美国政治|《经济学人》:美国理应变更好,现在却变得更糟

2017-07-04 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读政治制度是指特定社会中的统治阶级通过组织政权以实现其政治统治的原则和方式的总和。政治制度随着人类社会政治现象的出现而产生,是人类出于维护共同体的安全和利益,维持一定的公共秩序和分配方式的目的,对各种政治关系所做的一系列规定。


奴隶制政治制度是人类历史上最早的政治制度,由氏族社会的管理形式演变而来,在某些形式上带有原始制度的痕迹,神权学说是奴隶制政治制度的理论基础。


资本主义政治制度是最后的也是最高发展阶段的剥削阶级政治制度,其显著特点是分权、制衡、政党制、代议制、普选权和限期任职制,种类繁多较多,就主权归属而言,可分为君主制和共和制;就国家元首、立法机关和行政机关之间的关系而言,可分为总统制和议会内阁制等。


社会主义政治制度是建立在生产资料公有制基础上的、由以工人阶级为首的广大人民掌握政权、对反对社会主义的敌对势力实行专政的政治制度,与历史上所有剥削阶级类型的政治制度有本质的不同。其实质是无产阶级专政,是新型的民主,即占人口最大多数的劳动人民享有民主,并按照民主集中制原则建立起来的政治制度,其领导力量是工人阶级政党,其理论基础是马克思列宁主义。


政治体制是关于国家管理形式、机构设置、实际措施等的具体制度。政治制度是关于国家权力的性质组织、分配、运作等方面的规范法度,主要是指国体和政体的统一。政治体制可理解为局部的微观的政治制度、是政治制度在政治生活过程中的具体化;它受政治制度的制约,也影响国家根本政治制度的实施和巩固。


美国是联邦制国家,政权组织形式为总统制,实行三权分立与制衡相结合的政治制度和两党制的政党制度。美国的国家组织是依据三权分立与联邦制度这两大政治思想而制定,当初在起草宪法时因恐权力过分集中于个人或某一部门将危害人民的自由,因而将立法、司法、行政三种权力分别独立,互相制衡,以避免政府滥权。


American politics

美国政治

A divided country

(Divided States of America)

美利坚分众国

Donald Trump was elected to shake Washington out of its paralysis. He is adding to America’s problems.

美国民众选特朗普本是让他祛除华盛顿的政治疾翳,而现在他却让问题变得更加严重。


JULY 4th ought to bring Americans together. It is a day to celebrate how 13 young colonies united against British rule to begin their great experiment in popular government. But this July 4th Americans are riven by mutual incomprehension: between Republicans and Democrats, yes, but also between factory workers and university students, country folk and city-dwellers. And then there is President Donald Trump, not only a symptom of America’s divisions but a cause of them, too.

七月四日,应是美国的团结日,是用来庆祝13个殖民地团结一致反抗英国统治并进行民选政府伟大实践的日子。但是,今年的七月四日,美国民众却困扰于各种各样的隔阂,共和民主两党之间的自然少不了,而且还有工厂工人与大学学生之间的,以及乡下农村与城镇市民之间的。而美国总统特朗普,不仅是美国各种分野的一个症状,而且也是导致各种分野的一个原因。


Mr Trump won power partly because he spoke for voters who feel that the system is working against them, as our special report this week sets out. He promised that, by dredging Washington of the elites and lobbyists too stupid or self-serving to act for the whole nation, he would fix America’s politics.

特朗普之所以能赢得总统大权,部分原因在于,他声称是给认为美国政治体制有损自身利益的选民代言,正如我们本周专题文章中所报道的那样。特朗普曾承诺,为了美国国家的整体利益,通过把愚蠢、自利的精英及说客从华盛顿清理出去,就能医治好美国的政治疾翳。


His approach is not working. Five months into his first term, Mr Trump presides over a political culture that is even more poisonous than when he took office. His core voters are remarkably loyal. Many business people still believe that he will bring tax cuts and deregulation. But their optimism stands on ever-shakier ground. The Trump presidency has been plagued by poor judgment and missed opportunities. The federal government is already showing the strain. Sooner or later, the harm will spread beyond the beltway and into the economy.

