected even to a novel about a Jewish-Arab love affair. As Israel grows wealthier, the immiseration of Palestinians becomes more disturbing. Its predicament grows more acute as the number of Palestinians between the Jordan river and the Mediterranean catches up with that of Jews. Israel cannot hold on to all of the “Land of Israel”, keep its predominantly Jewish identity and remain a proper democracy. To save democracy, and prevent a slide to racism or even apartheid, it has to give up the occupied lands.


Co-operation, not collaboration

需要友好合作,而非协力通敌


Thus, if Mr Abbas’s Palestinian Authority (PA) is weak, then Israel needs to build it up, not undermine it. Without progress to a state, the PA cannot maintain security co-operation with Israel for ever; nor can it regain its credibility. Israel should let Palestinians move more freely and remove all barriers to their goods (a freer market would make Israel richer, too). It should let the PA expand beyond its ink-spots. Israel should voluntarily halt all settlements, at least beyond its security barrier.


Israel is too strong for a Palestinian state to threaten its existence. In fact, such a state is vital to its future. Only when Palestine is born will Israel complete the victory of 1967.


从1947年到现在巴以双方所占领土变化示意图



往期精彩:


国际代孕|《经济学人》:能当父母,是件好事,而非犯罪

中国故事|《世纪之变》:百年光影,忽闪而过,尽在不言

一带一路|《中印关系》:北京在扬眉吐气,新德里在生闷气

遥望世界2050|《普华永道》:中国和印度,将领跑全球

诗图一家|《生死之间》:世事无定,生命短促,珍惜当下

驻足人生|《幽灵岛》:你存在的意义,完全由你自己定义


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