特朗普的办法没能奏效。到现在,特朗普第一任期已五月有余,目前他所面临的政治生态甚至要比他就任时更为糟糕。不过,特朗普的铁杆支持者们的忠诚度不是一般的高,现在依然有很多商界人士相信,特朗普将会兑现其减税、减少规制的承诺。但是,如此乐观的态度,其现实依据却是少之又少。特朗普这位总统,错误判断连连,机会错失无数,联邦政府现在已感受到了压力,恶性后果迟早会冲出首府华盛顿,并蔓延至整个经济体。


From sea to shining sea

从伟大到再次伟大


注: 1. “from sea to shining sea”是一句歌词,源自美国歌曲作家Katharine Lee Bates 于1893年编写的爱国歌曲“America the Beautiful”,并与《圣经》诗篇第72章8节有着一定的渊源【He shall have dominion from sea to sea and from the river unto the ends of the earth." (Psalm 72:8),《圣经》诗篇第72章8节:他要执掌权柄,从这海直到那海,从大河直到地极。】 2. “从伟大到再次伟大”,灵感来自于特朗普的竞选口号“让美国再次伟大(Make America Great Again)”。


America’s loss of faith in politics did not start with Mr Trump. For decades, voters have complained about the gridlock in Washington and the growing influence of lobbyists, often those with the deepest pockets. Francis Fukuyama, a political theorist, blamed the decay on the “vetocracy”, a tangle of competing interests and responsibilities that can block almost any ambitious reform. When the world changes and the federal government cannot rise to the challenge, he argued, voters’ disillusion only grows.

美国民众对政治信任的流失,并不是始于特朗普。过去的几十年间,美国选民一直以来都对华盛顿的政治停滞有所抱怨,包括影响力不断增强的各种政治说客,特别是那些腰包深不可测的资本巨鳄。著名政治学者福山就曾把美国政治衰败的原因归咎于“否决政治”,利益纠葛、职责牵绊,阻碍了任何具有实质意义的改革。福山指出,世界在变,而美国联邦政府却没能做出反应来应对挑战,这样,美国选民的怨气自然就会滋长。


Mr Trump has also fuelled the mistrust. He has correctly identified areas where America needs reform, but botched his response—partly because of his own incontinent ego. Take tax. No one doubts that America’s tax code is a mess, stuffed full of loopholes and complexity. But Mr Trump’s reform plans show every sign of turning into a cut for the rich that leaves the code as baffling as ever. So, too, health care. Instead of reforming Obamacare, Republicans are in knots over a bill that would leave millions of Mr Trump’s own voters sicker and poorer.

特朗普本人也对那种政治不信任起到了火上浇油的作用。美国需要什么样的改革,特朗普心里是知道的,跟明镜儿似的,但做起来却完全是另一回事儿,部分原因在于,特朗普自我感觉非常良好。先拿税改来说吧,没有人不会觉得,美国的税收政策简直是一团糟,到处是漏洞,繁冗复杂之程度不是一般的高。但是,特朗普拿出的改革方案,最终受益的都是富裕阶层,这使得税收政策与之前的一样令人沮丧。医改也是一样,共和党人士不是要对奥巴马医改方案进行完善改进,而是沆瀣一气制定新的方案,而新法案将使几百万特朗普的支持者们病无可医、穷无可诉。


Institutions are vulnerable. The White House is right to complain about America’s overlapping and competing agencies, which spun too much red tape under President Barack Obama. Yet its attempt to reform this “administrative state” is wrecking the machinery the government needs to function. Mr Trump’s hostility has already undermined the courts, the intelligence services, the state department and America’s environmental watchdog. He wants deep budget cuts and has failed to fill presidential appointments. Of 562 key positions identified by the Washington Post, 390 remain without a nominee.

美国的政治体制受害最深。特朗普政府抱怨说,美国的政府机构重复交叉、职责不清,从奥巴马政府时期留下了太多的繁文缛节。但是,特朗普政府试图对“行政主导的政治体制”进行的改革,正在破坏美国政府正常运转所需的要件。特朗普的行为,已经给司法系统、情报系统、国务系统以及环保系统造成了负面影响。特朗普想大力削减预算开支,很多应由总统任命的职缺,到现在依然还空着。据《华盛顿邮报》统计,562个关键职缺中,有390个至今连个被提名人都还没有。


As harmful as what Mr Trump does is the way he does it. In the campaign he vowed to fight special interests. But his solution—to employ businesspeople too rich for lobbyists to buy—is no solution at all. Just look at Mr Trump himself: despite his half-hearted attempts to disentangle the presidency and the family business, nobody knows 45 33872 45 15287 0 0 2067 0 0:00:16 0:00:07 0:00:09 3140where one ends and the other begins. He promised to be a dealmaker, but his impulse to belittle his opponents and the miasma of scandal and leaks surrounding Russia’s role in the campaign have made the chances of cross-party co-operation even more remote. The lack of respect for expertise, such as the attacks on the Congressional Budget Office over its dismal scoring of health-care reform, only makes Washington more partisan. Most important, Mr Trump’s disregard for the truth cuts into what remains of the basis for cross-party agreement. If you cannot agree on the facts, all you have left is a benighted clash of rival tribes.

特朗普的所作所为是有害的,而他做事的方式方法,也同样有害。竞选期间,特朗普扬言要与特殊利益集团作斗争,但是,他的解决办法却是,招募政治说客没能力收买的富商巨贾进入政府,这是哪门子解决办法?!看看特朗普他本人就知道了,对于总统职权与家族业务之间分离的问题,特朗普半心半意,总统职权能伸展到哪儿,家族业务能发展到哪儿,没人能说得清。特朗普曾承诺,要消除隔阂、达成和解,但他碾压对方阵营的冲动以及愈演愈烈的“通俄门”丑闻,使得跨党派合作的机会越来越渺茫。特朗普对专业领域的技能缺少尊重,擅自攻击国会预算办公室对医改法案的评估,这只能让民主共和两党隔阂更深。最为严重的是,特朗普罔顾事实,这会彻底损害跨党合作的基础。若在事实的问题上都达不成一致,那么,相关各方只能像原始部族一样互相厮杀了。


Till selfish gain no longer stain

为生民立命,为天地立心


注: 1. “Till selfish gain no longer stain”源自爱国歌曲“America the Beautiful”,原文为: ‘America! America! God shed His grace on thee. Till selfish gain no longer stain, the banner of the free!’ Those words owed to the Panic of 1893, when many in a suffering middle class lost savings and couldn’t meet mortgage obligations amid shaky railroad financing and bank failures. 2. “为生民立命,为天地立心”源自“为天地立心,为生民立命,为往圣继绝学,为万世开太平。”


Optimists say that America, with its immense diversity, wealth and reserves of human ingenuity and resilience, can take all this in its stride. Mr Trump is hardly its first bad president. He may be around for only four years—if that. In a federal system, the states and big cities can be islands of competence amid the dysfunction. America’s economy is seemingly in rude health, with stockmarkets near their all-time highs. The country dominates global tech and finance, and its oil and gas producers have more clout than at any time since the 1970s.

乐观者认为,美国很是多元,财力雄厚,人才济济,且有着很强的自我修复能力,所有这些问题,都不会成问题,更何况,特朗普也不是第一位这样的美国总统。特朗普可能只能当一个任期的总统,如果真能这样的话,那就最好不过了。美国是联邦体制,联邦系统有问题的话,下面各州以及大城市都有很强的自治性,照样可以发展进步。目前,美国经济貌似康健无比,股市行情已近历史高位。美国在全球科技与金融领域独占鳌头,美国油气公司所具有的全球影响力已是1970年代以来最强。


Those are huge strengths. But they only mitigate the damage being done in Washington. Health-care reform affects a sixth of the economy. Suspicion and mistrust corrode all they touch. If the ablest Americans shun a career in public service, the bureaucracy will bear the scars. Besides, a bad president also imposes opportunity costs. The rising monopoly power of companies has gone unchallenged. Schools and training fall short even as automation and artificial intelligence are about to transform the nature of work. If Mr Trump serves a full eight years—which, despite attacks from his critics, is possible—the price of paralysis and incompetence could be huge.

所有这些,都是美国的巨大优势。不过,这些优势只能减缓美国政治所造成的恶果。医改问题会影响到六分之一的美国经济。政治怀疑与不信任会侵蚀所及之处。若有能力的美国人都对公共服务领域的职位不感兴趣,那么美国的官僚体制将遭受相应影响。还有,总统行事不力,也将带来机会成本。美国各行业的垄断程度,正在上升且毫无节制,自动化与人工智能正在改变就业形态,而相关的教育与培训却相当匮乏。若特朗普能当两任总统,即使有批评但这也是有可能的,那么,政治疾翳的代价将非常巨大。


The dangers are already clear in foreign policy. By pandering to the belief that Washington elites sell America short, Mr Trump is doing enduring harm to American leadership. The Trans-Pacific Partnership would have entrenched America’s concept of free markets in Asia and shored up its military alliances. He walked away from it. His rejection of the Paris climate accord showed that he sees the world not as a forum where countries work together to solve problems, but as an arena where they compete for advantage. His erratic decision-making and his chumminess with autocrats lead his allies to wonder if they can depend on him in a crisis.

危险已在外交领域显现。为迎合华盛顿政治精英低估美国能力这一说,特朗普已给美国的全球领导力带来了永久性的伤害。跨太平洋伙伴关系协议能让美国的自由市场理念在亚洲扎根,能让美国的军事同盟伙伴更为稳固,但特朗普却弃之于不顾。特朗普也拒绝接受巴黎气候变化协定,这样看来,在特朗普眼里,这个世界,不是一个各国协力解决问题的合作场所,而是一个各国获得竞争优势的竞技战场。特朗普决策风格多变,与独裁领导暧昧不断,这让美国的盟友很是怀疑,一旦发生危机,美国能否靠得住。


July 4th is a time to remember that America has renewed itself in the past; think of Theodore Roosevelt’s creation of a modern, professional state, FDR’s New Deal, and the Reagan revolution. In principle it is not too late for Mr Trump to embrace bipartisanship and address the real issues. In practice, it is ever clearer that he is incapable of bringing about such a renaissance. That will fall to his successor.

七月四日,是一个回望美国历史上进行自我革新的好日子,应该好好回望下老罗斯福的改革进取,小罗斯福的新政举措,以及里根总统的革新业绩。理论层面来讲,特朗普现在进行跨党派合作以解决实际问题还不算太迟,现实层面来看,越来越明朗的是,特朗普没有能力让美国再次伟大。那样的任务,只能寄望于特朗普的继任者了。


往期精彩:


哈佛教授谈“伟大”|《全球脑库》:美国曾经因何而伟大,将来又会因何而伟大?

新书速递|《经济学人》:西方自由主义正迷茫于前路在何方

太平洋不太平|《波涛汹涌》:为什么中国要在太平洋里撒钱?

中美关系|《外媒》:中国邀请特朗普女儿、女婿访华

俄欧情怨|《欧洲歌唱大赛》:去年激情满满,今年柔情绵绵

中国故事|《世纪之变》:百年光影,忽闪而过,尽在不言

诗图一家|《在人间》:代际更替,循环往复,永无止境

驻足人生|《幽灵岛》:你存在的意义,完全由你自己定义


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美国政治|《经济学人》:美国理应变更好,现在却变得更糟

美国政治|《经济学人》:美国理应变更好,现在却变得更糟

2017-07-04 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读政治制度是指特定社会中的统治阶级通过组织政权以实现其政治统治的原则和方式的总和。政治制度随着人类社会政治现象的出现而产生,是人类出于维护共同体的安全和利益,维持一定的公共秩序和分配方式的目的,对各种政治关系所做的一系列规定。


奴隶制政治制度是人类历史上最早的政治制度,由氏族社会的管理形式演变而来,在某些形式上带有原始制度的痕迹,神权学说是奴隶制政治制度的理论基础。


资本主义政治制度是最后的也是最高发展阶段的剥削阶级政治制度,其显著特点是分权、制衡、政党制、代议制、普选权和限期任职制,种类繁多较多,就主权归属而言,可分为君主制和共和制;就国家元首、立法机关和行政机关之间的关系而言,可分为总统制和议会内阁制等。


社会主义政治制度是建立在生产资料公有制基础上的、由以工人阶级为首的广大人民掌握政权、对反对社会主义的敌对势力实行专政的政治制度,与历史上所有剥削阶级类型的政治制度有本质的不同。其实质是无产阶级专政,是新型的民主,即占人口最大多数的劳动人民享有民主,并按照民主集中制原则建立起来的政治制度,其领导力量是工人阶级政党,其理论基础是马克思列宁主义。


政治体制是关于国家管理形式、机构设置、实际措施等的具体制度。政治制度是关于国家权力的性质组织、分配、运作等方面的规范法度,主要是指国体和政体的统一。政治体制可理解为局部的微观的政治制度、是政治制度在政治生活过程中的具体化;它受政治制度的制约,也影响国家根本政治制度的实施和巩固。


美国是联邦制国家,政权组织形式为总统制,实行三权分立与制衡相结合的政治制度和两党制的政党制度。美国的国家组织是依据三权分立与联邦制度这两大政治思想而制定,当初在起草宪法时因恐权力过分集中于个人或某一部门将危害人民的自由,因而将立法、司法、行政三种权力分别独立,互相制衡,以避免政府滥权。


American politics

美国政治

A divided country

(Divided States of America)

美利坚分众国

Donald Trump was elected to shake Washington out of its paralysis. He is adding to America’s problems.

美国民众选特朗普本是让他祛除华盛顿的政治疾翳,而现在他却让问题变得更加严重。


JULY 4th ought to bring Americans together. It is a day to celebrate how 13 young colonies united against British rule to begin their great experiment in popular government. But this July 4th Americans are riven by mutual incomprehension: between Republicans and Democrats, yes, but also between factory workers and university students, country folk and city-dwellers. And then there is President Donald Trump, not only a symptom of America’s divisions but a cause of them, too.

七月四日,应是美国的团结日,是用来庆祝13个殖民地团结一致反抗英国统治并进行民选政府伟大实践的日子。但是,今年的七月四日,美国民众却困扰于各种各样的隔阂,共和民主两党之间的自然少不了,而且还有工厂工人与大学学生之间的,以及乡下农村与城镇市民之间的。而美国总统特朗普,不仅是美国各种分野的一个症状,而且也是导致各种分野的一个原因。


Mr Trump won power partly because he spoke for voters who feel that the system is working against them, as our special report this week sets out. He promised that, by dredging Washington of the elites and lobbyists too stupid or self-serving to act for the whole nation, he would fix America’s politics.

特朗普之所以能赢得总统大权,部分原因在于,他声称是给认为美国政治体制有损自身利益的选民代言,正如我们本周专题文章中所报道的那样。特朗普曾承诺,为了美国国家的整体利益,通过把愚蠢、自利的精英及说客从华盛顿清理出去,就能医治好美国的政治疾翳。


His approach is not working. Five months into his first term, Mr Trump presides over a political culture that is even more poisonous than when he took office. His core voters are remarkably loyal. Many business people still believe that he will bring tax cuts and deregulation. But their optimism stands on ever-shakier ground. The Trump presidency has been plagued by poor judgment and missed opportunities. The federal government is already showing the strain. Sooner or later, the harm will spread beyond the beltway and into the economy.

特朗普的办法没能奏效。到现在,特朗普第一任期已五月有余,目前他所面临的政治生态甚至要比他就任时更为糟糕。不过,特朗普的铁杆支持者们的忠诚度不是一般的高,现在依然有很多商界人士相信,特朗普将会兑现其减税、减少规制的承诺。但是,如此乐观的态度,其现实依据却是少之又少。特朗普这位总统,错误判断连连,机会错失无数,联邦政府现在已感受到了压力,恶性后果迟早会冲出首府华盛顿,并蔓延至整个经济体。


From sea to shining sea

从伟大到再次伟大


注: 1. “from sea to shining sea”是一句歌词,源自美国歌曲作家Katharine Lee Bates 于1893年编写的爱国歌曲“America the Beautiful”,并与《圣经》诗篇第72章8节有着一定的渊源【He shall have dominion from sea to sea and from the river unto the ends of the earth." (Psalm 72:8),《圣经》诗篇第72章8节:他要执掌权柄,从这海直到那海,从大河直到地极。】 2. “从伟大到再次伟大”,灵感来自于特朗普的竞选口号“让美国再次伟大(Make America Great Again)”。


America’s loss of faith in politics did not start with Mr Trump. For decades, voters have complained about the gridlock in Washington and the growing influence of lobbyists, often those with the deepest pockets. Francis Fukuyama, a political theorist, blamed the decay on the “vetocracy”, a tangle of competing interests and responsibilities that can block almost any ambitious reform. When the world changes and the federal government cannot rise to the challenge, he argued, voters’ disillusion only grows.

美国民众对政治信任的流失,并不是始于特朗普。过去的几十年间,美国选民一直以来都对华盛顿的政治停滞有所抱怨,包括影响力不断增强的各种政治说客,特别是那些腰包深不可测的资本巨鳄。著名政治学者福山就曾把美国政治衰败的原因归咎于“否决政治”,利益纠葛、职责牵绊,阻碍了任何具有实质意义的改革。福山指出,世界在变,而美国联邦政府却没能做出反应来应对挑战,这样,美国选民的怨气自然就会滋长。


Mr Trump has also fuelled the mistrust. He has correctly identified areas where America needs reform, but botched his response—partly because of his own incontinent ego. Take tax. No one doubts that America’s tax code is a mess, stuffed full of loopholes and complexity. But Mr Trump’s reform plans show every sign of turning into a cut for the rich that leaves the code as baffling as ever. So, too, health care. Instead of reforming Obamacare, Republicans are in knots over a bill that would leave millions of Mr Trump’s own voters sicker and poorer.

特朗普本人也对那种政治不信任起到了火上浇油的作用。美国需要什么样的改革,特朗普心里是知道的,跟明镜儿似的,但做起来却完全是另一回事儿,部分原因在于,特朗普自我感觉非常良好。先拿税改来说吧,没有人不会觉得,美国的税收政策简直是一团糟,到处是漏洞,繁冗复杂之程度不是一般的高。但是,特朗普拿出的改革方案,最终受益的都是富裕阶层,这使得税收政策与之前的一样令人沮丧。医改也是一样,共和党人士不是要对奥巴马医改方案进行完善改进,而是沆瀣一气制定新的方案,而新法案将使几百万特朗普的支持者们病无可医、穷无可诉。


Institutions are vulnerable. The White House is right to complain about America’s overlapping and competing agencies, which spun too much red tape under President Barack Obama. Yet its attempt to reform this “administrative state” is wrecking the machinery the government needs to function. Mr Trump’s hostility has already undermined the courts, the intelligence services, the state department and America’s environmental watchdog. He wants deep budget cuts and has failed to fill presidential appointments. Of 562 key positions identified by the Washington Post, 390 remain without a nominee.

美国的政治体制受害最深。特朗普政府抱怨说,美国的政府机构重复交叉、职责不清,从奥巴马政府时期留下了太多的繁文缛节。但是,特朗普政府试图对“行政主导的政治体制”进行的改革,正在破坏美国政府正常运转所需的要件。特朗普的行为,已经给司法系统、情报系统、国务系统以及环保系统造成了负面影响。特朗普想大力削减预算开支,很多应由总统任命的职缺,到现在依然还空着。据《华盛顿邮报》统计,562个关键职缺中,有390个至今连个被提名人都还没有。


As harmful as what Mr Trump does is the way he does it. In the campaign he vowed to fight special interests. But his solution—to employ businesspeople too rich for lobbyists to buy—is no solution at all. Just look at Mr Trump himself: despite his half-hearted attempts to disentangle the presidency and the family business, nobody knows 45 33872 45 15287 0 0 2067 0 0:00:16 0:00:07 0:00:09 3140where one ends and the other begins. He promised to be a dealmaker, but his impulse to belittle his opponents and the miasma of scandal and leaks surrounding Russia’s role in the campaign have made the chances of cross-party co-operation even more remote. The lack of respect for expertise, such as the attacks on the Congressional Budget Office over its dismal scoring of health-care reform, only makes Washington more partisan. Most important, Mr Trump’s disregard for the truth cuts into what remains of the basis for cross-party agreement. If you cannot agree on the facts, all you have left is a benighted clash of rival tribes.

特朗普的所作所为是有害的,而他做事的方式方法,也同样有害。竞选期间,特朗普扬言要与特殊利益集团作斗争,但是,他的解决办法却是,招募政治说客没能力收买的富商巨贾进入政府,这是哪门子解决办法?!看看特朗普他本人就知道了,对于总统职权与家族业务之间分离的问题,特朗普半心半意,总统职权能伸展到哪儿,家族业务能发展到哪儿,没人能说得清。特朗普曾承诺,要消除隔阂、达成和解,但他碾压对方阵营的冲动以及愈演愈烈的“通俄门”丑闻,使得跨党派合作的机会越来越渺茫。特朗普对专业领域的技能缺少尊重,擅自攻击国会预算办公室对医改法案的评估,这只能让民主共和两党隔阂更深。最为严重的是,特朗普罔顾事实,这会彻底损害跨党合作的基础。若在事实的问题上都达不成一致,那么,相关各方只能像原始部族一样互相厮杀了。


Till selfish gain no longer stain

为生民立命,为天地立心


注: 1. “Till selfish gain no longer stain”源自爱国歌曲“America the Beautiful”,原文为: ‘America! America! God shed His grace on thee. Till selfish gain no longer stain, the banner of the free!’ Those words owed to the Panic of 1893, when many in a suffering middle class lost savings and couldn’t meet mortgage obligations amid shaky railroad financing and bank failures. 2. “为生民立命,为天地立心”源自“为天地立心,为生民立命,为往圣继绝学,为万世开太平。”


Optimists say that America, with its immense diversity, wealth and reserves of human ingenuity and resilience, can take all this in its stride. Mr Trump is hardly its first bad president. He may be around for only four years—if that. In a federal system, the states and big cities can be islands of competence amid the dysfunction. America’s economy is seemingly in rude health, with stockmarkets near their all-time highs. The country dominates global tech and finance, and its oil and gas producers have more clout than at any time since the 1970s.

乐观者认为,美国很是多元,财力雄厚,人才济济,且有着很强的自我修复能力,所有这些问题,都不会成问题,更何况,特朗普也不是第一位这样的美国总统。特朗普可能只能当一个任期的总统,如果真能这样的话,那就最好不过了。美国是联邦体制,联邦系统有问题的话,下面各州以及大城市都有很强的自治性,照样可以发展进步。目前,美国经济貌似康健无比,股市行情已近历史高位。美国在全球科技与金融领域独占鳌头,美国油气公司所具有的全球影响力已是1970年代以来最强。


Those are huge strengths. But they only mitigate the damage being done in Washington. Health-care reform affects a sixth of the economy. Suspicion and mistrust corrode all they touch. If the ablest Americans shun a career in public service, the bureaucracy will bear the scars. Besides, a bad president also imposes opportunity costs. The rising monopoly power of companies has gone unchallenged. Schools and training fall short even as automation and artificial intelligence are about to transform the nature of work. If Mr Trump serves a full eight years—which, despite attacks from his critics, is possible—the price of paralysis and incompetence could be huge.

所有这些,都是美国的巨大优势。不过,这些优势只能减缓美国政治所造成的恶果。医改问题会影响到六分之一的美国经济。政治怀疑与不信任会侵蚀所及之处。若有能力的美国人都对公共服务领域的职位不感兴趣,那么美国的官僚体制将遭受相应影响。还有,总统行事不力,也将带来机会成本。美国各行业的垄断程度,正在上升且毫无节制,自动化与人工智能正在改变就业形态,而相关的教育与培训却相当匮乏。若特朗普能当两任总统,即使有批评但这也是有可能的,那么,政治疾翳的代价将非常巨大。


The dangers are already clear in foreign policy. By pandering to the belief that Washington elites sell America short, Mr Trump is doing enduring harm to American leadership. The Trans-Pacific Partnership would have entrenched America’s concept of free markets in Asia and shored up its military alliances. He walked away from it. His rejection of the Paris climate accord showed that he sees the world not as a forum where countries work together to solve problems, but as an arena where they compete for advantage. His erratic decision-making and his chumminess with autocrats lead his allies to wonder if they can depend on him in a crisis.

危险已在外交领域显现。为迎合华盛顿政治精英低估美国能力这一说,特朗普已给美国的全球领导力带来了永久性的伤害。跨太平洋伙伴关系协议能让美国的自由市场理念在亚洲扎根,能让美国的军事同盟伙伴更为稳固,但特朗普却弃之于不顾。特朗普也拒绝接受巴黎气候变化协定,这样看来,在特朗普眼里,这个世界,不是一个各国协力解决问题的合作场所,而是一个各国获得竞争优势的竞技战场。特朗普决策风格多变,与独裁领导暧昧不断,这让美国的盟友很是怀疑,一旦发生危机,美国能否靠得住。


July 4th is a time to remember that America has renewed itself in the past; think of Theodore Roosevelt’s creation of a modern, professional state, FDR’s New Deal, and the Reagan revolution. In principle it is not too late for Mr Trump to embrace bipartisanship and address the real issues. In practice, it is ever clearer that he is incapable of bringing about such a renaissance. That will fall to his successor.

七月四日,是一个回望美国历史上进行自我革新的好日子,应该好好回望下老罗斯福的改革进取,小罗斯福的新政举措,以及里根总统的革新业绩。理论层面来讲,特朗普现在进行跨党派合作以解决实际问题还不算太迟,现实层面来看,越来越明朗的是,特朗普没有能力让美国再次伟大。那样的任务,只能寄望于特朗普的继任者了。


往期精彩:


哈佛教授谈“伟大”|《全球脑库》:美国曾经因何而伟大,将来又会因何而伟大?

新书速递|《经济学人》:西方自由主义正迷茫于前路在何方

太平洋不太平|《波涛汹涌》:为什么中国要在太平洋里撒钱?

中美关系|《外媒》:中国邀请特朗普女儿、女婿访华

俄欧情怨|《欧洲歌唱大赛》:去年激情满满,今年柔情绵绵

中国故事|《世纪之变》:百年光影,忽闪而过,尽在不言

诗图一家|《在人间》:代际更替,循环往复,永无止境

驻足人生|《幽灵岛》:你存在的意义,完全由你自己定义


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